Government Response to Coronavirus: With Pence in Charge, We're Doomed

[hoipolloi]

More R congresscritters on the self-quarantine list:

[laPapessaGiovanna]

8 hours ago, SilverBeach said:

 Use common sense (hand washing is best), and keep your wits about you, there is more to fear from the regular flu at this point. 

No there's not. My whole country is on lockdown right now, trust me that it's not like the flu, for many many reasons. And it breaks my heart seeing that American authorities aren't taking it seriously.

[fraurosena]

10 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

the mortality rate from COVID-19 appears to be much higher than from the flu. 

I very much agree with most of your post, but I need to nuance this sentence a bit. 

From the WHO:

Quote

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Time explains it in layman's terms.

The WHO Estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4%. That Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

Quote

Nobody had ever seen the coronavirus that causes the disease known as COVID-19 before the current outbreak began in China in December 2019. So for context, it is often compared to a symptomatically similar disease we know well: the seasonal flu, which infects many people each year but kills only about 0.1% of them on average.

Many people were alarmed, then, when the World Health Organization announced in March that COVID-19 has killed 3.4% of the people who have caught it so far—a mortality rate far higher than not only the seasonal flu, but also higher than earlier COVID-19 mortality estimates, which were around 2%.

That estimate may say more about the inherent uncertainty in making these sorts of calculations during an evolving outbreak than it does about the true deadliness of COVID-19.

Since the COVID-19 outbreak began to pick up steam in China in January, experts have been scrambling to get a handle on the disease and the way it behaves. But they have also warned that estimates are not exact, and that numbers are likely to shift over time. One key reason: people with milder versions of the illness are underrepresented in official case counts, since they may not be sick enough to seek medical attention or realize they have anything more than a cold. Some people, research now suggests, may get infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, without showing any symptoms at all.

That means the total number of reported cases is very likely an underestimate—and by not counting many mild or asymptomatic cases, we’re likely overestimating the disease’s overall mortality rate. President Donald Trump, for one, told Fox News he has a “hunch” that the actual mortality rate is likely below 1%.

Looking at data from countries with robust testing systems does support the idea that the disease’s mortality rate may be lower than 3.4%. Countries that have tested significant numbers of people are generally reporting lower mortality rates than those, like the U.S., that have tested in far lower numbers and with a stronger focus on severe cases. This suggests that when testing networks are broadened to catch people with less serious illnesses, and case counts then reflect this range of severity, mortality rates go down.

The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%, for example. In the U.S., where only seven tests have been administered per million residents, the mortality rate is above 5%.

The chart below is a snapshot of testing and mortality rates on March 5, obtained through records published by, or direct contact with, each country’s department of health. The quality of the data per country range from extremely precise, such as in South Korea and the U.K. to fairly rough, as with Australia, whose department of health offered a rounded number. As for the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told TIME that 1,526 people had been tested as of March 4, but said this number “did not include testing being done at state and local public health laboratories.” We’ve chosen to use the figure of 1,895 that The Atlantic reported on March 6, which includes both the CDC count, and additional testing numbers their reporters discovered through contacting the local health departments of all 50 states and D.C.

[graph]

Few countries with significant testing capacity are reporting mortality rates above 2%, but Italy has proven an outlier. Even with 638 tests given per million people, the country is still reporting a mortality rate of nearly 4%. While the exact reason for the discrepancy is unclear, it could point to differences in the country’s testing strategy, the specific test it is using or something unique about the actual outbreak there.

Even when taking the current estimated global mortality rate of 3.4% at face value, COVID-19 looks more like influenza than other once-novel coronaviruses. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) killed about 10% of the people who got it, while Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) was even deadlier, killing 34% of patients. At least so far, COVID-19 does seem to be more lethal than the seasonal flu, but it’s closer to that end of the spectrum.

A more complete—and, hopefully, less severe—picture of COVID-19 will likely emerge as the outbreak continues, testing capacity increases and data are refined. Until then, stay calm and keep washing your hands.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Even though there's nothing funny about COVID-19, this made me laugh:

 

[hoipolloi]

From tRump's favorite reporter, Jim Acosta at CNN:

 

[fraurosena]

Matt Gaetz to self-quarantine after contact with coronavirus patient

Quote

Rep. Matt Gaetz is the latest member of Congress to go into self-quarantine after coming in contact with an individual at CPAC who has since tested positive for the coronavirus. 

