For nervous Democrats, I'm here to talk you off the ledge!

[RoseWilder]

For days now (weeks) I've been trying my best to talk people down off the election ledge (both online and in real life) - so I'm going to put my daily positive election news here in this thread for those who need a pick-me-up. If anyone else has good election news to share, please post your information too!

Daily Kos has a headline that says there's no tightening of the election:

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016

Hillary's still has a greater than 90% chance of winning, just like the did before.

Huffington post agrees with this. Her chances are unchanged: 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

Last night I freaked out a little bit about the fivethirtyeight site showing her chances of winning dropping so much, but then I started to wonder why he has her chances listed as so much lower than other sites, which have shown her chances unchanged. I did a little digging around and discovered two things: 1. they were wrong during the primaries and have been wrong a lot more than usual lately and 2. they were bought out by some bigger media company some time after the 2012 election (which was when their record of correctly predicting election results started to slip.) In other words, he's basically part of the mainstream media now, and we've seen how invested the mainstream media is in a horse race. 

Additionally, some of the polls that are showing the race tightening were done using different methods than the previous polls. They used a smaller sample, and they spent less time conducting the study (one day vs. three days) - this makes the results much less accurate. This method of polling is also cheaper to produce. The campaigns themselves have more expensive polling done that is generally accurate. David Plouffe had this to say yesterday: 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/30/1588734/-David-Plouffe-has-a-message-for-Democrats-Clinton-path-to-300-rock-solid-Structure-Unchanged

 

[SnazzyNazzy]

Hehehe, you read my tin-foil capped mind. I have a few conspiracy theories running amok in my head atm. I keep saying that I can't wait for Nov. 9th to roll around, but I know there is some fiasco brewing somewhere.

I was going to go vote with my parents today, but totally backed out. I honestly don't trust the system, to keep my vote the same, come tallying time. 

[RoseWilder]

I think that one of the things that Comey was hoping his letter would do was shift the focus of Clinton's campaign. For some campaigns, this turn of events would have thrown them into a state of chaos, they would be defensive and scrambling to figure out how to handle it. But this isn't throwing the Clinton campaign off track at all. They are organized, focused and on message, as always: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1588970/-Hillary-News-Views-10-31-Vision-Downballot-No-distractions-Get-Loud

And we have Harry Reid helping to put the Republicans back on defense: 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/31/1588983/-Harry-Reid-makes-most-serious-accusation-of-the-campaign-Comey-covering-up-Trump-Russia-connection

Harry Reid is retiring this year, so he's not busy campaigning for himself. So he can spend from now until election day shouting this from the rooftops: 

Quote

“In my communications with you and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government -- a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Trump praises at every opportunity. The public has a right to know this information. I wrote to you months ago calling for this information to be released to the public. There is no danger to American interests from releasing it. And yet, you continue to resist calls to inform the public of this critical information.”

Polling is showing no change in people's chances of voting for Clinton: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1588998/-Comey-letter-with-ZERO-effect-on-poll-numbers-as-per-latest-Morning-Consult-poll

The media is reporting on this in a misleading way. They're reporting this part: 

Quote

Nearly all poll respondents ― 89 percent ― had heard at least some about the Friday bombshell. But a 39 percent plurality said it made no difference in their vote. Another 39 percent said it made them somewhat or much less likely to vote for her, but that’s driven by nearly two-thirds of Republicans who say they’re less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee. Forty-two percent of independents said the events make them less likely to vote for Clinton.

But, read the article carefully before freaking out because the people who are reporting they're "less likely to vote for her" were people who weren't planning to vote for her anyway. I repeat: 

Quote

Read it again, folks.  Little effect on vote choices except among those already not likely to vote for Clinton.

 

[sawasdee]

@SnazzyNazzyWho do you think is going to screw with your vote? If you are Republican, they control the voting in most states - they have the Governors and the Congress. If you are Democrat, there is absolutely no evidence of any votechanging . The problem there is in disenfranchisement of voters, rather than vote changing.

FFS, go and vote!

[SnazzyNazzy]

Just now, sawasdee said:

@SnazzyNazzyWho do you think is going to screw with your vote? If you are Republican, they control the voting in most states - they have the Governors and the Congress. If you are Democrat, there is absolutely no evidence of any votechanging . FFS, go and vote!

I was talking about early voting...so take it down a notch.

[sawasdee]

@SnazzyNazzyI'm sorry if I sound overinvested - but this election is going to affect me too. Whoever is in charge of the US has a global impact - which I am not sure many US voters realise. I don't have vote in your election - but its result is sure gonna affect me. So those of you privileged to have vote - for the sake of the FSM - USE IT!*

* Note: I do not ask which party/candidate you support - just please make your voice heard - it is a responsibility of all voters, but perhaps more for those of you in the US - you affect the rest of the world.

