2020 Election Results And Post-Election Day Discussion Part 2

[Snarkasarus Rex]

15 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

Wisconsin was just called for Biden. 

And Biden's lead in Michigan just keeps increasing. 

And I read somewhere that some people think NE-2 might be in play? Did anyone else hear this or know more about Nebraska than I do (which is nothing...). 

Who called WI for Biden? Right now his lead is less than 1%, which triggers an automatic recount if certified. 

It looks like Biden did win NE 2 which Hillary did not. NE 2 includes Omaha and Lincoln, the two largest cities. 

[apple1]

11 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I keep wondering--how did Obama easily win two elections so recently? What did he have that Biden is lacking? Was it his youth, his charisma, being a historical first for a presidency? Just the timing of the economy and the wars?

Or is it that Trump has some appeal I can't understand that Romney and McCain lacked?

(This is just my opinion).

Trump has always gone for the least common denominator. If POTUS is like that, then his followers have no need to feel bad for their own bad characteristics or behaviors (whether racism, spite, rudeness, immorality... this list could probably go on and on).

[Giraffe]

20 minutes ago, viii said:

When will this election be called? Sometime today? Perhaps later this week? I'm Canadian so I'm not sure how it all works, but I've been following it all day. 

No, it could be weeks. According to faux, Pennsylvania may not be called until Fri and even then it might be tentative. 

[Audrey2]

1 minute ago, GreyhoundFan said:

You are so right. Rs have always played the long game, running up huge numbers in local and state elections, so they have a pipeline, plus they have more support when they want to play games, like making voting harder for the average person.

Also, since we just had a census, don't underestimate the Republican state houses' ability to gerrymander districts, to concentrate Democrats as much as possible so, even if a state is split close to 50-50 or has a Democratic advantage, state house seats and U.S. House of Representatives seats go red.

[nausicaa]

Just now, Snarkasarus Rex said:

Who called WI for Biden? Right now his lead is less than 1%, which triggers an automatic recount if certified. 

It looks like Biden did win NE 2 which Hillary did not. NE 2 includes Omaha and Lincoln, the two largest cities. 

The Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator said on NBC News that “All of the ballots have been counted" and Biden has won. 

I see they are walking it back now. 

I had thought Biden lost NE-2, so this is good news. I don't see any maps representing this. 

[Destiny]

1 minute ago, SassyPants said:

I think the name recognition/ celebrity status (gross) play a significant role.  Am I the only one who has second hand embarrassment for Trump and his antics?

Rufus and the other gods in their heaven no. I'm embarrassed to be an American every day these days. 

[Audrey2]

Well, friends, it is late start day so I must leave for work now. I look forward to catching up when I get home.

[Destiny]

2 minutes ago, Giraffe said:

No, it could be weeks. According to faux, Pennsylvania may not be called until Fri and even then it might be tentative. 

We might not know about PA but I think there's a pretty good chance we know by tonight with WI, MI, and AZ.

[Audrey2]

Just now, Destiny said:

We might not know about PA but I think there's a pretty good chance we know by tonight with WI, MI, and AZ.

Let's hope we win the others- then we won't need PA according to Yahoo.

[apple1]

4 minutes ago, Audrey2 said:

Fox News also plays a part. It is the major news source for conservative news, which concentrates their message, instead of the moderate and more liberal networks which still offer choice.

THAT. So much THAT.

It's impossible to change what people think if Fox is their only source of "information" and it's on all their waking hours.

[Maggie Mae]

5 minutes ago, catlady said:

I hope your repair guy can fix it fast and not charge you the equivalent of a firstborn child.  Here is a kitty pic as a distraction:

I'm just hoping he or she isn't an anti-masker. Although fast and relatively inexpensive would be nice, too. 

