(Possible Child Sexual Abuse Content) Josh and Anna 34: Plea Deal in the Making?

[DottyC]

15 hours ago, church_of_dog said:

Daily Mail seems to think she is indeed staying there, and suggests Pris and David are watching the kids. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9869715/Josh-Duggars-wife-STAYING-house-arrest-ahead-child-porn-trial.html

Here in the UK it is known as the Daily Fail which should tell you all you need to know.

[AussieKrissy]

Oh lord I have this fear that he is going to get off on a technicality and they will be all like see Jesus saved him jesus judged him innocent. Denial denial denial.  And next time and I do believe there will be a next time… I shudder to think. I pray for a conviction to get him on the register and to hopefully knock some sense into his supporters. Sigh whole persecuted Christian thing will help them deny deny deny. 

[Glasgowghirl]

I don't rust the Scum or the Daily Fail. The lies the sun helped spread following Hillsborough left the families fighting for years to get the truth known and no one has been held criminally responsible for it, the death toll from it recently to 97 after Andrew Devine, who had suffered severe brain damage at Hillsborough passed away aged 55.

[RosyDaisy]

11 hours ago, AussieKrissy said:

next time and I do believe there will be a next time

Unless Josh is given a life sentence without parole (which he won't get of course) there will be a next time, and another, and another..... with each time being worse than the last.  I believe pedophiles can't be rehabilitated, they just get more clever in hiding their crimes.

[Coconut Flan]

I believe some people can be rehabilitated, but I don't think Josh can.  I think he's been warped too far and learned too early in life to parrot what needs to be said without doing any reflection or absorbing of discussion.  

[CrazyCatLady]

I believe some people can be rehabilitated, but I don't think Josh can.  I think he's been warped too far and learned too early in life to parrot what needs to be said without doing any reflection or absorbing of discussion.  

Exactly. You can't get better if you never believe you've done wrong.

[SorenaJ]

I believe not all pedophiles commit crimes, some can tell right from wrong (or cares that it’s wrong), particularly if they get outside help. 

7 hours ago, Glasgowghirl said:

I don't rust the Scum or the Daily Fail. The lies the sun helped spread following Hillsborough left the families fighting for years to get the truth known and no one has been held criminally responsible for it, the death toll from it recently to 97 after Andrew Devine, who had suffered severe brain damage at Hillsborough passed away aged 55.

I just still can’t believe it’s included in BBC News’ daily headlines right next to actual newspapers. It’s disgraceful.
I also can’t believe a single person would buy and read those pieces of shit. Just a testament to the piss poor critical thinking skills of too many in the UK. 
I know of someone who was legit bullied by Fail. Caused her so much distress.  

[Jencendiary]

It never fails. A man does something fucked up, and the discourse is about some non-offending woman's responsibility in the situation. 

[CyborgKin]

Leaving Eden Podcast has also done some episodes covering Josh, the Duggars, IBLP and others.  The main focus is the IFB.  One ep was on the ACE curriculum and schools.

[Idlewild]

I think, as others have said, Josh will have a difficult time accepting a plea deal. He’s been taught that blaming Satan is the way forward so accepting responsibility and actually committing to change his behaviour, rather than praying about it, is alien to him. As JB and M enabled this thought process, they too will have problems accepting how fucked up their son is.

As with most things Duggar, it may come down to money. The cost of not only the trial but also the prolonged effect that a lengthy trial with all the horrible detail and possible offloading blame on to others would have on the extended family’s money making prospects, may well dictate what happens. JB may decide Josh is expendable- let him take his punishment and be dismissed as a rogue sinner, and the Duggars relaunch themselves in 2022. 

[Snowless]

On 8/7/2021 at 5:36 PM, Nikedagain? said:

He is great! My hands down favorite podcast! Listen to his take on Stalin! 

 

 

I’ll have to check that one out.  I’m currently on Episode 3 of the Some Place Under Neith miniseries.

