Josh Duggar, Admitted Child Molester - Part 9

[justbecause]

If JimBob is trying to appeal the cancellation or claim breach of contract (which does seem likely knowing what we know about his famewhore nature), I assume he's going to claim there was no violation of morality clause because it was 'dealt with'. They did go to a police officer before the statute ran out - it ran out when the case was reopened in 2006, but that wasn't the first time he approached law enforcement. Whether or not he knew the pedophile cop would go easy on Josh because of their close relationship (although it's dubious whether the cop's telling the truth about them claiming Josh 'only' offended once since neither party seems like a paragon of honesty, he did also say he and JB were close friends and had even done some talks together to people wanting to open car lots or something like that, which would probably be fairly easy for a lawyer to find documentation or evidence of) may be irrelevant. They do have evidence in the police report itself that says JB spoke to Hutchens back when the offenses happened but no further investigation was done. So the Duggars may try to claim that as evidence that they did right by everyone, and the children's assurance that Josh's rehabilitation was 100% successful will also probably support that claim.

If they are trying to dispute the cancellation of the show, I'm sure that's the angle they'll take. Not 'we're the purest pure who ever pured' but they'll try to make it seem that they went through the appropriate channels and it was someone else's fault that the case didn't gain traction until after the statute expired.

However, don't you think that since there is an OPEN DHS investigation right now, that the morality clause could be called into question as a re-occuring issue.

I think they will settle. TLC''s parent organization would see no problem at throwing a few hundered grand at this problem if it would go away. That's not a lot to a million dollar corporation. They'd spend more on lawyers. Why not just move on and find another wacked out family. This one has run it's course and they are over. Jim Bob just wants to squeeze what he can out of it.

If they are forming negative problems with advertisers, their goes there money anyway.

[JenniferJuniper]

TLC is not required to keep airing 19 Kids.

The Duggars are not entitled to a TV show.

If the show is not renewed for another season, there may well be contract issues regarding who is owed what. Some work has clearly been done as we've seen footage of Josiah seeking permission from his girlfriend's parents (parents, not just father, which I thought was interesting and perhaps a hint that TLC was hoping this courtship might be a tad more progressive to make things interesting, but I digress.)

As we don't know what the contracts say, and don't even know for sure who has a contract, it's hard to guess who has claim to what, but I can see TLC using whatever ammo they have to not pay Josh, Jim Bob and Michelle anything more. Very much like the HBB situation, only with more players.

It's highly unlikely there will ever be a lawsuit between TLC and the Duggars. They'll likely come to a settlement or discretely arbitrate any disputes over contractual payouts.

[Seven Severn]

I wonder how much money in ad revenue TLC stands to lose. Since 19K was so popular it may have garnered a higher ad rate than other TLC shows. Could TLC sue for lost revenue?

[Hera]

TLC is not required to keep airing 19 Kids.

The Duggars are not entitled to a TV show.

If the show is not renewed for another season, there may well be contract issues regarding who is owed what. Some work has clearly been done as we've seen footage of Josiah seeking permission from his girlfriend's parents (parents, not just father, which I thought was interesting and perhaps a hint that TLC was hoping this courtship might be a tad more progressive to make things interesting, but I digress.)

As we don't know what the contracts say, and don't even know for sure who has a contract, it's hard to guess who has claim to what, but I can see TLC using whatever ammo they have to not pay Josh, Jim Bob and Michelle anything more. Very much like the HBB situation, only with more players.

It's highly unlikely there will ever be a lawsuit between TLC and the Duggars. They'll likely come to a settlement or discretely arbitrate any disputes over contractual payouts.

Agreed. The Duggars have zero grounds to sue for cancellation. I'm sure that TLC, like every other network, contractually provides that it can cancel the show at any time, without warning, for any reason, and the "actors" have no recourse. If there is any disagreement, then it's over money, specifically Jim Bob wanting more. There probably won't even be a lawsuit. People hire lawyers to work this stuff out all the time without a suit ever being filed.

