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2020 Presidential Election 5: Talk About An October Surprise


GreyhoundFan

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I don’t remember who in here recommended the It Can Happen Here podcast, but I’ve been listening lately. Aside from how terrifying the whole thing is, what stands out to me right now, after protests and the pandemic and economic collapse that hadn’t happened when he made the podcast, is that Dems are afraid of what the Repubs will do if Biden wins - no peaceful transfer, right wing militias shooting in the streets etc - but the repubs are just as afraid of left wing reactions if Trump wins. They watched the BLM protests with a very different lens than I did, and to them, the riots and “disrespect for the law” is a sign of what’s to come if their guy wins again. Even if it’s electoral college rather than popular vote, to them any protest against a Trump win is a protest against democracy and America. It’s so so important to win both by a really clear margin. It feels like regardless of how the vote goes, and maybe even after inauguration, there is pain and instability to come, possibly bloodshed. I hope I’m wrong, but the division over there looks so big that I’m not at all confident an election result will change much :( 

The other thing that stood out to me was the division between rural and urban. In the footage of lines at polling places and numbers about how many votes have been cast already, do we have an idea of where this is taking place geographically? 

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An interesting op-ed: "Could Trump end up going quietly? Here are 5 ways that might happen."

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No other human being has had a closer-up view of President Trump’s corrupt machinations than Michael Cohen, so when Trump’s former fixer says Trump won’t give up power even if he loses reelection, it’s worth entertaining.

“There will never be a peaceful transition of power under Donald J. Trump,” Cohen told MSNBC on Sunday, adding that Trump is desperate to retain the immunities he enjoys from ongoing legal threats, including possible prosecution for tax crimes.

We already know Trump hopes to prematurely declare himself winner while invalidating millions of mail ballots, which could unleash a sustained post-election struggle.

But if you squint, you can discern various scenarios in which Trump ends up going quietly — or relatively so. Presuming for now that Joe Biden wins, here are five such possibilities:

Biden wins by a landslide. This is the most obvious: Biden wins in a rout so convincing that there is literally no avenue open for Trump to contest or resist it. This might seem a bit more plausible with new polls finding Biden up three points in Texas and up by one point in Georgia.

To be sure, a landslide win is unlikely. Trump is still narrowly favored in Texas and Georgia. But as Harry Enten notes, Biden is closer to winning places like that than Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, which makes a landslide as plausible as a Trump victory.

If so, there would be no possibility that post-election litigation in, say, Pennsylvania could rescue Trump. And large swaths of Trump’s supporters might accept the inevitable, leaving no support base for holding out.

Biden wins Florida on election night. Because Florida’s voting rules permit mail ballots to be counted well in advance of Election Day, an election night call here is likely.

This means avoiding a scenario in which Trump declares himself winner even as enormous numbers of mail ballots remain outstanding in key states. Since Trump has no plausible path without Florida, it would probably mean a winner is called on election night.

Also: Because Florida has had years of experience using mail balloting, a process often run by Republicans, it will be much harder to contest the result with “voter fraud” lies.

Indeed, Trump himself has praised Florida’s absentee balloting at “Safe and Secure,” because he thinks it will benefit him there (while claiming it’s fraudulent where he thinks it’ll hurt him). Given how corrupt this duality is, it would be poetic justice if this made it impossible for him to contest the results.

Biden wins Arizona and runs strong (enough) in the Rust Belt. Arizona is another state that begins counting mail ballots well before Election Day. As the New York Times notes, it may end up boasting the smoothest election process of any battleground.

If Biden is called winner of Arizona on election night or early the next morning, it might be very apparent early that he’s winning the electoral college. Biden can get to 270 with the states Hillary Clinton won plus Arizona plus only two of the three “blue wall” states Trump swiped. (Even if Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Pennsylvania, he gets there with Nebraska’s 2nd District, where he leads).

It’s plausible Biden could be called winner of Arizona even as early tallies in the three “blue wall” states (where mail ballot counting is expected to be slower or more prone to litigation challenge) show that Biden will win at least two of them no matter what happens with those challenges. Republicans would continue litigating, but at this point the real outcome couldn’t be obscured.

