For nervous Democrats, I'm here to talk you off the ledge!

[dramallama]

59 minutes ago, RoseWilder said:

Ignore 538 everyone. I repeat, ignore 538. I stopped going there about a week ago and I've been 100 times calmer and happier since then. 

I can't decide whether I'm annoyed/angry by the media interest in creating a horse race, Nate Silver's paranoia about getting it wrong, and the Clinton campaign's insistence on referencing Nate Silver in its fundraising emails because it's been causing me so much stress, or if I think it's ultimately a good thing because it keeps Clinton supporters from becoming complacent and the fear/uncertainty may serve as a cattle prod to prompt people to vote who may have skipped it if they didn't think it would be close.  Probably the latter more than the former, I guess, if it ultimately brings a good result.  I AM SO READY FOR THIS TO BE OVER.  And yet also terrified by the possibility of Trump supporter violence afterwards when they take a Clinton victory as proof of the election being rigged.

[Cleopatra7]

17 minutes ago, dramallama said:

I can't decide whether I'm annoyed/angry by the media interest in creating a horse race, Nate Silver's paranoia about getting it wrong, and the Clinton campaign's insistence on referencing Nate Silver in its fundraising emails because it's been causing me so much stress, or if I think it's ultimately a good thing because it keeps Clinton supporters from becoming complacent and the fear/uncertainty may serve as a cattle prod to prompt people to vote who may have skipped it if they didn't think it would be close.  Probably the latter more than the former, I guess, if it ultimately brings a good result.  I AM SO READY FOR THIS TO BE OVER.  And yet also terrified by the possibility of Trump supporter violence afterwards when they take a Clinton victory as proof of the election being rigged.

All of these fundraising emails are terrifying me. I know intellectually that the DNC et al are doing this to ensure that Democrats don't get complacent, but they aggravate my already bad anxiety. I'm wondering if I'll even be able to function properly on Tuesday.

[AuntK]

56 minutes ago, Cleopatra7 said:

All of these fundraising emails are terrifying me. I know intellectually that the DNC et al are doing this to ensure that Democrats don't get complacent, but they aggravate my already bad anxiety. I'm wondering if I'll even be able to function properly on Tuesday.

Yes! That's what has me worried the most! I must be getting at least a dozen of them a day, each of them more desperate than the last. I've donated 4 times now, not large amounts, but I'm deleting any more emails without reading.  I was feeling guilty about doing it, but these emails are making me even more anxious.  I can't handle any more stress!

[RoseWilder]

5 minutes ago, AuntK said:

Yes! That's what has me worried the most! I must be getting at least a dozen of them a day, each of them more desperate than the last. I've donated 4 times now, not large amounts, but I'm deleting any more emails without reading.  I was feeling guilty about doing it, but these emails are making me even more anxious.  I can't handle any more stress!

I unsubscribed from the emails 2 weeks ago, which is probably why I'm feeling so much calmer than everyone else right now. 

I can appreciate what they're trying to do, and I'm willing to overlook the blatant attempt at manipulation because I want them to do whatever gets the job done. But my blood pressure couldn't take it anymore. I donate as often as I can, and unsubscribe to the emails. 

Ignore 538. Ignore the media. Ignore the emails from the campaign and watch these 2 videos on repeat until election day (I've already watched them multiple times): 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591811/-YOU-GUYS-HILLZ-JUST-RELEASED-THE-BEST-VID

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591641/-Clinton-s-final-GOTV-ad-Roar-is-phenomenal

[AuntK]

GREAT VIDEOS!!!! Thanks for posting!

[RoseWilder]

The New York Times is projecting that Clinton will win North Carolina by 6 points: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591940/-NYT-projecting-6-NC-Hillary-win

Quote

Using a combination of polling and detailed data from the nearly two-thirds of North Carolinians who already have voted, the New York Times has put together an unusual projection of the presidential race in that tight state.

What they say:

Already, about 2,892,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,642,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted.

 

[RoseWilder]

More good news: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-polls_us_581e2897e4b0e80b02ca6962

Quote

Hillary Clinton has consistently led in a greater portion of presidential polls in the two months heading into Election Day than President Barack Obama did in both 2008 and 2012. 

 

[RoseWilder]

The polls have been close in Ohio lately, but Clinton has pulled ahead: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592002/-Why-is-Clinton-in-Ohio-This-is-why-Columbus-Dispatch-poll-has-her-up-48-47

Quote

As the bitter 2016 presidential campaign lurches into its final crucial days, the nation’s leading bellwether state remains ripe for plucking by either side, the Dispatch Poll found. The survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, over Republican Donald Trump heading into the final days of the raucous race.

Since that figure is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error (plus or minus 2.9 points), get-out-the-vote efforts will be especially important this year.

One point may not seem like a lot, but Clinton has a fantastic ground game and Trump doesn't have one. In fact, if you recall, he was picking a fight with GOP politicians in Ohio who could have helped him with the GOTV. 

