The Midterms: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

[fraurosena]

Sweet Rufus.

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AmazonGrace]

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1068778197888786433

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

"The Daily 202: A quartet of Democratic women now lead party committees"

Spoiler

THE BIG IDEA: It’s another first – and a fitting coda to what has indisputably been another Year of the Woman. After a historic gender gap propelled a blue wave, electing record numbers of female candidates in its wake, four women now lead the main campaign committees responsible for House, Senate, gubernatorial and state legislative races. They each replaced a man, though their GOP counterparts remain men.

These four groups, which have supplanted the Democratic National Committee in relevance by many key measures, wield immense influence over candidate recruitment and resource allocation. They also give their leaders nationwide platforms and access to major donors, which are among the reasons they’ve been steppingstones for many of the men who have come before.

“About time,” said Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, who beat three colleagues to take charge of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last Thursday. She defeated Washington state Rep. Denny Heck 117 to 83 and will succeed New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Luján.

Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo was elected Saturday as chair of the Democratic Governors Association at the group’s annual meeting in New Orleans, replacing Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. “The party is changing and becoming responsive to the people that we serve,” Raimondo said in an interview afterward. “Women are half the population, half of the brainpower and need to be at the table.”

Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was tapped last month to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, following Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen. “I'm honored to serve as the first Latina and as the second woman chair,” she said in an emailed statement.

Oregon state House Speaker Tina Kotek will win reelection later today as chair of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The first woman to win the post two years ago, she doubled fundraising and is now unopposed for a second term after her party flipped nearly 400 state legislative seats from red to blue. “Often the committees have worked in their own silos. I think having women at the head will facilitate better collaboration,” she said by phone Sunday night from her home. “It is a big deal, and I’m pleased to be a part of it.”

-- All four chairs say they’re eager to work together. Bustos said she took Cortez Masto out for breakfast at Pete’s Diner on Capitol Hill soon after she arrived in town last year, replacing former Democratic leader Harry Reid, and they played together on the congressional women’s softball team. “I have asked my team to get everyone’s cell numbers so I can make contact with them,” Bustos said. “Women, by our nature, are relationship builders.”

Bustos is the first female DCCC chair since New York Rep. Nita Lowey in 2002. Raimondo is the first woman at the top of the DGA since then-Kanas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius in 2006. Cortez Masto is the first woman to lead the Democratic Senate arm since Washington Sen. Patty Murray in 2012. There’s no precedent for women leading the various committees at once.

-- Meanwhile, men continue to command all four of the Republican campaign committees. Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts replaced Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam as chairman of the Republican Governors Association this past Thursday in Scottsdale. House Republicans voted for Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.) to succeed Steve Stivers (Ohio) during their leadership elections. Senate Republicans elected Todd Young (Ind.) to sub out for Cory Gardner (Colo.). Former Florida attorney general Bill McCollum has been the longtime chair of the Republican State Leadership Committee.

The Republican National Committee is led by Ronna McDaniel, who was promoted when Reince Priebus resigned to become White House chief of staff. Trump says he’ll keep her on for his reelection effort.

-- For their part, several House Republican women are frustrated with GOP leadership for snubbing their female colleagues since the election. For example, Emmer became NRCC chair because he got incoming Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s blessing over Rep. Ann Wagner, who represents the St. Louis suburbs. Rep. Mimi Walters (Calif.) had planned to seek the post and was reportedly making calls on Election Day about her bid, but she withdrew after losing reelection.

“After dutifully serving on the less-than-desired House ethics panel, Representative Susan Brooks of Indiana lost her very-much-desired post on the steering committee, which controls committee assignments, to a male colleague,” today’s New York Times notes. “Representative Kay Granger, a long-serving lawmaker from Texas, was nearly denied the ranking member slot on the House Appropriations Committee for a more junior male colleague, winning the post by a single vote on the third ballot. … ‘If we don’t learn some lessons from this election, we will not be a majority party,’ said [Wagner].”

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) says she’ll use her PAC to help more women win Republican primaries in 2020. “There has been close to no introspection in the GOP conference and really no coming to grips with the shifting demographics that get to why we lost those seats,” she told Jonathan Martin.

-- In an interview on Saturday afternoon, Bustos explained her theory of the case for holding the Democratic majority in 2020. She defeated an incumbent Republican in 2012 and then beat him again in a 2014 rematch by a bigger margin. Bustos won by 24 points this year, the largest margin of victory for any House Democrat in a district that Trump carried in 2016. This ability to win in a tough district made her compelling to colleagues. After all, Democrats will need to defend 31 seats two years from now in districts Trump carried in 2016 – when he will again be on the ballot.