Why it matters: Gaetz was seen traveling with President Trump on Air Force One about an hour before his office announced that he would go into self-quarantine. Gaetz's office reports that he is not feeling symptoms, but has received testing and is expecting results soon.

Between the lines: Gaetz received pushback last week for wearing a gas mask on the floor of the House as Congress weighed emergency coronavirus funding. Many viewed the stunt as making light of the situation. 

A citizen in Gaetz's Florida district died from the virus a few days later.

The big picture: Multiple members of Congress have self-quarantined after a CPAC attendee tested positive for the coronavirus last week. CPAC speakers included President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and hordes of congresspersons were in attendance.

The American Conservative Union said in a statement: "This attendee had no interaction with the president or the vice president and never attended the events in the main hall."

The attendee is currently under medical care in New Jersey and under quarantine.

I thought it was a hoax, to be made fun of, Matt? Funny how you start shitting your pants when you find out you might have been infected. Also strange how you could get tested so quickly. You're not even showing symptoms. Explain that to the rest of the American public, who there aren't enough tests for.

[GreyhoundFan]

 

 

[hoipolloi]

And then there are the REALLY FUCKING STUPID REPUBLICANS, like Louis Gohmert (R-Dumbfuckistan):

 

[Dandruff]

30 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

I very much agree with most of your post, but I need to nuance this sentence a bit.

Appreciate the nuances.  While I'm sure they're technically accurate (you're good at this), I don't think they apply well to me and others who are older with preexisting conditions.  I believe we're much less likely to be in the asymptomatic/slightly symptomatic categories than younger and stronger people.  Therefore, the lowered overall mortality rate due to the asymptomatic/slightly symptomatic groups wouldn't be especially applicable to us.  Our mortality rate is going to be closer to those who have gotten sick to very sick.

[fraurosena]

He is a staunch Trump supporter, and co-hosts a pro-Trump podcast. He's got symptoms after shaking hands with Paul Gosar.

[thread]

Rest of the thread under the spoiler

Spoiler

 

 

[Dandruff]

2 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

He is a staunch Trump supporter, and co-hosts a pro-Trump podcast. He's got symptoms after shaking hands with Paul Gosar.

Wonder if any of these supporters, especially the ones sick or in quarantine, are having second thoughts about their dear leader.  They really should, by now.

[fraurosena]

7 minutes ago, Dandruff said:

Appreciate the nuances.  While I'm sure they're technically accurate (you're good at this), I don't think they apply well to me and others who are older with preexisting conditions.  I believe we're much less likely to be in the asymptomatic/slightly symptomatic categories than younger and stronger people.  Therefore, the lowered overall mortality rate due to the asymptomatic/slightly symptomatic groups wouldn't be especially applicable to us.  Our mortality rate is going to be closer to those who have gotten sick to very sick.

The CDC confirms your point.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[JMarie]

10 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

He is a staunch Trump supporter, and co-hosts a pro-Trump podcast. He's got symptoms after shaking hands with Paul Gosar.

[thread]

Rest of the thread under the spoiler

  Hide contents

 

 

I'm kind of impressed Diamond and Silk are big enough names to be invited to CPAC. I mean, they're minority women who seem to be long-term unemployed, AKA the kind of people Trump wouldn't want around him.

(going back to my hatred of all things Trumpster)

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[hoipolloi]

51 minutes ago, JMarie said:

I'm kind of impressed Diamond and Silk are big enough names to be invited to CPAC.

Since they're among the relatively few African-Americans who publicly  & vociferously support tRump, it's not surprising they'd get an invite to CPAC. They've previously testified before Congress and have been featured at a number of venues.

[GreyhoundFan]

"Princeton requires lectures and seminars to go online-only, a temporary move amid covid-19 outbreak"

Spoiler

Classes at Princeton University will be held online and students are being encouraged to consider staying home after spring break, the school’s president announced Monday, a preemptive move intended to slow the spread of coronavirus on the New Jersey campus.

Princeton became the latest university to take dramatic measures to protect the health of students, faculty and others as the covid-19 outbreak spreads, with some colleges closing temporarily to disinfect buildings and some moving rapidly to virtual instruction. Columbia University canceled classes Monday and Tuesday in preparation for a shift to online classes. Stanford University and the University of Washington announced a switch to virtual classes for the remainder of the winter quarter, and Rice University plans online-only classes this week.

