Coronavirus 4

[Emma]

@47of74

I do hope it doesn’t come to that, but that is very noble of you.

[47of74]

12 minutes ago, Emma said:

@47of74

I do hope it doesn’t come to that, but that is very noble of you.

Thank you. That’s what a nurse from the local hospital said too when I told them last March. If Covid takes me I get to go see my aunts, uncles, and grandparents again and play euchre with my maternal grandparents. Grandpa for the first time and Grandma for the first time in almost 20 years. 

[louisa05]

So since the Thanksgiving break, numbers of kids and staff out with illness or due to quarantine are substantially down at the local high school (and I have the inside info due to being on email lists for staff). There are also no new cases or quarantines at husband's work. And statewide, hospitalizations are down. County numbers per day are slowing, too. 

I feel like all the rhetoric about people being so stupid for Thanksgiving in our area was overblown and people must have been cautious. 

Aunt update: She's still sick two weeks in but symptoms aren't serious. One of the people in her church with Covid died. But she informed my mother that that person was in her 70s and had an unnamed underlying condition unlike aunt herself. Aunt, in case you don't recall, is 77 and has high blood pressure. She's also still pretty sure she did not get it at church. Because their church, which now has 12 cases and 1 death, is a "safe place". 

 

[danvillebelle]

My niece, her fiance and my great-nephew are all down with Covid and quarantined at home.     No work, no sick pay.  My great-nephew is 5 and so down that he's going to miss his school Christmas activities.  And the one simple toy he wants for Christmas is apparently one that is in short supply and being price gouged, which irritates me to no end.  Grrr.  Thankfully they seem to be OK and their symptoms are not severe.

[Audrey2]

11 hours ago, 47of74 said:

Thank you. That’s what a nurse from the local hospital said too when I told them last March. If Covid takes me I get to go see my aunts, uncles, and grandparents again and play euchre with my maternal grandparents. Grandpa for the first time and Grandma for the first time in almost 20 years. 

Our grandparents may be playing euchre together. My Grandma loved playing cards, and euchre was her favorite game.

[Alisamer]

I drive past a drive-in Covid testing site on the way to work every morning. Today it was lined up like I haven't seen since early on in this mess.

[Ozlsn]

The University of Queensland vaccine candidate has been pulled as the molecular clamp they were using causes false positive results in HIV tests (it's a retroviral protein they were using as the clamp.) Right call, but I am so sad for the researchers who worked so hard on it (and because it was a really promising design). 

"The last 24 hours have been particularly difficult for the team," Professor Paul Young, the head of the UQ's vaccine team, said.

"We're devastated. The last 11 months we've been living and breathing this particular project. It's challenging times.

"But that's science."

Meanwhile Operation Warp Speed plans to vaccinate a third of the population in three months. I hope they can achieve that, because not a lot else seems to be working right now.

On 12/10/2020 at 12:48 PM, louisa05 said:

So since the Thanksgiving break, numbers of kids and staff out with illness or due to quarantine are substantially down at the local high school (and I have the inside info due to being on email lists for staff). There are also no new cases or quarantines at husband's work. And statewide, hospitalizations are down. County numbers per day are slowing, too. 

That's awesome, and I hope the numbers continue to fall.

[Smash!]

I just read that both the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccine just seem to prevent severe infections but not transmission. Which worries me as my country goes the Swedish way and just mitigates the pandemic so the ICUs won’t be overwhelmed. Less severe infections means less mitigation.

[clueliss]

Sharing this one because Leavenworth County is home to the Maxwells.

So the County rejected a mask mandate (this has been a bit of political game in Kansas from the beginning with Covid - The Dem Governor makes an order/mandate; then the Rep State AG comes along and says, hey, it's okay if the county opts out.  Repeat for every issue). 

However the city of Tonganoxie (About 10 miles due north of where I used to live before moving to CoMo 10 years ago) has passed it's own mask mandate.

https://account.kansascity.com/paywall/stop?resume=247772005

Note - stupid link is behind paywall that not even I can read. 