I want to grab the kitty's belly. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Maggie Mae

[Destiny]

Stolen from a friend who did the math: There is a path to 270 without Pennsylvania and we could know by the end of the day. He needs to win Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. (Fox already called Arizona for him and he's already leading in Wisconsin and Michigan)

[JillyO]

Biden is super unpopular among Latinos (not least because the Obama admin really wasn’t that great for Latinos). The Biden campaign pretty much just ignored this weakness, apparently thinking that just saying “look how terrible Trump is” will win them the Latino vote. Clearly that backfired in a major way. Biden made significant gains among white voters compared to Clinton, and had significant losses among Latino voters. Here’s hoping that won’t bite us all in the ass this election. But they (and the entire Democratic Party) really need to step up their game when it comes to convincing Latino voters. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by JillyO

[Snarkasarus Rex]

We won’t know Nevada today. They are in the middle of counting and won’t update vote totals until tomorrow at the earliest. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Snarkasarus Rex

[fraurosena]

This thread is moving so fast that four or five or six new posts are made while I'm typing up my post. I keep missing posts and have to scroll back to see what I missed. 

I just now saw your first post @GeraldineGrainger, and like the others would like to welcome you in our midst. Please stay a while and keep posting. We really enjoy hearing other people's opinions and insights. 

 

 

[Maggie Mae]

Just now, apple1 said:

THAT. So much THAT.

It's impossible to change what people think if Fox is their only source of "information" and it's on all their waking hours.

It's not even Fox anymore. Fox is considered "liberal" these days, because sometimes they publish/air actual segments that show facts. One American News (I think that's what it's called) is the preferred Conservative with a Capital C channel these days. 

It's not even just these media outlets. It's everything. It used to be, even just 10 years ago, if you worked for one of the oil companies or a contracting service, it didn't necessarily mean you were a staunch conservative. But they started putting the conservative radio and news on the radios and tvs at the oil fields, and it becomes a closed loop of information. Back in the early 2010s, I watched in dismay as these companies poured millions and millions into a campaign to eliminate a corporate tax on certain companies. They got their own employees together, sat them down in small groups, showed them some expertly made distractive videos and told them that if a ballot measure passed, they would likely lose their jobs. 

Most people know at some level that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. But using the small group strategy, and allowing them to ask and answer questions, meant that peer groups were able to influence each other to vote the way that the CEOs wanted. They use these same strategy to convince people that they don't want to be in a union. And then they hear that message over and over and over. They hear it before youtube messages, they hear it on TV, on the radio, on spotify, on google music. 

[TuringMachine]

My mom has a friend who's a Trump supporter who is freaking out about Arizona being called. We tried explaining that no electoral votes have been awarded in any state yet, that doesn't actually happen until December, and that not all news outlets have called it yet. Unfortunately I think what little progress we made will be undermined by Trump.

[apple1]

Just now, Maggie Mae said:

It's not even Fox anymore. Fox is considered "liberal" these days, because sometimes they publish/air actual segments that show facts. One American News (I think that's what it's called) is the preferred Conservative with a Capital C channel these days. 

It's not even just these media outlets. It's everything. It used to be, even just 10 years ago, if you worked for one of the oil companies or a contracting service, it didn't necessarily mean you were a staunch conservative. But they started putting the conservative radio and news on the radios and tvs at the oil fields, and it becomes a closed loop of information. Back in the early 2010s, I watched in dismay as these companies poured millions and millions into a campaign to eliminate a corporate tax on certain companies. They got their own employees together, sat them down in small groups, showed them some expertly made distractive videos and told them that if a ballot measure passed, they would likely lose their jobs. 

Most people know at some level that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. But using the small group strategy, and allowing them to ask and answer questions, meant that peer groups were able to influence each other to vote the way that the CEOs wanted. They use these same strategy to convince people that they don't want to be in a union. And then they hear that message over and over and over. They hear it before youtube messages, they hear it on TV, on the radio, on spotify, on google music. 

I agree with this, also.

