For nervous Democrats, I'm here to talk you off the ledge!

[dramallama]

FiveThirtyEight’s extraordinary prediction model is failing in the Clinton-Trump race — and that’s according to its guru, Nate Silver

[DaisyD]

I've seen a number of Trump ads here in Northern Arizona. Every one of them his just full of more of his horseshit with some very inspiring cinematography. I yell at the tv like a crazy person every time, and I don't usually do that.

[RoseWilder]

Time for a does of mid-morning good news!

Democratic insiders are saying that Clinton's ground game will sink Trump: 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

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That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states, 7 of which are seeing significant early- and absentee-voting operations. In those seven states where large numbers of voters are expected to cast their ballots before Election Day — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin — more than three-quarters of Democrats think their party has done a better job turning out key voters thus far.

There's really good early voting news from Nevada: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/3/1590991/-Ralston-Cake-is-Baked-in-NV-per-Early-Voting-Today

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Jon Ralston, uber-pundit of NV, has been saying that EV numbers and D advantage were tracking closely w/ the pace of ‘12, and that if D advantage in Clark County (Vegas, and 2/3 of total state pop) hit 60K by today, Hill would have built her cushion against any likely Trump surge on the 8th.  Today they blew past 60k, with one more EV day, tomorrow—always the heaviest.  So I give you Jon, just now: twitter.com/…   He also has Hill camp feeding him internals, which bolsters his confidence that there will be no immense R surge on Tues.  Next biggest county is Washoe (Reno), traditionally R but D’s maintain a small lead there this year too.

Also good news for Arizona (which Trump desperately needs to hold on to): 

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/

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Registered Republican ballots made up the biggest share of votes cast statewide, but Democrats cut that advantage through Nov. 1.

Four years ago, Republicans had a 10 percentage-point lead over Democrats in early balloting at the end of October. This year, that lead was 6 percentage points.

Being ahead by six percentage points means he will probably still win the state (unless something massive changes on November 8th), but this still gives me hope for other states, that Republicans might not be showing up in as big of numbers this year. 

Good early voting news from Texas: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1588857/-Texas-Votes-Day-11-How-high-can-we-go

They're seeing record turn-out. Their secretary of state doesn't keep track of early voting by party affiliation, but that article also helps explain why high turnout tends to favor Democrats: 

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Push comes to shove: 2008 and 2012 had very similar results: Pres Obama lost by around 1.2M votes. 

Other demographic info: both White and Black voters came out at similar rates: 60%, plus or minus.  However, Latinos turned out at 28%, and Asians at 24%.  If we see significantly higher turnout, we have a VERY good chance it’ll come from these areas.  If we can get Latino vote to 48% (still 10% under Whites), that would net us another 1.35M votes, just from Latinos...which happens to be higher than the 2012 margin.  TexDude50 has a great diary about polling screens in TX here.

Yes, I know Latinos won’t all vote for Sec. Clinton.  Let’s say they do at a slightly lower rate than the Latino Decisions poll: 75/25. NONE vote for 3rd parties.  That would STILL net us 1M of the 1.35 — for a 700K vote gain.  All of a sudden, we’re just 500K under 2012.  With the sort of GOP defections polls have shown for other races — anywhere from 13% to 28% — this race is winnable, if we turn out.

And here's a great article explaining why Nate Silver's predictions are wrong

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Hillary has this. It's done.  Finis. Stick a fork in Trump.

Nate, IMO is gun-shy after his over exaggeration of Trump’s nomination chances.  He’s looking at this race the way my dad watches New Orleans Saints games… looking at the negative and ignoring reality. What he’s basically saying is Trump has a chance at running the table on all the razor thin close swing states and I’m here to tell you that that’s impossible absent a wave election.

: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591057/-As-someone-with-a-better-record-than-Nate-and-the-2008-KOS-Prediction-Champ-I-saw-he-s-wrong

 

[AuntK]

Saw a new Trump ad yesterday featuring Rudy Guiliani.  Where I live, in North Florida, Rudy Guiliani carries about as much weight in political matters as my 8-year-old niece, that is, if the viewers actually recognize who he is, since he doesn't identify himself!  I'm so happy that the douchebag has such idiots running his campaign - great idea guys - let's run a Rudy ad in North Florida -- that'll get the voters in!!!  LOL!!!

