The next Duggar/Bates?

[Kira]

I don't know much about the S'Morton, unfortunately. If someone can post the link to their website so I can pick out birthdates, I can add them to my spreadsheet and run the calculations to make a prediction.

I love spreadsheets. :embarrassed:

The S'Morton websites is mortonclanthree.blogspot.com

I know all of the birthdates ( :( and :embarrassed: )

Katie(31, April '83): January '07, January '08, May '09, August '10, October '11, January '13, October '14

Kressant(27, July '87): June '07, July '08, November '09, April '11, October '12, June '14

Rachel(25, BD unknown): May '08, September '09, stillbirth in late '10, March '12, July '13, due in March '15

There are other S'mortons, but it is too soon to tell how many they''ll have. If you want to do more research you can check out their old sites: mortonclan.blogspot, mortonclantwo.blogspot, smithfamilia.blogspot, smithfamilia2.blogspot.

[gustava]

If Jill stays as consistent as she has been, and is fertile until at least 43, she will have 6 or 7 more. If she is fertile for longer, she could hit 20+. Now that is a scary thought.

Hasn't she had one or more miscarriages? I could be mis-remembering.

[gustava]

Spreadsheets on a group/cult one loathes? Huh. Just sure there are better things to do with one's time is all.

You are on a snark site. By definition you are wasting your time.

[browncoatslytherin]

Hasn't she had one or more miscarriages? I could be mis-remembering.

according to their blog (which i'm am dangerously close to falling into a rabbit hole for) she's had five SEVERE miscarriages. emphasis is theirs.

[anjulibai]

Thanks Kira! I am on my phone and away from my laptop, so I will enter data later, but I will bring back what I find out.

For the record, it took my about ab hour total to get the birthdats and such for the several families I tend to flow, do not a ton of time. I update when a baby is born or someone marries or announces a pregnancy, maybe twice a month or so.

I have spent more time manipulating the data and making nice looking charts. It's an intellectual exercise for me, really. What things can I find from the data? I was able to predict Steven's birth to within a few weeks, which was pretty cool.

Now I can have some fun with the S'Mortons!!! :D

[browncoatslytherin]

Thanks Kira! I am on my phone and away from my laptop, so I will enter data later, but I will bring back what I find out.

For the record, it took my about ab hour total to get the birthdats and such for the several families I tend to flow, do not a ton of time. I update when a baby is born or someone marries or announces a pregnancy, maybe twice a month or so.

I have spent more time manipulating the data and making nice looking charts. It's an intellectual exercise for me, really. What things can I find from the data? I was able to predict Steven's birth to within a few weeks, which was pretty cool.

Now I can have some fun with the S'Mortons!!! :D

all of that should give you a big leg up for next year's predictions ;)

[16strong]

Spreadsheets on a group/cult one loathes? Huh. Just sure there are better things to do with one's time is all.

Hey now. We all have weird hobbies that are useless to everyone else. Don't hate.

[Paperplate]

About Jill R.: If she graduated home school in 1997, wouldn't she be 35 or 36 now? Don't you usually graduate at 18 or 19?

She started her schooling at a Christian school, so she probably didn't start a year early, like some people do with home schooling. Right?

If she was still 34 now, that would make her and David getting married in October of 1997 even creepier. She would have been 17 and David 25. That's a pretty big difference at that age.

I think she was 18 or 19 by then though.

Anyway, she has managed to crank out 12 babies in 17 years of marriage. Impressive, considering she also had five miscarriages SEVERE miscarriages, didn't have her first baby until 1,5 years after the wedding and has another one on the way now. If she doesn't take a big baby break again, like she did before Olivia, she could hit 19.

I hope she doesn't though!!!

ETA: Just started reading this: aboverubies.org/index.php/2013-11-12-17-55-51/english-language/motherhood/2484-motherhood-tears-of-grief-and-tears-of-joy. Apparently she was 18 when she got married.

ETA2: So she's at least 35 now. She still looks like she's over 40 though ...

[paganhomeschooler]

About Jill R.: If she graduated home school in 1997, wouldn't she be 35 or 36 now? Don't you usually graduate at 18 or 19?

She started her schooling at a Christian school, so she probably didn't start a year early, like some people do with home schooling. Right?

If she was still 34 now, that would make her and David getting married in October of 1997 even creepier. She would have been 17 and David 25. That's a pretty big difference at that age.