After the last election, Bustos partnered with Robin Johnson, a political science professor at a college in her district, to study Democrats who have been able to win in the heartland. They interviewed 72 Democrats from eight Midwestern states and wrote a 52-page report. (Read it here.)

Bustos said the three fundamentals for members to win in tough districts are to work hard, fight for your constituents and get results for your region. She says House Democrats will pass bills that would expand infrastructure, bring down prescription drug prices and tighten ethics rules to demonstrate that they’re on the side of the people who gave them the majority.

-- Raimondo, the new DGA chair, noted that six Democratic women won governors races this year, the most ever. Four years ago, she was the first woman elected governor of Rhode Island. Janet Mills just broke that glass ceiling in Maine. Overall, Democrats picked up seven governorships this year, including in three states Trump carried. Two of those three new governors are women: Laura Kelly in Kansas and Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan.

Next year brings a tough map for Raimondo. The three governors races of 2019 will be in Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi. But she expressed confidence that Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards can win a second term in Louisiana. “I know we will be competitive in Kentucky and Mississippi,” she said. “They won’t be easy, but we’re going to have great candidates and we’re going to get behind them. … 2018 proved we can win anywhere.”

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was elected vice chair this weekend, which positions him to succeed Raimondo next year. He said it’s “a huge badge of honor” for the DGA to be led by a woman. “I think it’s a huge deal,” he said. “It’s a statement that we are the party that is the inclusive party, that we stand for equal access and equal opportunity.”

-- Kotek, the DLCC leader, noted that victories won by female candidates this year will help ensure long-term changes to the political system. About 1,200 Democratic women were elected to state legislatures in the midterms, for example. “When you see that sea change of candidates, now they are the incumbents. They are the folks who will run again. They are building a pipeline of new faces and new perspectives. You don’t go backwards from that,” said Kotek, who became the first openly lesbian speaker of any state House in America in 2013.

In her home state of Oregon, 58 percent of the House Democratic caucus is now female. She believes this will change public policy. “When you see better representation, you’re going to see different types of policy because you’re bringing in different perspectives,” she said. “So I know it will change the policy landscape. I would even argue that the level of civility that you will see in legislative chambers across the country will also improve. Because women talk before we fight.”

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

I wasn't sure where to post this: "After a historic loss, the GOP needs to change course. Here’s why it can’t."

Spoiler

Republicans suffered a historic defeat in the 2018 election, losing a net of 40 seats in the House, six governorships, hundreds of state legislative seats and six state legislative chambers. Yet as the New York Times reports, if you were viewing from the outside, you’d think they were convinced that everything is fine and dandy:

Yet nearly a month after the election, there has been little self-examination among Republicans about why a midterm that had seemed at least competitive became a rout.

President Trump has brushed aside questions about the loss of the chamber entirely, ridiculing losing incumbents by name, while continuing to demand Congress fund a border wall despite his party losing many of their most diverse districts. Unlike their Democratic counterparts, Republicans swiftly elevated their existing slate of leaders with little debate, signaling a continuation of their existing political strategy.

And neither Speaker Paul D. Ryan nor Representative Kevin McCarthy, the incoming minority leader, have stepped forward to confront why the party’s once-loyal base of suburban supporters abandoned it — and what can be done to win them back.

I’m sure there are liberals who would look at this and say, “Ha ha, what a bunch of dopes.” But I have some sympathy for the quandary Republicans find themselves in, because even if they wanted to change course to appeal to a broader electorate in a country that grows more diverse by the day — and some of them do — it’s almost impossible for them to do so. They’re trapped.

The first reason is that parties are not dictatorships, where someone can just decide that a new approach is needed and then implement it. There are a variety of different people and forces within the party — politicians, interest groups that make up the coalition, the voters themselves — that each have their own ideas and incentives, and may be pulling in different directions. As we’ve seen with the GOP’s struggles on immigration over the last decade or so, the party’s leaders can have a clear idea about where they want to go but be overruled by voters who don’t buy in.

When parties do change, furthermore, it usually happens as the result of a process that plays out over years. The best recent example is what happened in the Democratic Party in the 1980s and 1990s. After Walter Mondale’s defeat in the 1984 presidential election, a group of centrists decided that the party had become too liberal and too complacent, and mounted an effort, centered around the Democratic Leadership Council, to pull it rightward. The centrists spent the next few years making political and policy arguments to their fellow Democrats about why their party couldn’t win if it didn’t change, especially on issues such as crime and welfare to signal to voters that Democrats could be “tough,” particularly on poor people and racial minorities. It may be hard to remember now, but at the time it seemed that Republicans had a lock on the White House; by the time President George H.W. Bush’s term was over, the GOP had controlled the executive branch for 20 of the previous 24 years.