[RoseWilder]

There's a lot of new positive Clinton polling out. Also there's good news for the senate: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591151/-PPP-Slew-of-good-results-for-Clinton-Senate

And the Democrats are now ahead in early voting in Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591097/--Florida-As-of-this-morning-Democrats-have-overtaken-Republicans-in-votes-cast-so-far

[Cartmann99]

1 hour ago, daisyd681 said:

I've seen a number of Trump ads here in Northern Arizona. Every one of them his just full of more of his horseshit with some very inspiring cinematography. I yell at the tv like a crazy person every time, and I don't usually do that.

A giant pile of poop, with one of his stupid hats on top popped into my head. It made me smile, which is dearly needed this morning.

Thank you for that.

[QuiverDance]

I am so afraid

[Howl]

I'm starting to feel like a long time ago, we thought we'd have an actual, genuine election, but Trump and his minions proxies toadies (I'm talking about you, Kellyanne) remind me of the waiters and maitre d' on the Monty Python Genuine Bavarian Restaurant skit, 

However, I'm filled with very low grade anxiety, so I think I'm a gonna watch cute cat videos and Monty Python skits until Tuesday night. 

And maybe some SNL Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer and The Californians. 

[RoseWilder]

2 hours ago, QuiverDance said:

I am so afraid

My best advice is to avoid mainstream media. Even left-leaning places like Huffington Post have resorted to distorting the news so they can whip people up into a hysterical frenzy and get them to keep clicking. 

The news is good for Hillary. Really good. I've been wading through a lot of different sources and the reputable polls and early voting information is really good for the Democrats. 

 

Good news for Nevada early voting: 

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

 

[JoyfulSel]

23 hours ago, HeathenBlondie said:

I'll probably be spending election night eating popcorn and watching Impractical Jokers to keep my sanity until the results are in.

Same! And add me to the chorus of people thankful for this thread, it's keeping me sane to be honest. I'm sick of my local news constantly putting Trump so close to Clinton since the second batch of e-mail nonsense.

Great news about more of the government in general turning blue, too. I'm in NJ, so we generally always go Democrat, but I'm hoping to see even more Republican seats turn Democrat.

[HeathenBlondie]

7 minutes ago, JoyfulSel said:

Same! And add me to the chorus of people thankful for this thread, it's keeping me sane to be honest. I'm sick of my local news constantly putting Trump so close to Clinton since the second batch of e-mail nonsense.

Great news about more of the government in general turning blue, too. I'm in NJ, so we generally always go Democrat, but I'm hoping to see even more Republican seats turn Democrat.

Yes! My local paper is so blatantly Republican as well it's ridiculous.  I can't even stand reading it anymore. 

Good for your state and hopefully more turn blue there. I'm in MI and hoping the district House seat turns back to blue again. Unfortunately, I'm betting my county will vote red as there are so many Trump fans around. Bleh.

[RoseWilder]

More good news!

There are 5 states that keep track of early voting by gender, and in all 5 of them women voted in higher numbers than men are relative to 2012: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591326/-This-is-awesome-Women-voting-at-higher-rates-than-men-relative-to-2012-in-EVERY-STATE

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What this means is that, in every single state where the gender breakdown of early voting is available, women are voting at higher rates than men are relative to 2012. Every single one.

That is outstanding news for Hillary Clinton and Team Blue. Given that women skew Democratic, it strongly suggests that the early vote looks even better for Democrats than it seems.

 

Good news from Colorado early voting: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591421/-Colorado-Early-Vote-Numbers-by-Day-4-November-4

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Total 2012 turnout was about 70%, and it seems likely that it will be exceeded.  Whether or not the Republican early votes catch up to the Democratic ones, it doesn’t look like they will get to the 1.8% margin that they had in 2012.  As a reminder, Obama still beat Romney by 5.4% in 2012 despite that 1.8% Republican lead in early votes.  I would say Colorado looks promising. Given the slightly better Democratic turnout, at the moment I would predict about a 6-7% win for Hillary! 

