2020 Presidential Election 5: Talk About An October Surprise

[Audrey2]

1 hour ago, nausicaa said:

Granted the diehard MAGAs are waiting until election day, but there is still a gap that is becoming nearly impossible for Trump to close.

After 2000 and 2016, I don't think I'll ever feel safe about an election result again.

[HerNameIsBuffy]

I don't recall if I posted about this yet or not, so ignore me if I have but wanted to share if I haven't...

About a month ago one of the higher ups at my work put out signs for a specific orange politician and against the Fair Tax which is a referendum in Illinois.  They were gone by the time I got to work because one of the most awesome kick ass coworkers ever pulled the signs down without permission and reported this to tptb at our parent company which is based in Europe.

Takes balls to do that when your boss was the one who put them up.

TPTB at the parent company sided with NO POLITICAL SIGNS IN FRONT OF THE BUSINESS WTF WAS HE THINKING and they stayed down.

90% of our work force are immigrants from a country Trump has had in his crosshairs since he came down that damn escalator and I was sick that the people on first shift had to see that as they came into work that day.  We are currently hiring and if signs like that had been up when I was interviewing I'd have cancelled as I already had a job.  If I were unemployed and desperate I'd have been sick at having to interview at a place that would have those up.

Anyway, to my knowledge (which is pretty solid as our location has a small workforce and people are pretty vocal) we have one Trumper and one who doesn't give a shit either way and doesn't understand why people are so worked up over Trump....and everyone else is Team Anyone But The Current Fucker In Chief. 

Anyway - just good to see decent people not allowing this shit to stand and protecting those who don't have the clout to pull the signs themselves.  Yay decency.

 

[nausicaa]

4 hours ago, thoughtful said:

The fact that it is not 0% still astonishes me.

Same. But someone pointed out that some Republicans in closed-primary states may register as Democrats to cast spoiler votes in primaries. 

I'm sure there's some Democrats who do the same registering as Republicans, but I doubt it's as high as 13%. That's definitely indicative of some actual Republicans moving over to Biden. 

But I think it's that independent 60% that shows Trump is really in trouble. 

4 hours ago, Audrey2 said:

After 2000 and 2016, I don't think I'll ever feel safe about an election result again.

Completely understand. To be clear, half of my recent posts on here are just me talking myself off the ledge.

Tedious, math-heavy posts are apparently my preferred form of self-soothing. ?

[Marmion]

4 hours ago, thoughtful said:

The fact that it is not 0% still astonishes me.

Really.

This might explain things somewhat .  

Quote

On primary day, the number of voters changed not only due to the coronavirus spreading across the nation, but also because of party switching.

According to the records, 254,667 voters switched their political party in Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Lake, Brevard and Volusia counties.

Orange County's supervisor of elections, Bill Cowles, says this is a common practice in presidential election years. Independents switched often because Florida is a "closed primary" state, where you have to be in a major party to cast a ballot.

"It's either those that want to participate and select the person for the party they intend to vote in November, or it's the person wanting to vote in the other party's primary so they can try to determine who is going to go against their candidate in the November election," Cowles said.

 https://www.wesh.com/article/voters-switch-political-parties-leading-into-primary-election/31714104#  

Quote

One of the keys to President Trump's Pennsylvania upset in 2016 was the nearly 200,000 voters that had switched parties to vote for him in the Republican primary and general election. 

Now, it appears more Republicans are switching parties than Democrats. 

There's always a theory that Pennsylvanians switch parties to be able to vote in the state's closed primary, which limits voters to cast ballots only for their registered party.

There's no way to prove that on an Excel spreadsheet, but the numbers do show that 28,137  Republicans and third-party voters have switched to the Democratic party since January. In that same time frame, some 18,937 Democrats and third-party voters have switched to the Republican party. 

 https://www.ydr.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/05/election-2020-republicans-switching-parties-red-parts-pennsylvania/4901908002/    

Quote

Trump endorsed crossover voting at a rally earlier this month on the eve of the New Hampshire primary.

"So I hear a lot of Republicans tomorrow will vote for the weakest candidate possible of the Democrats," Trump said during the rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. "Go send a message that Republicans and you can vote for the weakest candidate if you want — don't worry about it."