It's been speculated that a good GOTV effort can affect the race by as many as 2 points. 

Good early voting news from Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592016/-Yesterday-Democrats-won-Florida-early-voting-by-26k-Schale-says-NPA-will-break-to-Hillary

Quote

Awesome news out of Florida from Steve Schale and Daniel A. Smith. There’s still one day left of early voting. Biggest EV day thus far for Democrats. We won by 26k votes!

Look at the diverse NPA numbers coming out of Florida and ballots cast so far by folks who didn't participate in 2012. Plus, Steve mentioned in a tweet that women voters are coming out in larger numbers. He also thinks NPA will break to Clinton.

 

[RoseWilder]

Early voting has ended in Nevada and the news is fantastic for Clinton: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592022/-NV-Pres-The-votes-literally-aren-t-there-for-Trump-to-take-Nevada

Quote

There’s a reason why virtually everyone in the know believes the early voting numbers in Nevada spell finus for Donald Trump’s chances of winning there. If the numbers are accurate, there literally aren’t enough votes left for Trump to win there.

 

[RoseWilder]

I just read a really good opinion piece about how the media is deliberately stoking people's anxiety about this race: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1591986/-The-so-called-mainstream-media-has-a-lot-to-answer-for

I really hope, after this election is over, and people see how big the Clinton win is and they compare that to the "the race is so close" bullshit the mainstream media has been peddling that they will hold the media accountable for this. I've already been emailing a lot of media outlets about their inept coverage. I hope more people will be outraged as well. 

This part of the article was particularly on-point: 

Quote

Media reporting in the United States is shaped by capitalistic conflict of interest, pure and simple. As John Stewart and others have noted, repeatedly, the American mainstream media is broken. It is not because of a liberal bias as the right likes to say – bias is not concentrated and any partisan bias in the mainstream media has been demonstrated to play a largely insignificant role. Rather, it is because media outlets are biased toward making money and, during this election cycle, and they have done so by keeping us on the edge of our seats. People who complain that Fox executives make their money by stoking fear are right. But if they think that CNN or the networks or other large, “respectable” media outlets are so different, they are naïve.

So, take heart FJers, this race is not as close as the mainstream media wants you to believe. They are deliberately working to make you feel anxious so you'll keep watching/clicking. 

[dramallama]

1 hour ago, RoseWilder said:

The polls have been close in Ohio lately, but Clinton has pulled ahead: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592002/-Why-is-Clinton-in-Ohio-This-is-why-Columbus-Dispatch-poll-has-her-up-48-47

One point may not seem like a lot, but Clinton has a fantastic ground game and Trump doesn't have one. In fact, if you recall, he was picking a fight with GOP politicians in Ohio who could have helped him with the GOTV. 

It's been speculated that a good GOTV effort can affect the race by as many as 2 points. 

 

Let me tell you exactly how fun it's been living through this election cycle in a red county in Ohio.  I had to unfollow local news stations on FB as well as groups for my city because the comments on pretty much every post are filled with racist, misogynist, disgusting pro-Trump sentiments and anti-Clinton "Hillary is literally the antichrist" conspiracy theories.  I drive everywhere in a sea of Trump yard signs with a car sporting this sticker, this sticker, and this sticker, and am kind of surprised it hasn't been vandalized yet.  I'm so hoping the voters in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati come through and keep the state blue, but I should have known 2008 and 2012 didn't mean Ohio was a reliable blue state quite yet.  There are a lot of angry, poor white people around here, and Trump is singing their song.

[DaisyD]

I stayed off Facebook for a really long time this fall, but after I voted I figured I'd be less likely to get into it with people on my feed. Well, I haven't gotten into it with anyone (save the jackass who responded to my dad's post about Trump getting the KKK nod), but it's not because I'm not tempted. It's because I can tell by what they post that they are morons, and there's no talking sense to morons. I knew Mr. D's best friend (who is actually one of my favorite people) wasn't the brightest crayon when he actually believed Vince McMahon died on camera, but this is just depressing. 

[VelociRapture]

On 11/4/2016 at 0:31 PM, QuiverDance said:

I am so afraid

Same. Pregnancy hormones aren't helping either. I keep telling myself my daughter will be born under either an Obama or Clinton Presidency. For my sanity and health (and my baby's health) I'm refusing to consider any other outcome.

[AuntK]

1 hour ago, VelociRapture said:

Same. Pregnancy hormones aren't helping either. I keep telling myself my daughter will be born under either an Obama or Clinton Presidency. For my sanity and health (and my baby's health) I'm refusing to consider any other outcome.

Think how cool it will be for your daughter to be born under the administration of the FIRST woman President of the United States!  But, even if she comes early, under the Obama administration, still cool. . . and historic!

