Presidential Polling Updates

[RoseWilder]

I just read a fantastic article about how the sexual assault scandal has only just now begun to catch up to Trump in the polls and they expect his numbers to sink even further in the coming days!

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/17/1583663/-Big-Changes-in-Polling-Numbers-Trump-Collapse-Begins

I can't decide which part of the article was my favorite. This is a strong contender: 

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I posted a diary this morning about how after 8 days with the average polling data showing Hillary's national lead stuck between 5.9% and 6.0% (in polls showing a 4-way race of likely voters), a bunch of new polls in the last two days has that number finally beginning to rise.  It was 6.0 last night, 6.3 this morning and now stands at 6.6 points.  After 8 days of no movement, to suddenly see it moving more than half a point in less than 24 hours shows that something big is happening.  Poll averages don't move fast, so this sort of jump is eye-opening.  It seems to indicate that the rise will continue for some time.  

But this part was amazing as well: 

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So, if you’ve been concerned that the polls have not been reflecting a big Trump Drop since October 7th, this looks like it could be finally starting.  If this is the Dam Breaking, then the polls might begin to change very rapidly.  Once public opinion reaches a critical breaking point, then it seems to spread virally. 

And I definitely have a soft sport in my heart for this part too: 

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There is one final consideration...  The effects of enthusiasm, ground game and GOP infighting are not likely to show up in polls.  So, if those factors are working in Hillary's favor (and nearly everyone thinks they are), then she may out-perform her polls in election day by some amount.  How much?  Let's discuss that in the comments.  I figure a minimum of 2 points and no more than 5 points.

 

[RoseWilder]

A USA Today/Rock the Vote Poll revealed that Hillary Clinton shows record support among Millenials: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/18/1583928/-USA-TODAY-Rock-the-Vote-Poll-finds-record-support-for-Clinton-among-Millennials-68-20

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Great news for Hillary and down ballot Democrats. If Millennials turn out at this level, it would exceed Obama’s support among adults 18-34 year old in 2012 and create a wave election!

Hillary, with great help from Bernie, has consolidated his Millennial support for the Democratic ticket.

8 in 10 of his supporters are backing Clinton. The article does discuss enthusiasm and whether Millennials will vote. We do know that turnout with this age group is always a concern, but I believe this election is too important for them to sit out and they will be out in force.

 

[RoseWilder]

The Democrats now have a 76% chance of taking back the Senate. Every time I check, the numbers have gone up again!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

[AmazonGrace]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/19/half-of-young-americans-prefer-meteor-apocalypse-to-donald-trump-presidency

53% of young Americans prefer a giant meteor to Trump presidency

[sophie10130]

23 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/19/half-of-young-americans-prefer-meteor-apocalypse-to-donald-trump-presidency

53% of young Americans prefer a giant meteor to Trump presidency

Can confirm. We know the meteors. We know the meteors really well. We all support the meteors.

[RoseWilder]

Trump shrinking electoral map: 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange

 

[Palimpsest]

^^^ Still tied in Ohio though.  The ultimate bellwether state.  I'd like to see Clinton win Ohio.

[Cartmann99]

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A University of Houston poll published on Tuesday found Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by only three percentage points, within the margin of error, in a four-way race. Also that day, a Washington Post/SurveyMonkey pollpegged Trump’s advantage at only two points, the same as in Florida.

Texas’s 38 electoral college votes, second only to California, make it the ultimate wishlist item for Democrats. For Republicans it is like a vital organ: essential for the body’s survival but taken for granted, almost forgotten, until something starts to go wrong.

 

California 55+ Texas 38 + New York 29 = 122 electoral votes

If Florida goes blue this year, that's a total of 151 electoral votes.

C'mon sane Floridians and Texans, let's do this!! 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/22/democrats-texas-hillary-clinton-polls-donald-trump

 

[clueliss]

Looks like there are indications that Trump could lose Johnson County Kansas:

http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/steve-rose/article109474362.html

This is a more moderate Republication part of Kansas traditionally.  However it is where a lot of money in the state is.  I might be really fascinated with the by county election map in the next month.  Kansas usually only has a blue county for Douglas (Lawrence).  Sometimes in Wyandotte (more urban) and rarely in Sedgewick (Wichita). 

 

[formergothardite]

On 10/21/2016 at 10:38 AM, RoseWilder said:

Trump shrinking electoral map: 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange

 

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That’s similar to Clinton’s 3.6-point leads in both Nevada and North Carolina, two states that have remained stubbornly close

 Maybe for once NC won't vote for something terrible. I'm shocked Clinton is leading in NC. 
 