Vote-by-mail goes well for Biden in Pennsylvania. Once Amy Coney Barrett is seated on the Supreme Court, Republicans will try again to overrule a lower ruling allowing for the counting of absentee ballots that arrive after Election Day. (They failed when the eight-justice court deadlocked.)

It’s unlikely that will succeed. But either way, early voting has been so explosive in Pennsylvania — nearly 1.5 million people have already voted by mail there — that it’s plausible late-arriving ballots might not be pivotal.

“It does appear that people are returning their ballots sooner than in 2016,” Michael McDonald, who runs the U.S. Elections Project, told me. “It reduces the chance that those late-arriving ballots would be decisive.”

It’s true that in the state, counting might drag out for days after Election Day. And if it’s very close, Republicans might be able to make up the difference through litigation invalidating mail ballots in small numbers.

But the state Supreme Court just ruled that non-matching signatures can’t be used for this, depriving Republicans of a big weapon. And it’s plausible Biden could win by a sizable enough margin that even if litigation does continue, it won’t make the difference. This is even more true if the numbers of late-arriving ballots aren’t big enough to matter.

If Biden is leading in Pennsylvania, it’s hard to imagine him losing Wisconsin or Michigan, meaning he’d be on track to winning the electoral college.

Fox News behaves responsibly. Fox News’s decision desk is one area of the network that’s reportedly immune to pressure from Trump and his propagandists. So it’s plausible that Fox News might call the election against Trump before he and his supporters are willing to surrender.

Fox News-trusting Republicans are overwhelmingly more prone to believe vote-by-mail will be fraudulent. Which means Fox News has played a major role in helping lay the groundwork for Trump to contest the results even if he’s losing.

The flip side is that, if Fox News’s decision desk handles this responsibly, educating viewers about the realities of Trump’s pending loss, it could badly cripple such efforts in the minds of his supporters.

None of this is meant to sound sanguine about avoiding serious bedlam. All kinds of terrible outcomes in the courts remain possible, as does serious violence.

But there are ways this could end with a relative whimper (and a barrage of ALL CAPS tweets) as opposed to something far worse. And there’s one way to make these scenarios more likely: Vote in enormous enough numbers to make them happen.

 

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WOW...Obama’s speech today in Orlando. He called Trump lazy, dishonest and incompetent, and that he has no plans because he refuses to do the work. So refreshing to hear from a decent, competent, truthful and articulate man. I hope the media blasts that speech for the next week. 

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I sprained my eyes while rolling them at Ronna's crap. Nominating Hillary to be a supreme would cause every repug to have a stroke. Hey, maybe it's a good idea!

 

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Edited by GreyhoundFan
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2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

I sprained my eyes while rolling them at Ronna's crap. Nominating Hillary to be a supreme would cause every repug to have a stroke. Hey, maybe it's a good idea!

 

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She'd make history by being the first First Lady to be appointed to the Court , just as Willard Howard Taft was the first Fmr. President .  { https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/10/scarborough-biden-put-hillary-supreme-court/  ,  

https://www.biography.com/us-president/william-howard-taft  }  

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Is there even a likelihood that the next president will get another opportunity to appoint a justice? Trump’s managed to pick two in one term, but how many of the remaining justices are unlikely to be around in another 4 years?  

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1 hour ago, Smee said:

Is there even a likelihood that the next president will get another opportunity to appoint a justice? Trump’s managed to pick two in one term, but how many of the remaining justices are unlikely to be around in another 4 years?  

Breyer is 82. He was appointed by Clinton. I wonder if he would consider retiring in the next two or three years if Biden wins, ensuring a Dem appointee replaces him. I'm guessing that he would try to hold on if (please Rufus no) Twitler gets a second term.

Thomas and Alito are both in their 70s. They were appointed by the Bushes. I can't see either voluntarily retiring during a Democratic administration. If the nightmare scenario of Twitler getting a second term happens, they may or may not retire during said term.

All of the others are much younger. Barring an accident or medical incident, I think it is unlikely they would retire.

As @mamallama indicated, Twitler got three seats, with Gorsuch filling the seat Bitch McFuckstick stole from Obama, the beer lover filling the seat Kennedy vacated unexpectedly, and the handmaid staining RBG's seat.