[DalmatianCat]

3 hours ago, Idlewild said:

I think, as others have said, Josh will have a difficult time accepting a plea deal. He’s been taught that blaming Satan is the way forward so accepting responsibility and actually committing to change his behaviour, rather than praying about it, is alien to him. As JB and M enabled this thought process, they too will have problems accepting how fucked up their son is.

As with most things Duggar, it may come down to money. The cost of not only the trial but also the prolonged effect that a lengthy trial with all the horrible detail and possible offloading blame on to others would have on the extended family’s money making prospects, may well dictate what happens. JB may decide Josh is expendable- let him take his punishment and be dismissed as a rogue sinner, and the Duggars relaunch themselves in 2022. 

How do lawyers bill in a situation like this? Is there a retainer that must be paid up front and after that it’s weekly/monthly/quarterly based on hours worked? Do they accept minimum monthly payments or does it need to be paid in full each month (or quarter)? How quickly do they drop clients when they fall behind on payments?

[hauntedoklahoma]

2 hours ago, DalmatianCat said:

How do lawyers bill in a situation like this? Is there a retainer that must be paid up front and after that it’s weekly/monthly/quarterly based on hours worked? Do they accept minimum monthly payments or does it need to be paid in full each month (or quarter)? How quickly do they drop clients when they fall behind on payments?

This depends on attorney. Probably a retainer, yes. But the rest of that depends on the attorney. In a perfect world, bills go out monthly and are paid in full monthly. 

[EmCatlyn]

1 hour ago, hauntedoklahoma said:

This depends on attorney. Probably a retainer, yes. But the rest of that depends on the attorney. In a perfect world, bills go out monthly and are paid in full monthly. 

We can probably imagine that JB is trying to negotiate on all payments (that is definitely his style) and that because he thinks he’s good at not paying full price, he may underestimate how much it will really cost.  This may extend how long the “negotiation” before getting to court takes.

[theotherelise]

Listened to Hunting Warhead podcast recently and the therapists they talked with who had extensive experience and education in therapy for pedophiles made it clear that the only way therapy can work is if the person wants it to work.

I think Josh would be more likely to try to harm himself than admit guilt. The feds don't allow alfords, right?

[EmCatlyn]

2 hours ago, theotherelise said:

I think Josh would be more likely to try to harm himself than admit guilt. The feds don't allow alfords, right?

IMO  -The only thing that might hold Josh back from pleading guilty is if he is so afraid of prison that he is willing to take his chance at trial even though he is advised that things will be worse if he doesn’t take a plea.  Then the question becomes if his father will pay for the expensive trial even though he’s been advised that things may come out which he doesn’t want to come out and that Josh will not be any better off (possibly worse) after a trial.

If Josh comes to see that prison is inevitable, he will plead guilty to anything just to get the best deal possible.  He can always frame it within “I was under a lot of pressure from Satan,” and tell his family that the csa porn get there by accident, while he (sinful horny Josh) was viewing regular porn, and when he realized the CSA was there he didn’t know what to do, but he didn’t really watch it.  etc.

Anna will believe any excuse he gives her.  His parents probably won’t, but they will pretend they do and subtly suggest that Josh may have been set up, that it’s all part of the liberal agenda, etc.   In short, I don’t think pleading guilty will be that hard for Josh, except that I bet he is really terrified of prison.  I could (maybe) see him “hurting himself” in fear of going to prison, but not because he had to admit guilt.  Admitting sins, repenting and being “cleansed” and forgiven is something he has done a lot in his life.

(I think someone who knows said the feds wouldn’t allow an alford plea. But I may be remembering wrong.)

[patsymae]

I was also in an abusive relationship, and I actually defended Brenda before I knew the whole story, but gotta say I can't be totally sympathetic to her. Knowing that your daughters are being routinely raped by their father for what, 11 years? And as someone said, she was fine getting all the Supermom accolades and having her family "wholesomeness" portrayed on TV, when money certainly wasn't an issue.

Of course we don't know what went on privately, but from what we do know there doesn't seem to be any indication that she reached out for any kind of assistance. or tried to work out any plan to remove herself and the kids to safely. Makes me wonder if the home schooling, constant supervision, always being together, even confiscating an adult's cell phone so she wasn't in contact with the outside world, weren't really orchestrated to keep the family secret a secret.

