Russia And The Invasion Of Ukraine

[EmCatlyn]

The counteroffensive seems to be going well for Ukraine, not so great for Russia.

 

Quote

KYIV, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces have seized an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east in a "very sharp and rapid" advance, a Russian-installed regional official said on Friday, in a breakthrough that may mark a turning point in the war.

After keeping silent for a day, Russia effectively acknowledged a section of its frontline had crumbled southeast of Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv.
…

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said Kyiv's forces had liberated more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region so far and that fighting continued in the eastern Donbas region and the south.

Pivotal Moment Ukraine War

[AnywhereButHere]

Quote

Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday admitted its forces had retreated from key towns in northeastern Ukraine after a stunning advance by Ukrainian troops.

The Defense Ministry said it had pulled forces out of the village of Balakliya and the strategically crucial city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region, after a decision to “regroup” and transfer them to Donetsk in the south.”

The retreat represents one of the biggest setbacks for Russia since President Vladimir V. Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.

“In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakliya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian military statement said.

 

Although Russian officials sought to spin the developments — saying “a powerful fire was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery” as they withdrew — it was clear their troops were retreating to avoid being encircled. Ukrainian officials said the Russians had left behind equipment and ammunition.

Earlier, the commander leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukraine had full control of Balakliya and also controlled part of Kupyansk, an important strategic rail hub seen as crucial to Russia’s war effort in the region.

The above is from a Washington Post article this morning. For some reason I can’t link it, but full text above. 

[EmCatlyn]

2 hours ago, AnywhereButHere said:

The above is from a Washington Post article this morning. For some reason I can’t link it, but full text above. 

The “regrouping” has resulted in the Ukrainians having more POWs that they have facilities for.

[Howl]

"Special Operation"

Lots of speculation about how this is going to play out for Putin; at this point, it cannot be unfucked. 

There is speculation as many as 50,000 Russian troops are dead, who knows how many are injured and will return home so damaged they can never be made right. 

There is some speculation also that the Russian PoWs can be used to bargain for the return of possibly over 100,000 kidnapped Unkrainian citizens who are in "filtration" (concentration) camps in areas in remote parts of Russia, and winter is coming; their condition and specific locations are not currently known.  They have no money and likely their passports have been confiscated. 

[EmCatlyn]

5 hours ago, Howl said:

"Special Operation"

Lots of speculation about how this is going to play out for Putin; at this point, it cannot be unfucked. 

There is speculation as many as 50,000 Russian troops are dead, who knows how many are injured and will return home so damaged they can never be made right. 

There is some speculation also that the Russian PoWs can be used to bargain for the return of possibly over 100,000 kidnapped Unkrainian citizens who are in "filtration" (concentration) camps in areas in remote parts of Russia, and winter is coming; their condition and specific locations are not currently known.  They have no money and likely their passports have been confiscated. 

The POWs will probably not be exchanged for civilians because it would set a precedent that would encourage kidnapping of civilians to exchange for POWs. There is apparently some international agreement about this.

However, exchange of POWs may bring back those who are left of the Azovstal defenders of Mariupol.  These were expected to be exchanged, but then Russia (surprise!) decided to try them as terrorists instead.  The “trials” have not begun yet, but many have been tortured and have been held in horrible conditions.  An explosion (staged by the Russians) killed off about 40 or 50.  (It is speculated they may have been tortured so  brutally that the explosion was to conceal the evidence.)  However, others still live (there were at least a thousand) including a paramedic who was pregnant at the time of her capture.  I hope every day that the Ukrainians can get these and other prisoners that Russia is holding on to.

As for the civilians (especially the children!) I think lifting western sanctions in exchange for their return might be the best approach.

The problem I see is that the Russians are acting so insanely that it wouldn’t surprise me if they refused to exchange prisoners and to return the civilians just to show they can.  

Edited September 11, 2022 by EmCatlyn

[Xan]

3 minutes ago, EmCatlyn said:

The problem I see is that the Russians are acting so insanely that it wouldn’t surprise me if they refused to exchange prisoners and to return the civilians just to show they can.  