[DeFrauder]

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/tv/news/a41193/funny-or-die-duggar-family-sex-abuse-scandal/

I found a parody of the Duggar interview by Funny or Die. It has its moments.

[Buzzard]

This may not be just about TLC and the show. The Duggars likely had speaking engagements, books, endorsements etc lined up for the rest of the year and beyond. All of that is in jeopardy now and they probably do need an attorney to tie all of that up.

The show is done if TLC wants it done. I think all these attempts at media coverage - people, the youtube videos etc, are feelers to see if ANYTHING can be salvaged. I would expect the Duggars to keep their pie holes SHUT when the SCOTUS rules in favor of marriage equality on Monday. If they are unable to do so, that will be the final nail in their coffin. Their sole hope is that the girls can mainstream, but thats unlikely to happen if they post some bible verse of offer prayers for the future of the country etc.

[mebeforee]

However, don't you think that since there is an OPEN DHS investigation right now, that the morality clause could be called into question as a re-occuring issue.

I think they will settle. TLC''s parent organization would see no problem at throwing a few hundered grand at this problem if it would go away. That's not a lot to a million dollar corporation. They'd spend more on lawyers. Why not just move on and find another wacked out family. This one has run it's course and they are over. Jim Bob just wants to squeeze what he can out of it.

If they are forming negative problems with advertisers, their goes there money anyway.

I think it's possible that an open DHS investigation could create more problems for the family if they were to take TLC to court, but without more information about what exactly is going on, it's hard to say. We don't know what's being investigated or which child is being monitored. All we know is that they (apparently legally) denied entry to a DHS worker. We don't know what the department's findings were or if they showed their IDs (I assume they did) or if they had any kind of a warrant to allow them into the home, or if the police procured one, or if they ever then were granted access to the child they were there to check on. It IS maybe a re-occurring problem with bringing bad press toward TLC, but the public has not latched onto this incident the way they have with the molestations because we have no concrete information about what's going on, and I'd think that makes a difference to whether TLC thinks it's a further threat. The shitstorm is still primarily surrounding Josh, not nearly so much the parents, and barely at all the sisters.

If several of the older sons in the family are starting to court rather than only Josiah, as is sometimes speculated (especially JD), or if they are interested in checking in on Joe at college or something, or if any of the younger boys who are more outgoing are ready to start going to ALERT, TLC may well think that following the married daughters and the young men getting married/doing pseudomilitary work would be interesting enough to follow. It really wasn't interesting when we watched Joe do it and Josiah has been kind of out of the spotlight for awhile, but they may want to try a different angle from the babymaking while still keeping their biggest cash cow on the lineup. They're waffling about cancellation in the first place because the Duggars have consistently made more money and ratings for the channel than anyone else they've got. If they could find a way to hang onto that but cut out the 'problem' members, people would probably still watch. I don't know that Jim Bob would allow his kids to be on a series that didn't really include him, but if they offered something like that and Jim Bob/his children didn't agree to it, then they would seem even more ridiculous for possibly suing.

[DeFrauder]

Has anyone seen this yet? thehollywoodgossip.com/2015/06/duggar-family-worried-josh-is-suicidal-will-do-something-drastic/

It is from a gossip rag, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that this could happen--and happen to more than one family member.

[pamplemousse]

Has anyone seen this yet? thehollywoodgossip.com/2015/06/duggar-family-worried-josh-is-suicidal-will-do-something-drastic/

It is from a gossip rag, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that this could happen--and happen to more than one family member.

I saw similar articles at a couple of other sites. As much of a slimeball as Josh is, I hope he doesn't try to kill himself. If nothing else, it would be awful for Anna and their kids to lose their husband and father, especially so close to the birth of their newest child.

[DeFrauder]

I saw similar articles at a couple of other sites. As much of a slimeball as Josh is, I hope he doesn't try to kill himself. If nothing else, it would be awful for Anna and their kids to lose their husband and father, especially so close to the birth of their newest child.