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Obama gave a blistering speech in Orlando today. Here's an excerpt:

 

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I can't wait to have a president with whom I disagree on some policies, but respect as a decent human being. I'm so sick of the nastiness coming from Twitler.

 

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On 10/26/2020 at 8:30 AM, Snarkasarus Rex said:

I agree that high early voter turnout is encouraging, but it's not indicative of how Democrats will fare. Yes, early voters tend to be Democrats on the whole, but Republicans make up for it on Election Day.  

I doubt Biden will take Texas, but then again, he doesn't need to.  

 I agree a lot of people are not taking into account how many more Trump supporters are waiting to vote on election day. 

However, nearly 30% of registered Republicans have already voted and 22% of independents. There's only so many registered voters to pull from and that window is closing for Trump. 

There can only be so plausibly large of a "secret Trump voter" contingent. And if he had so many secret supporters, I imagine his donations would be up and his campaign wouldn't be broke. 

Also, the polls have remained relatively constant across most states for the past six months. People know who they're going to vote for. There haven't been any notable third-party candidates skewing the numbers, nor a large contingent of undecided voters, nor any real surprises. 

I'm not judging anyone's anxiety. I am 100% a member of the Stress Eating and Ready to Pee my Pants at any Moment Club. I would also breathe a bit easier if there were more of a lead in Pennsylvania, but I do think it is safe to say this is different from 2016. 

(And I'm sure there are plenty of anti-Trump people like me who are voting on election day because we don't want to risk any of the shit Trump is gonna try with mail in ballots/early votes.)

Edited by nausicaa
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1 hour ago, nausicaa said:

 I agree a lot of people are not taking into account how many more Trump supporters are waiting to vote on election day. 

However, nearly 30% of registered Republicans have already voted and 22% of independents. There's only so many registered voters to pull from and that window is closing for Trump. 

There can only be so plausibly large of a "secret Trump voter" contingent. And if he had so many secret supporters, I imagine his donations would be up and his campaign wouldn't be broke. 

I think for me it’s the assumption that early voter = Democrat that needs to be questioned, because while that may have been true in the past, this year there are plenty of people voting early who otherwise wouldn’t. Those 30% of registered Republicans who have already voted - is there any reason to believe they didn’t vote Trump? They’re not counting the actual votes yet, right, just going by turnout numbers and exit poll data? Your point about donations makes sense, though again, this year has been financially tough on many.

I hope you’re right, and next week will bring the reckoning he deserves. I think deep down I do expect a Biden landslide, but between 2016 and Brexit and the uncertainty and horrors of this year, I don’t want to expect anything until it’s already happened.

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I realize we're still a week away from the election but I checked the weather forecast for the DC area (where I am), plus a zip code each in California, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Looks sunny for all, so far, with temperatures ranging from the mid-20's in Wisconsin to low 80's in California.  That should help encourage voter turnout.

57 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

I'm not judging anyone's anxiety. I am 100% a member of the Stress Eating and Ready to Pee my Pants at any Moment Club.

Speaking of stress and eating, I went grocery shopping this afternoon.  I bought a bit extra because I don't know what chaos might be out there following Election Day, or for how long.  Pandemic is one thing - I'm essentially exercising the same precautions that I did in April - but a mask and hand sanitizer won't help me if a riot breaks out.

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22 minutes ago, Smee said:

I think for me it’s the assumption that early voter = Democrat that needs to be questioned, because while that may have been true in the past, this year there are plenty of people voting early who otherwise wouldn’t. Those 30% of registered Republicans who have already voted - is there any reason to believe they didn’t vote Trump? They’re not counting the actual votes yet, right, just going by turnout numbers and exit poll data? Your point about donations makes sense, though again, this year has been financially tough on many.

Yes, they're only reporting on the numbers of registered voters and exit polls.

I was only referring to the people (not on here, mostly Twitter) exaltingly pointing out how many more registered Dem voters have voted than registered Republicans as if that's a final tally. That percentage will even out a lot on election day and I want people to be prepared for it. 