On Monday, Fordham University announced that, effective at 1 p.m., all face-to-face instruction was being suspended on its New York campuses. On-campus events were canceled through at least March 29, according to a notice to the campus, and classes beginning Wednesday would be taught online.

“These measures are in force until further notice,” Fordham officials announced. “We will be communicating as far in advance as we can regarding significant events such as Commencement and Jubilee," the statement noted, "but as of today we just don’t have enough information to make those decisions.”

The Navy Recruit Training Command, the boot camp for the U.S. Navy, announced Monday it would suspend guest attendance at its planned graduation ceremonies, beginning Friday. The ceremonies will continue and will be live-streamed, according to a public statement.

Also on Monday, a group representing the nation’s college and university presidents abruptly scrapped an annual conference it was planning to hold for 1,500 higher education leaders starting next weekend in San Diego.

“Our first priority is the safety and well-being of our staff and attendees,” the American Council on Education said in a statement, noting that California, New York and Washington state have all declared states of emergency, and that coronavirus cases have been confirmed in more than half the states. “It seems inevitable that the news will get worse in this regard.”

At Princeton, the new policies intended to increase social distancing will be in place through April 5, according to university officials, and will be reassessed as that date approaches. The measures were adopted even though, so far, no one associated with the university has tested positive for covid-19.

“While much remains unknown about COVID-19’s epidemiology and impact, our medical advisers tell us that we should proceed on the assumption that the virus will spread more broadly and eventually reach our campus,” the university’s president, Christopher L. Eisgruber, wrote in a letter to campus Monday. “They also tell us that the best time to put in place policies to slow the spread of the virus is now, before we begin to see cases on our campus, rather than later.” Acting now will also allow students to meet their academic requirements remotely, he wrote.

“We encourage students to consider staying home after Spring Break,” Eisgruber wrote. Princeton will also limit the number and size of campus gatherings, and restrict university-sponsored travel, as multiple other universities have done in recent days.

Any lectures, seminars and precepts that can be taught virtually will be, he wrote, beginning March 23 when the school’s spring break has ended.

“Though we recognize that a personal, ‘high touch’ educational environment is one of Princeton’s great strengths,” Eisgruber wrote, “we also recognize that these are extraordinary times that require exceptional measures to deal with a health risk that affects us all.”

Eisgruber spoke to the difficult choices university leaders must make in the face of the rapidly evolving outbreak, acknowledging “that these measures impose significant restrictions and costs on projects that matter tremendously to each of us. …” People have different views about how to respond to the risks and uncertainties but, he wrote, “I ask all of you to join in supporting these policies, which address a threat affecting us all.”

I know other schools are doing the same.

[Dandruff]

1 hour ago, GreyhoundFan said:

My first thought was that he's gone completely around the bend.  Second thought is that this is his usual garbage; that he's paving the way to NOT accept blame by spouting conspiracy theories - outrageous as it is.  Distract and deflect.  Conveniently, journalists would have attended the meetings that he and other government employees recently attended.

[clueliss]

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-09-20-intl-hnk/h_0e02a0feedc2294a33a7ed69cbe8b1fc

 

add Rep. Louis Gohmert, a Republican from Texas to the confessional contamination list

[SassyPants]

I wonder how Trump integrates a most probable Covid-19 pandemic in the US and beyond, with his germaphobic tendencies?

My husband had a really good point. This virus exposure and infection does not discriminate  based on ethnicity, nationality, size, gender, sex, pocket book, sexual orientation...It’s quite the equal opportunity organism. Must scare the hell out of someone who thinks s/he is above it all. Maybe this fact will strengthen collaborative efforts in best practice control and treatment measures.

[clueliss]

Six, this one is Mark Meadows who will be isolating and was supposed to take over as trump’s chief of staff.  
 

they guy from Texas was not isolating by the way.

[GreyhoundFan]

"This is the YOLO presidency"

Spoiler

Two weeks ago, after stocks had slid for days, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow advised Americans to “buy the dip.”

Unfortunately, markets kept falling. Since he first gave that hot tip to the American people, stocks have plunged another 15 percent.

Now, you might wonder why in the intervening days Kudlow kept repeating that advice — that is, why he kept saying “buy the dip” even as the stock ticker showed the dip getting dippier. You might also wonder why he and White House colleague Kellyanne Conway both proclaimed the epidemic “contained” last Friday, even as new cases were popping up across the country.

