2020 Election Results And Post-Election Day Discussion Part 2

[GeraldineGrainger]

First time poster here! I'm just looking for some reassurance, I guess. I barely slept last night, and feel like my heart will pound right out of my chest. I don't drink, but I'm considering taking it up. As I said to my husband last night, "I just hate that orange bastard so much." I can't stand the thought of his reelection. I can't.

[Destiny]

Just now, viii said:

When will this election be called? Sometime today? Perhaps later this week? I'm Canadian so I'm not sure how it all works, but I've been following it all day. 

We don't really know. I feel like we might be close to a call in AZ, MI, and WI, so that might well tell most of the tale. My gut instinct is that we will likely know by tonight, but then, my gut instinct would have had President Clinton the Second running for reelection yesterday, so what the fuck do I know?

[SassyPants]

38 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

And they need to figure out what is happening with Latinos (and could start by cutting out the "Latinx" stuff). A huge number of Latino voters are moving right, and under Trump of all people. White people actually moved in the direction of Biden. 

I do think, these results show that any Dem candidate but Biden would have been hammered tonight. Dems gotta figure this out before 2024. 

It looks like Biden has this though. Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada can all be safely called at this point I think. Does anyone know why Maine hasn't been called? Biden has a 12 pt lead with 75% of the vote counted. 

It's not the rout I wanted, but Biden has done well at each state level. 

Pennsylvania very well might go red. Do you guys think the fracking comments hurt Biden that much?

Also seems to be a non-pipe dream possibility that Georgia flips blue. They have a ton of Atlanta mail in ballots still to count and Trump's lead is small. 

I think Trump hammering home “Joe Biden = a vote for Socialism” really resonated with voters in South Florida. My daughter lives in So America and is married to a local, has a family... The countries in Latin America swing from left to right, and they turn on a dime...Trump told those immigrant voters what they wanted to hear, and instilled the fear into them, particularly the Cubans and Venezuelans.

[Destiny]

1 minute ago, GeraldineGrainger said:

First time poster here! I'm just looking for some reassurance, I guess. I barely slept last night, and feel like my heart will pound right out of my chest. I don't drink, but I'm considering taking it up. As I said to my husband last night, "I just hate that orange bastard so much." I can't stand the thought of his reelection. I can't.

There's still a LOT of hope. I totally get it, and I'm doing the same re: no sleep and pounding heart, but seriously, I think there's a really good chance he pulls this out. Don't give up! ❤️

Also, hi! Stay a while.

[formergothardite]

20 minutes ago, Maggie Mae said:

Agreed, I think the Democrats try too hard to be "the good guys." If you look at Florida, the Republicans leaned into the merchandising, the team sport aspect, the "own the libs" bullshit, etc. I suspect a lot of those people (I don't have to suspect, watching them be interviewed on the Daily Show and knowing some IRL) they likely didn't vote regularly if at all before Trump, and they won't when he leaves. They don't actually give a shit about any of the issues. They are the people that buy into MLMs, think they will win the lottery, and love a party. If Dems wanted to win back some of those voters, they needed to simplify the messaging and come up with, like, Biden Beer Pong or something. Embarrassing, yes. 

I read somewhere that the polling thinks they underweighted gender this time around. In 2016 it was education. 

I agree. Trump knows how to get people excited and how to control the narrative pretty well. Even if Biden wins, democrats need to spend the next four years figuring out how to be a better party that actually gets people out to vote. Right now Biden might win not because people particularly like him, but because people hate Trump. They can't depend on that next time. They have to have candidates that can inspire voters. 

 

[nausicaa]

Just now, SassyPants said:

I think Trump hammering home “Joe Biden = a vote for Socialism” really resonated with voters in South Florida. My daughter lives in So America and is married to a local, has a family... The countries in Latin America swing from left to right, and they turn on a dime...Trump told those immigrant voters what they wanted to hear, and instilled the fear into them, particularly the Cubans and Venezuelans.

That's definitely what happened in Florida (it also seems to work well with Vietnamese-American voters), but it doesn't explain what happened with Hispanics in Texas. I don't have any answers there either. 

[Maggie Mae]

3 minutes ago, viii said:

When will this election be called? Sometime today? Perhaps later this week? I'm Canadian so I'm not sure how it all works, but I've been following it all day. 

