Seewalds 31: Jessa’s Maybe-Baby

[AtlanticTug]

JB will have a hard time getting to 200.

First of all, there is no way that out of 19 potential women giving birth (daughters and DILs), only Jill will have a c-section or two early. Statistically just not likely ESPECIALLY given that the Duggar women at least seem prone to having well above average sized babies. So you have to figure there will be at least a handful whose childrearing will be severely impeded by repeat c-sections. 

Second, I very much doubt that the closer you get to the youngest group (Johannah on down) you will have the same zeal for reproduction as the older kids. A lot of the incentive for the older kids consists of media attention, perks like the TV show and ongoing stream of income, magazine covers, free travel, etc. No way are we watching Counting On in 10 years. The older Duggars will have oversaturated the market by then.

Third, you have Jana and JD who are "old". Now JD could conceivably (ha!) marry an 18-year-old fecund woman but I just don't see that sort of an age difference. My guess is neither of them gets anywhere near double digits.

Fourth, you will have at least a couple who, if not straight out rebelling against these gross beliefs and lifestyle, will elect to be a more modern conservative Christian, will marry likewise and will have a more manageable sized family.

Fifth, there will likely be at least 1 or 2 who don't have kids at all.

I just don't see how we get to 200...

[thinandfit]

I feel like it comes and goes with each generation - my parents were raised in large families and only had a few of us, but my grandparents were both raised in small families which is why they wanted so many children.

[tabitha2]

200 is not gonna happen I agree. Something between 40 and 75 is more likely. 

[kachuu]

8 minutes ago, tabitha2 said:

200 is not gonna happen I agree. Something between 40 and 75 is more likely. 

Even that makes my stomach hurt. Because i just envision that "family photo" with all the branch members and i immediately think of Warren Jeffs & all those pastel women 

[Ivycoveredtower]

2 minutes ago, kachuu said:

Even that makes my stomach hurt. Because i just envision that "family photo" with all the branch members and i immediately think of Warren Jeffs & all those pastel women 

okay this one kind of rubbed me the wrong way. the duggar's are many things many horrible things but I don't think I'd ever think to compare then to anything with Warren Jeffs. 

[SassyPants]

22 hours ago, Ivycoveredtower said:

TLC posted a clip of Spurg's first hair cut and it was sweet I think  Jessa seemed so normal in that clip. I can say a lot about Jess but she really does seem to love those boys. 

Never been a Seewald fan, but they do seem the most natural and fun family in the group- they should move away from the infectious host. All things being equal, they could have OK lives. 2 LOs can be fun, but even with an F list Tevee show, 10 kids would be a drag!!!!!! 

I disagree with every single thing that JB and M have done; every decision that they have publicly made (add the Bateses too), but I think the main reason that these folks have these TV shows is because they had all these kids and still physically look and act like regular, intact, social people. Their eyes aren't twitching, they don't stutter or barely function, which to be honest, if I had 19 children, I might be in an asylum somewhere far away. JB and M are attractive, seemingly fit  and engaged for their ages, people. They aren't as outwardly repulsive /impulsive as Derick. Gil and KJ seem very friendly.

I know these folks used their oldest kids, but how are they not Cuckoo for the Puffs?  Personally, i think that's why they still have shows. 

And I agree Jessa and Ben are knocking it out of the park. They are JB and M #2.

1 hour ago, AtlanticTug said:

JB will have a hard time getting to 200.

First of all, there is no way that out of 19 potential women giving birth (daughters and DILs), only Jill will have a c-section or two early. Statistically just not likely ESPECIALLY given that the Duggar women at least seem prone to having well above average sized babies. So you have to figure there will be at least a handful whose childrearing will be severely impeded by repeat c-sections. 

Second, I very much doubt that the closer you get to the youngest group (Johannah on down) you will have the same zeal for reproduction as the older kids. A lot of the incentive for the older kids consists of media attention, perks like the TV show and ongoing stream of income, magazine covers, free travel, etc. No way are we watching Counting On in 10 years. The older Duggars will have oversaturated the market by then.

Third, you have Jana and JD who are "old". Now JD could conceivably (ha!) marry an 18-year-old fecund woman but I just don't see that sort of an age difference. My guess is neither of them gets anywhere near double digits.

Fourth, you will have at least a couple who, if not straight out rebelling against these gross beliefs and lifestyle, will elect to be a more modern conservative Christian, will marry likewise and will have a more manageable sized family.

Fifth, there will likely be at least 1 or 2 who don't have kids at all.

I just don't see how we get to 200...

My parents are both 5-9"- we have some tall, thin family members, but most are smaller people. My dad is the tallest person for generations in his family. We were all 6-7 lb babies. My brothers are big guys. I have one tiny SIL and 1 average sized SIL. I am petite. My hubs is tall (until the next generation, he was the tallest in his family) and was a 9lb baby.