In 1992, the DLC claimed victory when one of its former chairmen, Bill Clinton, became president and went on to initiate much of its “third way” agenda. But nothing about that was inevitable. Clinton was an unusually talented politician who also had the good fortune of running against an incumbent in the wake of a recession. Had circumstances been different — a more charismatic liberal who won the 1992 nomination, for instance — the centrists might have lost the debate within the party.

Circumstance is important in other ways, too. Most of the time, parties don’t have to change after a defeat; all they have to do is wait for circumstances to change. For instance, in 2008 the Republicans suffered terrible losses: Not only was Barack Obama elected president, but also they lost a net of 21 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. They didn’t respond with some kind of ideological reorientation; instead, they just worked to get their base as angry as possible at Obama, which led them to a huge victory and a retaking of the House just two years later.

So it wouldn’t be completely crazy for Republicans to look around and say they’re actually doing pretty well, all things considered, and they just need to be patient. But even for those who don’t agree, there’s not much in the way of an organized force promoting their side of the argument. Have you heard of the Republican Main Street Partnership? Probably not.

That’s one of the biggest reasons why a genuine change of course is so hard for Republicans: As a result not only of the recent intensification of polarization but also trends in party membership dating back to the post-civil rights realignment that began in the 1960s, there just aren’t many moderates left in the party to make the case. And the typical Republican in Congress represents a deeply conservative district or state, where the only thing they fear is a primary challenge from their right.

After the 2018 election that’s even more true than it was before. Many of the members from swing districts were defeated, leaving the remaining caucus more conservative and less interested in a move to the center. Their voters are also under the influence of an immensely powerful conservative media apparatus whose business model depends on stoking rage and resentment, which further prevents moderates from gaining a foothold.

Finally, there’s one gigantic reason Republicans can’t change course: Donald J. Trump. The party is inevitably defined by the president, and this president believes that the only path to political success is feeding the angriest instincts of his base. That’s what he did in 2016, that’s what he did in 2018, and that’s what he’s going to do in 2020. You might have Republican candidates for other offices who try to run more moderate campaigns, but their message will be overwhelmed by what’s coming from the White House.

So for at least the next two years, the GOP is going to be exactly what it is now: a party devoted to the interests of the wealthy and large corporations, animated by xenophobia, gripped by climate denial and committed to the maintenance of political division. It might become something else someday, but it certainly won’t in the near future.

 

[fraurosena]

8 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

So for at least the next two years, the GOP is going to be exactly what it is now: a party devoted to the interests of the wealthy and large corporations, animated by xenophobia, gripped by climate denial and committed to the maintenance of political division. It might become something else someday, but it certainly won’t in the near future.

This may well be true, and it will eventually be the death of the party. The vast majority of the people don't agree with them, and the wins in the midterms have given the eligible voters a taste of their voting power. Those still clinging to the party now because of conservative beliefs will turn away from the rabid angry mob in the coming months and join the forces ousting the ugly remnants of the Rupugliklan party. The 2020 elections will obliterate what's left of them after the fallout of the presiduncy inevitably disintegrating next year. 

[AmazonGrace]

This is insane 

 

[fraurosena]

Uh-oh.

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[fraurosena]

Not unexpected, but... damn.

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AmazonGrace]

This is so disturbing. 

 

[formergothardite]

22 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

 

The GOP in NC pretty much went openly insane when they lost the governorship. They were so confident they would keep that and it completely blew them out of the water when a democrat won. They aren't going to give up power easily and they know the only way to keep power is to be corrupt. 

[fraurosena]

Oh. How... unsurprising.

 

[fraurosena]

 

[fraurosena]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

The Nib has an excellent flowchart. "How Democracy Works"

I'd copy it here, but it's too large. It's worth a look.

[GreyhoundFan]

 "Trump ally who served on voter integrity panel expresses concern about fraud in North Carolina"

Spoiler

Kris Kobach, an ally of President Trump who served on a voter integrity panel, expressed worry Thursday that Republican fraud might have tainted a North Carolina congressional election, becoming one of the most prominent members of the GOP to publicly express alarm about the race.

“Based on what I have read, I am very concerned that voter fraud did occur,” Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, said in a telephone interview with The Washington Post. He said it was unclear whether the alleged wrongdoing was broad enough to change the outcome of the election.

Kobach’s comments contrasted with many other Republican elected officials, including Trump and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who have opted not to comment on the allegations roiling North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District.