 

 

 

 

 

;

 

 

[RoseWilder]

More early voting good news: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1588999/-Ohio-Early-Vote-Surges-in-Franklin-and-Cuyahoga-for-Democrats-We-are-going-to-Surpass-2012-EV

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1588853/-Texas-Votes-Day-7-Weekend-Wrapup

 

[AuntK]

@RoseWilder- Well, bless your heart, (and I mean that in a GOOD way, not a snarky one), I have been whipsawed from an unbelievable high after the 3rd debate to the lowest of lows after that ferret-faced FBI director did his best to derail the election! I have been tottering on the edge for several days unable to contemplate the absolute horror of a Trump presidency!

What makes this even worse is that I am surrounded by Trumpsters among my own friends and family and have no one that I can commiserate with! I cannot, for the life of me, explain how so many of  my family and friends have apparently lost their minds, but it has happened and I don't know if my relationships with them will ever be the same! How can people not see what a total charlatan he is? 

Ok, rant over!  I appreciate this info on this thread; hopefully, it will keep me off the edge for the next 8 days! 

[RoseWilder]

More good news from early voting in Nevada: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1589098/-11-AM-update-Ralston-on-Nevada

 

[EmmieJ]

I hope Comey loses his job after this - he deserves to be tossed out in disgrace.

However, I don't think this misleading "news" will change anyone's mind as to who they will vote for.  I am a little concerned that it might get out some Republican voters that were going to abstain from voting this year, but that will not be anywhere close enough to tip the scales in Trump's favor.

Our mainstream media is heavily invested in making this some sort of competitive horse race, when it's not at all close.  So they lap up any stories that might tend to drop Clinton's poll numbers and increase Trump's poll numbers.  It's a shame what mainstream American journalism has become.  It's even a greater shame to realize NPR is a shill for the conservative media now as well - I cannot listen to their crap anymore.

[Childless]

Truly, I don't think we have much to worry about.  Even if Trump gets all the swing states, he still needs to turn at least one (if not more) traditional blue states red.  That's a tall order and not likely to happen.  The electoral numbers may be closer than they have been the last two elections, but it's a good bet they'll fall Clinton's way.  The election is so politicized and the candidates elicit such strong reactions, that I don't think most people are going to switch allegiances no matter how many groped women come forward or how many newly discovered emails come to light.

[RoseWilder]

9 minutes ago, Childless said:

Truly, I don't think we have much to worry about.  Even if Trump gets all the swing states, he still needs to turn at least one (if not more) traditional blue states red.  That's a tall order and not likely to happen.  

Plus, he's in danger of losing some of the red states. He doesn't just have to get all the swing states and turn a blue state red, he also has to hold on to some of the red states that are in danger now. 

Plus, there's always the possibility that there are more red states on the verge of tipping over into blue states and we just don't know about it yet because there isn't a lot of polling for those states. The Clinton campaign has a 50 state strategy, so they have really organized GOTV efforts in all the states, not just the ones she really needs. She could end up getting a few extra states just off the strength of her GOTV effort and the weakness of Trumps GOTV effort (or I should say the lack of Trump's GOTV effort.) 

[EmmieJ]

Good point about Clinton's campaign and their very organized efforts to GOTV.  Hilary has been planning this run for president for years and years, and she and her campaign are incredibly organized and have lots of money to spend - and spend it they are.  On the other side is Trump - who despite promising to match donors' contributions, has not done so yet. 

"...Trump also hasn’t fulfilled any promises to match, double and triple campaign contributions made on Oct. 1, as promised in a fundraising e-mail his campaign sent that day.

Records show donors gave $165,829 on Oct.1. But Trump hasn’t come close to matching that number, let alone doubling or tripling it, through the campaign filing period on Oct. 19."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trumps-campaign-contributions-short-100-million-promise/story?id=43134673

Clinton and her campaign are giving their all; while Trump is being miserly, and continuing to stiff vendors, including one of his own pollsters.  The guy is a bum and anyone who does business with him at this point gets what they deserve if he stiffs them.  I think Trump knows he's going to lose, but is he ready for the complete shellacking he's going to get?  Not just on election night but in the aftermath, when no one wants his Trump brand anymore?  The only thing he'll have left to generate money is Trump TV, if that ever comes to pass.  And I actually don't care if people still want to send him money via Trump TV, because people that ignorant and bigoted also deserve to be taken for chumps (like those who donated their life savings to the California pastor who said the world was going to end, more than once!)  If you are that dumb, no one can help you.