[VelociRapture]

4 hours ago, formergothardite said:

 Maybe for once NC won't vote for something terrible. I'm shocked Clinton is leading in NC. 
 

Woah, woah. NC voted Obama that one time. It hasn't been all terrible choices. 

[formergothardite]

1 hour ago, VelociRapture said:

Woah, woah. NC voted Obama that one time. It hasn't been all terrible choices. 

That is true. I've forgotten since it seems like recently North Carolina has made some really, really bad decisions. 

[Howl]

Just posted about this over on the Is the Republican Party Dead? thread.  Evan McMullin is polling almost even with Trump and Hillary in a true 3-way race in Utah.  There is speculation that he could take Utah.  He announced his candidacy in August 8, 2016, just a bit over 2 months ago.    

The Brits are always are on top of things: Evan McMullin: the 'unknown Mormon' who could take Utah from Trump and Clinton 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/22/evan-mcmullin-the-unknown-mormon-who-could-take-utah-from-trump/

Never heard of him prior to I watching him being interviewed by George Stephanopoulos today. Clearly called out Trump as a  misogynist and bigot and talked about parity for everyone.  He's drawing on populist rhetoric but I'd be very curious to know his positions and proposed solutions on major issues to see what he's hiding, if anything.  Anyway, Utahns are sucking it up, or at least approaching 30% of them.  The people who have worked hard to establish a base for Clinton are none too happy. 

Here's his bio from evanmcmullin.com: 

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Evan served as a Mormon missionary in Brazil and Volunteer Refugee Resettlement Officer in Amman, Jordan on behalf of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

On September 11th, 2001 Evan was in training at CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia. He completed his training and repeatedly volunteered for overseas service in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, spearheading counterterrorism and intelligence operations in some of the most dangerous places on earth.

Having completed his CIA service, in 2011, McMullin transitioned to the Investment Banking Division at Goldman Sachs in the San Francisco Bay Area, where he worked with companies in several industries, including technology, energy, consumer goods, biotech, industrials and real estate on capital raising projects and mergers and acquisitions.

In 2013, McMullin joined the House Committee on Foreign Affairs as a senior advisor and later became the chief policy director of the House Republican Conference.

He declared his candidacy for President of the United States on August 8, 2016, saying “In a year where Americans have lost faith in the candidates of both major parties, it’s time for a generation of new leadership to step up. It’s never too late to do the right thing, and America deserves much better than either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can offer us. I humbly offer myself as a leader who can give millions of disaffected Americans a better choice for President.”

 

[AmazonGrace]

Analysis

Polls favourable to Donald Trump may be overestimating his support, state polls suggest

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The polling consensus is a lead for Hillary Clinton, but a few surveys are seeing a very different race

Depending on which presidential candidate you favour, American polls have something to appeal to all tastes. A competitive race? A narrow lead for Donald Trump? A landslide for Hillary Clinton? The polls have you covered.

But that doesn't mean that we have no idea where things really stand in the U.S. election. The consensus of national polling still points to a comfortable Clinton lead — and that lead is corroborated by state-level polling that also heavily favours her.

 

A number of daily tracking polls have emerged in recent days showing much more positive numbers for Trump than other surveys. On Monday, the USC/Los Angeles Times poll put Clinton up by a single point. The much-vaunted IBD/TIPP poll had the two candidates in a tie. Rasmussen Reports, meanwhile, had Trump ahead by two.

These tracking polls, however, will now vie with one from ABC News. On the weekend, this tracking poll put Clinton up by 12. 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-uselection-tracking-polls-1.3818965

[Howl]

I voted early yesterday morning, on the first day of early voting in Texas.  There was a steady stream of voters coming in.  Can't remember how the results of early voting are reported, if at all.  Or is this a state-by-state deal?  

In north Texas, over 100,000 people in three counties voted early yesterday on the first day of early voting.  Keep in mind also that at least some voting stations didn't open until 10 am.  Here are some numbers -- they are pretty mind blowing and have broken all previous early voting records:  

58,322 (Dallas County) 

30,288 (Collin County)

43,149 (Tarrant County)

These three counties are part of the densely populated Dallas/Ft Worth/Arlington metropolitan area, but it's still a LOT of motivated voters.