The posture of Trump and other top Republicans for much of this week marked a departure from the recently concluded Florida recount, in which the president and fellow Republicans leveled unsubstantiated claims about Democratic malfeasance.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has not been shy about alleging fraud in elections. Without presenting evidence, he told lawmakers last year that between 3 million and 5 million illegal ballots caused him to lose the popular vote. He also formed a now-defunct commission to probe alleged voter fraud, with Vice President Pence as chairman and Kobach as vice chairman.

North Carolina officials are examining whether an operative who ran a get-out-the-vote effort for the campaign of Republican Mark Harris illegally collected or tampered with absentee ballots.

Harris, who topped Rep. Robert Pittenger in the Republican primary in the spring, finished ahead of Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes in the Nov. 6 vote. But the state has not certified the results, and on Thursday McCready withdrew his concession to Harris.

Democrats and at least one former Republican official have accused Trump and GOP leaders of partisanship in holding back in their rhetoric when it comes to North Carolina.

“Because it is the Republicans whose hands have been caught in that proverbial election fraud cookie jar,” said former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) called the situation an “inconvenient truth” for the GOP.

The North Carolina operative, Leslie McCrae Dowless, who told the Charlotte Observer that he did not commit any wrongdoing, declined to comment Thursday. “I’m just not giving any comment at this time,” he told reporters and photographers in front of his house in Bladenboro, adding, “No disrespect to anybody.”

The Harris campaign has said it was not aware of illegal activities.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that in the days immediately after the primary, Pittenger suspected that something was not right.

Aides to Pittenger told the executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party and a regional political director for the National Republican Congressional Committee that they believed fraud had occurred, according to people familiar with their discussions.

An NRCC spokesman denied that Pittenger’s campaign raised the possibility of fraud in the primary.

Asked Thursday before The Post’s story was published whether he was concerned about potential fraud in the district, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) replied, “I trust the North Carolina Board of Elections to take whatever action they feel is necessary.”

Burr sidestepped a question about whether it was important for the president and other Republican leaders to speak out. “I think the appropriate thing is for the North Carolina Board of Elections to do their job,” he said.

On Wednesday, Republican senators had little to say about North Carolina.

“I don’t know any details about that,” said Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.). “But I’m concerned about Broward County [Fla.], I’m concerned about a couple of races in California, we had a situation in Georgia that [was] questionable,” he added, pointing to other states where Republicans have raised concerns.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) also mentioned Broward County, a Democratic stronghold in his state where he and other Republicans criticized the vote-tallying process during the recount in the gubernatorial and Senate races. But he had little to say about North Carolina.

“I don’t know anything about the case,” Rubio said. “I’ve just heard, you know, headlines, but I haven’t read it in depth.”

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said he had not paid attention to the North Carolina situation. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said: “I’m afraid I’m not an expert. I don’t know anything about it, really. I saw a headline, that’s it.”

Democratic lawmakers have had much more say.

“This is bigger than that one seat,” House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) said Thursday. “This is about undermining the integrity of our elections.”

Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) let out a laugh Wednesday when asked about North Carolina. “You couldn’t write the script any better,” he said juxtaposing the alleged GOP fraud with conservative efforts to tighten voter ID laws and limit early voting periods.

Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) said, “The entire election should be redone, all the way back to the primary.”

This week Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), incoming House majority leader, suggested that Democrats, who will control the House in January, may not seat Harris if he is certified the winner.

AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for Ryan, said, “There is an ongoing investigation by state officials, and the speaker believes that is appropriate.”

During a post-election interview with The Post, Ryan voiced some bewilderment about balloting in California, where Democrats performed well, though he stopped short of accusing the state of wrongdoing.

Dallas Woodhouse, the North Carolina GOP executive director, told The Post on Thursday that if the state elections board can “show a substantial likelihood” that possible fraud could have changed the outcome of November’s vote, “then we fully would support a new election.”

Representatives for Trump and Pence did not respond to requests for comment on Thursday.

Kobach, who with Trump’s support made an unsuccessful bid for governor, said: “Voter fraud happens on both sides of the aisle. And if nothing else, I’m glad Democrats are acknowledging that it exists.”

 

[onekidanddone]

12 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

 

It should be 42 because that is the answer to life, the universe, and everything.

[Maggie Mae]

1 hour ago, onekidanddone said:

It should be 42 because that is the answer to life, the universe, and everything.

With all the talk of "41" these last few days, I'm now wondering how Clinton is the answer to life, the universe, and everything! ?

[AmazonGrace]

 

He sounds nice.