2020 Election Results And Post-Election Day Discussion Part 2

[fraurosena]

Just now, Smee said:

Do we have numbers on the total turnout? They've counted what, 138 million votes so far? How many eligible Americans didn't vote?

As far as I know there are just over 150 million eligible voters (at least there were in 2018 and I don't think that number will have changed that drastically to make a difference). I'm shit at math, but if 138 million votes have been counted, and counting is still ongoing it looks like most of eligible voters actually voted. Which is an unprecedented massive turnout. 

(If these numbers are correct that is. Someone please correct me if they're wrong!)

[clueliss]

Dougherty County GA is Albany, GA.  So there is a city there (actually, I've been there). 

[Snarkasarus Rex]

2 minutes ago, Maggie Mae said:

Okay, Georgians (or literally anyone who knows more about the state than me) - what's going on in Dougherty County? THe NY Times map doesn't show a city there or anything, it's a dark blue, and only 49% are counted. 

The city of Albany is in Dougherty County. It’s a decent sized city for the area. It’s also home to Albany State, which is an HBU. 

[Giraffe]

Sorry if I'm late on this, CBS reporting Biden will take Michigan.

[nausicaa]

Someone on Twitter made a good point, if Trump wants to contest this he has a much bigger uphill battle than W. Bush had. The latter could just focus on Florida, which had already been called for him. Trump has to argue across at least four states and say certain states needed to stop counting votes while other states needed to continue counting. 

[TuringMachine]

Rundown from FiveThirtyEight

Quote

Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win

Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. I’m going to give you a rundown of how I’m currently seeing the states where we still don’t have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what we’ve written earlier.

But here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

ABC (who owns FiveThirtyEight) just declared Michigan for Biden, before the above was posted.

[clueliss]

I just came to report the same thing - re ABC News - they show Biden with 253 (still not showing AZ or NV in the mix - also not showing Alaska on Trump's count)

[Destiny]

Seeing MI and WI do their part in the group project made me unexpectedly emotional. 

[Maggie Mae]

Oh, good, MI is keeping their dem incumbent in the Senate. Or at least he pulled ahead with 96% counted. 

[meep]

Would someone be kind enough to explain the senate situation right now? I really don't know too much about it. 

[Destiny]

1 minute ago, meep said:

Would someone be kind enough to explain the senate situation right now? I really don't know too much about it. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-senate.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Nowhere near as good as we hoped. TL;DR one seat gained so far, a couple more still ??? 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Destiny

[Smee]

14 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

As far as I know there are just over 150 million eligible voters (at least there were in 2018 and I don't think that number will have changed that drastically to make a difference). I'm shit at math, but if 138 million votes have been counted, and counting is still ongoing it looks like most of eligible voters actually voted. Which is an unprecedented massive turnout. 

(If these numbers are correct that is. Someone please correct me if they're wrong!)

Is that eligible voters, or registered voters? For a population of 328 million that seems off to me.

[clueliss]

Dekalb county Georgia residents need to fix/cure ballots.

 

[nellautumngirl]

1 hour ago, Maggie Mae said:

The average, uneducated, white guys in my area are exactly what Trump is. They don't particularly appear to like women. They are loud, obnoxious, and show off stupid possessions. The trashier something is - lifted, loud trucks, truck nuts, pictures of cartoons peeing on this, naked women on mudflaps, camouflage anything, blatant racism - the more they like it. They will argue and get violent if you mention how violent men are. They will shout at women about how much they respect women.  If they had more money and were Trump's age, they would absolutely think that being able to pay someone to go to school for them and decorate with gold plated everything is the height of sophistication. 

That's awful. My college professor was from Texas (I'm in Germany) and he was an absolute gentleman. But of course he was very educated and travelled the world, hence why he was even in Germany in the first place. We have these guys you talk about too, but to me they seem to be a minority and slowly dying out. Most young men are very respectful.

[Cartmann99]

5 hours ago, HerNameIsBuffy said:

And from a personal standpoint - I want to get back to a time where every single day didn't bring a new scandal or new insane tweet from the WH.  I am not like those who want to get back to being apathetic, but I'd like to follow politics without so much of the needless drama of the last four years.

