Trump 58: Bringing Covfefe to a Battle of Wits With The FBI

[libgirl2]

39 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

A bit of backlash and nice to see.  Hope this is just the beginning:

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/battleground-republicans-unload-on-trump-ahead-of-expected-2024-announcement/3957964/

The rats are deserting the ship. Again, I wonder how his ardent supporters are going to feel. I saw a comment that both the GOP and Democrats would be thrilled if he ran because they think  he can easily be beaten. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by libgirl2

[GreyhoundFan]

"We can now quantify Trump’s sabotage of the GOP’s House dreams"

Quote

Heading into this midterm election cycle, most forecasters expected House Republicans to gain 20 or 30 seats, giving them a comfortable majority. Instead, they find themselves scrapping for every last seat in hopes of getting a bare majority of 218, with a cushion of a few seats beyond that if they are lucky. This disappointing performance can be attributed — at least in part — to Donald Trump’s influence on candidate selection. But just how much?

We can put a number on it by seeing how Trump-supported candidates did relative to those Republicans he did not endorse. If we look at all 401 contests in which a single Democrat faced a single Republican, there is not much difference. Relative to baseline expectations derived from their districts’ recent voting patterns (as calculated by the Cook Partisan Voting Index), 144 Trump-endorsed candidates exceeded their baselines by an average of 1.52 points. In 257 races where Trump did not endorse a general-election candidate, Republicans exceeded their baseline by 1.46 points.

But that similarity is driven mainly by Trump’s endorsements of many Republicans cruising to easy reelection in uncompetitive districts. If we focus exclusively on districts where the margin of victory was less than 15 points, such that the seat was conceivably in the balance, the picture that emerges is quite different.

In these 114 districts, candidates bearing Trump endorsements underperformed their baseline by a whopping five points, while Republicans who were without Trump’s blessing overperformed their baseline by 2.2 points — a remarkable difference of more than seven points.

To give a clearer sense of what this cost House Republicans, we can examine the election returns visually. In the chart below, the lower-right-hand quadrant shows races in which Republicans lost (the Republican margin was negative) even though the district had favored Republicans in recent elections (the expected Republican margin was positive):

The orange dots, representing Trump-endorsed candidates, are plentiful in the area where candidates performed below expectations, while they are almost nonexistent on the other side. In other words, nearly all Trump-endorsed candidates in competitive races underperformed their expectations.

In some races, Trump-backed candidates fell well short of expectations but still won their seats. For example, Lauren Boebert, one of the House’s loudest election deniers, has a tiny 1,100-vote lead in her R+7 district, which should have been an easy win for the GOP. (The expectation would be a 57-43 win.)

But there are five races in which the Trump penalty was probably decisive:

• Republicans were expected to win a newly created North Carolina district in the state’s Research Triangle area, rated R +2. But 27-year-old, Trump-endorsed Bo Hines, who drew comparisons to the recently defeated Rep. Madison Cawthorn, lost the seat to Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel, 51.3-48.7.
• With Trump’s endorsement, former pageant winner Madison Gesiotto Gilbert won a 28.6 percent plurality in the primary in Ohio’s 13th District, vacated by Tim Ryan, who ran for Senate. But although the district is rated as R+1, she lost by five points to Democrat Emilia Sykes, 52.6-47.4.
• In northern Ohio, Trump-endorsed J.R. Majewski “gained fame for painting his lawn into a giant Trump shrine,” according to Politico. He lost his party’s tentative backing after the exposure of various misstatements about his military record in September. Although the district was rated R+3, incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur dispatched him with ease, 56.5-43.5.
• In a prime pickup opportunity in northeastern Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Democratic incumbent Matthew Cartwright had to defend his now R+4 seat. He fended off the Trump-endorsed Jim Bognet without too much difficulty, winning 51.2-48.8.
• In Washington’s 3rd District, Trump-endorsed Joe Kent narrowly beat out incumbent Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the primary, attacking her for her January 2021 vote to impeach Trump. Kent went on to lose the R+5 seat to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, 50.8-49.2.

New Hampshire’s 1st District, rated as dead even, is a closer call. Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old former assistant press secretary to Kayleigh McEnany, lost to Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas by eight points, 54-46. Another close call is Michigan’s 3rd District, rated as D+1. Incumbent Republican Peter Meijer would have been well positioned to defend his seat, although redistricting had made it less favorable for him. Instead, he lost his primary to Trump administration veteran John Gibbs, who attacked Meijer for his vote to impeach Trump. Gibbs lost decisively to Democrat Hillary Scholten,54.8-41.9.