It would indeed be a horrible shame. I hope the family is bringing in counselors---that TLC is bringing in counselors to help them through this. I don't think it is happening. Maybe TLC is trying but the help isn't being accepted--that could be happening as well. Its terrible all around.

[mebeforee]

Unfortunately, I do think Josh really is at risk right now for depression and all the messy stuff hiding down that rabbit hole, but I still don't believe there's any indication that his family is freezing him out. We know that he's been spending time at the TTH since he returned to Arkansas, and he bought the house there before the molestation news broke (it may have even been related to the unpaid taxes thing, it's possible he was already in trouble with the FRC over that issue and was planning to leave the organization, esp since Anna also seemed a little anxious about delivering their next child so far away from family). The fact that he's not living with his parents doesn't mean anything, since he already had the house. Some family members may be unsure how to interact with him because of all this (especially younger family members who might not have known about the molestations before now), but I think that contact indicates there's no shunning going on. It also seems to be the case in a lot of these fundie families that when the person they're upset with has a child, they try to maintain that relationship for the child's sake. Anna's sister was shunned by her family for awhile, but once her baby was born it seems they regained contact and there were photos of the baby and Suzanna with her parents, and also with the baby and Josh and Anna's kids. And how would they explain to Jordyn and Jenny and Josie that yes, Mack and the others are back in town but they can't play with them because Josh is being shunned? I can't imagine how they would do something like that while maintaining general family harmony, and they're still at least trying to keep up their reputation as a loving Christian family. They haven't completely given up on that yet.

Of course, if he IS depressed already (which seems fairly likely) he may find it hard to feel like they are really giving that emotional support. Sometimes when you're depressed it's hard to see the efforts other people are putting forward, especially if those other people don't really know how to approach the issue. It sounds like whoever this 'insider' was, they were a friend of Josh's rather than the wider family. It's possible his perception of his family's handling of him has been affected by his mental state.

[SoHiDaisy]

Well, I guess I'll be in the minority. I wish I could send him bullets. I'm all for Josh killing himself. You know, intense therapy and prison time rarely cures a child Molester. So a little hard labor and prayer aren't going to do it. I would much rather him be dead and buried and his children and nieces and nephews be safe. Plus, victims are more prone to become abusers. Protecting future victims and preventing future abuse would be worth the cost of a bullet and casket.

[dianapavelovna]

Well, I guess I'll be in the minority. I wish I could send him bullets. I'm all for Josh killing himself. You know, intense therapy and prison time rarely cures a child Molester. So a little hard labor and prayer aren't going to do it. I would much rather him be dead and buried and his children and nieces and nephews be safe. Plus, victims are more prone to become abusers. Protecting future victims and preventing future abuse would be worth the cost of a bullet and casket.

No. It is not unusual for abusers to have suffered abuse in their past, but it is insulting and ridiculous to claim that victims in general are more likely to become abusers.

And rooting for someone to commit suicide? Wow. I don't even know what else to say.

[tapdancer493]

Well, I guess I'll be in the minority. I wish I could send him bullets. I'm all for Josh killing himself. You know, intense therapy and prison time rarely cures a child Molester. So a little hard labor and prayer aren't going to do it. I would much rather him be dead and buried and his children and nieces and nephews be safe. Plus, victims are more prone to become abusers. Protecting future victims and preventing future abuse would be worth the cost of a bullet and casket.

So better for children to be raised without their dad who they love and who really does seem to love them? To be left with the trauma of their dad killing himself? And leave Anna completely alone? I honestly don't understand. What he did was horrible. But saying he should kill himself, and that you'd be happy to help, crosses a major line (for me).

[Trynn]

I can speak from experience when I say that no matter how abusive he is, (and we have no proof he has abused those kids) him killing himself would be extremely traumatic for everyone involved.

I agree it would be better to have him out of the kids' lives, especially f there's a possibility he could reoffend, but that way would be too traumatic for the kids.

