Presidential Polling Updates

[RoseWilder]

Huffington Post currently has Clinton's chances of winning at 85.2%

FiveThirtyEight has her chances at 81.4%

I believe that's the highest they've ever been. And I don't even think we have any post-scandal polls in yet. 

[AmazonGrace]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[RoseWilder]

The first post-scandal poll was released today and Clinton has an 11 point lead. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-poll-gives-hillary-clinton-a-double-digit-national-lead_us_57fbb90fe4b068ecb5e0698d?section=&

Clinton's lead prior to the scandal was 5-6 points in most polls. An 11 point lead would most likely result in a landslide! 

This is only one poll so it's still too early to tell if this is an outlier or if the other polls will be similar, but it's still pretty exciting. 

Election Forecast: 

Huffington Post gives Clinton a 88% chance of winning. 

Fivethirtyeight's NowCast gives Clinton a 87.8% chance of winning. 

 

[Cartmann99]

Thank you for that happy news, @RoseWilder!  

[RoseWilder]

1 minute ago, Cartmann99 said:

Thank you for that happy news, @RoseWilder!  

You're welcome. I can't tell you how happy I was to share it!

[RoseWilder]

The now-cast on Fivethirtyeight currently has Hillary Clinton's chances of winning at 90.8% (the polls plus has her chances at 86.2%) 

Both of those numbers are the highest I've ever seen them!

 

 

 

[RoseWilder]

A new batch of polls has been released. 

Trump and Clinton are tied in Utah (the last time Utah voted for a Democrat was in 1964): 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/doanld-trump-utah-poll_us_57fe4bb3e4b05eff55809d3c

Quote

The HuffPost Pollster election forecast model predicts a 9 percent chance that Trump will win the presidential race and a 90.8 chance Clinton will.   

One of the headlines on Huffington post is that Clinton is so far ahead in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin and Michigan that they're likely off the table for Trump, but when I click on the link, it doesn't show the new polling. 

 

Also, according to fivethirtyeight, the Democrats now have a 57.7% chance of taking back the Senate. Their chances as of this morning were 50.4%

YES. I've been concerned because Trump's falling polling numbers don't seem to have affected the Senate that much. But the senate polls are finally moving in the right direction!

[AmazonGrace]

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/4455498-155/editorial-in-the-end-hillary-clinton

The Salt Lake Tribune endorses Clinton: 

Quote

 

This election presents the two most unpopular candidates in recent history. One has developed a reputation for secrecy and dishonesty. The other built a campaign on insults and bigoted statements, finally losing any right to be taken seriously with the recent release of a video in which he was heard to brag about his ability to get away with sexually assaulting women.

There is certainly not a perfect choice but, at this point, the only candidate who comes close to being qualified and fit for the post is Hillary Clinton

 

 

[AmazonGrace]

Tom Hanks: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-hanks-explains-why-donald-trump-shouldnt-be-president-with-one-simple-analogy_us_57fe668ee4b0162c04393b17?section=&

Quote

 

“He was at work, man. He wasn’t in a locker room. He was at work. He was showing up to do a thing on camera,” Hanks told the Press Association during an interview for his new movie. “Look... I’m offended as a man. I’m not offended as a husband or a father. I’m offended as a guy.” 

The actor, clearly growing more and more agitated, added, “That’s just not right, I’m sorry. It’s not right at work, it’s not right in the locker room. It’s wrong, period. The end. That’s all.” 

 

Quote

“It’s kind of like if you have a horrible, painful tooth, and you need a root canal. Who are you going to see? A guy who says, ‘Oh, I think I can figure that out, how to do a root canal for you. Lay down,’” Hanks said. “Or are you going to see somebody who’s done 6,000 of them. Has a degree on the wall and has a great history and expertise when it comes down to it.”

And then a couple of idiots: 

Eric Trump: 

Eric Trump: Bragging About Sexual Assault Is ‘What Happens’ When Alpha Males Are Together

Welp.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/eric-trump-donald-trump-alpha-males_us_57fd4aede4b044be3015c5f8?

Scott Baio: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-baio-trump-sexism_us_57fbda44e4b0b6a430348dbd

Quote

 

“First of all, I think 11 years ago Trump was a Democrat, so doesn’t he deserve a pass?” he asked Fox News’ Jeanine Pirro. “I like Trump because Trump is not a politician; he talks like a guy. And, ladies out there, this is what guys talk about when you’re not around. So if you’re offended by it, grow up. And by the way, this is what you guys talk about over white wine when you have your brunches, so take it easy with your phony outrage. This is the way the world works. It’s not a big thing.”

Lovely. 

 

 

[AmazonGrace]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/donald-trump-polls/index.html

Donald Trump has a new target: "Crooked polls."

With Hillary Clinton extending her lead nationwide and in key battleground states, Trump is toying with what might be called "poll denialism," giving his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data.

"Even the polls are crooked," he said at a Monday night rally, expressing disbelief that he is losing to Clinton in Pennsylvania. "Look, we're in a rigged system."

Trump has only topped Clinton in one scientifically conducted poll in Pennsylvania since it became clear he would be the GOP's nominee back in April, while Clinton has been in the lead in 18 of them. In the most recent polls, Clinton holds a double-digit lead there.

[Mercer]

While I am certainly well aware that pollsters can twist, skew, or even outright invent data, when essentially all the polls are against you... it's you, not the polls. When the options are that everything is a big conspiracy against you or that you are the problem - the rational explanation is that it's you. But of course, Trump is far from rational.

[kpmom]

 

3 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Scott Baio:

“First of all, I think 11 years ago Trump was a Democrat, so doesn’t he deserve a pass?” he asked Fox News’ Jeanine Pirro. “I like Trump because Trump is not a politician; he talks like a guy. And, ladies out there, this is what guys talk about when you’re not around. So if you’re offended by it, grow up. And by the way, this is what you guys talk about over white wine when you have your brunches, so take it easy with your phony outrage. This is the way the world works. It’s not a big thing.”

