The next Duggar/Bates?

[anjulibai]

Barely 18 and married. Engaged at 17 if the dates I had are right.

anjulibai, Rachel and Wes had their loss on 9-2-10. Now, that's what I found as the miscarriage date along with that she was 4-5months along. No due date that I could find yet.

Good to know, thanks!

[lexiloumarie]

Good to know, thanks!

She was due in February of '11 from what I can find, if that helps.

[anjulibai]

She was due in February of '11 from what I can find, if that helps.

Also good to know. I'll see how I can incorporate that info.

[youthfulclearly]

I think Monica (Daming) Brown could easily have 19 kids. She was born in July of 1990, got married March 20, 2010, and she has 4 kids already, born Jan '11, Mar '12, Aug '13, and Oct '14. She's only 24! At her age, Michelle and Kelly were both on their 3rd pregnancies.

Also something else - Monica's mom Nadine had 13 kids. Her last kid was born in Jan '10 - Nadine was 48. I found the date of births of the parents, and the first five kids on a public family tree site. wnconline.net/~hermes/gsdnap/submissions/JohnFrnklinCoNC.htm If you search for Monica Suzanne Daming, it'll take you to correct spot.

[uber frau]

I'm fairly certain Monica will have a super-duper mega sized family if nothing changes drastically (ie,her uterus doesn't fall out,or their belief system doesn't change). She started very young and,if her mother's fertility is any indicator, she won't hit menopause until her late forties. She will have had about 30 years of childbearing.

How old was Ma Morton when Paul was born? She was born in 1960 but I don't know how old Paul is. He looks about 3 or 4 a picture from 2007 so I'd hazard a guess she was about 43 when he was born. By that estimate Katie has another twelve or so years of babies. If she continues to slow down the way she has been,that's 'only' another 7 or 8 kids. She might hit the low teens but not 20 (provided there aren't any twins).

The Smith girls are a bit harder to predict since their parents seem to have finished having bio-kids well before menopause (although I could be wrong. Jacquie could be one of those women who goes through very early).

[lexiloumarie]

How old was Ma Morton when Paul was born? She was born in 1960 but I don't know how old Paul is. He looks about 3 or 4 a picture from 2007 so I'd hazard a guess she was about 43 when he was born. By that estimate Katie has another twelve or so years of babies. If she continues to slow down the way she has been,that's 'only' another 7 or 8 kids. She might hit the low teens but not 20 (provided there aren't any twins).

The Smith girls are a bit harder to predict since their parents seem to have finished having bio-kids well before menopause (although I could be wrong. Jacquie could be one of those women who goes through very early).

He looks 2ish here maybe? Edwin was born in '01, I'd say he's probably an '03 baby.

mortonclan.blogspot.com/2005/09/baby-paul.html

This makes reference to Paul being 3 in '06. That's have made her 43ish when she had him, correct?

mortonclan.blogspot.com/2006/09/family-news.html

[Coco]

i haven't slipped far enough into the rabbit hole yet, but i am curious, myself, as to what happened.

Not to be mean, but maybe those were just the only times after getting married that she had periods. Not to discredit her but i'm just wondering (and perhaps they were actually very early miscarriages). If she got married in Oct. 1997 and says she's had 17 pregnancies, including the current one, that's amazing fertility.

Is it possible to never have an actual period due to pregnancy/nursing/pregnancy? :think:

[Bethella]

Not to be mean, but maybe those were just the only times after getting married that she had periods. Not to discredit her but i'm just wondering (and perhaps they were actually very early miscarriages). If she got married in Oct. 1997 and says she's had 17 pregnancies, including the current one, that's amazing fertility.

Is it possible to never have an actual period due to pregnancy/nursing/pregnancy? :think:

I know that after having a baby you can get pregnant without having a period (you would get pregnant with the first egg released after the birth). But I don't know if it is really possible to do that consistently, it would involve some spectacular fertility and sex quite quickly after the birth.

However in at least a couple of Jill's cases there were ultrasounds to confirm fetal demise.

We went to the hospital the next day to see on a sonogram a perfect 12 week old baby with NO heart-beat!