Or perhaps you wonder why their boss, President Trump, has lied so transparently about the severity of the epidemic — including by proclaiming that an early count of 15 confirmed U.S. cases “within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.” (More than 600 people have since been diagnosed.)

All of which is to say: Why isn’t the Trump administration even the tiniest bit forward-looking? Don’t these people realize they’ll look foolish when, within days or hours or even minutes, their confident decrees are proved wrong?

Alas, this is what happens when an administration governs like there’s no tomorrow.

The most important lesson Trump learned from both his business days and his political career is that there are no consequences. Ever. For anything. He can lie. He can cheat. He can move goal posts. He can break his promises about deficits or who will pay for the wall. He can reneg on international trade deals or private contracts for chandeliers.  

Yet he never pays a penalty, at least not politically. His followers forgive and forget.

Understandably, then, he behaves like the protagonist in “Groundhog Day” (at least in the first part of the film): He does whatever he expects to bring the biggest short-term payoff today, since he can count on a reset tomorrow.

Unfortunately for those he governs, the president has become almost pathologically incapable of thinking about the future. The problem isn’t that he merely plays down the value of tomorrow; he behaves as if tomorrow doesn’t exist. In economic terms, you could say he has a discount factor of zero.

Or in layman’s terms: This is the YOLO presidency.  

That’s the easiest way to explain why Trump and his staff seem reluctant to level with Americans and advise them to take precautions and avoid risky activities — such as flights or campaign rallies if you’re elderly. It’s how you explain why Trump has played down the risks of going to work while ill. And why he’s celebrated coronavirus counts kept artificially low by shortages of test kits, or a cruise ship held at sea.

Sure, such rhetoric might foreseeably decrease adaptive behaviors and increase the spread of the epidemic — thereby also increasing political liabilities for Trump.

But perhaps it’ll juice markets just a little bit today, and today is all that matters.

Of course, it’s possible that administration officials are just cockeyed optimists, preternaturally disposed to minimize mortal threats. This would seem at odds with all their past fearmongering over imagined dangers.

Or perhaps they’re not trying to mislead; rather, they’re genuinely ill-informed or incapable of making accurate, real-time risk assessments. Then-acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney couldn’t have known that his Conservative Political Action Conference audience was being exposed to coronavirus at the very moment he denounced media coverage of the illness as a conspiracy to bring down the president. But maybe he also lacked the wherewithal to think of this obvious possibility.

More likely, they just don’t care about the risks of saying something unreliable and wrong, because risks are by definition about the future.

Trumpworld is clearly counting on being able to change their narrative again on a dime, as they always have before. In a news conference on Monday evening, Trump said some “very major” economic measures will be coming, after implying in a tweet just hours earlier that the economy was not at risk. The White House seems to assume that tomorrow — when Americans confront indisputable evidence that more people are falling ill and dying, and that concerns about the epidemic weren’t part of some “Fake News” hoax to bring down the president — Trump can offer up a new narrative or scapegoat.

In fact, Trump has already begun testing out scapegoats. At a recent White House event, he essentially argued that there is no crisis, but if there were one, it would definitely be former president Barack Obama’s fault.

Perhaps MAGA supporters will once again come along for the ride. In the meantime, markets may continue to fall. People will still get sick. Some of them will die.

As Trump’s irresponsible rhetoric continues to threaten both the economy and public health, we befuddled critics will keep asking: Okay, but what about tomorrow? And Trump’s response will pretty much continue to be: What is tomorrow?

 

[JMarie]

Dr. Hannity: unless you are elderly or receiving chemotherapy, you don't have to worry about dying from coronavirus. It's a hoax.

(epidemiology experience: attended three colleges, didn't graduate from any of them)

Dr. Ingraham: China makes all our antibiotics. This is why the U.S. needs to be more self-reliant and bring those jobs back here.  And if you're not elderly or have a serious medical issue, use good judgment and wash your hands, "don't take a cruise maybe."

(epidemiology experience: bachelor's degree from Dartmouth, probably not in anything sciency, law degree from UVA)

There you go.  That's the information a large portion of the country is receiving from "fair and balanced" Fox News.

 

[Grimalkin]

5 hours ago, laPapessaGiovanna said:

No there's not. My whole country is on lockdown right now, trust me that it's not like the flu, for many many reasons. And it breaks my heart seeing that American authorities aren't taking it seriously.

      I’ve been thinking of you. Hope you and your family are well.