Russia And The Invasion Of Ukraine

[Ozlsn]

Wagner mercenaries boss says his troops are marching into Russia.

Of all the turns of events this was not one I expected.

Spoiler

The founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Saturday that his men had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go "all the way" against the Russian military.

The move came not long after the Kremlin accused Mr Prigozhin of calling for armed mutiny.

Mr Prigozhin said Wagner troops were greeted by border guards as they moved into the Rostov region and were now driving into the city of Rostov.

He said young conscripts at checkpoints stood back and offered no resistance, adding that his forces "aren’t fighting against children.”

"But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said. “We are moving forward and will go until the end."

Earlier, Mr Prigozhin alleged, without providing evidence, that the Russian military leadership had killed a huge number of his fighters in an air strike and vowed to punish them.

In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the threat, riot police and the National Guard have been scrambled to tighten security at key facilities in Moscow, including government agencies and transport infrastructure, the state news agency Tass reported.

Russia’s chief prosecutor said the criminal investigation was justified and that an armed rebellion charge carries a penalty of up to 20 years imprisonment.

President Vladimir Putin has been informed about the situation and "all the necessary measures were being taken," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Mr Prigozhin escalated his direct challenge to the Kremlin, calling on Friday for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defence minister.

The security services reacted immediately by opening a criminal investigation into Mr Prigozhin and calling for his arrest.

Mr Prigozhin posted a series of angry video and audio recordings in which he accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on Wagner's field camps in Ukraine, where his troops are fighting on behalf of Russia.

Mr Prigozhin said his troops would now punish Mr Shoigu in an armed rebellion and urged the army not to offer resistance.

"This is not a military coup, but a march of justice," Mr Prigozhin declared.

The White House is monitoring the situation involving Russia and the Wagner force, and will be consulting with allies and partners on developments, National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge said on Friday (local time), after Moscow accused Mr Prigozhin of armed mutiny.

I'm not sure this is the best career or in fact life move, particularly against someone with an airforce and missiles.

Depending on how popular or not this war is though... it could be bad news for everyone.

[Ozlsn]

Full text in spoiler

Spoiler

At this point it is absolutely irrelevant if Prigozhin's coup will succeed or not. Literally everybody in Russia and outside will know after this night that the war in Ukraine is lost. The morale of the Russian army, which was already low, will hit rock bottom and the mood in Russia altogether will be Armageddon-like. What started as an attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government and annex all of Ukraine has eventually backfired on a monumental scale. The last chapter of this Russian-made tragedy has opened and I doubt that it will be a long chapter.

Also this amused me, in a dark kind of way.

Spoiler

 

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

So true:

 

[Ozlsn]

I have been obsessed with looking at maps and working out where the forces apparently are, and now I am giggling because the fastest route to Moscow has tolls and I'm imagining the mercenaries fishing around for spare change as they advance.

Spoiler

"Vlad do you have any roubles? I'm 5 short!"

"No Mikhail, only Ukrainian change, sorry. Pyotr?"

"I have... 3 roubles, and two buttons. Can't we just crash through?"

"And break the law?? I'll see if they'll take the Ukrainian money, hang on." 

 

[Audrey2]

31 minutes ago, GreyhoundFan said:

 

No worries. Trump and Tucker will insist that Russia actually won in Ukraine and that any reporting otherwise is fake news. Furthermore, if Trump becomes president again (and that terrifies me but I don't trust my fellow Americans), Trump may send troops into reverse the results of the war in Ukraine, so he can deliver Ukraine to his friend, Putin.

[GreyhoundFan]

Boy, his demeanor sure has changed:

 

[fraurosena]

I'm not so sure a takeover of Russia by Prigozhin would be such a good thing. 

[Dandruff]

4 hours ago, fraurosena said:

I'm not so sure a takeover of Russia by Prigozhin would be such a good thing.

Is that what he has in mind, though?

I'm no expert on this, but (speculation😞

- He may have realized that the "war" and its instigator are losers, having dealt with Ukraine and Putin up close.  If so, they're caught between hopeless front-line fighting or punishment for desertion, as well as a potential chunk of blame for losing the war.

