For nervous Democrats, I'm here to talk you off the ledge!

[RoseWilder]

Good news for the senate: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589620/-Kander-is-closing-fast-in-Missouri-s-key-Senate-race-poll-finds

Quote

GOP Sen. Roy Blunt is locked in an extremely tight battle with Democrat Jason Kander in Missouri's key Senate race, with 47 percent to Kander's 46 percent in a new poll from Monmouth University. [...]

Blunt’s edge in the Missouri race has narrowed over the course of three recent polls conducted by Monmouth University: In August, he had a 48 percent to 43 percent lead, which narrowed to 46 percent to 44 percent in mid-October.

Huffington Post still has Clinton's chances of winning at 98.2%

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

And the chances of the Republicans holding onto a majority in the Senate have dropped to 17%, which is the lowest I think I've ever seen it: 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/senate

Now I'm off to email a few more websites about the Trump-Russia ties. Remember everyone FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT for Hillary! We can do this!

[dramallama]

I had a panic moment last night thanks to Nate Silver and so this morning I did a little electoral nerd-mathing, and if Hillary loses every single toss-up state (IA, OH, FL, NV, NC) that will still give her > 270 electoral votes, which is the magic number.  That helped me  breathe a little easier.  To be exact, she only has to win the states 538 is currently giving her a 70% or greater chance of winning and that would provide 272 - possibly 273 depending on the weird way Maine assigns its electoral votes.

I voted early in Ohio and now my goal is to try to avoid drinking myself into premature organ failure before next Tuesday.

[AuntK]

Ok, I just saw on FB that there are about 7 or so states that allow voters to CHANGE THEIR VOTES if they have a change of heart, like if a rat-faced FBI director on Trump's payroll tries to derail the election at the last minute. WTF???? That is fuckin ridiculous! 

Also, Trump has 75 ACTIVE, OPEN LAWSUITS at the present time. Where is the MSM? Why aren't they all over that? A sitting president can't be running off to court, depositions, or whatever every other day! Why don't they talk about THIS? IT IS A BFD!!

[RoseWilder]

3 hours ago, AuntK said:

Ok, I just saw on FB that there are about 7 or so states that allow voters to CHANGE THEIR VOTES if they have a change of heart, like if a rat-faced FBI director on Trump's payroll tries to derail the election at the last minute. WTF???? That is fuckin ridiculous! 

Have you seen that anywhere reputable? Because I've never heard that before. In fact, I would imagine that would throw our election into total chaos if people could just go back and change their votes. 

[AmazonGrace]

http://www.snopes.com/changing-early-votes/

 

WHAT'S TRUE: Some states allow early voters to change their votes before election day.

WHAT'S FALSE: No states changed their election laws in order to allow people who voted early for Hillary Clinton to change their votes.

 

[RoseWilder]

I just got back from talking to the person who was on the fence about voting for Hillary and she's enthusiastically supporting her now. She thinks the email thing is a phony scandal. Also, she's 18 and she said none of her friends have changed their minds about who they're voting for because of the email thing!

Now for some early voting good news: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589754/-Great-News-Florida-is-now-starting-to-see-a-surge-of-African-American-and-Hispanic-early-voters

And some good senate news: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589752/-Fantastic-News-Eileen-Bedell-Poised-to-Turn-VA-7-Blue

Quote

This race is no longer a longshot.  Appealing to voters’ desires for common-sense solutions (see her on the issues here), Eileen has pulled to within the margin of error of Brat. 

 

[GreyhoundFan]

18 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

http://www.snopes.com/changing-early-votes/

 

WHAT'S TRUE: Some states allow early voters to change their votes before election day.

WHAT'S FALSE: No states changed their election laws in order to allow people who voted early for Hillary Clinton to change their votes.

 

Wow. That's just not right -- it should be: once you've voted, you've voted. There should be no do-overs. We really truly need no more surprises.

[dramallama]

Hillary supporters are fired up! $11.3M online donations in last 72 hours. Campaign Ad Blitz Coming

I got so panicky at the 538 doom & gloom that I donated twice in like eight hours, lol.

[AuntK]

OMG OMG!!! On Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell RIGHT NOW, they have polled early voters and are saying Hillary leads in Florida by 8!!!!  Also 28% of Republicans have crossed over and voted for HRC!

29 minutes ago, dramallama said:

Hillary supporters are fired up! $11.3M online donations in last 72 hours. Campaign Ad Blitz Coming

I got so panicky at the 538 doom & gloom that I donated twice in like eight hours, lol.

I just donated too, even though my Discover card is maxed out this month!!!

If he loses FLORIDA, he CANNOT WIN!

[AuntK]

On changing your vote:

Faux News said it was the following states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, NY, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Hawaii and Louisiana. BUT, LOUSIANA Sec. Of State said NOT TRUE, and Minnesota apparently doesn't have early voting. But It's Fox news, so it's about half right. I think once you vote that should be it, and that should be the rule in all 50 states. Why can't we have the same voting rules, early voting etc., nationwide?

[RoseWilder]

23 minutes ago, AuntK said:

OMG OMG!!! On Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell RIGHT NOW, they have polled early voters and are saying Hillary leads in Florida by 8!!!!  Also 28% of Republicans have crossed over and voted for HRC!

I just saw this and raced over here to see if everyone else knew yet! This is so exciting!

[AuntK]

Trump is trying to distance himself from KKK endorsement. Yeah, good luck with that, Adolph!

[louisa05]

I have given twice this week. Small amounts, though. 

This is from NBC News. The path to 270 is stable: 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/analysis-reality-check-shows-clinton-s-path-270-stable-n676581

[AuntK]

WTF is going on with the FBI? Now they are releasing docs about Bill Clinton's pardon of that fugitive 16 years ago? This is definitely a conspiracy to derail this election and someone needs to go to jail!