Results for Wisconsin and Michigan should be in sometime this morning. It's likely they will go to Biden. That means that Trump has to win both PA and Georgia. Georgia expects results today - they had to pause counting last night when a water main broke at their facility in Atlanta. Pennsylvania could take until Thursday or Friday, due to mail in ballots. 

[fraurosena]

1 hour ago, Smash! said:

I’m relieved to read here that it seems the GOP in the Senate can’t go on like in the last four years and block everything except confirming new judges.

Well, as far as I understand it, it will still be up to the Senate Majority Leader to choose what to bring to the floor or not. So if it's McConnell, then the pile of proposed bills will only become higher in the next four years. He is evil. He will do anything in his power to stymie the Dems.

I'm still holding out hope that the Dems could gain a majority. Is that just wishful thinking, or is it still a possibility? Does it all depend on a Georgia run-off?

Also, if the best case scenario is still possible, and the Dems gain the Senate majority, could that mean that they stand a chance of strengthening that majority in 2022?

[viii]

4 minutes ago, Destiny said:

We don't really know. I feel like we might be close to a call in AZ, MI, and WI, so that might well tell most of the tale. My gut instinct is that we will likely know by tonight, but then, my gut instinct would have had President Clinton the Second running for reelection yesterday, so what the fuck do I know?

It's been four years and I still don't understand how she didn't win. 

[nausicaa]

2 minutes ago, formergothardite said:

I agree. Trump knows how to get people excited and how to control the narrative pretty well. Even if Biden wins, democrats need to spend the next four years figuring out how to be a better party that actually gets people out to vote. Right now Biden might win not because people particularly like him, but because people hate Trump. They can't depend on that next time. They have to have candidates that can inspire voters. 

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

Edited November 4, 2020 by nausicaa

[Maggie Mae]

4 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

I'm still holding out hope that the Dems could gain a majority. Is that just wishful thinking, or is it still a possibility? Does it all depend on a Georgia run-off?

There's still some hope in Maine, Alaska won't know for a week (don't look at those early returns, most of the Democrats voted absentee) and I don't know much about the candidates in Michigan or Georgia. NC seems to be close enough that a recount will be ordered, but I don't know if that's a valid reason in that state, either. 

I'm not as optimistic as I was last night but I don't think hope is gone yet. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Maggie Mae

[Destiny]

2 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

I think it's a little of Obama has charisma that Biden doesn't, and Trump has a lot of charisma and hangers on, plus, for the absolute worse, he is never boring. I think that appeals to some people. 

[catlady]

3 minutes ago, GeraldineGrainger said:

First time poster here! I'm just looking for some reassurance, I guess. I barely slept last night, and feel like my heart will pound right out of my chest. I don't drink, but I'm considering taking it up. As I said to my husband last night, "I just hate that orange bastard so much." I can't stand the thought of his reelection. I can't.

You could be me, except for the drinking part; I had two big gin and tonics last night, and the fact that I’m at work this morning is why I’m not buzzed now. I’ve been feeling nauseous since yesterday afternoon. 
I’ve been declaring my hatred for the orange monster almost daily since 11/9/16 when I saw the front page of the newspaper declaring the last election’s results.

while I’m liking the current projections, I just can’t get my hopes up until it’s over.  I’ve adopted a “hope for the best but prepare for the worst” mentality.  

[JMarie]

CNN is reporting Biden is ahead in the popular vote by a full 2 percentage points 

[formergothardite]

6 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

IMO Obama was different just on the basis of it finally not being a white guy running for president and that made people excited. He is also a very charismatic person, Biden is too, but not on the level of Obama. He was a young, good looking, person of color who just got people excited. With Biden it is a really old white guy who has been around forever. Not much to get pumped up about. 

Trump is exciting. He puts on a show. He makes people feel like they are a part of something bigger. He is a con man through and through and he knows how to play people. And in the end, there is a hell of a lot of super shallow people who will just vote for the most interesting person. At least that is what I am leaning towards at the moment as to one of the reasons Trump did so well. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by formergothardite

[Maggie Mae]

5 minutes ago, catlady said:

You could be me, except for the drinking part; I had two big gin and tonics last night, and the fact that I’m at work this morning is why I’m not buzzed now. 