- He's an oligarch and may have lots of money and other assets tucked away outside Russia's grasp.

- If he was to take over, he'd have a mess in Russia to try to clean up as well as his own reputation/sanctions to contend with when trying to deal with the West.

- He may believe a rocket was aimed at his "lads", who he could have developed a great deal of respect and loyalty for.

- He may have thought there was a window ledge waiting for him.

- He may think that if he abandons his lads that they'll be waiting for him.

- By doing what they're doing they're incurring Putin's wrath but they're still alive.

- Perhaps his current actions are intended toward trying to negotiate safety for himself and his troops.

Or not, I don't know.

[fraurosena]

Belarus has negotiated with Prigozhin, and he has terminated his coup and Putin is saying that he has been banned to Belarus as part of an agreement that Priozhin won’t be prosecuted.

This all seems so weird. I have a theory rattling around in my head that I haven’t quite worked out yet, but I might post about it in the morning.

[Ozlsn]

"Russia’s Federal Road Agency urged residents of the Moscow region on Sunday to refrain from travelling along the M-4 “Don” major expressway until 10 am (0700 GMT), Reuters reports.

The agency had said earlier in the day on the Telegram messaging app, in a post now deleted, that traffic restrictions on the highway in the Moscow and Tula regions remained.

The M4 links Moscow with the south, and authorities closed it on Saturday as Wagner fighters made their way up from Rostov."

From The Guardian's live blog of events.

Saw this this morning and wow.

 

[fraurosena]

The whole Prigozhin deal is really sus. Especially the Belarus connection has me thinking. Why would Progozhin agree to a deal while he was easily marching on Moskow and with Putin fled from the city? Not to speak of the cheering crowds along the way? What was the need to stop and turn around? Why would Prigozhin, and all those who were part of the coup, be given immunity from prosecution as part of the deal? Putin is nothing if not vindictive toward his enemies, so this is totally out of character.

Beep beep! Make way for the idle speculation bus! 

There are a couple of possibilities (which don't all exclude each other), and not everything is completely and logically thought out, so take all of it for what you will.

1. Putin has Prigozhin's loved ones under his control
   Prigozhin ends the coup to protect them. This does not answer why Prigozhin was given immunity.
2. Putin has Prigozhin's assets under his control
   Prigozhin ends the coup because he wants his assets back. This also does not answer why he was given immunity.
3. Putin and Prigozhin have cooked up a plan that allows Putin to save face and leave Ukraine, blaming Prigozhin
   This is a really wild idea, so I haven't put any real serious thought into it and it's the weakest of my options.
   Putin and Prigozhin are both well aware that the war in Ukraine cannot and will not be won by Russia. It's costing them way too much (think assets, not people-- I don't think they care about people at all), but Putin needs to save face if he wants to hold on to power and can't be perceived to lose or simply give up. So they've thought up this plan of the mercenary army turning against Putin-- Putin will claim Prigozhin has given him false information about Ukraine that prompted him to start the war. Now Putin knows, he can say "Whoops, sorry Zelenskyy!" and leave without losing face. This option does answer the question about immunity, but as I said, this idea is really out there and firmly in the conspiracy theory sphere.
4. With Belarus' Lukashenko reportedly in very ill health, Prigozhin was offered control of Belarus if he would end his coup. With the choice of fighting and bloodshed to gain control of a country, or getting one handed to you on a platter, I know which option I would prefer. It also could explain the immunity part, but who knows really?

To reiterate: this is idle speculation and only based on the sparse information out there. 

 

 

[clueliss]

Saw this on YouTube a bit ago.  Wall Street Journal timeline of events (so far) (posted about 8 hours ago)

 

 

[Xan]

2 hours ago, fraurosena said:

4. With Belarus' Lukashenko reportedly in very ill health, Prigozhin was offered control of Belarus if he would end his coup. With the choice of fighting and bloodshed to gain control of a country, or getting one handed to you on a platter, I know which option I would prefer. It also could explain the immunity part, but who knows really?