We still do not know the outcome of the contest in Alaska, but Trump’s influence might well cost Republicans that seat, too. He threw his weight behind former vice-presidential nominee (and fellow reality TV star) Sarah Palin to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R) in a special election earlier this year. Using the state’s new ranked-choice voting format, Palin lost out to Democrat Mary Peltola despite Republicans winning more first-choice votes. The November election seems likely to repeat that result, giving the R+8 district to Democrats.

In short, Trump remains quite popular among Republican voters, and his endorsement was decisive in plenty of House primaries this summer. But close association with the twice-impeached president was a clear liability in competitive 2022 House races, turning what would have been a modest-but-solid Republican majority into (at best) a razor-thin one. For die-hard loyalists eager to see their party purged of any “RINO” elements, that might be a price worth paying.

But for those Republicans focused on building their party’s coalition and improving its performance in the 2024 presidential election (relative to Trump’s 46.1 percent in 2016 and 46.8 percent in 2020), the evidence from this year’s House races overwhelmingly suggests that conforming the party to Trump’s vision is an electoral dead end.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

"The status of key investigations involving Donald Trump"

Quote

Donald Trump is facing historic legal and legislative scrutiny for a former president, under investigation by the Justice Department, U.S. lawmakers, local district attorneys and a state attorney general. The Justice Department is investigating the handling of classified documents seized from Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8. Authorities are also looking into Trump, his advisers and his family business for a medley of possible wrongdoing, including his actions leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, efforts to overturn the 2020 election and how he valued his various assets for loan and tax purposes.

The probes threaten Trump with criminal or financial penalties, or plain old public embarrassment, as he remains a dominant presence in his party and weighs a 2024 bid to return to the White House. Here’s a list of the key investigations and where they stand.

The Mar-a-Lago boxes investigation

What is it: The FBI executed a search of Trump’s residence at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 8, part of a criminal probe into possible mishandling of classified information, as well as possible hiding, tampering or destruction of government records.

The Justice Department is investigating how boxes of White House records — including some highly classified material — made their way to Mar-a-Lago. After 15 boxes of documents were returned to the National Archives and Records Administration early this year, the Archives found classified materials inside and asked the Justice Department to investigate. A grand jury issued a subpoena in connection with the probe in May. When the Justice Department became convinced that not all the documents had been handed over in response to that subpoena, it sought court permission for a search.

The House Oversight Committee is also looking into the matter.

What’s at stake: Mishandling classified information is a federal crime that could lead to prison time. So is hiding, tampering or destroying government records. To substantiate a criminal case, prosecutors would have to prove that Trump or his aides intentionally mishandled the material or were grossly negligent in doing so — a high legal bar, particularly since the president is the ultimate decision-maker on what information should be declassified. In practice, the department reserves criminal charges for those who deliberately mishandle such files. The FBI may also want to assess how widely the classified information may have been disseminated.

The investigation also could have political consequences. Just ask Hillary Clinton, famously investigated for possibly mishandling classified information because of her use of a private email server when she was secretary of state. That case ended with damaging revelations — but no charges — just before she lost the 2016 presidential election.

What’s next: A federal judge in Florida granted Trump’s request to have a special master to review the documents seized by the FBI and separate any protected by executive or attorney-client privilege. Raymond J. Dearie, a federal judge based in Brooklyn, was appointed special master and has launched the review process. On Sept. 21, an appeals court overruled the Florida judge and said the special master does not have to review the classified documents and the FBI can resume using them in their criminal probe.

Justice Department criminal probe of Jan. 6

What is it: The Justice Department is investigating the Jan. 6 riot and has charged hundreds of people who breached the Capitol that day with trespassing, trying to obstruct the vote certification and attacking police officers. Prosecutors also have alleged intricate conspiracies, including those involving the leaders of the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, and recently expanded their examination to include the preparations for the rally that preceded the riot, as well as the decision by Republican electors in some states won by Democrat Joe Biden to send signed statements purporting to affirm Trump as the victor.

Trump’s statements and behavior have also become part of the investigation, with prosecutors seeking a broad range of phone records, emails and grand jury testimony from various former aides and members of his inner circle.

What’s at stake: The big question for most observers is: Could Trump face charges? The answer remains unclear. Attorney General Merrick Garland has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for the riot and for “any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another,” and to investigate people “at any level.”

No former president has been charged with a crime in U.S. history. In cases when investigators found evidence suggesting a president engaged in criminal conduct, as with Richard M. Nixon and Bill Clinton, authorities ultimately decided not to pursue such cases — in part to avoid appearing to use government power to punish political enemies and assure the tradition of a peaceful transfer of power.