[Maggie Mae]

Well, I guess I'll be in the minority. I wish I could send him bullets. I'm all for Josh killing himself. You know, intense therapy and prison time rarely cures a child Molester. So a little hard labor and prayer aren't going to do it. I would much rather him be dead and buried and his children and nieces and nephews be safe. Plus, victims are more prone to become abusers. Protecting future victims and preventing future abuse would be worth the cost of a bullet and casket.

What the fuck is wrong with you? What happened to make you so violent and terrible?

[VelociRapture]

You know, intense therapy and prison time rarely cures a child Molester. So a little hard labor and prayer aren't going to do it.

I trimmed your post because it was, quite frankly extremely disturbing and disgusting - not to mention the Mods have asked us not to quote those portions to make things easier for them.

That said:

What the fuck is wrong with you? What the fuck makes you think that Josh doing something like that would benefit anyone? He has a pregnant wife and three young children who seem to adore him - did you pause to think of them before writing that shit? Do you really think Josh dying would be good for them in any way at all?

There must be something really fucking wrong with you if you honestly believe what you wrote. You're absolutely disgusting.

[ILoveJellybeans]

What the actual fuck?

No, Josh shouldn't kill himself. He is still someone's husband, son, father, brother, cousin, friend...suicide impacts so many people. Also at this point, we do not know whether Josh is still a danger to anyone. The police reports say that all of the molestation happened over a small period of time when he was 14-15, and all of the victims reported that after that, he never did anything to them again. Hopefully there will be an investigation into Josh's family and whether he is a risk, but even if he is, he still deserves to live, and should even be allowed to see his family as long as he is not allowed around kids unsupervised.

[ShepherdontheRock]

As an assault victim myself, I can understand why people have angry feelings towards Josh/any other abuser, but I feel like saying someone should kill themselves is way beyond the pale.

Although I feel way more sorry for the 5 (and any other victims we don't know about) here, it is not my (or anyone else's) place to want someone to end their own life in relation to things that have nothing to do with me.

Yes, Josh should be held responsible for his actions (and in a way the negative media attention and his name being tarred is his punishment) but I think suggesting someone should kill themselves is entirely inappropriate.

[JenniferJuniper]

Suicide is a terrible thing. It may seem like an answer for the contemplater at the time, but it has horrific ramifications for family and friends that can reverberate down through generations.

With that said, I don't believe Josh is suicidal and I don't believe the people in the TTH are shunning him. He appears to be living there. I'm sure he's depressed and anxious about his future, but I honestly don't think he feels that much shame over what he did at 14 - 15. And I doubt he gets why so many people see him as a total hypocrite.

It's not like his family doesn't have financial resources to help him, and Jim Bob owes him that help because he's a huge reason all this came down the way it did. Anna will be a good fundie wife and stick with him, although they may only have another 2 or 3 kids as Lego nights might became less frequent.

If he's being shunned, it's probably by his sisters' husbands who likely had no idea what happened and 1) are pissed that their wives were molested by the asshole and 2) are pissed that the TLC gravy train has most likely left the station and 3) not all that keen on having creepy Uncle Josh hanging around their little kids.

[FundieFarmer]

Don't mind me, I'm just here with some statistics regarding the recidivism rate of molesters following treatment:

"Marshall and Barbaree (1990) found in their review of studies that the recidivism rate for specific types of offenders varied: Incest offenders ranged between 4 and 10 percent. Rapists ranged between 7 and 35 percent. Child molesters with female victims ranged between 10 and 29 percent."

I'm not a psychologist, I just play one on the internetz, but I'd say "rarely cures" is a bit of a stretch when the lowest reported success rate is 65%. But don't take my word for it. Here's a link:

csom.org/pubs/recidsexof.html

[Jessica]

Yeah, ask my cousin whose dad hung himself when he was about Mackynzie's age thinks about losing a parent to suicide.