7 hours ago, RoseWilder said:

I just read a really good opinion piece about how the media is deliberately stoking people's anxiety about this race: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1591986/-The-so-called-mainstream-media-has-a-lot-to-answer-for

I really hope, after this election is over, and people see how big the Clinton win is and they compare that to the "the race is so close" bullshit the mainstream media has been peddling that they will hold the media accountable for this. I've already been emailing a lot of media outlets about their inept coverage. I hope more people will be outraged as well. 

This part of the article was particularly on-point: 

So, take heart FJers, this race is not as close as the mainstream media wants you to believe. They are deliberately working to make you feel anxious so you'll keep watching/clicking. 

That is what I have suspected in my non-journalistic brain, it's good to see that suspicion confirmed.  Of course, it's all about profits!

[RoseWilder]

Good early voting news from Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592194/-Steve-Schale-tweet-storm-Florida-Electorate-more-diverse-Turnout-nearing-2008-levels

[VelociRapture]

2 hours ago, AuntK said:

Think how cool it will be for your daughter to be born under the administration of the FIRST woman President of the United States!  But, even if she comes early, under the Obama administration, still cool. . . and historic!

That is what I have suspected in my non-journalistic brain, it's good to see that suspicion confirmed.  Of course, it's all about profits!

Lol! She's actually due on the 14th - so six days before the Inauguration. I'm pretty sure she'll be a bit early since my siblings, nephew, and I were all born early. So most likely she'll be born under Obama (yay!!!) and get to "witness" Clinton's Inauguration. Which is still really cool to me.

[FakePigtails]

5 minutes ago, VelociRapture said:

Lol! She's actually due on the 14th - so six days before the Inauguration. I'm pretty sure she'll be a bit early since my siblings, nephew, and I were all born early. So most likely she'll be born under Obama (yay!!!) and get to "witness" Clinton's Inauguration. Which is still really cool to me.

Whatever happens make sure you request a presidential greeting! We got ours from the Obamas after a month or two and we did their marriage one too years ago by sending in a wedding invite . The messages are so sweet!

[AuntK]

Early voting is finally over in FLORIDA! I pass one of the polls at least twice a day, if not more, and according to my non-scientific observations of the traffic, early voting turn-out has been phenomenal!

[RoseWilder]

Steve Schale reports from Florida: 

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Quote

And well over 50% of all FL Hispanic early voters have either no voting history, or just 1 of last 3 elex. Among NPA, it's 2/3rds.

The Clinton campaign's strategy is paying off. They were going for the unlikely voters for early voting. Then on voting day they will still have the likely voters left to show up and vote. This is so exciting!

Sleep tight FJers - 48 hours till victory!

[dramallama]

This thread has helped ease my panic significantly.  Until tonight.  Panic and nausea have returned.  Pretty sure I'm not going to be getting much sleep between now and late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.  

 

For Tuesday's election-watchers: a map showing the poll closing times of each state (Eastern time) as well as what time the AP called that state for its winner in 2012.

[RoseWilder]

Good early voting news from Florida: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c

Quote

Florida voters surged to the polls on Sunday, shattering all-time turnout records in at least three of the battleground state’s most populous and heavily Democratic counties on the final day of early voting.

Good news from Ohio: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592418/-OHIO-Early-Vote-Hillary-48-Trump-41-EV-Women-57-Men-43-Women-are-bringing-it-home-in-OHIO

Quote

The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent.

“Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus.

 

[RoseWilder]

More good Florida news. Hillary has passed Obama in number of African Americans who have early voted: 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/6/1592387/-Hillary-passes-Obama-in-total-African-American-voters-who-participated-in-early-voting-in-Florida

 

[AuntK]

I read this morning that 48% of registered voters in FLORIDA HAVE ALREADY VOTED!!!

I think that is good news for the Dems!!

[RoseWilder]

Good news in Pennsylvania: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/7/1592574/-Soon-to-be-President-Clinton-sifting-through-the-data-why-she-will-outperform-the-polls-nationally

Quote

Clinton has 51 percent to Trump’s 42 percent in a two-way race statewide, with her margin swelling to 28 percentage points in four suburban counties that were once reliably Republican, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll conducted Friday through Tuesday after the video’s release.

Clinton’s suburban advantage is 18 points larger than President Barack Obama’s winning margin there in 2012, meaning that to match Clinton’s strength in those counties and in urban areas, Trump would have to dramatically improve on his 11-point lead in the rest of the state…

While Clinton’s strength was long assured in the urban Democratic strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, her fight with Trump would typically be expected to be more competitive in these four suburban counties, which accounted for 22 percent of the state’s vote in 2012. Instead, she carries almost every demographic group tested there, including women 67 percent to 24 percent in the two-way race.

Clinton has been seeking to drive up her numbers with those women, who often play a decisive role in presidential elections, as a way to counter Trump’s strength with white, working-class men. While white men have been the core of Trump’s support, Clinton is even performing about the same as Trump with that group in the suburbs.

 

[RoseWilder]

Good polling news: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/7/1592615/-Final-Monmouth-Nat-l-Poll-Clinton-50-Trump-44-same-H2H-4-way