I guess I'm saying it's hard to know where the line between victimhood and complicity should be drawn.

3 hours ago, EmCatlyn said:

We can probably imagine that JB is trying to negotiate on all payments (that is definitely his style) and that because he thinks he’s good at not paying full price, he may underestimate how much it will really cost.  This may extend how long the “negotiation” before getting to court takes.

Quote

Good point. Shopping for bargain lawyers is never a good idea, and I imagine anyone willing to take this on will want a hefty, hefty retainer and would jump at the chance to drop Josh if a bill is even a day overdue. (although, lawyers correct me here, I think you need the court's approval to drop a client mid-trial).
Even the most asshat fundie lawyers might have qualms about low-balling this one. Don't see any of the looney tune politicians who leghumped the Duggars before (Huckabees?) or the Kirk Camerons of the world jumping in to claim religious or political persecution on this one.

$3 million is probably squat for this defense. Either JB will go bankrupt, someone with a brain will convince them to accept a plea deal, or Smuggar will eventually wind up with a public defender.

To lawyers again: How likely would it be that a plea deal would involve "treatment" and not incarceration?

 

[EmCatlyn]

@patsymae I believe JB has got Josh a very expensive legal team.  What I wonder is whether JB is going to be willing to pay all that he is billed or is going to try to negotiate the price down (and how that will end).

JB has never struck me as a person who is willing to pay full price for things.

I don’t think they can get a plea deal that does not involve prison, but that may be what they are hoping for.

[formergothardite]

12 hours ago, EmCatlyn said:

If Josh comes to see that prison is inevitable, he will plead guilty to anything just to get the best deal possible.  He can always frame it within “I was under a lot of pressure from Satan,” and tell his family that the csa porn get there by accident, while he (sinful horny Josh) was viewing regular porn, and when he realized the CSA was there he didn’t know what to do, but he didn’t really watch it.  etc.

Years ago there was a politician in NC who was arrested and charged with sexually assaulting a woman. He pled guilty, but then later claimed he only did that to save his family the stress of a trial. I can see Jim Bob and Josh trying to spin it this way if Josh takes a plea deal. 

[Antipatriarch]

I'm not a lawyer, this is not legal advice, and this comes from Wikipedia -- so take with a grain of salt. The Wikipedia article on the Alford plea sounds like it is possible in Federal court, though it is even more rare there than in state cases:

Quote

 

Alford pleas are legally permissible in nearly all U.S. federal and state courts, but are not allowed in the state courts of Indiana, Michigan, and New Jersey, or in the courts of the United States Armed Forces.

The U.S. Attorneys' Manual states that in the federal system, Alford pleas "should be avoided except in the most unusual circumstances, even if no plea agreement is involved and the plea would cover all pending charges." U.S. Attorneys are required to obtain the approval of an Assistant Attorney General with supervisory responsibility over the subject matter before accepting such a plea.

This form of guilty plea has been frequently used in local and state courts in the United States, though it constitutes a small percentage of all plea bargains in the U.S. This form of plea is not allowed in courts of the United States military. In 2000, the United States Department of Justice noted, "In an Alford plea the defendant agrees to plead guilty because he or she realizes that there is little chance to win acquittal because of the strong evidence of guilt. About 17% of State inmates and 5% of Federal inmates submitted either an Alford plea or a no contest plea, regardless of the type of attorney. This difference reflects the relative readiness of State courts, compared to Federal courts, to accept an alternative plea."

 

My guess is that Alford pleas are rare and discouraged, because a defendant who wants to come clean and avoid a trial is supposed to "allocute" -- make a statement on the record in court, in which he admits in detail exactly what he did wrong. That's supposed to be the quid-pro-quo for a plea deal. An Alford plea lets you avoid that and never admit guilt.