Mostly, though, I just know too many people (mostly relatives or relatives-in-law) that have Fox on every waking hour. Many of them are retired.

[livinginthelight]

7 minutes ago, Destiny said:

Stolen from a friend who did the math: There is a path to 270 without Pennsylvania and we could know by the end of the day. He needs to win Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. (Fox already called Arizona for him and he's already leading in Wisconsin and Michigan)

That would take him right to 270, by my math. Which means, if one section of Nebraska hadn't gone blue, he would be stuck at 269. (Thank you Omaha!!!!) Praying this scenario happens.

[AnywhereButHere]

Husband is a complete political junkie and stayed up until 3:00 am watching the returns. My nerves couldn't take it, so I went up to bed and wound up trying to watch Ratched on Netflix, which would've been a great distraction if I didn't pause it every 15 minutes or so to get updates on the election. Now I'm at work trying not to refresh the election map every 3 seconds. While there is still hope (unlike 2016), I hate the feeling that the rug could be yanked out from under us at the last second. 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

38 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

Wisconsin was just called for Biden. 

And Biden's lead in Michigan just keeps increasing. 

And I read somewhere that some people think NE-2 might be in play? Did anyone else hear this or know more about Nebraska than I do (which is nothing...). 

538, Reddit, and CNN were all about NE-2 last night, haven't checked today.

I would love to send care packages to all our blue friends in that sea of red.  

[Maggie Mae]

I'm still giggling at whoever called it "Jomaha." 

[nausicaa]

30 minutes ago, SassyPants said:

Could you tell me a little more about the Latino vote in TX? Was it voter apathy? Did they show up? How much is affected by suppression d/t republican legislative gerrymandering? 

There are counties in Texas doing weird things. I don't know how much is apathy or gerrymandering, or other flimflammery. We'll probably have to wait longer for more clear-eyed analysis. 

Trump won Zapata County, north of the Rio Grande Valley along the border by 6 points, 53% to 47%, per SOS results. Last two presidential elections there were Clinton +33 and Obama +43.

Starr County, Texas, the most Latino county in the United States (96%) had Clinton +60 in 2016, but Biden +5. 

@JillyO has a good point about how Biden always was doing badly with Hispanics and they never addressed this enough. (Does anyone know some of the reasons for this? I have some theories but they're not based on evidence or polling.)

This is most pronounced in Texas, but nationally the demographic expectations are off too:

Spoiler

 

 

 

And GOP share of non-white vote, presidential elections (%)

Spoiler

1952: 21
1956: 39
1960: 32
1964: 6
1968: 12
1972: 13
1976: 15
1980: 10
1984: 13
1988: 18
1992: 11
1996: 12
2000: 9
2004: 17
2008: 10
2012: 11
2016: 21
2020: 26 (preliminary)

Now, these are exit polls. So take a lot of this with a grain of salt. But it does look like there's more going on than just "old white racists gonna old white racist." Something else is going on and we have to figure it out. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by nausicaa

[Giraffe]

47 minutes ago, viii said:

When will this election be called? Sometime today? Perhaps later this week? I'm Canadian so I'm not sure how it all works, but I've been following it all day. 

Mods, this is a double post. Can you hide it for me? Not sure what I did... @Destiny

 

 

No, it could be weeks. According to faux, Pennsylvania may not be called until Fri and even then it might be tentative. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Giraffe

[GreyhoundFan]

9 minutes ago, Maggie Mae said:

It's not even Fox anymore. Fox is considered "liberal" these days, because sometimes they publish/air actual segments that show facts. One American News (I think that's what it's called) is the preferred Conservative with a Capital C channel these days.

My boss is a major Branch Trumpvidian. He told me during one of our one on one calls that I should start watching OANN because Faux has become too biased in favor of Dems. I was appalled, thinking how inappropriate it was for him to say something like that to a subordinate. Instead of saying what I would have loved to say, which would have involved some obscenities, I just replied, "is that so?"