Over 67,000 people voted in Harris County (Houston area).  

These numbers will surely have an effect on polling.

[AmazonGrace]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

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So let me explain why our forecast is a bit more conservative than some of the others you might be seeing — and why you shouldn’t give up if you’re a Trump supporter, or assume you have it in the bag if you’re voting for Clinton. We’ve touched on each of these points before, but it’s nice to have them in one place. I’ll also show you what probability our model would give to Trump and Clinton if we changed some of these assumptions.

I worry that some Clinton supporters might stay at home if they see a democratic victory as a sure thing. (Although some Trump supporters might stay at home if they think the election is rigged against them and Clinton will steal it anyway because what's the point.)

[AmazonGrace]

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 In addition to trailing Clinton by double digits or close to it in the national NBC/WSJ poll since Sept. 2015 (with the exceptions of May, June, and July of this year), Trump's unfavorable numbers among key demographic groups have barely moved since Jan. 2016 in the NBC/WSJ poll:

Women: THEN: 68%, NOW: 62%

Latinos: THEN: 69%, NOW: 80%

African Americans: THEN: 81%, NOW: 87%

Those ages 18-34: THEN: 72%, NOW: 70%

Independents: THEN: 52%, NOW: 61%

Suburban voters: THEN: 55%, NOW: 59%

Folks, it is hard to win a presidential race -- let alone lead in national polls -- when six in 10 women, seven in 10 young voters, eight in 10 Latinos, and nearly nine in 10 African Americans have an unfavorable view of you, even against another unpopular opponent. 

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/reality-check-trump-s-poll-numbers-n672401

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/there-is-no-possible-way-donald-trumps-team-actually-believes-this-is-their-path-to-270/#comments

There is no possible way Donald Trump’s team actually believes this is their path to 270

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Conway says that over the past month, polls have shown Trump winning Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. That’s true except for Maine, where there are far fewer polls and Clinton has lead in eight of eight. In Florida, Clinton has led in 19 polls in the past month; Trump has led in two. In Ohio, Clinton has led in 11, Trump five. In Nevada, Clinton’s led in 14; they’ve been tied in two. In North Carolina, Clinton’s led in 19 and Trump two. In averages of recent polling, Clinton leads in Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Maine. Leading in a poll over a month doesn’t mean you’re going to win on Election Day.

Trump TV starts off with a bang. 

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The map Conway sent in the email was the best semi-believable map they could think of, and even then, Trump struggled to reach a tie.

But on Trump TV, viewers didn't get any of this “spin.” They just got the unvarnished truth, straight from the people responsible for getting Trump into striking distance: Trump’s in striking distance. On Nov. 8, I fully expect Trump TV to say that Trump actually won.

After all, Conway said they would. Unequivocally.

 

Someone comments that she's read too many inspirational office posters which say you will get it if you can visualize it. 

[RoseWilder]

2 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

I worry that some Clinton supporters might stay at home if they see a democratic victory as a sure thing. (Although some Trump supporters might stay at home if they think the election is rigged against them and Clinton will steal it anyway because what's the point.)

I'm going to go try and find some links for you, but all the information I've read on early voting has shown that woman, African Americans and Latinos are showing up in huge numbers. Also, the poll from the other day that showed Clinton ahead by 12 points nationally also polled people on their enthusiasm for voting and Democrats were very enthusiastic about voting but voting enthusisam as well as likelihood of voting had dropped with Republicans. 

[RoseWilder]

I can't seem to find that article. I love Daily Kos, but I hate their search engine. But I'll keep looking. 

In the meantime: 

Two new polls were released and both show Clinton with a 12 point lead nationally. 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/25/1586822/-Two-national-polls-have-Clinton-12

[RoseWilder]

I finally found the article!!!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/25/1586513/-Josh-Marshall-Sees-Hints-of-A-Coming-Deluge

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The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

And here's an article about Democrats and early voting in Florida: 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/25/1586571/-Daily-Kos-Elections-early-voting-roundup-Democrats-erase-GOP-advantage-in-Florida

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Miami-Dade County (which voted 62-38 for Obama overall in 2012) had 10,000 more early voters today than on day one in 2012. Given that this is a key county for Clinton’s hopes, this is enormous.

Orange County (home of Orlando, 59-40 Obama in 2012) saw a yawning gap (53-27) between Democratic early voters and Republican early voters.

Hillsborough County (Tampa, 53-46 Obama in 2012) had a 49-34 Democratic edge among day one early voters, well ahead of the eight-point Democratic edge in registration.