[Becky]

2 hours ago, Smash! said:

I just read that both the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccine just seem to prevent severe infections but not transmission. Which worries me as my country goes the Swedish way and just mitigates the pandemic so the ICUs won’t be overwhelmed. Less severe infections means less mitigation.

Can you please provide a link for this? I have not heard this. Thanks!

[mamallama]

Not a link or even scientific but the morning news interviewee I saw this morning said that the vaccine is 95% effective so 5% could be infected.  The experience was that people who were infected in the trials had very minor cases.  So what they are guarding against is those 5% thinking they're protected and healthy contracting the virus.  They might not know they're sick and therefore could spread it.

[Smash!]

I made more than one mistakes in the last post. Sorry! My mind seems to be slow, I got a bad cold and hope it’s not Covid. I should know by tomorrow.
The source talks about the Pfizer and the Astro-Zeneca (not Moderna) vaccine.
The source is a PhD-student in epidemiology from Cambridge, see here https://www.instagram.com/p/CInk1ccHypa/?igshid=1m6l32r24hbtd
It’s indeed just the asymptomatic cases that is questioned. She still says tough: “Absence of evidence is no evidence of absence. We simply don’t know that the Pfizer vaccine doesn’t prevent asymptomatic illness & transmission.” For the Astro-Zeneca vaccine she writes: “Data published yesterday suggest that the vaccine provided 70.4% effacy against symptomatic infection and 27.3% against asymptomatic infection.”

[Ozlsn]

From Science News 6 questions about the vaccines.

Spoiler

The recent success of some coronavirus vaccines in late-stage clinical trials has inched us closer to the end of the pandemic — a glimmer of hope in a long year of living with the virus.

Now, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is gearing up to consider emergency use authorization for Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine on December 10 and for Moderna’s on December 17.  But there are still crucial questions about how these vaccines and others will work once they get injected into people around the world.

While vaccinated people — especially those at highest risk of the worse COVID-19 complications — could soon be protected from severe illness and death, the shots may not yet signal a return to normal life.  

Here’s what to know about these first vaccines and what their rollout might mean. 

Q: Can you still get infected, and infect others, if you get vaccinated?

A: Possibly. None of the vaccines tested so far have been 100 percent effective so some vaccinated people may still catch the coronavirus. 

What’s more, neither the Pfizer nor the Moderna vaccine trials tested whether the vaccines prevent people from being infected with the virus. Those trials, instead, focused on whether people were shielded from developing disease symptoms. That means that it’s not clear whether vaccinated people could still develop asymptomatic infections — and thus still be able to spread the virus to others. 

In both trials, some people who got the vaccine did get sick with COVID-19, but not as sick as those who got placebos. One vaccine recipient became severely ill in the Pfizer study compared with nine in the placebo group (SN: 11/18/20). No one who got the Moderna vaccine became severely ill, while 30 people who got the placebo developed severe disease (SN: 11/30/20).

In a separate trial, AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford have reported that they found fewer asymptomatic cases among people who had gotten their vaccine than in a comparison group (SN: 11/23/20). That might suggest some protection against infection as well as illness.

In general, some vaccines are more effective at reducing severity of disease than reducing transmission. While these early COVID-19 vaccines will probably all have some effect on transmission, it remains to be seen how much or if one vaccine is better at reducing the spread of the virus than another.  

It is important to remember that you can’t get COVID-19 directly from the vaccines being evaluated now as none of them contain the complete virus. 

Q. So how are these vaccines useful?

A: These vaccines seem to reduce the likelihood a person will develop symptoms if they are infected as well as the severity of illness. That could be an enormous help in keeping people out of hospitals, preventing deaths and perhaps reducing some of the long-term side effects of COVID-19. Those include heart and lung problems that some people develop after a bout of the disease. 

It’s true that an ideal vaccine would greatly lower the risk of transmission. But not all do. Influenza vaccines, for example, may not protect against all infections, particularly when those shots don’t perfectly match the virus strains circulating each year. Other times, the shots lessen the chance of infection, but don’t completely eliminate it because influenza viruses mutate quickly and can slip by immune defenses erected by even well-matched vaccines. But even imperfect vaccines can make flu illnesses less severe. 