I think she was 18 or 19 (maybe even 20?) by then though.

Anyway, she has managed to crank out 12 babies in 17 years of marriage. Impressive, considering she also had five miscarriages SEVERE miscarriages, didn't have her first baby until 1,5 years after the wedding and has another one on the way now. If she doesn't take a big baby break again, like she did before Olivia, she could hit 19.

I hope she doesn't though!!!

My husband graduated in 97, and I graduated in 98. We are 35 and 34 respectively, and I think I was the 3rd or 4th youngest kid in my graduating class. Unless she "skipped" a grade? For perspective, we've got a big family, by society's average, and we've got 4 kids. I had 1 miscarriage between my oldest 2 kids. I had my first at 20 and last at 28. We thought WE were crazy! lol

[lexiloumarie]

The S'Morton websites is mortonclanthree.blogspot.com

I know all of the birthdates ( :( and :embarrassed: )

Katie(31, April '83): January '07, January '08, May '09, August '10, October '11, January '13, October '14

Kressant(27, July '87): June '07, July '08, November '09, April '11, October '12, June '14

Rachel(25, BD unknown): May '08, September '09, stillbirth in late '10, March '12, July '13, due in March '15

There are other S'mortons, but it is too soon to tell how many they''ll have. If you want to do more research you can check out their old sites: mortonclan.blogspot, mortonclantwo.blogspot, smithfamilia.blogspot, smithfamilia2.blogspot.

Rachel is July '89.

[anjulibai]

Okay, I might need some help getting started with the S'Mortons, because I don't see a listing of who is related to who on any of the blogs.

If someone can give me a short rundown on who is who, that would be helpful. Or at least, point me to where I can find a rundown.

Thanks!

[Kira]

Thanks, lexiloumarie. They're so young, it's scary.

[Kira]

Okay, I might need some help getting started with the S'Mortons, because I don't see a listing of who is related to who on any of the blogs.

If someone can give me a short rundown on who is who, that would be helpful. Or at least, point me to where I can find a rundown.

Thanks!

S'Mortons

Katie(Catherine)- married to Alan Smith

Michael Jr.- Married to Kressant Smith

Wesley(Joseph)-married to Rachel Smith

[anjulibai]

S'Mortons

Katie(Catherine)- married to Alan Smith

Michael Jr. Married to Kressant Smith

Wesley-married to Rachel Smith

Did you want the names of the entire Smith and Morton clans?

That would definitely be helpful. In part would like to know who is related to who; like are Katie, Michael Jr. and Wesley siblings? Are Alan, Kressant and Rachel siblings? Plus what are the parents' names?

That'll make it easier for me to go through the blogs to pick out more specific info.

Thank you!

[Kira]

Sorry wrong link :doh: mortonclan.blogspot.com/2007/06/our-family.html

Katie, Michael, and Wesley(Joseph) are siblings and the Smiths are siblings.

The Smiths have 12 children. Alan, Kressant, Rachel and Bethany are their biological children, and they have 8 adopted kids. I don't know the names of all of the younger kids. Bethany will be 25 next month. She and her husband Danny Lane are expecting their third baby in four years.

[anjulibai]

That's super helpful, thanks!

[gustava]

according to their blog (which i'm am dangerously close to falling into a rabbit hole for) she's had five SEVERE miscarriages. emphasis is theirs.

Yikes! Any idea the cause(s)?

[Kira]

That's super helpful, thanks!

You're welcome :) I can't wait to see what your S'Morton spreadsheet.

[anjulibai]

So some preliminary info:

Katie has babies on average every 15.7 months. This was pretty consistent for her first 6 kids, but there was a jump to 21 months between her 6th and her 7th. Could have been a fluke, could have been evidence of a miscarriage, could have been her fertility is slowing now that she's past 30. We'll see. That said, if she continues with an average of 15.7 months, she'll have child #16 when she's about 43. She could have child #18 at 45.

Kressant has babies on average every 17 months. However, the time between her pregnancies has increased by about a month each pregnancy: 13 months between 1 and 2, 16 between 2 and 3, 17 between 3 and 4, 18 between 4 and 5, and 20 between 5 and 6. That's a pretty strong indication that her fertility will decrease as time goes on. My guess would be that the next baby will be about 22 months after her last baby. If she stays at roughly 22 months between pregnancies, she'd have baby #16 at about age 45.

