2020 Election Results Part 8: Lawsuits, Qualified Biden Nominees, and a Pouty Toddler

[GreyhoundFan]

This is an interesting analysis: "One possible reason Trump’s false fraud claims took root: Many of his supporters may not know Biden voters"

Quote

A constant refrain from President Trump and his supporters following his loss in last month’s presidential election is bafflement that President-elect Joe Biden could have received more than 80 million votes nationally.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that this figure is itself suspect, though given both population growth and how polarizing Trump has been, it’s really not terribly surprising. But it’s easy to see how, if you’re Trump, it would be. After all, the president lives in a White House where most of his staff and advisers are loyal to the point of sycophancy. His media diet largely consists of his Twitter feed and conservative cable-news channels, where even interviews with Democratic politicians raise Trump’s ire. His forays out of the White House have, for months, been almost entirely to political rallies or to properties where his customers pay for access.

In other words, Trump lives in a bubble. What’s underrecognized, though, is that many of his supporters probably join him there.

In September, Pew Research Center released polling data showing that most Americans knew few people who supported a different presidential candidate than they did. About 4 in 10 supporters of both Trump and Biden indicated that they had no friends planning on voting for the other candidate.

That idea probably holds true not only for friendships but for communities. In 2016, we looked at precinct-level results to determine that a large percentage of voters in a number of states lived in neighborhoods where the margin between Trump and Hillary Clinton was at least 50 percent. The states where the most people lived in such neighborhoods were heavily ones that supported Trump.

We don’t have precinct-level data for the 2020 election yet, but we can look at preliminary county-level data provided by Edison Research.

In 2000, according to data from the MIT Election Lab, counties that supported the Democratic presidential candidate gave him a 15-point margin of victory on average. Counties that backed the Republican preferred him by an average of 26 points. Over the next five elections, both of those averages widened, with Republican-voting counties moving sharply to the right in 2016, when Trump first won.

Since 2000, the average margin in Republican-voting counties grew from 26 points to 43 points. The margin in Democratic-voting counties expanded less, from 15 to 23 points.

One thing to notice about that is that the average margin of victory in counties that supported the Democratic candidate in 2020 is smaller than the average margin of victory in counties that voted for George W. Bush in 2000.

Counties are poor proxies for population, of course. Part of the reason that Democratic-voting counties are less polarized is that they generally have a lot more residents. If we tally the number of voters in each type of county, there have consistently been more Democratic voters in counties that voted for the Democratic candidate by more than 50 points than Republicans in counties that voted for the Republican candidate by that margin. It is nevertheless indisputable that there are more places in the country which are almost homogeneously supportive of Trump than of Biden.

That divide between cities and the surrounding area shows up in another way. Last week, we looked at how counties had voted over time, including a look at how the results in 2020 compared to neighboring counties. If we look at that same metric since 2000, we see that the difference between the two-party margin in a county and the two-party margin in adjacent counties has grown on average over the past 20 years.

In other words, if Alpha County preferred Biden by 10 points and its neighboring counties Beta and Gamma preferred Trump by 20 and 30 points, the average difference between Alpha and its neighbors was 35 points (given the 30-point spread with Beta and 40 points with Gamma). In 2000, the national difference was 15.6 points. In 2020, it was 20.5 points.

Beyond personal relationships and geography, Trump voters are also enmeshed in the same news bubble as Trump. About 40 percent of Republicans say that they trust Fox News more than any other news source, according to polling from PRRI released last month, and Fox News viewers have consistently been far more likely to indicate unfailing support of Trump.

There isn’t the same monolithic reliance on the left. Fox News dominates ratings in part because it commands so much viewership from the one-third of the country that votes Republican. Democrats divvy up their attention among more news outlets.

The end result of all of this is a large group of Trump supporters who rely on Fox News for information, have no Biden-supporting friends and live in densely pro-Trump areas. While this is still a small portion of the country, it means that there are a lot of people who might find it hard to believe that Biden could attract so much support. A small portion of tens of millions of people is a lot of people — and if a small portion of that group is willing to attend rallies or tweet concerns, the volume of noise around the issue can be cacophonous.

Particularly if one of those voices belongs to the most powerful man in the country.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

"Biden to name retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as defense secretary"

Quote

WILMINGTON, Del. — President-elect Joe Biden plans to tap retired Gen. Lloyd Austin to be secretary of defense, according to three officials familiar with the decision. If confirmed Austin would be the first Black Pentagon chief.