ALL 7 of my parents' GKs were born via C-section. Only 1 was a breech, 2 were emergencies.

My mom's sister had 5 GKs- all born by C-section. None breech, 1 emergency, 1 twins

My GD was born by C-section.

[Carm_88]

Haha Spurgeon’s face!

[takers401]

Walmart pickup is the bomb! I totally agree that my face mimics that when I have to do in-store full-blown grocery shopping with my 2 year old twins. They do really well, but they're still two. And I still want to drink when we get home.

[QuiverFullofBooks]

5 minutes ago, Carm_88 said:

Haha Spurgeon’s face!

He really looks just like Jessa there!

[Crazy Enough to Join]

Math for 200

2 or 3 kids never marry or are infertile

Jessa has 18 or 19

Jill peters out at 5

Jinger has 4

Joy has 20

Josh, Joe, Josiah etc. all have 8 to 10

 

easily could be above 150 grandkids

[QuiverFullofBooks]

Two hundred is a little over ten per kid on average. Right now it looks like Jessa and Joy will likely reach or exceed that (barring medical complications or coming to their senses) and Jill and Jana will not. Josh and Anna might hit ten, but probably won’t go higher.  JD’s number depends on whether he marries and his wife’s age, but I’m guessing 0 or 5-8. Jinger is fertile and young, but we don’t know how birth will go for her yet. Also, I’m convinced that they were using birth control, and I suspect Jeremy doesn’t want a huge family, so maybe 6-8 there. Kendra is very young and seems to be on board with the fertility cult, so they could have more than 10. No one has had twins yet - if one of the girls has the hyper-ovulating gene, she could hit a higher number. They’ll cruise past 100 within JB&M’s lifetimes, but it will be a long time before we know whether they will hit 200. Jackson could still be having children fifty years from now.

[Bad Wolf]

45 minutes ago, QuiverFullofBooks said:

 Jackson could still be having children fifty years from now.

Nooooo. 

[QuiverFullofBooks]

The CBS Evening News tonight had an interview with the grandson and great-grandson of President John Tyler. He was born in 1790 and President from 1841 to 1845. He was widowed, remarried a much younger woman, and he became a father for the 15th and final time in 1860. (He had the most children of any President.) His son Lyon, born in 1853, also married a much younger woman after being widowed. Their sons, born in 1924 and 1928, are both still alive.

[VelociRapture]

6 hours ago, Million Children For Jesus said:

If she isn’t pregnant, I will join you on the speculation bus that she is using preventative measures. The extra long gap after Henry seems deliberate since she has made remarks to the effect that having two kids is a lot of work, and that she was married with two kids within two years. Not that I felt that she was complaining, not at all, but merely alluding to the fact that one doesn’t need nineteen kids to be really busy, because two is still enough to keep a person busy. 

Jessa, if you can hear me... we know. We all get it. Two is a lot of work. Nobody needs 19 to prove their maternal worth. 

Of all the Duggar girls so far, she did seem to be the most promising one to hit 19. She is fertile enough with vaginal deliveries, but I don’t think she will do it. I think “God will lay it on her heart” to space her children and call it quits between 4-7, maybe 8 on the outside. 

I think our Duggars having repeat c-sections will also decide God has other plans for them and have fewer children. 

It’s possible. I do want to point out that people said the same thing about Alyssa Webster though - she sounded overwhelmed with two, she’s probably spacing somehow, she won’t have a third baby for a while... then she announced she was pregnant with her third. Zoey will be 15 months younger than Lexi. 

And as @justoneoftwostated, at this point none of the second gen couples other than the Smuggars have had enough kids to establish a pattern of some sort. 

(Again, what you said is absolutely possible. Just keep in mind it’s not a given at this point.)

[Ivycoveredtower]

11 minutes ago, VelociRapture said:

It’s possible. I do want to point out that people said the same thing about Alyssa Webster though - she sounded overwhelmed with two, she’s probably spacing somehow, she won’t have a third baby for a while... then she announced she was pregnant with her third. Zoey will be 15 months younger than Lexi. 

 

I actually at one point thought maybe Alyssa would have a small family she did say she wanted six but as fast as she's popping them out  and as young as she is 23 I think she just might end up the Bates that goes to 19.

I think Erin could also since she does seem to get pregnant easily now that her issue has been figured out but I also wonder if she will stop because of that and her hate of needles  that has to get really tiresome after awhile. 

 

 

[viii]

I don’t see Joy having 20 kids. It’s not impossible to say she had a vaginal birth with Gideon, but I would lean more towards c-section. 