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/27/could-trump-encourage-republicans-vote-democrats-south-carolina-primary/4886942002/   You see , in an open primary state , such as Ohio is , incidentally , people don't don't pick a party , when they register to vote , but rather as counted as being in the party whose primary they last voted in .  So , for instance , I am a registered Democrat , but only because I voted in the latest  Democratic primary .  Political party affiliation , as you might imagine , is much more fluid in a state such as ours .  https://www.openprimaries.org/states_ohio  

[Dandruff]

I'm Independent and have voted in a few Republican primaries; e.g., for John McCain.  In his case, unlike most others, I would have at least briefly considered voting for him as President until he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate.

I know at least one registered Democrat who said she was going to vote for Trump this year because, while she likes Biden, she loathes Harris that much.  I tried reasoning with her, to no avail.  She's that repelled by the ticket.  I'm hoping that not too many other voters will make the same choice but am concerned.  Harris, I believe, will draw a lot of votes but will also cost Biden some others.  I suspect the gains will outweigh the losses but just don't know what people have been thinking about her recently.  Racism hasn't gone away, nor has misogyny, and Harris (IMO) can be pretty polarizing even aside from those factors.

[SassyPants]

3 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

I'm Independent and have voted in a few Republican primaries; e.g., for John McCain.  In his case, unlike most others, I would have at least briefly considered voting for him as President until he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate.

I know at least one registered Democrat who said she was going to vote for Trump this year because, while she likes Biden, she loathes Harris that much.  I tried reasoning with her, to no avail.  She's that repelled by the ticket.  I'm hoping that not too many other voters will make the same choice but am concerned.  Harris, I believe, will draw a lot of votes but will also cost Biden some others.  I suspect the gains will outweigh the losses but just don't know what people have been thinking about her recently.  Racism hasn't gone away, nor has misogyny, and Harris (IMO) can be pretty polarizing even aside from those factors.

Yep the 2 biggies: racism and misogyny. The 2 Democratic Trump supporters that I know tick off both of those boxes. 

[fraurosena]

It’s just so weird to me that Americans register their party affiliation. That is absolutely ‘not done’ over here. It’s nobody’s business who you plan to vote for. Of course you can become a member of a party, but register? Hell no.

Then again we don’t have those primary thingies here either. The party picks who will be on their list. Voters choose which person on the list they prefer. (And those lists can be looooong. It’s why our ballots are so freaking large... but that’s the only downside, so meh.)

Your political system is so unnecessarily complicated. 

[fraurosena]

This is how absolutely desperate they are to cheat on the election.

 

[Dandruff]

1 hour ago, fraurosena said:

It’s just so weird to me that Americans register their party affiliation. That is absolutely ‘not done’ over here. It’s nobody’s business who you plan to vote for. Of course you can become a member of a party, but register? Hell no.

Then again we don’t have those primary thingies here either. The party picks who will be on their list. Voters choose which person on the list they prefer. (And those lists can be looooong. It’s why our ballots are so freaking large... but that’s the only downside, so meh.)

Your political system is so unnecessarily complicated. 

The people who register their party affiliation here presumably want to, though I no longer see the appeal.  I just vote for who I believe is the best, or least noxious, candidate and have enjoyed being able to choose which primary I want to vote in.  I believe staying unaffiliated also tends to limit political mail/calls, to some degree anyway.  Some of the registered Democrats I know get absolutely inundated with letters and calls begging for money and good luck opting out of that.  Not sure how it goes with registered Republicans, though I'd guess it's pretty much the same.  Then there are the unsolicited text messages the political groups are allowed to send, whether they're wanted or not.  IMO, the system is discouraging people who don't want to be bothered from registering, or staying registered, to vote at all.

If there are no primaries in Holland then how does the party pick their candidates, and how well do the people trust their choices?  How are the various parties funded?  Do you have the equivalent of state/local elections?

[Ozlsn]

19 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

If there are no primaries in Holland then how does the party pick their candidates, and how well do the people trust their choices?  How are the various parties funded?  Do you have the equivalent of state/local elections?