Austin rose to become a four-star general before retiring in 2016 as the chief of U.S. Central Command, from which he oversaw U.S. military operations across the Middle East for three years. His tenure there included the rise of the Islamic State, which began seizing cities in Iraq in 2014, and the U.S.-led military intervention to stop it.

Austin’s selection could run into strong opposition from lawmakers who want to ensure civilian control of the military. As a recently retired military officer, he would have to gain a waiver from a law that states that any service member must be out of uniform for seven years before becoming defense secretary.

Biden previewed the timing on his Pentagon choice — one of the most prominent Cabinet positions that the president-elect had yet to name ­— earlier Monday, saying he would unveil his choice Friday.

 

[Ozlsn]

5 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Jesus could just have had Trump win to begin with.

 

Seriously, if that isn't the best evidence that White Republican Jesus is who these guys worship. 

[Ozlsn]

5 hours ago, church_of_dog said:

I sort of agree, but not wholly.  What about protests that are not aimed at a particular residence but are just moving down a street where there happen to be residences?  That's what I believe happened in St. Louis -- no one was protesting against or at that couple, just a protest march happened to be moving down the street past their residence.  At least as I understood it?

I have mixed feelings about whether it should be legal to protest on public land (ie the street) or private land with owner permission, aimed AT a specific residence.  I agree it's not nice, but I think the right to free expression and peaceful dissent/protest might outweigh the prohibition against protest at a residence.   Open to consider this more though.

Trespassing in the process of protest should be prohibited no question.

The march was moving down the street past their house, but it was heading to the home of the mayor of St Louis according to the BBC at least.  It was apparently a peaceful and non-weaponised march, but loud.

(Quick side note #1 - this was after the mayor did a Facebook live reading out letters from people asking to defund the police - including the full names and in some cases addresses of the letter writers. Which kind of lowered any sympathy - dox protesters, get doxxed in return...)

(Quick side note #2 - where the protestors were walking was private property, but there is video evidence that the gates were unlocked when the protesters turned up, opened and started walking through them. They definitely got smashed at some point, but by who is contested.)

(Side note # 3 Still doesn't explain why those two didn't, you know, just call the cops and stay inside given they "felt threatened" as people walked past. Rather than inflaming the situation by yelling at people and then pointing guns at them.)

For me it's the distinction between the professional role of the person versus their personal home life. Protesting in the street outside the mayor's office, at City Hall, outside commercial places they are speaking at - no problem. They are there in their professional capacity. Screaming abuse at them while they are having dinner with their family in a restaurant is quite probably very satisfying but crosses a line for me, as does trapping them to listen to your grievances while they are in the loo, tailgating them down the freeway, or standing outside their house shouting. 

And yes, trespassing and vandalism I am generally against, more so for private than official property. (I have a sneaking sympathy for occupy protests, mostly from uni days. Never took part, but they were entertaining to watch.)

[AmazonGrace]

Sidney Powell is appealing in GA.

Background for the voluntary dismissal:

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by AmazonGrace

[Dandruff]

13 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

Sidney Powell is appealing in GA.

The right-wing nut jobs have been willing to put time and money into this circus act for years, so why should they or the circus act be inclined stop now?  It's profitable BS.

I'm sure Trump would prefer to stay in the WH but, by refusing to concede, he continues to collect and generates a distraction for whatever schemes may be cooking up in the background.

[AmazonGrace]

Texas sues Pennsylvania

Happy Safe Harbor Day!

Ken Paxton may have done something he wants a pardon for. 

 

[Topaz]

13 hours ago, Dandruff said:

I believe it's generally wrong to target a specific residence.  OTOH, when I've read the occasional report about a sexual predator getting to go home vs. to jail due to errant judging I find it hard to fault people for showing up to share their disdain.

I understand the sentiment but I think in practice it’s still not right for a couple of reasons. The neighbours are probably already disgruntled about having a sexual predator on the street without having to deal with protesters. 
Also this information is often unofficial and can be faulty. There was an incident in the UK some years back where the tabloids got people riled up with one of their periodic paedophile scares. A doctor’s house was targeted by some idiots who didn’t know the difference between paedophile and paediatrician. 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[Ali]

3 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Texas sues Pennsylvania

Happy Safe Harbor Day!

Ken Paxton may have done something he wants a pardon for. 

 

He claimed there was a huge increase in absentee ballots cast. The voters in Michigan decided to allow no reason absentee voting in 2018. There is also a pandemic. I wonder why there were more people voting absentee?

He claimed the election laws were changed by "executive fiat." Good to know my vote in 2018 was meaningless too.