Rachel I need to find some more dates before I do more calculations. I'm missing two times between pregnancies, so that makes things iffy.

Now, these aren't that accurate because I only have the months, not the dates; I used the 1st for each birthday as an estimate, but depending on the dates a kid was born, a month or so could be added on to the averages.

So yeah, spreadsheets. :embarrassed: ;)

[Milly-Molly-Mandy]

all of that should give you a big leg up for next year's predictions ;)

Oh yay, glad we have such clever people on FJ to entertain us :)

[Kira]

So some preliminary info:

Katie has babies on average every 15.7 months. This was pretty consistent for her first 6 kids, but there was a jump to 21 months between her 6th and her 7th. Could have been a fluke, could have been evidence of a miscarriage, could have been her fertility is slowing now that she's past 30. We'll see. That said, if she continues with an average of 15.7 months, she'll have child #16 when she's about 43. She could have child #18 at 45.

Kressant has babies on average every 17 months. However, the time between her pregnancies has increased by about a month each pregnancy: 13 months between 1 and 2, 16 between 2 and 3, 17 between 3 and 4, 18 between 4 and 5, and 20 between 5 and 6. That's a pretty strong indication that her fertility will decrease as time goes on. My guess would be that the next baby will be about 22 months after her last baby. If she stays at roughly 22 months between pregnancies, she'd have baby #16 at about age 45.

Rachel I need to find some more dates before I do more calculations. I'm missing two times between pregnancies, so that makes things iffy.

Now, these aren't that accurate because I only have the months, not the dates; I used the 1st for each birthday as an estimate, but depending on the dates a kid was born, a month or so could be added on to the averages.

So yeah, spreadsheets. :embarrassed: ;)

This is great! Don't be embarrassed :lol: . I disagree with you about Kressant. I think she'll have baby #7 in the fall of '15. I think she has a better chance at reaching 19 than Katie does.

What is the problem you're having with Rachel? Don't forget to check the Smiths old blogs for dates.

ETA: I forgot about Rachel blog :doh: wesleaandcompany.blogspot.com

[browncoatslytherin]

Yikes! Any idea the cause(s)?

i haven't slipped far enough into the rabbit hole yet, but i am curious, myself, as to what happened.

[anjulibai]

This is great! Don't be embarrassed :lol: . I disagree with you about Kressant. I think she'll have baby #7 in the fall of '15. I think she has a better chance at reaching 19 than Katie does.

What is the problem you're having with Rachel? Don't forget to check the Smiths old blogs for dates.

ETA: I forgot about Rachel blog :doh: wesleaandcompany.blogspot.com

I'm going through and finding dates now. That will definitely make things more accurate.

My spreadsheet has has Kressant having a baby in March 2016, but that's given a 22 month interval, based on her increasing times between pregnancies. If I change it to her actual average of 16.9 months, that does change to October 2015, going with your prediction. That would put her at child #19 at age 45.

I think Kressant and Katie both have good odds to meet 19. And heck, one of them might have twins at some point.

BTW, a point in Katie's favor? She's got an average of a over a month higher than Kressant. That adds up.

Just to put things in perspective, Michelle Duggars average is 16.6 months and Kelly Bates' average is 15.6. I have always thought the reason Kelly didn't reach 20 was because of she had several miscarriages. Heck there's over 2 years between Ellie and Callie. That's at least one more baby.

The problem with Rachel is when she had the stillbirth. I need to go back and find an exact date, because that takes away 2 intervals to use to calculate.

I'll probably put this project away for the evening, because I have some stuff to do for work this evening, but I'll update on when I get the dates narrowed down and the averages more accurate.

[lexiloumarie]

Thanks, lexiloumarie. They're so young, it's scary.

Barely 18 and married. Engaged at 17 if the dates I had are right.

anjulibai, Rachel and Wes had their loss on 9-2-10. Now, that's what I found as the miscarriage date along with that she was 4-5months along. No due date that I could find yet.

[Feberin]

How old is Courtney from Sweet Tea and Buttermilk? She's up to five under five.

Also while time will tell about her fertility I think Jessa got married young enough she could get close to her mother if she inherited the super fertility and has a few sets of twins. If she gets pregnant soon she would be only a year older then her mother was when she had Josh.