Can't speak for Holland but in Australia the party branches pick candidates, sometimes the local branches get overruled by higher up in the party when they want to parachute in a celebrity candidate they think will get more votes (sometimes this works, sometimes it backfires and people vote for a different, often Independent but local candidate.)  Generally if you want a say in selecting the candidate you need to become a member of that party - the parties are funded by a combination of memberships, donations and some reimbursement from the govt. We also have preferential voting, so deals between candidates as to who will preference who on their how to vote cards can get intense. We have local (council - usually summed up by rates and roads responsibility), state (heath, education and law - plus other things) and federal (rest) elections, but don't vote for positions like police, judges or prosecutors - just politicians. Generally speaking council candidates are very local (election material highlights presidency of the local footy club for example), and in my area mostly independent; state candidates cover a larger area and will have some connection to the area - almost all are affiliated with parties; federal is similar but for some reason we seem to get more nutty independent candidates along with the party ones. 

[fraurosena]

Warning, long and possibly boring post ahead. Scroll ahead if you don't want to read about Dutch elections!

4 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

If there are no primaries in Holland then how does the party pick their candidates, and how well do the people trust their choices?  How are the various parties funded?  Do you have the equivalent of state/local elections?

Parties pick their candidates from within their ranks. The procedures to compile the lists of candidates differ per party. Usually a party's management will install an appointment committee that looks for candidates and then weighs their competencies. The committee will compile a concept candidate list and present it to the party congress, who can make changes if necessary. The party congress will then approve the final list. Some parties have a separate procedure for appointing their party leader, who will head the list, and appoint them by member referendum. In some parties members are given direct or indirect (via provincial party branches) influence on the list ranking (the higher up on the list, the higher the chance of getting voted for). 

I've never thought about trust in the candidates. Entirely new concept... why wouldn't I trust a party's own choices in who best represents them? Trusting a party, on the other hand, is a different question altogether. 

Parties are funded by their members, who pay monthly or yearly contributions. They don't need millions of euros to get people to vote for them. They each get a 5 minute add on tv (aptly called 'airtime for political parties') in which to state their views. The tv stations hold debate evenings or round table discussions with politicians. Parties all have their own posters which go up on special giant poster boards put up especially for that purpose (and taken down after the elections). There are 'voting guide' sites that can aid voters in making their choice (where does which party stand and does it align with your views). And that's about it.
But our whole election process is no longer than about six weeks or so. The rest of the time everybody is too busy running the country.

We also have provincial elections. They aren't the same as state elections though, because we're not a federal state. Provinces are more akin to regions than states. People don't really care that much about provincial elections though. Most people don't even know what provincial administrations actually do. There is more enthusiasm for county elections though, as that is 'close to home' so to speak.

We do not have an abomination like the electoral college, thank Rufus.

More on the Dutch voting system below the spoiler:

Spoiler

A new political party, or party that has at least 15 Second Chamber seats seats, may list up to 50 candidates. Parties with 16 seats or more may list up to 80 candidates. 

To be eligible, candidates must have the Dutch nationality, and be older than 18. A party is allowed to put a 17 year old candidate on the list with the proviso that they will be 18 on the day they are inaugurated into the Second Chamber. 

To complicate things, for administrational purposes the country is divided into 20 electoral districts, which in turn are divided into about 10.000 voting districts (which have about 1000 voters in total), and parties are allowed to put different candidates on their list per voting district. 

Each voting district has a polling station, which is in a public building, and must be freely accessible to all the public (i.e. provisions need to be available for people with disabilities). It is forbidden to peddle, sell or to disturb the peace at polling stations. Our Voting Law strictly prohibits influencing of voters at polling stations.

Every Dutch citizen is eligible to vote when they are 18 years old, and registering is not necessary. Every eligible voter will receive their personal voting pass in the mail at least a fortnight before the elections. A sample of the ballot is added. Voters receive the actual ballot at the polling station after identifying themselves (with passport, ID or drivers licence).