I want the luxury of being to able to lie in my bed for a few minutes in the morning instead of feeling the need to immediately get up and find out what fresh hell occurred while I was asleep.

[Maggie Mae]

9 minutes ago, meep said:

Would someone be kind enough to explain the senate situation right now? I really don't know too much about it. 

In order to Ditch Mitch, and regain control of the senate, we needed to flip enough seats to get 51 out of 100 seats. It was well known before the election that we would likely lose Alabama. We knew that we would likely gain Colorado. We also needed to hold on to all of the other seats. Not all states have a senator up for election. There were about 7 seats that were polling high or considered a "toss up." They have all been slowly staying the same - so once Michigan is officially blue, Dems will hold 48 seats (2 are Independents who caucus with the Dems), Republicans 48, with four remaining TBD -  Georgia will have a runoff in January for one of their seats, the other GA seat, NC, and Alaska, It's not looking great. 

Oh, we also gained a seat in Arizona. So that's good. 

I'm crossing my fingers for Al Gross, Alaska. Dan Sullivan is such a tool. And they've been polling with in one point of each other for a while. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Maggie Mae

[Destiny]

11 minutes ago, Cartmann99 said:

I want the luxury of being to able to lie in my bed for a few minutes in the morning instead of feeling the need to immediately get up and find out what fresh hell occurred while I was asleep.

Also, not knowing the president of the united state's poop schedule would be nice. Y'all, he does his morning tweet storms while pooping. FIGHT ME.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Destiny

[Maggie Mae]

It still would have been really nice to have seen a real blue wave, and a black guy beat Lindsey Graham, a woman beat McConnell, a human beat Collins, and so one. We even had a shot at Montana! Montana had a viable Senate challenger. 

Fun Truman Fact of the day: His mother did not want him to take the VP job, because she thought senators had more power. 

[Destiny]

What in the all-encompassing fuck is he DOING? 

This shit could start a fucking riot!

[TuringMachine]

Based on NYT numbers it looks to me like 48 blue to 52 red senate. Not great, but at least if Biden wins he can veto Moscow Mitch. And democrats would only need to have 2 republicans vote with them.

[Glasgowghirl]

I was impressed by Biden's speech, it was world's apart from Trump's moaning about it being a fix because he losing vital states. Biden wasn't someone that impressed me that much before now but his speeches in the past few day's have made warm to him a bit. I think this election result has an impact beyond the US, as someone in the UK and who is looking to see who the PM will have to Brexit trade negotiations with. 

[kpmom]

20 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

Someone on Twitter made a good point, if Trump wants to contest this he has a much bigger uphill battle than W. Bush had. The latter could just focus on Florida, which had already been called for him. Trump has to argue across at least four states and say certain states needed to stop counting votes while other states needed to continue counting. 

Exactly.

And don't forget, in 2000 they (the people doing the counting) were trying to determine which votes to accept or reject, and what a voter's intention was due to the hanging chads (remember those?). 

In this case they are counting legitimately cast mail-in votes.  I know he owns the supreme court now but it seems like it would be tough to tell states to stop counting legitimately cast votes that simply have not been counted yet.

[formergothardite]

2 minutes ago, Destiny said:

What in the all-encompassing fuck is he DOING? 

This shit could start a fucking riot!

Does he really think he can just declare the electoral votes are his? He is just sounding unhinged now. I thought he would have a better plan than pulling a Michael Scott and declaring it like that means something. 

[Smee]

3 minutes ago, Destiny said:

What in the all-encompassing fuck is he DOING? 

This shit could start a fucking riot!

He's doing exactly what we expected him to do, and I'm sure he hopes it DOES start a riot.

 

[Destiny]

3 minutes ago, Smee said:

He's doing exactly what we expected him to do, and I'm sure he hopes it DOES start a riot.

 

This is fucking terrifying. Y'all, the President of the United States is instigating a riot to win a fucking election. Today is a dark day (again, I know) for our history. I know there have been so many of them, but this is NOT FUCKING NORMAL.