[VelociRapture]

23 minutes ago, Ivycoveredtower said:

I actually at one point thought maybe Alyssa would have a small family she did say she wanted six but as fast as she's popping them out  and as young as she is 23 I think she just might end up the Bates that goes to 19.

I think Erin could also since she does seem to get pregnant easily now that her issue has been figured out but I also wonder if she will stop because of that and her hate of needles  that has to get really tiresome after awhile. 

 

 

I think it’s too early to tell with any of these couples to be honest. It’s possible the Websters will have a ton of kids, but it’s also possible they do have a plan for having only 6-8 and they simply want those kids spaced closer together. We won’t know until they either surpass their target number or they mysteriously stop having kids.

As for Erin, she has never had trouble getting pregnant. Her issue was with sustaining pregnancies due to a clotting disorder. If she remains healthy and continues seeking legitimate medical care then she could very well have a large number of children. 

(I do very much sympathize with Erin about the daily injections though. My OBGYN says I’ll likely need progesterone shots during my next pregnancy to try to prevent another premature birth. That won’t be for a while and wouldn’t even be for the entire pregnancy, but I’m already not looking forward to it. I’m sure Erin probably gets used to it to an extent, but that still has to be rough.)

[allthegoodnamesrgone]

Pulled up Google and this "news" article was there and I had to roll my eyes so hard I almost fell over.  The head line was Jessa comes clean about baby son's horrific skin disease. Seriously horrific skin disease?  Not sure why I expect more from a rag like Radar online.  https://radaronline.com/videos/counting-on-jessa-duggar-son-health-crisis/amp/

[JillyO]

9 hours ago, Ivycoveredtower said:

plus if Joy did have a c-section (we don't know yet) that would mean that so far Jessa has been the only Duggar daughter that was able to have a vaginal birth. I honestly don't see them being able to have a bunch of kids if it's just one c-section after another.  Anna seems to be about every two years right now so I think I did the math once and figured if she continued she'd get to about 14/15. lets hope not poor little M's  now of course they are marrying younger and younger kendra is 19 and having her first before her 20th birthday. but her mom only had 7 kids so lets hope Kendra has her mother's fertility and doesn't get to the double digits. Now Lauren's only 18 and her mom is rumored to have just birthed number 9 so she may have a big family. yikes.   

No way will Anna reach 14 or 15 kids unless she has at least two pairs of twins. If she continues her current 2-year pattern, she will have #6 at age 31, #7 at age 33, #8 at age 35, #9 at age 37, #10 at age 39 and #11 at age 41. Seeing as her spacing has slowly but surely gotten longer, and that fertility tends to decrease in your 30s and 40s, I'm assuming she will end up somewhere in the 8-to-10-kids range.

[fluffernutter]

What I want to know, is what do grandparents do for say, holidays, birthdays, graduations, (wait never mind they will probably not have traditional high school graduations), etc  for 100+ grandkids? My in-laws have nine grandchildren and just helping the parents out, gifting at holidays, going to their concerts/games/events/ and celebrating birthdays and such is a full time job for them. Michelle's full time job is going to be managing some kind of epic word document or spread sheet alerting her to birth dates, names, etc. It must be a completely different dynamic. 

[singsingsing]

I should ask my dad about this. I think his grandparents might have had close to 100 grandchildren. I know my dad has first cousins that he just doesn’t know at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if that ended up being the case for most of the grandduggars, especially as many of their cousins will have a 20-30+ year age gap between them.

[tabitha2]

Hell,By the time Mac has her first grandchildren Josie’s kids may be still be teenagers. 

 

[mango_fandango]

2 hours ago, allthegoodnamesrgone said:

Pulled up Google and this "news" article was there and I had to roll my eyes so hard I almost fell over.  The head line was Jessa comes clean about baby son's horrific skin disease. Seriously horrific skin disease?  Not sure why I expect more from a rag like Radar online.  https://radaronline.com/videos/counting-on-jessa-duggar-son-health-crisis/amp/

WTF?

Tabloid mags are a fucking disgrace. 

I wonder if the married Duggars keep a general eye out on what the media says about them. Even if they don’t read stuff themselves, they may get told by friends. 

1 minute ago, tabitha2 said:

Hell,By the time Mac has her first grandchildren Josie’s kids may be still be teenagers. 

 

Aren’t Mack and Josie the same age? 

[tabitha2]

Yeah. I just remembered that  

 so it won’t be quite that scary  

[mango_fandango]

I actually just checked out that Lily and Ellie blog and Henry does have eczema. Jessa has cut out some stuff as he also has had digestive issues.

But seriously, eczema is not “seriously horrific”!! It’s very common. It can be aggravated by allergies which could also be affecting the digestion. 

But still, tabloids are shit.