[Cartmann99]

 

[AmazonGrace]

The main argument in the Texas vs MI, PA,AZ,WI case seems to be that it's unconstitutional that a Democrat won an election because Republicans don't like it

 

 

[47of74]

Another day, another Branch Trumpvidian dumb fuck. 

Quote

A Michigan sheriff who defended the militia group that allegedly plotted to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) filed a federal lawsuit on Sunday alleging voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election.

Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf alleges in the complaint that "multifaceted schemes and artifices ... resulted in the unlawful counting, or manufacturing, of hundreds of thousands of illegal, ineligible, duplicate or purely fictitious ballots in the state of Michigan."

It seeks to block directions outlined in a memo from Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) to local clerks instructing them to delete electronic poll book software and associated files from the Nov. 3 vote "unless a petition for recount has been filed and the recount has not been completed, a post-election audit is planned but has not yet been completed, or the deletion of the data has been stayed by an order of the court or the Secretary of State."

Records obtained by the outlet show the instructions are in line with standard post-election procedures that both Republican and Democratic secretaries of state have set out before. 

Having seen a picture of this horse’s ass it looks like he never met a donut he didn’t like. 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

1 hour ago, 47of74 said:

Another day, another Branch Trumpvidian dumb fuck. 

Having seen a picture of this horse’s ass it looks like he never met a donut he didn’t like. 

He sounds like a horrible person, but I doubt very much his weight has anything to do with that.

Seems like there are many legit things for which to criticize him, not sure why his looks are relevant?

[AmazonGrace]

TL;DR: the expert has statistically determined that the election result for Trump and Biden was different from Trump and Clinton and thinks it's suspicious somehow.

[AmazonGrace]

 

[Cartmann99]

6 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

 

Wow, that's a loss for every state in the union. *snickers*

[AnywhereButHere]

https://apple.news/AAPd5DnG0SaGuYDTK08-P5g

Quote

The Supreme Court has denied a request from Pennsylvania Republicans to block certification of Pennsylvania's election results, delivering a near fatal blow to the GOP's long-shot bid to invalidate President-elect Joe Biden's victory

And he’s losing his pet Supreme Court too. Someone’s going to have a pissy fit soon!

[47of74]

17 minutes ago, AnywhereButHere said:

https://apple.news/AAPd5DnG0SaGuYDTK08-P5g

And he’s losing his pet Supreme Court too. Someone’s going to have a pissy fit soon!

Yeah heard about that.  If you’ll excuse me I got to head out and get a no contact delivery of popcorn in anticipation of the upcoming rage tweeting. 

 

[GreyhoundFan]

"Biden expected to pick Rep. Marcia Fudge of Ohio for HUD secretary"

Quote

President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate Rep. Marcia L. Fudge (D-Ohio) to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development, according to two officials familiar with the decision.

The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to confirm a decision that has not been made public. Fudge is a veteran lawmaker and former chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus who had been floated for other Biden administration positions.

The next HUD secretary is expected to reverse policies under its current chief, Ben Carson, that have eviscerated Obama-era fair-housing rules, protections for transgender homeless people and legal tools to meant to keep lenders, landlords and insurers from discriminating.

Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.), perhaps Biden’s most pivotal endorser during the 2020 Democratic primaries and a powerful Fudge backer, confidently predicted earlier Tuesday in an MSNBC interview that the Ohio congresswoman would be tapped for a Cabinet-level job.

Fudge declined to confirm her nomination in a brief conversation with reporters on Capitol Hill, saying Tuesday afternoon that she is “in a holding pattern.” She also said she has spoken with Biden and others in the transition team.

“Let me just say that — if I were to be named — certainly it’s an honor and a privilege to be asked to be in a president’s Cabinet,” Fudge said. “It is something that probably in my wildest dreams I never would have thought about. If I can help this president in any way possible, I am more than happy to do it. It’s a great honor and privilege to be a part of something so good.”

Biden has been under pressure from allies to select Black nominees for his Cabinet. On Wednesday, he is scheduled to formally introduce retired Army Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III as his defense secretary-designate. Austin would be the first Black Pentagon chief.

 

[AmazonGrace]

This didn't take long.

 

The Trump elite legal strike force has more positive COVID tests than court victories.

[47of74]

2 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

This didn't take long.

 

The Trump elite legal strike force has more positive COVID tests than court victories.

And probably more positive STD tests as well. 

[front hugs > duggs]

19 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

This didn't take long.

 

The Trump elite legal strike force has more positive COVID tests than court victories.

now it's 1 for each state + puerto rico!

[AmazonGrace]