Q: Will people still need to still wear a mask and socially distance after being vaccinated? 

A: Yes. It takes several weeks to build up vaccine-induced antibodies and other immune defenses, and both vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna require a booster dose 21 to 28 days after the first dose. So the full protection offered by the vaccines would take at least a month to develop. 

And since the vaccines don’t work perfectly, and it’s not known yet to what extent they prevent infection, it’s possible that a vaccinated person might get the virus and be able to pass it on to others.  

Although the vaccines may help in controlling the pandemic, “people have to understand that this is not a magic wand,” Peggy Hamburg, a former commissioner of the FDA said December 3 during a news conference hosted by SciLine, an independent, free service for journalists based at the American Association for the Advancement of Science. It “doesn’t mean that suddenly we can abandon all the other activities that have been so important to reducing rates of infection.” 

In other words, people will still need to wear masks, socially distance, wash their hands and avoid large gatherings, especially indoors. Plus, it will take time to vaccinate everyone. Until that happens and until it’s clear how well the vaccines prevent transmission, other safety measures will still be needed, Hamburg stressed. 

My worry is that people will go "got a vaccine, back to normal" and stop the handwashing/mask wearing which will mean continued transmission. 

There are two questions about safety, and when pregnant women will be vaccinated and then this one about herd immunity:

Spoiler

Q: Can these vaccines help us achieve herd immunity?

A: Scientists are still working out how many people must have immunity to the virus to starve outbreaks of susceptible hosts and bring the pandemic to an end. Most estimates fall between 60 to 80 percent of a population, though how many people will need to be vaccinated to reach this point is still unclear and depends on vaccine efficacy. 

If vaccines were maximally effective at preventing disease and transmission, vaccinating enough people to precisely hit the herd immunity threshold would be sufficient. But less effective vaccines require more people to be vaccinated, to account for potential gaps in immunity. 

And like we’ve noted above, it’s still unclear how vaccines such as those from Pfizer and Moderna affect transmission. If these vaccines don’t prevent transmission at all, achieving herd immunity via vaccination becomes impossible. But such a scenario is very unlikely: By lowering disease severity, the vaccines could likely decrease transmission by reducing the number of days a person sheds infectious virus, for instance. For now, scientists await more data.

Even if the vaccines do end up reducing transmission effectively, reaching herd immunity globally will require equitable distribution of vaccines, which will be challenging given the logistical requirements of the current slate of vaccines (SN: 12/3/20). If people living in poorer, more rural areas cannot access the vaccines, outbreaks could persist in these regions and prevent an ultimate end to the pandemic if the problem were widespread.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Ozlsn

[Smash!]

In the end those are 1. generation vaccines. They aren’t perfect but it’s a start. We can’t expect them to work perfectly. Scientists will learn from them and develop more effective ones. I’m sure in a few years we will have ones that are preventing transmission.

[Becky]

Thank you @Smash!and @Ozlsn.  I think I have misunderstood the way the term "Immunity" is being used in this case.  I assumed that 95% effectiveness means that 95% of people who get the vaccine are fully immune and cannot contract the disease OR carry it to others.  It sounds like it is more like, anyone who gets the vaccine is 95% less likely to contract the disease or carry it, but they still have a 5% chance of getting it, and thus would be able to pass it to others.

[Dandruff]

On 12/11/2020 at 2:51 PM, Ozlsn said:

My worry is that people will go "got a vaccine, back to normal" and stop the handwashing/mask wearing which will mean continued transmission.

I believe a strong, enforced mask mandate will be even more important during the period when people are getting vaccinated and researchers are studying the effects.  Unfortunately, I suspect the mandates will continue to be largely weak and enforcement even weaker.  The ones who don't want to wear masks will find any excuse/loophole to not wear one.  It may be a long while before the population, as a whole (at least in the US), can feel safe.