The unsettling thing is how insane this whole situation is.  Putin used to be fairly calm and calculating.  I understand that he misjudged his forces and had been lied to about supplies and equipment.  I get that he decided that he wanted to make a grand gesture towards rebuilding Russia into another USSR before he got too old or died of a disease.  But, in years past, he would have had the sense to pull back when the war went into perhaps the second or third week.  He thought there would be no resistance.  Finding resistance, he should have withdrawn with some excuse.

I wouldn't be surprised if he triggered an explosion at the nuclear facility.  He's enough like Trump in that, if he can't win, he doesn't care if everyone dies.

Also, he made a huge mistake in underestimating Zelenskyy.

[EmCatlyn]

4 minutes ago, Xan said:

The unsettling thing is how insane this whole situation is.  Putin used to be fairly calm and calculating.  I understand that he misjudged his forces and had been lied to about supplies and equipment.  I get that he decided that he wanted to make a grand gesture towards rebuilding Russia into another USSR before he got too old or died of a disease.  But, in years past, he would have had the sense to pull back when the war went into perhaps the second or third week.  He thought there would be no resistance.  Finding resistance, he should have withdrawn with some excuse.

I wouldn't be surprised if he triggered an explosion at the nuclear facility.  He's enough like Trump in that, if he can't win, he doesn't care if everyone dies.

Also, he made a huge mistake in underestimating Zelenskyy.

Yes, I agree.  The risk to the nuclear facility right now has become less because there are “observers” present, and NATO has made it clear that if anything happens Russia will be deemed to have attacked NATO.  Putin doesn’t want that right now.

However, as you say, the man seems to have taken leave of common sense. In the first couple of weeks of the war, Ukraine was eager to negotiate a peace and might have given up territory. Putin refused to negotiate unless the Kyiv government stepped down and a bunch of other demands.   So here we are.

Both in St Petersburg and in Moscow there have been solemn, formal requests that Putin step down.  This is an ominous sign.  These people may know something about a political upheaval and are willing to risk Putin’s wrath now just to disassociate themselves from him against the time when someone else takes power.

It is rather fascinating, in a frightening sort of way.

[fraurosena]

Will this guy be taking a free flying lesson from a window soon, or is this the start of paving a path towards a Russian retreat from Ukraine?

 

[EmCatlyn]

A couple of positive-sounding rumors out there.

(1) The Russians in Kherson are trying to negotiate an “arms surrender.” (They lay down their weapons and get safe-conduct out of the front lines and presumably back to Russia.)  Ukraine is reluctant, but they have no place to keep them as prisoners if they insist on a full surrender.  Stay tuned.

(2) The Russians have (at least for the moment) paused in sending new units to Ukraine.  It appears the issue may be the refusal of military to go to Ukraine. 
 

See: Russian Units Negotiating Surrender

RU Military Command Suspends Sending New Units

Ukrainian Situation Increasingly Difficult for Russia

 

[CTRLZero]

Another suspicious death.  I believe this makes nine.  What’s going on here? 

Russian businessman Ivan Pechorin, the top manager for the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, has been found dead in Vladivostok, the latest in a string of mysterious deaths among Russian executives.

Another one bites the dust - CNN

[fraurosena]

4 hours ago, CTRLZero said:

Another suspicious death.  I believe this makes nine.  What’s going on here? 

Russian businessman Ivan Pechorin, the top manager for the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, has been found dead in Vladivostok, the latest in a string of mysterious deaths among Russian executives.

Another one bites the dust - CNN

Not so idle speculation: Putin is purging his (perceived or real) enemies. Or... someone is purging Putin's buddies.

[Xan]

I think Putin is finding it difficult to control his oligarchs now that money has dried up and sanctions are in place.  My guess is that he's sending messages that anyone who gets out of line with end up dead.  If he can't bribe them, he'll threaten them.

[47of74]

Russian talking heads eating their own

Quote

Russian TV pundits have launched into a furious on-air argument about the war in Ukraine—and a clip of their row is now going viral on social media.