It's 8 a.m. and the only reason I'm sober is that I don't have anything I want to drink, and I have to meet a repair guy at 11. It's 6F (-14C) and my heat refuses to turn on. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Maggie Mae

[nausicaa]

4 minutes ago, Destiny said:

He is never boring. I think that appeals to some people. 

Yeah, I think maybe we (okay, me) lowball how many low information voters there are. Trump may be the quintessential proof of "there is no such thing as bad publicity." He gets more constant attention than any US president ever has, and so has the name recognition that normally helps politicians win. 

[SassyPants]

8 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

Could you tell me a little more about the Latino vote in TX? Was it voter apathy? Did they show up? How much is affected by suppression d/t republican legislative gerrymandering? 

[fraurosena]

2 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

I think it really is about charisma. And youth could also factor into it. Let's face it, regardless of their (un)fitness for office, these two geriatrics must be lacking appeal (at least in part) to the younger generations. 

What we also mustn't dismiss is all the egregious voter suppression of Dem voters. We have no way of knowing (as yet, if ever) how much that affected voters. And, as I've said before, we should not discount that there has been interference with voting machines-- they sure as hell are blatantly interfering with mail-in ballots, so why not the electronic ones?  Let me be clear though. I'm not going all conspiracy theorist here, and I don't necessarily believe that electronic interference actually occurred, or if it did , on what scale, but the possibility is there. Until we know for certain one way or the other, we shouldn't ignore it.

[JMarie]

Maine is going to Biden 

[Audrey2]

7 minutes ago, Destiny said:

I think it's a little of Obama has charisma that Biden doesn't, and Trump has a lot of charisma and hangers on, plus, for the absolute worse, he is never boring. I think that appeals to some people. 

And I think Trump says out loud what a lot of people have said in their heads but don't say out loud because they have to live and work in their communities.

I also think that a lot of younger Boomers and Gen X were molded by Ronald Reagan and turned into Republicans for Life. In order to turn this boat around, we need to engage Millennials and Gen Z more.

[GreyhoundFan]

1 hour ago, Audrey2 said:

We have to remember that the path to the presidency typically starts in the state house, the governor's mansion, and/or Congress. Unfortunately more States have Republican representation in these three areas than what they have democratic representation.

You are so right. Rs have always played the long game, running up huge numbers in local and state elections, so they have a pipeline, plus they have more support when they want to play games, like making voting harder for the average person.

 

59 minutes ago, Maggie Mae said:

I have questions about this delicious looking drink.  

What is on the rim? I've never seen that before. My prefered mimosa recipe has a much different ratio of orange to champagne. ?But wow, I've never thought of raspberries before and this looks amazing! 

Here's the recipe. It's granulated sugar on the rim.

 

14 minutes ago, GeraldineGrainger said:

First time poster here! I'm just looking for some reassurance, I guess. I barely slept last night, and feel like my heart will pound right out of my chest. I don't drink, but I'm considering taking it up. As I said to my husband last night, "I just hate that orange bastard so much." I can't stand the thought of his reelection. I can't.

Welcome! We hope you continue to post here in the political forum. We're normally a pretty friendly bunch.

 

10 minutes ago, formergothardite said:

I agree. Trump knows how to get people excited and how to control the narrative pretty well. Even if Biden wins, democrats need to spend the next four years figuring out how to be a better party that actually gets people out to vote. Right now Biden might win not because people particularly like him, but because people hate Trump. They can't depend on that next time. They have to have candidates that can inspire voters.

Rs have always been excellent at message discipline and keeping their people in line. Dems tend to be more honest and publicly disagree with the party line.

[Audrey2]

Fox News also plays a part. It is the major news source for conservative news, which concentrates their message, instead of the moderate and more liberal networks which still offer choice.

[catlady]

2 minutes ago, Maggie Mae said:

It's 6F (-14C) and my heat refuses to turn on. 

I hope your repair guy can fix it fast and not charge you the equivalent of a firstborn child.  Here is a kitty pic as a distraction:

[SassyPants]

1 minute ago, nausicaa said:

Yeah, I think maybe we (okay, me) lowball how many low information voters there are. Trump may be the quintessential proof of "there is no such thing as bad publicity." He gets more constant attention than any US president ever has, and so has the name recognition that normally helps politicians win. 

I think the name recognition/ celebrity status (gross) play a significant role.  Am I the only one who has second hand embarrassment for Trump and his antics?