[AmazonGrace]

I have been quite unusually anxious about this whole mess because even if Trump loses I see his popularity as giving legitimacy to a range of disturbing beliefs and attitudes.

This man has been sued for raping a minor and a host of other things including dishonest business dealings and racial discrimination, gropes and demeans women, hobnobs with white supremacists in an extremely thinly veiled manner, lies a mile a minute, deals with more and more outrageous conspiracy theories, talks like he wants to make an end of the  freedom of the press, makes up lies  about his opponent, sends mean girl tweets about anyone who dares to have a different opinion, seems to love various dictators, undermines democracy, incites fears and violence, insults various minorities, and so on. He doesn't even have a solid policy that can be actually implemented about anything, just empty promises.

Why does ANYONE want him to be their president?

[RoseWilder]

More good news: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1589100/-Trump-vs-Clinton-and-the-polling-aggregators-Clinton-will-win-300-electoral-votes

Quote

With one week to go, it’s pretty safe to say it: Clinton will win, and win comfortably.  Projections from our polling aggregators put her at anywhere from 304 to 341 electoral votes, and all of this variation depends simply on how a handful of swing states turn out.

As I’ve noted previously, Clinton has a base of 236 electoral votes from states not on our swing states list.  This week, I am dropping New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia from the list, and assuming they go to Clinton.  In all three, Clinton leads by 5 or more points, according to our aggregators.  There is nothing (Comey and the emails notwithstanding) to suggest that her lead is about to collapse in any of them. The 37 electoral votes from these 3 states bring her total to 273, 3 more than needed to win.  Now the only question is how big her win will be.

 

[EmmieJ]

43 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

Why does ANYONE want him to be their president?

It is extremely disturbing to see the ugliness that still exists in a certain segment of our population - Donald Trump brought it all right out into the open.  However, the Republican Party has been encouraging and relying on this segment of the population for decades.  Now they are faced with a monster of their own making - and I'm not just talking about Trump.  Many of his followers are people who were just looking for an excuse to behave violently or aggressively towards anyone they deemed "other."  Trump gives them the excuse they need.  I've said it before - In a different time, Trump's followers would have been happy Nazis. 

[RoseWilder]

I just read an interesting article by a woman who is part of the GOTV effort for Clinton in Pennsylvania: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/31/1589163/-Canvassing-in-PA-Front-Lines-Report

This part in particular made me feel good about our election chances: 

Quote

And often, since there are not too many Trump canvassers in many areas, it’s theONLY contact many still-undecided people will have with real-life representatives of our candidates and the campaign. And when that person is kind, thoughtful, helpful, and willing to listen, that goes a long way because often that’s what that person will remember. That interaction—actual substance be damned, they just remember that a nice Hillary person talked to them and listened to their concerns—just might be the drop in the bucket that causes it to spill onto our side. 

Trump appears to have no GOTV effort and Hillary has a great one. The beginning of the article talked about how organized the campaign is. 

I think that's an important thing to remember whenever you get nervous about the election. Clinton's campaign is organized, cohesive and on-message and has a great GOTV effort in place. Trump's campaign is the exact opposite. That will make a huge difference on election day!

[AmazonGrace]

There is something about the demagoguery and the rallies with the talk of how the political opponents should be jailed and the election should be canceled and given to Trump and the press should be sued if they say something not nice about him and the democracy sucks and the violent t-shirt slogans and the harassment of the press and the retweeting of the white supremacy memes and the adoration of dictators that reminds me of crowds who were listening to speeches before violence erupts.

I don't know.. even if HRC wins these people and these sentiments will still be there and it's not going to be good. Something will break.

Someone will get hurt.

[AuntK]

I went to vote, (yay me), and was the 4667th vote cast on that voting machine! There were 2 machines there, there are 7 other voting places in my county which may have more machines and early voting continues through Sunday! And this is only ONE county out of 67 (Florida). If the other counties are doing as well, this is a YUUUGE number of early voters which bodes well for Democrats! (Ok, I'm only extrapolating based on my own experience, but it's all voodoo, anyway, so what the hell, it makes me feel better!)

On another note, went to the gym after voting, (yay me again), had to watch Faux News while on the bike, and apparently there is ANOTHER Wikileak release today that supposedly hurts the Clinton campaign about Donna Brazile's getting debate questions beforehand. I honestly think they have overplayed their hand and no one is going to pay any attention, since none of their "big" stories have really amounted to much.