 

[RoseWilder]

Now let's allow Daily Kos to talk us all off the ledge: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591276/-No-I-don-t-think-Donald-Trump-will-win-because-the-polls-show-he-s-losing

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With increasing frequency in recent weeks, friends and family members have been coming to me for reassurance, asking me with trepidation in their voices, “Donald Trump's not going to win, right?” I understand why they fear a Trump presidency, because I share those same fears myself.

But a Trump victory, as catastrophic as it would be, remains very unlikely, and for a simple reason: The polls strongly favor Hillary Clinton.

As of Friday, the Daily Kos Elections forecast gives Clinton a 91 percent chance of winning, and indeed, her odds have been in the 90s for an entire month straight. Our forecast is based on a mathematical model that takes in all of the state-level polls—literally thousands of them—and uses them to simulate the election outcome. There’s no magic or wizardry involved, just some very straightforward math. And that math keeps saying Clinton is very likely to win.

I trust the math because the man behind our model, data scientist Drew Linzer, had the most accurate forecast of the 2012 elections, predicting Barack Obama’s exact electoral college margin. Then he did it again, producing the most accurate forecast of the 2014 Senate elections. Drew, in other words,  got it right in a good year for Democrats, and he got it right in an awful year for Democrats. I have every reason to believe Drew’s model is going to be right again.

And here's the critical thing: In 2012, most polls underestimated Democratic performance, while in 2014, they overestimated it. But despite those systemic failings, Drew's models still got the outcomes right, because those models incorporate as much polling data as possible. And when you aggregate polling data, you’re much less likely to be misled by outliers—polls that stick out from the rest like proverbial sore thumbs.

But pundits love those outliers, because they quickly tire of telling the same story. And when those outliers point toward a close contest, pundits love them even more, because they crave a competitive contest, whether one exists or not. After all, that’s what sells papers and drives clicks.

I’m here to tell you, though, that the race is a lot more staid than most reporting would have it. And we aren't the only ones saying so: Nearly every other mainstream forecaster agrees that Clinton is the strong favorite, even the most pessimistic analyst still thinks she’s winning. This doesn’t mean that Trump can't win, because there are no guarantees in politics. But it does mean he very probably won’t.

I say all this to calm some jitters, to push back against bad punditry, and help spread the gospel of poll aggregation. But I do not say any of this to encourage complacency—absolutely not. If you haven’t voted yet, go and vote now if you can, or on Election Day if you can’t vote early, and make sure your friends do the same. If you're planning to volunteer, get out there right away and help the Democrats running in your area, or phonebank for those elsewhere. Whatever you do, don’t let up until the polls close Tuesday—but don’t panic, either.

 

[RoseWilder]

A little more happy news before bed: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591409/-CO-Pres-MI-Pres-VA-Pres-Hillary-out-to-HUGE-early-voting-leads-in-Colorado-and-Virginia

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Hillary Clinton’s strategy to build up an early-voting firewall may be paying off. Public Policy Polling just released its last batch of polls for this cycle, with polls from Michigan, Virginia and Colorado.

All three polls are absolutely devastating for Donald Trump. Hillary leads 50-45 in Colorado, 50-44 in Michigan, and 51-45 in Virginia. More importantly, Hillary is out to massive leads in early and absentee voting in all three states—52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan (absentee only—Michigan doesn’t have early voting), and 63-32 in Virginia.

If this is accurate—and knowing PPP’s reputation, it probably is—Trump is in a world of trouble. Let’s let the guys at PPP spell it out for you.

"Trump will be counting on a very strong performance on Election Day to have any chance at taking Michigan and Virginia, and he's probably pretty much already lost Colorado given the volume of early voting there."

Specifically, 73 percent of Colorado voters have already voted—enough for PPP to conclude that it’s all over but the shouting there.

Knowing what we know about Michigan and Virginia’s demographics, there isn’t a way forward for Trump in those states either. Even if Trump does everything right in Michigan, he will likely drown under a surge of Hillary votes in Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, and Lansing. Likewise, Trump could run the table in the “real Virginia” and still won’t have enough votes to overcome the likely Hillary tsunami in Northern Virginia.