Duval County (Jacksonville, 51-47 Romney in 2012) saw a 49-38 Democratic edge on day one. Despite being an urban county, Dems only have a 41-38 registration edge. 

I've read several other articles about early voting that were all saying that the numbers look good for Democrats. I don't think we have to worry about Democratic complacency. 

[RoseWilder]

More early voting good news for the Democrats!

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-early-voting-230315

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In Nevada, where early in-person voting began on Saturday, Democratic voters cast 23,000 more ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday afternoon, good for a 15-percentage-point edge in the nearly 150,000 ballots cast. (Mail in and absentee ballots narrow the gap slightly).

Polling and early voting returns suggest Democrats are maintaining an edge in North Carolina, and they are also slicing into a thinner-than-expected early vote lead for Republicans in Florida, who now lead by about half a percentage point; in 2012, the GOP held a much more significant edge two weeks from Election Day. Women in Florida are casting early ballots in far greater numbers than four years ago, and Hispanic turnout is surging as well, according to data released by the Clinton campaign. Polls suggest that both constituencies are strongly Democratic this year.

In Colorado — where Democrats hold a voter registration edge for the first time — early returns give the party a 23,000-vote lead in returned and in-person ballots. In Arizona, which last went Democratic in 1996, Democrats held a thin early-vote lead on Monday.

 

[Bethella]

14 hours ago, Howl said:

Can't remember how the results of early voting are reported, if at all.  Or is this a state-by-state deal?  

IIRC they can't actually count the votes until after the polls close on election day. I know that here in Michigan we can't run our absentee ballots through until after the polls open on election day. I think the numbers we're hearing now are exit polls (where they ask people who they voted for as they leave) and demographics where they look at the party registration of people who have already voted (in the states where they list the party as part of the voter registration process).

[AuntK]

I'm getting nervous. CNN says Trump's numbers are improving.  My state, Florida, is now a battleground, whereas, before, it looked like it was going DEM.  I would like to just go into hibernation for the next week and a half and just wake up on Nov. 9. 

[RoseWilder]

The early voting stats are all looking great for Hillary Clinton: 

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/10/27/democrats-dominating-iowa-early-vote-margin-poll-finds/

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However, the most interesting numbers in the Quinnipiac Poll is the early vote. Clinton leads Trump by a substantial 61% to 27% among those who have already voted. That’s a significant improvement in the early votemargin of 2012. That election ended with Barack Obama taking 59% of Iowa’s early vote, while Mitt Romney claimed 39%, a 20-point spread. Clinton is ahead right now by 34 points, if this poll of the early vote is correct.

Republicans may yet turn out more early voters in the final stretch than Democrats do, though Democrats have a few thousand more outstanding ballots than Republicans. 62,749 Democratic ballots remain in the field, while 59,292 Republican ones have yet to return.

What’s most noteworthy is how that 34-point advantage for Clinton compares to the current returns by party registration. Registered Democrats have accounted for 46% of the current Iowa vote, with registered Republicans at 34% and registered No Party voters at 20%. If Trump is really only winning 27% of the early vote, that would mean that not only did the vast majority of No Party voters go with Clinton, it would mean that a decent amount of the Republicans didn’t even voted for Trump.

http://fortune.com/2016/10/27/hillary-clinton-early-voting/

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The millions of votes that have been cast already in the U.S. presidential election point to an advantage for Hillary Clinton in critical battleground states, as well as signs of strength in traditionally Republican territory.

The strong early-voting turnout by those likely to support Clinton—registered Democrats, minorities, and young people among others—could leave Donald Trump with virtually no path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Clinton is showing strength in Florida and North Carolina, both must-win states for Trump, as well as the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. There are even favorable signs for Clinton in Republican-leaning Utah and Texas.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/28/1587774/-One-more-state-where-Democratic-turnout-is-looking-good

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So far 49.7% of voters are Democrats to 29.7% Republicans. In registered voters, Democrats lead 38.9% to 28.2%, so that 2.6% edge in turnout so far leads to us significantly outperforming registration.

But how does this compare to previous elections? 2008 was a great year for Democrats, so let’s compare to 2008.

Final ballot returns in 2008 in the Portland metro area counties of Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington were 50% Democratic to 27% Republican. Right now they are 60% Democratic to 20% Republican.

 

[AmazonGrace]

Yikes

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639

 

Help!