A voting pass can also be delegated to someone else if you aren't able to vote in person. I haven't done this before, so I'm not sure of the details, but I believe you can name the person you delegate on the back of your voting pass, accompanied by your signature, or on a separate form. I do know it's easy to do.

We do have a mail in ballot system, but that is meant for voters who are out of the country at the time of the elections. As we have so many polling stations and there is always one near where you live, there is no other need for them. 

 

[PsyD2013]

 Allen Litchman, the college professor who has correctly predicted election outcomes since 1984, was on Faux last night.  He has predicted Biden will win.  I pray Litchman's streak continues with the 2020 election!

 

 

[fraurosena]

This is a sign of things to come. Very scary things to come...

Read this thread!

Here are images of what happened:

 

[thoughtful]

More on that incident:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/biden-team-cancels-texas-event-155253439.html

[Marmion]

7 hours ago, fraurosena said:

This is a sign of things to come. Very scary things to come...

Read this thread!

Here are images of what happened:

 

 

7 hours ago, thoughtful said:

More on that incident:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/biden-team-cancels-texas-event-155253439.html

This was the same state where some people put out these flyers , when Pres. Kennedy visited .  https://www.huffpost.com/entry/right-wing-wanted-poster-_b_4598090   

Spoiler

 

[WiseGirl]

 

[kpmom]

I'm so sick of the electoral college I could scream.

It cost the country Gore in 2000 (and numerous American soldiers deaths in W's fake war that he's NEVER been held accountable for), and cost us Hillary in 2016 (and more American COVID deaths than we'll ever know).  Plus the chaos and division of the last 4 years.

I fear very much that we might be headed for an electoral winner/popular vote loser again this year.

It was supposed to be a way for smaller states to be counted and represented, but all it does imo is put the election in the hands of a few swing states.  And discounts the will of the majority.

Do the candidates even bother much with visiting and campaigning  the non-swing states?

If it happens again this year that will be the 3rd time in 20 years.  Before that I don't believe it happened since the 1800's.

It's way past time to get rid of it.  But, of course it benefits the party that's in power now, and probably the only way they can hang on to that power.

 

[47of74]

Just got this alert.

Is it too much to hope that this continues through Monday and numb nuts has to cancel his local super spreader event due to the weather?  Asking for a bunch of decent friends.

[fraurosena]

Trump’s reaction shouldn’t be surprising. He is now openly endorsing the use of violence against Biden and Harris.

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by fraurosena

[thoughtful]

Trump, you dick, that song is about the Kansas City Chiefs, not red as in republican.

 

[clueliss]

Tech N9ne is definitely a chiefs fan and that is decidedly a chiefs post.  

[47of74]

And last night the fuck face campaign left people high and cold in Pennsylvania.

I see a possible repeat of this today.

It's still cold and really windy out and those parking areas are about 10 miles from the airport.  I hope his branch trumpvidian followers don't get stranded and decide to tromp through neighbors properties which is something I'm concerned about since we are neighbors to the airport.

[47of74]

A friend told me about this -  some idiot at the airport thought it would be a grand spanking great idea to have people parking on the fucking highway for the super-spreader event.

Area law enforcement shut that down in a hurry about parking on the highway.  That would have been an accident waiting to happen right there given the topography of the area and that you'd have sticks of fuck parking along both sides of the highway.  The airport edited that out right away but I found out about the handy view edit history feature this morning.

[SassyPants]

On 10/30/2020 at 12:12 PM, Audrey2 said:

After 2000 and 2016, I don't think I'll ever feel safe about an election result again.

For the past 2 days I have felt physically sick. I need this election and its aftermath to be over. My stomach is in literal knots. I read articles on line and feel slightly better. I listen to the news, no matter what station, and feel worse. I don’t think this week is going to be fun at all.

[Not that josh's mom]

I have never been this concerned about an election in my 70 years. Besides the fact that Trump is a crazy loose cannon, I fear what the US is becoming/has become. Are we truly a nation filled with racist, sextet, bigoted, stupid people? 

When Trump loses (please God), I fear what stupid things he will do until inauguration. Most outgoing  presidents pardon a bunch of people, but I'm truly afraid he would do such stupid things, the US may never recover.