[Duggarite]

On 12/11/2020 at 11:46 PM, Becky said:

Thank you @Smash!and @Ozlsn.  I think I have misunderstood the way the term "Immunity" is being used in this case.  I assumed that 95% effectiveness means that 95% of people who get the vaccine are fully immune and cannot contract the disease OR carry it to others.  It sounds like it is more like, anyone who gets the vaccine is 95% less likely to contract the disease or carry it, but they still have a 5% chance of getting it, and thus would be able to pass it to others.

Yes but it doesn't matter nor  a 100% is what they are aiming to.

 

There is something called herd immunity. If 95% of people are vaccinated and 95% of them are inmune, it is highly likely covid will stop spreading for good, because it will come to "dead ends" We here no one around is vulnerable to the disease. The idea is not get a 100% effective vaccine (it would be nice though) but to get something good enough to keep the death rate high and the healthcare system not collapsing.

A 95% effective vaccine is very close to what you get for measles, it has a 98% effectiveness rate (off the top of my head).

[adidas]

I’m confused. The orange loser Tweeted something about the US administering the first vaccine then he congratulated the USA and the world.

Has he not heard of the UK, where the first vaccine was administered a week ago? Why is he congratulating the world when he has directly led 300,000 people in his country to their death by downplaying the virus and refusing to take action? 

[Dandruff]

1 hour ago, adidas said:

I’m confused. The orange loser Tweeted something about the US administering the first vaccine then he congratulated the USA and the world.

Has he not heard of the UK, where the first vaccine was administered a week ago? Why is he congratulating the world when he has directly led 300,000 people in his country to their death by downplaying the virus and refusing to take action? 

Do you think there's something wrong with him?

[louisa05]

So my previous post that cases seemed to be down based on our workplaces wasn’t off base. Just saw numbers: in the last three weeks, cases are down 37% and hospitalizations are down 30% in this state. 
 

Again, all the ranting about Thanksgiving...people aren’t always as stupid as everyone thinks. 

[Ozlsn]

@louisa05 that's fantastic!! I hope it continues and your area can move towards normal quickly.

[Not that josh's mom]

I know the vaccine is a very positive step, so why am I hesitant to get it?

[OHFL2009]

53 minutes ago, Not that josh's mom said:

I know the vaccine is a very positive step, so why am I hesitant to get it?

I think (at least this is the conversation playing in my mind) it's because it's so new and there's no way to understand long term effects of something that has only existed for a few months. I don't feel like they cut corners with safety, because they still had to go through all the appropriate trials, but it still feels a little like being a guinea pig. That's not to say I won't get it, or that the benefit of getting it doesn't outweigh the risks, but I completely understand where people are coming from when they say that it makes them uncomfortable. We're not used to being "first in line" for medical treatments; we're used to receiving tried and true vaccines/medications/therapies.

 

[47of74]

A prominent local attorney passed due to covid-19.

Quote

Steve Hodge died Saturday at the University of Wisconsin Hospital and Clinics. He was 67. Family members and friends said Hodge died after a lengthy battle with COVID-19.

“He tested positive on Nov. 12,” said Alison Frederick, Hodge’s daughter. “He was sick for a week before that. He went to the hospital emergency room a couple of times, and then he was in and out of the hospital since Nov. 16.”

“He was playing by the rules with this virus,” Frederick said. “He wore a mask. He did what he was supposed to do. He would want people to be safe and take good care of each other, and to take this virus seriously.”

Hodge had been practicing law for nearly 40 years, primarily in the area of criminal defense, when he retired in 2017.

I didn't know him real well but I did see him at a couple events over the years after I went in to law school. 

I think you all know whose feet I lay this one at.

[Becky]

3 hours ago, Not that josh's mom said:

I know the vaccine is a very positive step, so why am I hesitant to get it?

For what it’s worth, my doctor was very reassuring when I asked her about it. She said that the procedure to create a new vaccine is well known and has been proven safe and effective over the years. She is confident no corners have been cut, she will take the vaccine herself and she will recommend her patients take it.

If you have a regular doctor you trust, you might want to reach out in order to get good information regarding the vaccine.