[Mercer]

Oh for heaven's sake. If Bill Clinton was running for office, that might be a relevant issue, but it has nothing to do with the election of Hillary Clinton. This is all so transparent. Sigh.

On the plus side, I can't see anyone being very swayed by it. People who would buy into this type of rumor-mongering about Clinton probably wouldn't have voted for her anyway.

[Bethella]

1 hour ago, AuntK said:

On changing your vote:

Faux News said it was the following states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, NY, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Hawaii and Louisiana. BUT, LOUSIANA Sec. Of State said NOT TRUE, and Minnesota apparently doesn't have early voting. But It's Fox news, so it's about half right. I think once you vote that should be it, and that should be the rule in all 50 states. Why can't we have the same voting rules, early voting etc., nationwide?

Michigan doesn't have early voting but we do have absentee ballots. I wasn't able to locate anything in my information packet about changing your vote. BUT we are required to wait until the polls open on election day before we begin processing absentee ballots (i.e. they remain in a signed and sealed envelope). I know that is an absentee voter "spoils" their ballot we can issue them a new ballot, but I don't know if they can ask for their ballot back, then "spoil" it in order to get a new one. That's the only way I can see being able to change your vote here in Michigan.

I would love to have the same voting rules, especially the same primary day nationwide but it's not going to happen. 

[AuntK]

I don't understand how states that don't have early voting manage to get everyone's vote in one day! Florida does not have enough polling places or voting machines; it is logistically impossible for all of Florida's likely voters to vote in ONE day! We have now had early voting for just over a week, 4 MILLION PLUS have voted and there are five more early voting days to go. I really think voting in a presidential election should be standardized across the country, I think there's less room for error and higher voter turnout.  But, I'm not in charge. . .

[smittykins]

10 hours ago, AuntK said:

On changing your vote:

Faux News said it was the following states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, NY, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Hawaii and Louisiana. BUT, LOUSIANA Sec. Of State said NOT TRUE, and Minnesota apparently doesn't have early voting. But It's Fox news, so it's about half right. I think once you vote that should be it, and that should be the rule in all 50 states. Why can't we have the same voting rules, early voting etc., nationwide?

New York doesn't have early voting either.

[RoseWilder]

Good early voting news from Nevada: 

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Quote

The Clark raw vote lead is now about 50,000, which means it is almost identical to 2012, although the percentage is slightly less because of the 150,000 additional voters. Washoe is at about 1,900 -- that's six times better what it was at this time in 2012.

Reminder: The guy writing this vote says that if the Clark vote lead gets to 60,000, or even preferably 70,000 then Trump's chances of winning the state will plummet and without Nevada, his chances of winning the presidency also plummet. 

 

[AmazonGrace]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/heres-the-new-battleground-election-map-its-bad-news-for-trump.html

With the presidential race tightening ahead of the November 8 election, NBC has released its newest version of the battleground map.

As it stands, states likely to vote for Hillary Clinton and those leaning toward the Democratic nominee total 274 electoral votes — slightly surpassing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

[RoseWilder]

Huffington Post currently has Hillary Clinton's chances of winning at 98.4%, with just a 1.4% of Trump winning: 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president

And they're showing the Democrats having a 66% chance of getting control of the senate, a 27% of a tie and only a 7% chance of the Republicans having control. Those are the best numbers I've seen so far: 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/senate

 

[DaisyD]

Well, I'm not a democrat, but I'm certainly nervous. Here's hoping Arizona goes blue, and another one hoping for a break from the two party system. It's clearly broken. 

[QuiverDance]

@RoseWilder Thank you for your peptalks on this thread.  I obsessively check fivethirtyeight and theupshot every morning as soon as I put my hands on my phone.  I am terrified.  I live in Red Country, and even though no one here is vocal about supporting Trump, and I see very few signs in yards, he leads here by about 17 points.  I live in the ONLY COUNTY in my state that did not vote for him in the Republican Primary.  Where I live might skew my perception against reality, but I think this thing could go either way, and that chills me to the bone. 

[dramallama]

1 hour ago, daisyd681 said:

Well, I'm not a democrat, but I'm certainly nervous. Here's hoping Arizona goes blue, and another one hoping for a break from the two party system. It's clearly broken. 

(Bolding mine). That it is, but the way the voting system works in the US combined with the shitty 3rd party candidate options (an anti-vaccine, anti-science doctor and a dude that can't name any world leaders...and those are the least crazy ones out there) that keep getting put up mean that's unlikely to change (to put it mildly) anytime in the foreseeable future. And good luck getting the way the voting system works here changed when it would benefit neither of the two major parties, who hold all of the power.  Sort of like how Congrsss will never pass term limits on itself or stop giving itself raises.  

[louisa05]

22 minutes ago, dramallama said:

(Bolding mine). That it is, but the way the voting system works in the US combined with the shitty 3rd party candidate options (an anti-vaccine, anti-science doctor and a dude that can't name any world leaders...and those are the least crazy ones out there) that keep getting put up mean that's unlikely to change (to put it mildly) anytime in the foreseeable future. And good luck getting the way the voting system works here changed when it would benefit neither of the two major parties, who hold all of the power.  Sort of like how Congrsss will never pass term limits on itself or stop giving itself raises.  

The electoral college system lends itself to having two candidates. 

And I know the next thing everyone will say is that it should be repealed. But I'm not sure that would be such a great thing. Majority vote would mean that only a few major population centers would really matter to the outcome. The electoral college system forces candidates to focus on many diverse areas around the country to get the required votes.