This matches up with other polls showing Hillary out to massive early voting leads in other key states. Unless Trump and the RNC have a better GOTV operation than we’ve seen, we can probably breathe a little bit easier. Let’s finish it.

 

[RoseWilder]

This early voting article put a smile on my face:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/4/1591495/-Nevada-Strong

 

[ALM7]

18 hours ago, Howl said:

However, I'm filled with very low grade anxiety, so I think I'm a gonna watch cute cat videos and Monty Python skits until Tuesday night. 

[snipped post]

Over a year ago, I suspected Trump was actually the  Rabbit of Caerbannog.

[RoseWilder]

The Nevada early voting information wasn't updated until this morning (because so many people were still in line at 10 pm last night!!!)

It's good news: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-early-vote_us_581d5e39e4b0e80b02ca43d0

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Registered Democrats turned out in force in Nevada’s largest counties, providing Clinton a critical boost in a state where polling aggregates show the former secretary of state and GOP nominee Donald Trump within a few points of one another.

Over 57,000 votes were cast in populous Clark County, a single-day record that propelled Democrats to a statewide ballot edge larger than they held at the same point in 2012, when President Barack Obama won Nevada by nearly 7 points.

John Ralston (the guy who has been keeping an early voting blog about Nevada says it's over for Trump, that he no longer has a path to the presidency: 

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[RoseWilder]

Good early voting news out of Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591565/-Robby-Mook-NEW-Coalition-We-are-up-in-FL-by-170k-Latino-vote-increased-130-AA-turnout-up-22

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In a conference call with reporters, Clinton campaign manager Robbie Mook announced an early voting turnout record. At least 40% of voters in battleground states are turning out early.

Mook told reporters that the campaign believes it's leading in Florida by around 170,000 votes overall and said that at this time four years ago, the Obama campaign figured that it was behind by 15,000 votes. (Obama won the state, narrowly.)

 

[RoseWilder]

Good early voting information out of Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1588858/-Texas-Votes-and-Votes-and-Votes-Day-12-All-over-til-Election-Day

Only 3 more days till we all celebrate President Clinton! We can do this FJers! We're almost at the finish line. Victory is in sight!

[AuntK]

OMG! The polls, the media, everything is all over the place! I just got an email from the campaign with horrible numbers, seeking donations of course. If they're using bad polls to generate $$, well, shame on them! I have lost 15 pounds in the last two months, (it's ok, I can definitely spare it), due to this shitshow - no appetite and daily trips to the gym to relieve stress, I call this the Trump effect, the ONLY positive of this circus.

I am so depressed about the possibility of a Trump presidency and the fact that so many of my friends and family members are oblivious to the havoc this asshat will wreak on this nation.

Can't wait til this is over, but then again, I'm afraid. If my state, Florida, goes for Hillary It's over.  So, polls close at 7 in most of the state, but the panhandle is in the Central time zone and always goes Republican.  But, God willing, this could be over by 8:30 Eastern time Tuesday night.  Hopefully, it won't be so close that they have to recount absentee ballots. 

So grateful for this thread and website to vent.  Thanks for listening and holding my hand through this nightmare.

And I hope we can all have a YUUUGE VICTORY PARTY TUESDAY NIGHT! My house!

[RoseWilder]

Another great article about early voting in Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591626/-Florida-State-of-the-Race-11-5-Steve-Schale-Tom-Bonier-and-My-Own-Observations

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We’re closing in on our 2012 total vote in key counties like Miami Dade and Orange (Orlando).  That’s off the charts good.

The latinos who are voting are unlikely voters. 82.5% of those voting on Thursday were unlikely voters. Each one that is added to the pool pushes our chances of winning the election day vote higher. You can look at Nate Cohn’s model of NC and see the same thing happening. As of last night, HRC had moved from a tie among projected e-day voters to HRC +2.0 (she has a running 9 point lead among EV in NC).  Makes it impossible for Trump to catch up if those trends hold.

Asian American and other non-white voters make up about 5.5% of the electorate. Their turnout has been huge and they are voting for HRC. 

Jewish voters are supporting HRC by about a 10 point higher margin than they did Obama. That matters a lot in Palm Beach County and So. FL. Romney got 41% of the vote in PBC in 2012. Trump isn’t likely to match that this year.