The disagreement began as the talk show panelists discussed whether "the Ukrainian people" even existed and had their own language.

Daily Beast columnist Julia Davis shared the clip on Twitter on Tuesday evening. It has already been watched more than 345,000 times.

Davis tweeted: "'Are We The Baddies?' moment on Russian TV: One pundit, responding to his genocidal colleagues, who assert that Ukrainian nationality and language do not exist- suddenly realized he is in the company of actual Nazis and says, 'This is clear cut nationalism.'"

 

On 9/10/2022 at 11:10 PM, Xan said:

The unsettling thing is how insane this whole situation is.  Putin used to be fairly calm and calculating.  I understand that he misjudged his forces and had been lied to about supplies and equipment.  I get that he decided that he wanted to make a grand gesture towards rebuilding Russia into another USSR before he got too old or died of a disease.  But, in years past, he would have had the sense to pull back when the war went into perhaps the second or third week.  He thought there would be no resistance.  Finding resistance, he should have withdrawn with some excuse.

I wouldn't be surprised if he triggered an explosion at the nuclear facility.  He's enough like Trump in that, if he can't win, he doesn't care if everyone dies.

Also, he made a huge mistake in underestimating Zelenskyy.

And also he didn't have a compliant orange fluffer in the White House anymore to take the heat off him when he finally invaded the Ukraine.

Now Russia is a pariah state.  There isn't enough money on Earth to pay me to go to Russia.  It didn't even get an invite to Elizabeth's funeral. 

[EmCatlyn]

On 9/14/2022 at 10:15 AM, Xan said:

I think Putin is finding it difficult to control his oligarchs now that money has dried up and sanctions are in place.  My guess is that he's sending messages that anyone who gets out of line with end up dead.  If he can't bribe them, he'll threaten them.

What I wonder is whether all the defenestrations (love that word), car bombs, and other unexpected deaths come from Putin or if some of them reflect rivalries within the Russian power structure.

Putin seems to have gone mad.  He was always evil, but the way he has behaved since the invasion didn’t go the way he planned suggests someone unhinged as well as evil.

[Xan]

Putin has been meeting with XI Jinping today.  Xi has the upper hand here.  He's giving qualified support verbally to Putin but doesn't seem to be inclined to do anything materially.  He has his own problems at home with unrest over his Covid policies and doesn't want to piss off the West too much.  China doesn't like how we support Taiwan and Russia doesn't like how we support Ukraine.  The two of them did have a private meeting and probably aired their grievances about his.  Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.

I get the feeling that Putin didn't get as much out of this as he had hoped.

[Smash!]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:00 PM, 47of74 said:

Russian talking heads eating their own

I hope he doesn‘t pay it with a flight out of a window 😕

[47of74]

12 minutes ago, Smash! said:

I hope he doesn‘t pay it with a flight out of a window 😕

There's been a whole spate of these "accidents" lately.  Or "suicides."  

18 hours ago, Xan said:

Putin has been meeting with XI Jinping today.  Xi has the upper hand here.  He's giving qualified support verbally to Putin but doesn't seem to be inclined to do anything materially.  He has his own problems at home with unrest over his Covid policies and doesn't want to piss off the West too much.

I get the feeling that Putin didn't get as much out of this as he had hoped.

Especially if the west starts pulling some of their manufacturing and energy needs back in house as it were.  Like President Biden's efforts for expanded chip manufacturing here at home, or western Europe looking to other sources of energy to get off Russian energy.   

[EmCatlyn]

10 hours ago, 47of74 said:

There's been a whole spate of these "accidents" lately.  Or "suicides."  

Especially if the west starts pulling some of their manufacturing and energy needs back in house as it were.  Like President Biden's efforts for expanded chip manufacturing here at home, or western Europe looking to other sources of energy to get off Russian energy.   

From what I’ve read, Western Europe is very much moving in the direction of “other sources of energy” and Russia is not likely to get the market back even after sanctions. (It didn’t help Russia that they started cutting back delivery to all who had sanctions against them. Shooting themselves in the foot is something the Russians are getting good at, but unfortunately they shoot a lot of others while at it.)