Personally, I like number 4 here.  I also think that Putin is still a little afraid of Prigozhin and his troops and is afraid of suffering window/stairs cancer like the people already eliminated.  Prigozhin could have informed him that there are still spies close by and people loyal to Wagner.  

I'd love to think that this is a way for Putin to leave Ukraine but I don't think he'd use it.  If Putin admits he was misled, it will make him look ill-informed and weak.  It will be better for him to eventually say that the Russian army let him down.  That way it isn't his fault.

[fraurosena]

Very interesting thread on the hidden meaning behind yesterday's events.

Spoiler

 

 

[Dandruff]

More speculation:

- If Prigozhin was truly being exiled I see no way for him to be handed Belarus.

- I still think Prigozhin was negotiating safety...if there was such a negotiation*.  His loved ones would be a very sensible addition to himself and his troops.

- It wasn't just Prigozhin.  If it was, then I doubt Putin would have accepted all the humiliation he has.  Some rebel heads would need to roll; i.e., full safety could not have been negotiated.

- Some heads may nevertheless roll but not the expected heads.

- My best guess is that Putin has narrowly averted a coup from within - top staff working with Prigozhin.  Putin knows he has been out-maneuvered and is glad things aren't worse.  Thus, the strange public demeanor.

*The negotiation may have been for a face-saving story for Putin, vs. safety for Progozhin and his folks.

[Ozlsn]

Commentary from another angle (long, so in spoiler):

Spoiler

Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:

1. Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

2. Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).

3. Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.

4. Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.

5. I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.

I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.

And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that. I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.

Interesting. I don't know much about the commentator - I came from another source who is usually pretty reliable - but it will be interesting to see from here.

Final comment - mob boss rule #1 - pay your staff, whether they're lawyers or mercenaries.

[fraurosena]

7 hours ago, Ozlsn said:

Commentary from another angle (long, so in spoiler):

  Hide contents

Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:

1. Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

2. Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).

3. Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.

4. Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.

5. I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.

I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.

And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that. I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.

Interesting. I don't know much about the commentator - I came from another source who is usually pretty reliable - but it will be interesting to see from here.

Final comment - mob boss rule #1 - pay your staff, whether they're lawyers or mercenaries.

This theory gives a really good explanation for all the weirdness surrounding the Wagner situation in Russia this weekend. Way better than my half-assed idea's. 

[Ozlsn]

Also background on the Wagner Group. 

Skipping to the end:

Conclusion

Wagner is closely, often directly, connected to the Russian state. There is evidence indicating that the Wagner Group was subordinated to the Russian military in Ukraine. Wagner extensively relies on Russian military infrastructure, from using a shared base to being transported by Russian military aircraft to using military health care services. The Russian state is also documented supporting the Wagner Group with passports and, as implied by the recent events in Belarus, even by presidential-level political intervention.

Not sure where this leaves them now - if they're out of favour in Moscow the company is pretty screwed. 

[fraurosena]

36 minutes ago, Ozlsn said:

the company is pretty screwed

Which, considering their appalling reputation, is a very good thing. Unless of course, the Russian military adopts their atrocious behavior. Let's hope not, though.

[Xan]

I just read another article about the weird Prigozhin activities and it makes a lot of sense.  Maybe this was all a ruse so Putin could use the threat of nuclear weapons and then blame it on a madman -- Prigozhin.  Putin wants the world to take him and his missiles seriously.  He just doesn't want to shoulder the responsibility for it.  This could well be about nuclear escalation.

Quote

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177730/-This-Russian-Ruse-is-Clear-as-Day

 

[GreyhoundFan]

This is a lovely video.

 

[fraurosena]

Not about the invasion of Ukraine, but still Russia-related news:

 

[Dandruff]

The latest on Prigozhin:

Russian mercenary chief who led revolt was in plane crash, state media says

Sounds like he didn't make it.

[Xan]

Yep.  Putin killed another one.  I'm just surprised it took him this long.