Ugh!

I'm thinking Joanie wouldn't love Chachi so much anymore after reading that horrible quote

[GreyhoundFan]

1 hour ago, kpmom said:

 

Ugh!

I'm thinking Joanie wouldn't love Chachi so much anymore after reading that horrible quote

LOL If Joanie cared about anything at all, she would have kicked Chachi's keister to the curb when he played a "starring" role in the GOP convention. After hearing those words, I would hope she would run him over with Fonzie's motorcycle while swigging some white wine, shouting, "here's how the world REALLY works, d-bag."

[RoseWilder]

A few months ago, Scott Baio endorsed Donald Trump for president, and in the comments section on Huffington Post, someone left the best response, "Thank God he spoke up. I was just wondering how Chachi would vote. Now if only I knew who Balki was voting for I could sleep at night." 

Scott Baio has seriously overestimated his importance in the grand scheme of this election. Crawl back into your hole Scott. We'll call you if we need more offensive, nearly-incoherent rants from a washed-up has-been." 

[AmazonGrace]

Eric Trump is either stupid or a liar or both. Wise money is on stupid liar.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/13/eric-trump-emails-out-map-with-female-voters-removed-to-prove-do/

Eric Trump emails out map with female voters removed to prove Donald Trump has "momentum"

ric Trump has been ridiculed online after sending out an email with a map which had the intentions of female voters removed in order to prove his father has "momentum" against presidential rival Hillary Clinton.

In the email, sent out on Wednesday, he said: "As one of the most dedicated grassroots leaders in the country you know, momentum matters.

"And right now all the momentum is on our side."

He then used an image of a map which appears to show a Republican landslide, saying "We’re making huge gains against Crooked Hillary that you can see for yourself".

However, the image appears to be taken from FiveThirtyEight, which calculated who would win if only men could vote, and then did the same for women.

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/clinton-up-by-nine-points-in-pennsylvania-poll-784994883582

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by nine points in Pennsylvania, according to the latest BloombergPolitics poll.

[JMarie]

The country wouldn't be in this mess if women weren't allowed to vote.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/trump-supporters-repeal-19th-amendment-article-1.2828571

But why stop there?  Why not also repeal the 26th Amendment, the one that lowered the voting age from 21 to 18?  Or the 24th, the one about paying a poll tax?  It's about time we had a new amendment!

[RoseWilder]

According to fivethirtyeight, the chances of the Democrats taking back the Senate is steadily going up!

Wednesday the chances were 50%

Thursday the chances were 57%

As of this morning, the chances are 60%

I think a 10% increase in the span of 48 hours is a pretty big deal. Fingers crossed that the numbers keep rising!

[RoseWilder]

Trump is only ahead by 4 points in Indiana. He was ahead by 11 points in August. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-indiana-presidential-senate-races-229796

 

Trump is only 5 1/2 points ahead in Alaska, and only 4 points ahead in Texas. TEXAS, for heaven's sake. This is fantastic!

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/14/1582664/-You-ve-gotta-be-kidding-me-Clinton-really-has-a-shot-in-Alaska-Indiana-Texas-and-Utah

[RoseWilder]

The Democrats now has a 65.3% chances of taking back the senate (their chances were at just 50.3% on Wednesday): 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

There's a new poll out that shows Hillary Clinton with a 15 point lead in Virginia and an 11 point lead nationally: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/16/1583091/-New-Poll-Clinton-Expands-Virginia-Lead-Over-Trump-to-15-points-44-29

[Cartmann99]

On 10/14/2016 at 11:24 PM, RoseWilder said:

Trump is only ahead by 4 points in Indiana. He was ahead by 11 points in August. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-indiana-presidential-senate-races-229796

 

Trump is only 5 1/2 points ahead in Alaska, and only 4 points ahead in Texas. TEXAS, for heaven's sake. This is fantastic!

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/14/1582664/-You-ve-gotta-be-kidding-me-Clinton-really-has-a-shot-in-Alaska-Indiana-Texas-and-Utah

If Texas goes blue this year, we won't have early voting anymore. I'll really miss that, but it will be worth it! 

[AmazonGrace]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/17/its-getting-very-hard-to-see-how-donald-trump-wins/

 

[RoseWilder]

Fivethirtyeight's Senate forecast is showing that Democrats have a 72.3% chance of regaining control of the senate: 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

[kpmom]

I'm still worried about this election because some polls show Clinton ahead by only a narrow margin, while some show a larger margin.

Does anyone know which polls were shown to be most accurate in the last few presidential elections? 

[RoseWilder]

Hillary Clinton is leading in most of the swing states: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-battleground-state-polls_us_58053c1ce4b0dd54ce3498d6?section=&

 

50 minutes ago, kpmom said:

I'm still worried about this election because some polls show Clinton ahead by only a narrow margin, while some show a larger margin.

Does anyone know which polls were shown to be most accurate in the last few presidential elections? 

Fivethirtyeight has a section that grades polls based on how accurate they have been in the past: 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[GreyhoundFan]

2 hours ago, RoseWilder said:

Hillary Clinton is leading in most of the swing states: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-battleground-state-polls_us_58053c1ce4b0dd54ce3498d6?section=&

 

Fivethirtyeight has a section that grades polls based on how accurate they have been in the past: 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

That Fivethirtyeight ratings chart was interesting. I've often read that Quinnipiac polls were less accurate, but they were rated highly.

I hope that some of Hillary's lukewarm supporters don't stay home because she's ahead in the polls. We need every vote to prevent Agent Orange from taking over.