[GreyhoundFan]

54 minutes ago, AuntK said:

I went to vote, (yay me), and was the 4667th vote cast on that voting machine! There were 2 machines there, there are 7 other voting places in my county which may have more machines and early voting continues through Sunday! And this is only ONE county out of 67 (Florida). If the other counties are doing as well, this is a YUUUGE number of early voters which bodes well for Democrats! (Ok, I'm only extrapolating based on my own experience, but it's all voodoo, anyway, so what the hell, it makes me feel better!)

On another note, went to the gym after voting, (yay me again), had to watch Faux News while on the bike, and apparently there is ANOTHER Wikileak release today that supposedly hurts the Clinton campaign about Donna Brazile's getting debate questions beforehand. I honestly think they have overplayed their hand and no one is going to pay any attention, since none of their "big" stories have really amounted to much.

The whole "she got debate questions ahead of time" assertion is driving me crazy (admittedly, that's a short road). I can't think of a single real question from any of the debates that was a surprise to me. Probably the only questions I didn't 100% expect were the one at the second debate where the person asked each candidate to say something positive about the other (which wasn't really a question); and in the third debate, Chris Wallace's direction to each candidate to make a 60 second closing statement (also not a question). Even those weren't way out in left field, but the rest of the questions were no-brainers. Someone who has been a politician or political observer for more than 10 minutes should have been able to anticipate the debate questions.

[louisa05]

13 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

The whole "she got debate questions ahead of time" assertion is driving me crazy (admittedly, that's a short road). I can't think of a single real question from any of the debates that was a surprise to me. Probably the only questions I didn't 100% expect were the one at the second debate where the person asked each candidate to say something positive about the other (which wasn't really a question); and in the third debate, Chris Wallace's direction to each candidate to make a 60 second closing statement (also not a question). Even those weren't way out in left field, but the rest of the questions were no-brainers. Someone who has been a politician or political observer for more than 10 minutes should have been able to anticipate the debate questions.

Ah, but Trump has been in politics for about seven minutes so it seemed unfair to him. And half of his base has been involved for five minutes so....

[Howl]

17 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Why does ANYONE want him to be their president?

I'm flummoxed as well.   It seems like ages ago, but when past Republican leaders disavowed Trump, and when groups of Republicans wrote letters disavowing Trump and when Former Nuclear Launch Officers Pen Letter Against Donald Trump just two weeks ago....

Basically, they were all saying the same thing: Donald Trump is unfit for office in every way that you can imagine.   And the subtext was the same:  Even though we are Republicans, even though we aren't saying to vote for Hillary, we know she's competent and very well prepared to lead the nation. 

I've seen a few pro-Trump screeds pop up on my fb. Last night one popped up from a distant cousin who I didn't realize was a fb friend.  The concerning thing is the level of viciousness and vitrol.  

[RoseWilder]

Good poling news out of Pennsylvania: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589566/-Good-news-in-new-Pa-poll

[Childless]

3 hours ago, Howl said:

I'm flummoxed as well.   It seems like ages ago, but when past Republican leaders disavowed Trump, and when groups of Republicans wrote letters disavowing Trump and when Former Nuclear Launch Officers Pen Letter Against Donald Trump just two weeks ago....

Basically, they were all saying the same thing: Donald Trump is unfit for office in every way that you can imagine.   And the subtext was the same:  Even though we are Republicans, even though we aren't saying to vote for Hillary, we know she's competent and very well prepared to lead the nation. 

I've seen a few pro-Trump screeds pop up on my fb. Last night one popped up from a distant cousin who I didn't realize was a fb friend.  The concerning thing is the level of viciousness and vitrol.  

If he can't manage to run an efficient campaign (Hillary's campaign is putting his to shame), then how can I expect him to run an efficient and organized executive branch?  And that's not even going into his policies (or lack thereof).

[RoseWilder]

I think the best thing we can do with our nervousness right now is channel it into action. I know two people who are leaning towards voting for Hillary Clinton but are on the fence. I'm seeing one of them today and one tomorrow and I'm going to do everything I can to persuade them to vote for Clinton. I've also offered to take over a few hours of a co-workers shift next Tuesday so they can go vote. 

And right now I'm emailing all the news sites to ask them when they're going to report on Trumps ties to Russia. I"m emailing them both of these links: 

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/veteran-spy-gave-fbi-info-alleging-russian-operation-cultivate-donald-trump

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

Then I'm going to retweet those articles all over social media so as many people that I know as possible can see them. 

We cannot let our nervousness distract us from action. Get out there and fight for Hillary everyone!!!