Our worst fears were confirmed again as we gazed at another precious baby with NO heart-beat!

Although we did have a discussion at one point about how severe the miscarriages actually were and how accurately she described her medical condition. The belief was that if she bled as severely as she claimed she should have bled to death and/or had more transfusions.

I bled heavily, like a faucet, for hours! After losing another huge surge of blood, I passed out. I remember my husband calling my name, but I was too weak to open my eyes or respond. He quickly called the mid-wife and 911.The ambulance came and rushed me to hospital where they continued to let me hemorrhage for another eight hours. I passed in and out and they offered me blood transfusions. I refused at first, but slowly grew weaker and whiter. I was so weak I could hardly move. I KNEW something had to be done. They finally called the doctor and rushed me in for an emergency D&C. The reason for all my bleeding was that part of my placenta was stuck in utero. I lost over 60 percent of my blood so they administered four units of blood through transfusion and wanted to give me a fifth, but I refused. I was still weak, but knew that I would live, praise God!

[ophelia]

So some preliminary info:

Katie has babies on average every 15.7 months. This was pretty consistent for her first 6 kids, but there was a jump to 21 months between her 6th and her 7th. Could have been a fluke, could have been evidence of a miscarriage, could have been her fertility is slowing now that she's past 30. We'll see. That said, if she continues with an average of 15.7 months, she'll have child #16 when she's about 43. She could have child #18 at 45.

Kressant has babies on average every 17 months. However, the time between her pregnancies has increased by about a month each pregnancy: 13 months between 1 and 2, 16 between 2 and 3, 17 between 3 and 4, 18 between 4 and 5, and 20 between 5 and 6. That's a pretty strong indication that her fertility will decrease as time goes on. My guess would be that the next baby will be about 22 months after her last baby. If she stays at roughly 22 months between pregnancies, she'd have baby #16 at about age 45.

Rachel I need to find some more dates before I do more calculations. I'm missing two times between pregnancies, so that makes things iffy.

Now, these aren't that accurate because I only have the months, not the dates; I used the 1st for each birthday as an estimate, but depending on the dates a kid was born, a month or so could be added on to the averages.

So yeah, spreadsheets. :embarrassed: ;)

thank you for your time.. since I'm pretty obsessed with the S'mortons I really appreciate all the information!!

there are a few things I'd like to add:

- I think Katie is glad that she was "already" 23 when she was married off. with her fertility she could easily have as many children as monica daming brown has (or is going to have)

- is bethany really turning 25 next year? I always thought she was at least two years younger than rachel. I don't think that she and her husband will have a supersized mega family. her first two pregnancies were already difficult and I think at some point there will be medical intervention that will stop her having biological kids. maybe she follow her parents footsteps and is going to adopt.

- dorothy seems to be less fertile than her sister and sisters in law. let's see how long it takes tayte and marth to have their first blessing.

[lexiloumarie]

thank you for your time.. since I'm pretty obsessed with the S'mortons I really appreciate all the information!!

there are a few things I'd like to add:

- I think Katie is glad that she was "already" 23 when she was married off. with her fertility she could easily have as many children as monica daming brown has (or is going to have)

- is bethany really turning 25 next year? I always thought she was at least two years younger than rachel. I don't think that she and her husband will have a supersized mega family. her first two pregnancies were already difficult and I think at some point there will be medical intervention that will stop her having biological kids. maybe she follow her parents footsteps and is going to adopt.

- dorothy seems to be less fertile than her sister and sisters in law. let's see how long it takes tayte and marth to have their first blessing.

Bethany is a Jan '91 birthday so she wil be 24.

I will be interested in when Dorothy has a third, that will really tell us if she's having better spacing.

[Kira]

Will the next Duggar/Bates become "famous"? If TLC lurks on FJ, I wonder if they've ever considered giving a show to any of the families we follow. I remember something about the Smiths auditioning for a show on Oprah's network a couple of years ago. Is that true? I think the S''Morton story is too strange for t.v.

[ladyamylynn]

I think it'll be tough for anyone to beat J'Chelle unless they have a set or two of twins.