What’s next: Expect more grand jury appearances and more subpoenas, and watch for whether anyone close to the former president will cooperate with federal authorities.

Georgia election results investigation

What is it: Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D), an elected prosecutor in the Atlanta area, is investigating efforts to overturn Trump’s loss in Georgia’s 2020 presidential election. Trump pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) to “find” enough votes to reverse Biden’s victory. He also called the top Georgia state elections investigator and urged her to identify wrongdoing in the state’s vote, and contacted Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and state Attorney General Chris Carr (R). Prosecutors are scrutinizing Trump’s calls, as well as testimony Trump allies gave to Georgia state lawmakers in December 2020, and the scheme to certify a slate of fake electors from the state to contest the election results.

Where it stands: Willis said in late August that her team has completed interviews with more than half of the necessary witnesses and expects the special-purpose grand jury to issue a report with recommendations before the end of the year. She could then decide whether to bring criminal charges. In September, she told The Washington Post that the allegations are “very serious,” and that if people are indicted and convicted, they could get prison time.

What’s at stake: Willis is investigating possible violations of Georgia state law, including whether anyone illegally solicited election fraud, attempted to “interfere with, hinder, or delay” election administrators’ work, or participated in a criminal conspiracy, legal experts say. But the district attorney is in some uncharted territory, experts said, because these statutes have not been widely used to prosecute election-law cases.

What’s next: At least 17 people have been notified they are targets of the criminal investigation, meaning they could eventually face charges, and more targets are expected, Willis has said.

The Jan. 6 select committee’s investigation

What is it: A House committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and the events leading up to it held a series of high-profile, televised hearings this summer and fall featuring multiple witnesses — many of them Republicans who are or were close to Trump. While the hearings do not meet the standards of a criminal probe, they offered the fullest account yet of Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results and his alleged role in provoking the carnage at the Capitol.

Where it stands: The committee interviewed hundreds of witnesses and examined voluminous text messages and other documents, then presented the information it gathered in the carefully produced summer hearings. Lawmakers held their last public hearing in October but say they are continuing to speak with new witnesses and will issue a report in coming weeks.

The Justice Department has charged two former Trump aides with contempt of Congress for bucking their subpoenas; Stephen K. Bannon was convicted in late July, and former White House trade adviser Peter K. Navarro is scheduled for trial in January.

What’s at stake: The committee can’t charge Trump with a crime. But the Justice Department has asked for copies of witness transcripts and other documents. And the committee could make a formal criminal referral to the Justice Department requesting that the president face specific charges, though any such referral may have little bearing on issues that prosecutors are already investigating.

Trump business practices, criminal and civil probes in New York

What is it: The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and the New York Attorney General’s Office have been investigating Trump’s business practices, particularly allegations that he misrepresented the value of his assets to lenders and tax authorities to secure loans and get breaks on his taxes.

Where it stands: The criminal probe, started in 2019 under then-District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr. (D) and continued this year under his successor, Alvin Bragg (D), resulted in indictments on tax fraud-related charges for the Trump Organization and longtime senior executive Allen Weisselberg. But it appeared to lose momentum this spring, after two leading prosecutors resigned, with one expressing frustration that Bragg had not signed off on an indictment of Trump or his family. Bragg has said he will make a public announcement if his office decides to close the case without charges.

Attorney General Letitia James (D) filed a lawsuit Sept. 21 against Trump, three of his children and the Trump Organization, accusing them of flagrantly manipulating the valuations of their properties to get better terms on loans and insurance policies, and to get tax breaks. The suit seeks to recover more than $250 million in what James’s office says are ill-gotten gains. It also asks the New York Supreme Court to bar Trump, as well as Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump, from serving as executives at any company in New York, and to bar the Trump Organization from acquiring any commercial real estate or receiving loans from any New York-registered financial institution for five years.

What’s next: Trump, his children and his lawyers have dismissed the inquiry and James’s lawsuit as a politically motivated attack on them and have denied wrongdoing. The litigation probably will stretch on for some time.

In mid-August, Weisselberg pleaded guilty to committing more than a dozen felonies, including criminal tax fraud and grand larceny. The Trump Organization is currently on trial on tax-related criminal charges.

Westchester, N.Y., golf club

What is it: Westchester District Attorney Miriam “Mimi” Rocah (D) is investigating property tax records related to one of Trump’s golf clubs in suburban New York.