What a sick person. :pull-hair:

[lookinggoodforjesus]

Someone raped me. He has two children, whom he neglects terribly. He's barely their father anyway so who cares. I wouldn't feel sad if he killed himself. Dare I say, I'd be delighted. The only shame there would be that I didn't get to kill him. I wouldn't feel sad for his kids. This was nearly two years ago so definitely still not over it.

However, I know this guy personally, and I can safely say that he is a bad person. He's an abusive person. He physically attacked me multiple times and threatened me with death on so many occasions that I couldn't count. Thank god abortion is legal and free here, because all this guy wanted to do was impregnate me. He was dead set on me having his baby (that's how he had two kids!). Anyway, details don't matter, but my point is that he is truly a dangerous person. If he died - no loss! In fact, a victory.

So... I kind of understand what they were saying. I don't think it's unusual to wish death on someone who abused you, or someone who you know abused other people. It may not be rational, but it's a reaction to strong feelings. I can't 100% support what that person said for obvious reasons, but I understand the thought process. None of us know Josh personally, and we can't really know if he is just a twisted product of having JB+M as parents or if he's truly a sociopathic person. We don't know.

[Snarkle Motion]

Don't mind me, I'm just here with some statistics regarding the recidivism rate of molesters following treatment:

I'm not a psychologist, I just play one on the internetz, but I'd say "rarely cures" is a bit of a stretch when the lowest reported success rate is 65%. But don't take my word for it. Here's a link:

csom.org/pubs/recidsexof.html

So recidivism is different from reoffending. Recidivism basically means that they were caught reoffending and there was legal/criminal action. Studies examining recidivism examine whether there was a subsequent arrest, conviction, or imprisonment. Josh was able to offend against 5 different people and he would not qualify as an offender since he was never arrested, convicted, or imprisoned.

From the website you link:

Reliance on measures of recidivism as reflected through official criminal justice system data obviously omit offenses that are not cleared through an arrest or those that are never reported to the police. This distinction is critical in the measurement of recidivism of sex offenders. For a variety of reasons, sexual assault is a vastly underreported crime.

Several studies support the hypothesis that sexual offense recidivism rates are underreported. Marshall and Barbaree (1990) compared official records of a sample of sex offenders with "unofficial" sources of data. They found that the number of subsequent sex offenses revealed through unofficial sources was 2.4 times higher than the number that was recorded in official reports. In addition, research using information generated through polygraph examinations on a sample of imprisoned sex offenders with fewer than two known victims (on average), found that these offenders actually had an average of 110 victims and 318 offenses (Ahlmeyer, Heil, McKee, and English, 2000). Another polygraph study found a sample of imprisoned sex offenders to have extensive criminal histories, committing sex crimes for an average of 16 years before being caught (Ahlmeyer, English, and Simons, 1999).

The 65% "success" rate you mention does not mean they are "cured". It means in the follow-up time (5-10 years) 65% did not have a subsequent arrest, conviction, or imprisonment for a sex crime. It does not mean that 65% did not reoffend. Just wanted to point out that the way you were interpreting and presenting this information was misleading.

From the website you link:

[DeFrauder]

No. It is not unusual for abusers to have suffered abuse in their past, but it is insulting and ridiculous to claim that victims in general are more likely to become abusers.

And rooting for someone to commit suicide? Wow. I don't even know what else to say.

I really despise that narrative--that victims of a abuse become abusers. A small minority of abused people turn into abusers. It is outrageous that people believe that victims go on to hurt other people. It victimizes the victims further.

Personally, I blame that show "Criminal Minds" as every episode is about profiling some monstrous criminal as someone who suffered abuse as a child.

The reality is that there are all kinds of heinous monsters that came from wonderful homes and there are all kinds of sweet, compassionate people who were horribly abused, but would never hurt anyone.

And as for protecting future victims of abuse--by SoHiDaisy's logic, victims should be executed before they turn into monsters! I am surprised Gothard hasn't come up with that since he already believes that victims cause their own abuse!