But yes, I think there are a good number of registered Rs voting for Biden. At any rate, there are a hell of a lot more Rs voting D than vice versa. And it's been clear for a while that most independents prefer Biden. 

BTW, a poll today shows Biden with a 32 point lead with seniors in Michigan. That's pretty unheard of for a Democrat in a swing state. With how the youth vote seems to be blowing up as well, things are looking worse and worse for Trump. 

As for donations: I would give more weight to the financial hardship argument if Biden weren't sitting on a war chest. He broke presidential campaign fundraising records in August and then again in September. I can't find a concrete percentage of how much of that is from small donors, but as of June his campaign was 40% funded by grassroots supporters. ActBlue has raised half a billion (yep, billion with a "b") dollars since RBG died, and the majority of that is in small contributions, not corporate donors. 

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Further proof that fuck face doesn't give two shits about people beyond their ability to feed his narcissism

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Backers of President Donald Trump were left stranded overnight, with several taken to hospital for hypothermia after an Omaha campaign rally ended in chaos.

Hundreds were bussed in to the Eppley Airfield site, leaving their cars in parking lots, but were left wandering up to four miles in the cold after coaches failed to pick them up.

"President Trump took off in Air Force One 1 hr 20 minutes ago, but thousands of his supporters remain stranded on a dark road outside the rally," CNN reporter Jeff Zeleny tweeted at 10:21 p.m. CDT.

Zeleny, who was at Tuesday night's event, described the scene as a "chaotic cluster" as Omaha police officers scrambled to provide transportation for those stranded.

 

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It's amazing how much crap he can shovel in 2.5 minutes.

 

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Today from right leaning Drudge (headlines - upper left corner of the page)

Also there was apparently a giant issue in Omaha about leaving people at the rally out in the cold.

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Finally - my county is reporting that absentee/mail in ballots total ~ half of total votes from 2016.

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1 hour ago, clueliss said:

Also there was apparently a giant issue in Omaha about leaving people at the rally out in the cold.

Fuck nugget probably figured the heat from the book burning was going to keep them all warm...

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As reported in the Seattle Times, the Spokesman-Review (Spokane, WA) endorses Trump in an interesting fashion:
 

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“Donald Trump is a bully and a bigot,” it started out.

Yes, it went on, it’s true, Trump panders to racists. He endlessly tweets conspiracy theories. He denies climate change. And he’s been “cavalier about COVID-19 and has led poorly through the pandemic.”

He’s also “a wretched human being,” the editorial remarkably concluded, adding: “We recommend voting for him anyway.”

 

Link:  Spokane newspaper endorses wretched human being

They summarize that the endorsement is because he's good for business.  Spokane is in a very red portion of Washington state.  If the link is behind a paywall, you might try the Spokesman-Review website to read the whole thing.

 

 

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3 hours ago, CTRLZero said:

As reported in the Seattle Times, the Spokesman-Review (Spokane, WA) endorses Trump in an interesting fashion:
 

Link:  Spokane newspaper endorses wretched human being

They summarize that the endorsement is because he's good for business.  Spokane is in a very red portion of Washington state.  If the link is behind a paywall, you might try the Spokesman-Review website to read the whole thing.

The editor got some pushback calling him an awful human being (well deserved too) and has decided the paper will no longer print unsigned editorials or make endorsements.

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After I got a couple hundred emails telling me what a horrible human I was, I knew I was going to have to read the endorsement. Dread and sadness filled me. It had nothing to do with R’s or D’s or candidates. Who you vote for is your business. These were values that didn’t align with mine or anyone else I know in our newsroom or even across our newspaper.

Back when I was in Boy Scouts, I was never taught that bad behavior is considered acceptable if the economics pencil out. But it was much more than that. A few hours later, a colleague posted that reading the backlash against the newspaper we loved was painful, but not as painful as reading the words that caused it.

With those words simply attributed to The Spokesman-Review, it became clear things should be different from here on out. There are some newspaper traditions we shouldn’t just be OK dumping, we should openly embrace throwing them out as outdated relics.

So we are no longer running unsigned editorials and we are dropping endorsements.

 

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Has a Justice ever been blasted like this before? By a formal request, no less...:pb_eek:

 

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