But here's the thing:

3 hours ago, formergothardite said:

Years ago there was a politician in NC who was arrested and charged with sexually assaulting a woman. He pled guilty, but then later claimed he only did that to save his family the stress of a trial. I can see Jim Bob and Josh trying to spin it this way if Josh takes a plea deal. 

Exactly. Even if he doesn't formally use an Alford plea, or tries and it isn't accepted, he can always plead guilty, allocute, and then spin it afterward. I suspect most of their family, friends, and fans will not appreciate the difference, and will still come away with the intended message: "I didn't do it, but I couldn't win, so I said what I had to in order to get the lesser sentence." Bonus points if "I couldn't win" is backed by conspiracy theory, persecution against Christians, etc.

[Coconut Flan]

Response to Josh's lawyer's latest discovery motion.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/cgbrb3caqup1ht7/Prosecution's Response to Motion To Compel Redacted.pdf?dl=0

[EmCatlyn]

1 hour ago, Coconut Flan said:

Response to Josh's lawyer's latest discovery motion.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/cgbrb3caqup1ht7/Prosecution's Response to Motion To Compel Redacted.pdf?dl=0

Very interesting.  

If I followed this correctly, three different officers found the CSA material on Josh’s IP address, but only one of them reported it to HSA and it was this report that led to the investigation.  The defense now wants the records of the two other officers’ investigation, but since the data from those will not be used by the prosecutor to make his case against Josh, the prosecutor is arguing that the data is immaterial—and in some sense non-existent.  There are no records of these officers investigating further because they didn’t. 

It appears that the defense is hypothesizing that the other (non-existent) “reports” would expose some error in procedure which would presumably destroy the prosecution’s case.  However the document counters that there is no basis for such a hypothesis.

Wonder what the judge will say.  It does seem to me as if Josh’s defense is clutching at straws.

[imokit]

An extra sticking point for Josh and JB.  This is all a woman's fault.  The detective who downloaded his CSA images and then reported and actioned them is female.

The lifestyle of the misogynist who abused his sisters and is treated as king because he has a penis, is being curtailed due to a woman.

If women minded their place and stayed barefoot and pregnant like the Duggars train their women to do, then Josh would still be running free!

[bal maiden]

Does anyone know why it may be that the other two officers didn't contact HSI about the abuse material he downloaded? Is this likely to be something weird, or is this just a normal thing that happens in law enforcement? 

[Alisamer]

6 minutes ago, bal maiden said:

Does anyone know why it may be that the other two officers didn't contact HSI about the abuse material he downloaded? Is this likely to be something weird, or is this just a normal thing that happens in law enforcement? 

I skimmed the first few pages of the document, and it LOOKs like the other two downloaded the material after the initial investigation was in progress, so possibly that's why? The original officer downloaded it in May 2019, and the other two in May 2021, it says:

Quote

According to law enforcement databases, two other law enforcement officers in Arkansas appear to have likewise downloaded CSAM from the user of the target IP over the BitTorrent peer-to-peer network on May 14, 2021.

Which was after HSI was already working on the case, from the sounds of things.

But it ALSO says:

Quote

On June 2, 2021, the United States provided the defendant with a screenshot reflecting that tw other law enforcement officers in Arkansas also downloaded CSAM from the target IP over the BitTorrent network on May 14, 2019.

Which is the same time. So maybe 2021 was a typo? It's confusing. But it sounds to me like the gist of what the defense was saying is basically "Hey, if two other officers downloaded the stuff, and the report was filed in May 2019, why did they not come knocking at the car lot until November, huh? Huh? Tell me that?"

They are trying to discredit the officer who did report it, I think.

Also, it made clear he didn't just possess the CSA material, he was sharing the material on bittorrent. Which I don't know enough about BitTorrent to speak about but that seems like more than just possession to me, to host the images where others can get them.

And the computer they found the CSA stuff on? The desktop background was a photo of Josh and his family. I have visions of him looking at CSA porn with Anna's face peeking at him over the top of the window. Yuck.

(Also be warned - that document is not well-redacted so it's possible to read gross descriptions of some of the exact stuff he was looking at. It's scribbled out, so you won't accidentally read it, but it's still there.)