[singsingsing]

It won't be that tough. Michelle is far from the first woman to have 19 (or more) children. Kelly Bates tied her without having any twins (and having multiple miscarriages).

[ladyamylynn]

It won't be that tough. Michelle is far from the first woman to have 19 (or more) children. Kelly Bates tied her without having any twins (and having multiple miscarriages).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pe ... t_children

I'm sure this list is far from comprehensive. It looks like twins are prevalent but not absolutely necessary to crack 20.

[anjulibai]

Well, I think I've got as much from the Morton blog as is there. Can't find one of Rachel and Wesley's son's birthday, because he was born in the transition between blogs. Don't have the Katie's most recent daughter's name or birthdate. I'm surprised they didn't post about that, though probably because they were busy with Martha's wedding.

So currently, I have Kressant having Baby #19 at age 45 and Katie having Baby #19 at 47. However, Katie has an average time between pregnancies of 15.6 months and Kressy has an average of 17 months, and the time between births still increases each time.

Rachel might reach #19, too, still working on that. I'll let you know when I average things out. Just need to do that.

[anjulibai]

One more thing. While going through the posts looking for babies, weddings, birthdays and other stuff, I began thinking the Mortons were a nice family. They have a lot of fun, socialize with others, go to church, have friends, and parties. Lots of nice, sweet images.

But then I saw several posts with the Confederate Flag and I began reading a little closer. And...oy.

I think the Mortons are the fundies that really make fundie life look appealing, but beneath that veneer is a lot of awfulness.

[Kira]

The Morton's are often compared to the Maxwells. If you look through the archives you'll see how awful they are. They do make it look good :?

Don't forget that you can find some information on smithfamilia.blogspot.com and smithfamilia2.blogspot.com

[Milly-Molly-Mandy]

Anj, does your spreadsheet take into account possible declining fertility?

[anjulibai]

Anj, does your spreadsheet take into account possible declining fertility?

It can depending on how I manipulate the data.

So far, all I have been doing is calculating time between births and averaging these numbers out, in months. I might change that too weeks, though, to make it more precise. So, in that way, no it doesn't.

However, if a woman's fertility declines that will show up in the averages. That's why Kressant's average is 17.0 - she's had a 13.4 months interval, a 15.7, a 17.5, a 17.6 and a 20.8. The last may be a fluke, it may not. I think it'll be more obvious whether her fertility is declining when the next baby comes along. If she has an average of 17.0 months, then that will be sometime in November 2015.

That said, I can alter the spreadsheet to use any months interval I want. I suspect that Kressant's next baby will be between 20 and 22 months after the birth of her most recent child, just based on the increase in the intervals between her earlier pregnancies. That would be sometime in late Winter, early Spring 2016.

The spreadsheet works best with steady fertility, like that seen with Michelle Duggar, Kelly Bates, and Esther Schrader.

Katie so far has had some very stable intervals, despite the last one between 20.3 months (estimate, don't have the exact date of her latest child's birth). That might just be a fluke - it happens, and there are examples with Michelle, Kelly and Esther. Each had a long interval followed by a return to intervals more in keeping with their average.

Anyways, we'll see. My prediction at this point is is that Kressant won't have a baby in 2015. Katie might, but probably around New Years 2016.

Rachel's averages are a little out of walk, and I'm still trying to figure out how to incorporate her miscarriage information.

Also, I have to add the disclaimer that I'm not a statistician so I could be completely and utterly off with everything. :P But it's fun to try to guess. :)

[anjulibai]

T

The Morton's are often compared to the Maxwells. If you look through the archives you'll see how awful they are. They do make it look good :?

Don't forget that you can find some information on smithfamilia.blogspot.com and smithfamilia2.blogspot.com

That will be my next step. :)

I saw the article from way back about the bride price. Talk about wackadoodle.

[DaffyDill]

It won't be that tough. Michelle is far from the first woman to have 19 (or more) children. Kelly Bates tied her without having any twins (and having multiple miscarriages).

Very true. The small Australian country town I grew up in had a family with 22 children. Babies stopped when Dad died (presumably from exhaustion :shock: ). These weren't fundies either, but may have been Catholics, IIRC.