Where it stands: The status of Rocah’s investigation is murkier than some of the others. In October, 2021, it was reported that her office had subpoenaed property tax records from the town of Ossining, N.Y., which sets property tax rates for the course. The Trump Organization had challenged the property valuation for the club for every year since 2015; that process often involves a company turning over data about a property’s financial performance as evidence that it is worth less than its assessed value.

What’s at stake: Rocah’s probe appears to be similar to Bragg’s in that it is focused on the valuation of a Trump property.

What’s next: A spokeswoman for Rocah has declined to comment on the matter, and it’s unclear what steps investigators have taken or what they might do next.

 

[onekidanddone]

I’m binging on St. Elsewhere reruns has fuck knob announced?

[GreyhoundFan]

Tackiness level off the charts:

 

7 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

I’m binging on St. Elsewhere reruns has fuck knob announced?

9pm Eastern. Good choice of show to binge!

[onekidanddone]

8 minutes ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Tackiness level off the charts:

 

9pm Eastern. Good choice of show to binge!

From golden toilets to golden showers. 

[libgirl2]

19 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

I’m binging on St. Elsewhere reruns has fuck knob announced?

I loved and love that show!!!

[SassyPants]

2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

"The status of key investigations involving Donald Trump"

 

Yet a blown midterm election is what it took for many of Trump’s supporters to realize that he is not a decent person or anyone who should be the leader of anything within the government sphere. This makes me very angry. Idiots, useful to Trump, idiots.

[onekidanddone]

7 minutes ago, libgirl2 said:

I loved and love that show!!!

It’s on Hulu 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[onekidanddone]

12 minutes ago, GreyhoundFan said:

 

Am I violating his 1st Amendment rights by not watching or giving a rats ass?

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[AnywhereButHere]

I would say they’re exercising their 1st amendment rights to not have to listen to his ass, and I do appreciate them not cutting into my viewing of something far more entertaining. Granted, that bar is not high…

[GreyhoundFan]

2 minutes ago, AnywhereButHere said:

I would say they’re exercising their 1st amendment rights to not have to listen to his ass, and I do appreciate them not cutting into my viewing of something far more entertaining. Granted, that bar is not high…

To be fair, this would be more entertaining, interesting, and intelligent than anything featuring the tangerine toddler. 

 

[AnywhereButHere]

@GreyhoundFan That’s hysterical. And yes, I just watched some of it. 😂

Years ago I went down to DC to watch the practice rounds for the US Open(golf) for the weekend with husband. I dislike golf immensely and find it incredibly boring. I accidentally knocked over my water bottle onto the wooden bleachers and spent the next few minutes watching the water spot dry in the sun. When it did, I spilled more on purpose to watch it dry again. Yup, I found watching paint dry more entertaining than golf. All that to say, I would rather be watching golf (or paint dry or grass grow)than watch Fucknut speak. 😆

[GreyhoundFan]

And he’s filed the official paperwork:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html

43 minutes ago, AnywhereButHere said:

Years ago I went down to DC to watch the practice rounds for the US Open(golf) for the weekend with husband. I dislike golf immensely and find it incredibly boring. I accidentally knocked over my water bottle onto the wooden bleachers and spent the next few minutes watching the water spot dry in the sun. When it did, I spilled more on purpose to watch it dry again. Yup, I found watching paint dry more entertaining than golf. All that to say, I would rather be watching golf (or paint dry or grass grow)than watch Fucknut speak. 😆

I despise golf. And I’d still rather watch golf than the mango Mussolini. 

[Destiny]

Gods damn it.

Please gods, if you are listening, don't make me have to have this avatar for another six fucking years.

[GreyhoundFan]

 

 

[CTRLZero]

I think Trump should form his own MAGA party and bleed votes from the GOP.  Wonder how the GOP will react.  Do we all have enough popcorn? 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[Seahorse Wrangler]

48 minutes ago, Destiny said:

Gods damn it.

Please gods, if you are listening, don't make me have to have this avatar for another six fucking years.

You need Loki to run again.

[thoughtful]

I have this lovely little dream - a nice recurring thought. I shall share it with all of you.

Someday (and I'm hoping it's someday soon), this thread will no longer be pinned. It will no longer need to be pinned because The Count of Mostly Crisco (aka Scooby Coup, The Treasonous Traffic Cone, Butternut Berlusconi, Hair Farce One, Voldemoron) will be that unimportant to the news. He'll no longer be a cause of worry to anyone.

Every now and then, his thread will drift to the top because he's said or done something stupid in prison. Then it will sink down again.

Isn't that a nice thought?