I don’t have much data from Jacksonville, but we did win the EV yesterday and it appears that it will be a contested, close race there. There isn’t a path for Trump w/out a blowout win in Duval County. President Obama’s visit spiked turnout in Jacksonville. 

GOP turnout in their SW FL counties remains strong. However, Dem turnout there is also strong. Red county Dems are the unsung heroes of this election. They’re turning out in big numbers in FL and OH and other states. So when you see that a red county has a big turnout, Dem turnout is part of that spike.

 

[AuntK]

Just saw a commercial that was so ridiculous I had to just laugh, featuring a Hillary look-alike with bleach, a chainsaw and assorted tools attacking what appeared to be a hard drive.  Didn't see who is paying for it, but very amateurish and downright stupid.

[Palimpsest]

I'm keeping an eye on this thread because it seems to be getting worser and worser.  I want to crawl under my bed and suck my thumb until it's all over.

I still put my trust in women and all the other voters who belong to groups that Trump has defamed, insulted, and victimized to defeat him.

I still feel sick.

 

[RoseWilder]

4 hours ago, Palimpsest said:

I'm keeping an eye on this thread because it seems to be getting worser and worser.

Oh, but the early voting news is getting better and better for us! 

Ignore the polls, the media is flooded with badly done polls that are heavily Republican leaning. And they're pushing that narrative because it keeps people watching and clicking. The reputable polls are showing Clinton winning. And the early voting stats are very VERY good news for Clinton. 

North Carolina: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591816/-North-Carolina-has-Record-Breaking-Early-Vote-Turn-Out-3m-Ballots-have-been-cast

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In spite of the Republicans’ voter suppression efforts and the unlikelihood of early voting being extended, Democrats have still managed to exceed previous records in early vote and hold the lead in votes cast in the critical swing state. North Carolina remains a must win state for Trump.

Say Clinton wins North Carolina. Trump could win every other Romney state -- plus Florida, Ohio and Iowa -- and that still only puts him at 244 electoral votes.

Steve Shale's blog and twitter feed is full of good early voting news from Florida: 

http://steveschale.com/

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

There's a lot of great information in his latest blog entry, but my favorite part: 

Quote

I do believe this thing is tracking towards a Clinton victory. 

 

Another article about why Nate Silver is full of crap (although they're a little more diplomatic about it than that): 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

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The short version is that Silver is changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.

Silver calls this unskewing a “trend line adjustment.” He compares a poll to previous polls conducted by the same polling firm, makes a series of assumptions, runs a regression analysis, and gets a new poll number. That’s the number he sticks in his model ― not the original number.

He may end up being right, but he’s just guessing. A “trend line adjustment” is merely political punditry dressed up as sophisticated mathematical modeling.

Guess who benefits from the unskewing?

By the time he’s done adjusting the “trend line,” Clinton has lost 0.2 points and Trump has gained 1.7 points. An adjustment of below 2 points may not seem like much, but it’s enough to throw off his entire forecast, taking a comfortable 4.6 point Clinton lead and making it look like a nail-biter.

Because Silver is also unskewing state polls, which explains, for instance, why 538 is predicting Trump will win Florida, even as we and others (and the early vote) see it as a comfortable Clinton lead. To see how it works in action, take the Marist College poll conducted Oct. 25-26. Silver rates Marist as an “A” pollster, and they found Clinton with a 1-point lead. Silver then “adjusted” it to make it a 3-point Trump lead. HuffPost Pollster, meanwhile, has near certainty Clinton is leading in Florida. 

Ignore 538 everyone. I repeat, ignore 538. I stopped going there about a week ago and I've been 100 times calmer and happier since then. 

[AuntK]

I am seeing some fucking crazy shit on FB, so crazy that NO ONE in half their right minds would believe it. Looong posts about the satanic rituals involving menstrual blood, semen and babies, (eeww), posts about HRC selling defective missiles to US troops (WTF?)  I mean, this stuff sounds like people are dropping acid or something and posting.

One thing I have learned from this election- this country has a LOT of crazies running around loose that definitely need to be locked up!