Is Biden’s administration seriously looking into bringing more chip production to the US?  I am glad to think they might be.

[EmCatlyn]

Prisoner exchanges have resulted in the release of the Foreign Legion POWs that the Russians were calling “mercenaries” and threatening to execute.  The Saudi Arabians assisted in the negotiations.

Equally exciting, many of the Azovstal Defenders, including a couple of high-profile leaders, the pregnant female medic, and “Birdie” of the great singing voice, were exchanged also.

I don’t know about others, but I had not thought any of these would be released so long as the war continued.  I am as happy as if I actually knew these people personally instead of just knowing their names and a few details.

According to the press release I saw (which I can’t copy to link) there were some “valuable” Russian prisoners taken and these were exchanged for the Ukrainian POWs.

(Meanwhile, the madman of Moscow, Putin, is trying to pretend he can annex parts of Ukraine to Russia and also starting “partial” mobilization—the draft—to continue this destructive war.)

[47of74]

Apple pulled all VK apps from its store due to its CEO being sanctioned by the UK.  Russian communications watchdog Roskomnadzor has a sad now.

Quote

Russian telecom watchdog Roskomnadzor demanded explanations today from Apple regarding the removal of all VK apps, including the app for the country's largest social network VKontakte, from its App Store on Monday.

Two of the apps removed from the Apple Store, the VKontakte social network application and the Mail.ru mail app, are included on the Russian Ministry of Digital Development's list of apps with mandatory pre-installation on mobile devices in Russia.

Apple confirmed VK's removal from its App Store and said it was forced to do so to comply with recent UK-imposed sanctions against Russian entities, some of which are linked to VK (Vladimir Sergeevich Kiriyenko, the company's CEO, is also under UK sanctions since March).

"These apps are being distributed by developers majority-owned or majority-controlled by one or more parties sanctioned by the UK government," Apple spokesperson Adam Dema told The Verge.

I hope Apple just tells 'em to shove their request for an explanation.  They want to rejoin the civilized world they need to put Vlad and his douche buddies out to pasture and stop being a terrorist state.

Edited September 29, 2022 by 47of74

[GreyhoundFan]

This has always been one of my favorite pictures. It's sad that TFG couldn't stand up like Obama:

[47of74]

I wonder if we'll start seeing more of this

Quote

Two Russians who said they fled the country to avoid military service have requested asylum in the U.S. after landing in a small boat on a remote Alaska island in the Bering Sea, U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski's office said Thursday.

Karina Borger, a spokesperson for the Alaska Republican senator, said in an email that the office has been in communication with the U.S. Coast Guard and Customs and Border Protection and that “the Russian nationals reported that they fled one of the coastal communities on the east coast of Russia to avoid compulsory military service.”

Spokespersons with the U.S. Coast Guard and Customs and Border Protection referred a reporter’s questions to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security public affairs office, which provided little information Thursday. The office, in a statement, said the people “were transported to Anchorage for inspection, which includes a screening and vetting process, and then subsequently processed in accordance with applicable U.S. immigration laws under the Immigration and Nationality Act.”

The agency said the two Russians arrived Tuesday on a small boat. It did not provide details on where they came from, their journey or the asylum request. It was not immediately clear what kind of boat they were on.

 

[47of74]

Estonia shows how it’s done 

Quote

Estonia considers Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) said after Russia launched missile attacks across Ukraine on Monday morning. Politicians condemned the attacks and those on Sunday in southern Ukraine.

"The Republic of Estonia considers Russia a state sponsor of terrorism and the international community must do likewise," Reinsalu said in a statement.

"Missiles have hit and continue to hit playgrounds, homes and other sites that have no defense or military purpose whatsoever. The aim of this kind of an attack by Russia is terror – to destroy innocent people and cause as much destruction as possible."

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Nice message:

 

[SPHASH]

World War III has now started 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_e7fcb96313566fdeabb625b08f4b4b7f

Two missiles or rockets are reported to have hit a farm in Poland, near its border with Ukraine, killing two people.