Presidential Polling Updates

[RoseWilder]

Mods: I hope this is okay, I decided to start a thread for polling updates because I never know which thread to put these in since they involve both Clinton and Trump

The latest polls: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/battleground-state-polls_us_57aded23e4b069e7e504dbad?nrabd8kqtp96yldi

Quote

Clinton leads Trump by 14 points in Colorado, 46 percent to 32 percent, and by 13 points in Virginia, 46 percent to 33 percent. She holds a 9-point lead in North Carolina, 48 percent to 39 percent, and a smaller 5-point edge in Florida, 44 percent to 39 percent.

Current chances of winning, according to fivethirtyeight: 

Clinton: 87.5%

Trump: 12.5%

Also, Republicans further down on the ticket are not doing well in those swing states: 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/poll-clinton-trump-colorado-north-carolina-virginia-226955

Quote

Not only does Clinton lead in each of these states, but the polls also show Trump is a drag on GOP candidates downballot. In Colorado, incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet has a 15-point lead over his Republican challenger, Darryl Glenn, 53 percent to 38 percent.

In North Carolina, the poll shows Democrats ahead in both key statewide races. Attorney General Roy Cooper has a 7-point lead in his campaign against GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, 51 percent to 44 percent. And GOP Sen. Richard Burr trails Democratic challenger Deborah Ross for the first time in a nonpartisan public poll — though Ross' lead is within the margin of error, 46 percent to 44 percent.

 

[RoseWilder]

Another poll has been released today for New Hampshire: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-hampshire-battleground-polls_us_57b08c50e4b007c36e4f1796?section=us_politics

Quote

Donald Trump is losing by 9 percentage points to rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire ― a state with a large percentage of white working-class voters who were expected to perhaps give the GOP presidential nominee a boost.

According to a new set of CBS News/YouGov battleground polls released Sunday, just 36 percent of New Hampshire’s likely general election voters support Trump, whoswept the state’s Republican primary, while 45 percent back Clinton, who lost the state to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by an astonishing 20 points in the Democratic primary.

New Hampshire only has 4 electoral votes, but I think what's so amazing about this poll is that it's showing that Donald Trump isn't doing very well with the white working class voters he's counting on to help him win the election. 

Current chances of winning according to fivethirtyeight: 

Clinton: 88.8%

Trump 11.1%

Has anyone else read any encouraging polls lately?

[Geechee Girl]

The poll numbers are looking good, but I'm still holding my breath with a small glimmer of hope.I want FL to go back to a solid blue. The Cubans in south FL vote in a block, and have been a strong red. I don't know if they'll turn this time around and add to the greater Hispanic community of Puerto Ricans & Dominicans. The I-4 corridor    Daytona to Tampa is blue. I'm worried about the panhandle & rural counties.

[RoseWilder]

Hillary Clinton is ahead by 30 points in a new poll released about New York State: 

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2016/08/clinton-trump-poll-augurs-poorly-for-nys-down-ballot-republicans-104715

Trump wasn't going to win this state anyway, so this doesn't change the electoral map at all. But what is significant about this poll is that is shows that Trump is even losing Republicans from his home state. 

Quote

What is surprising, however, is how poorly Trump is polling among members of his own party in his home state, according to the poll. He enjoys the support of barely half of New York’s Republicans, which has the potential to inflict serious damage on other Republicans running in New York in November.

 

[clueliss]

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article94713707.html

Hilary is up to 39% (within 5% of Trump) in Kansas.  Kansas hasn't gone blue in a Presidential race since 1964 (the year I was born).   So I'd color KS as a potential light pink with more than Douglas County going blue at this point. 

The article says that Libertarian Johnson is at 8% and 9% are undecided. 

[Geechee Girl]

That's good news about Kansas 

[AuntK]

4 hours ago, clueliss said:

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article94713707.html

Hilary is up to 39% (within 5% of Trump) in Kansas.  Kansas hasn't gone blue in a Presidential race since 1964 (the year I was born).   So I'd color KS as a potential light pink with more than Douglas County going blue at this point. 

The article says that Libertarian Johnson is at 8% and 9% are undecided. 

That's funny that Johnson is doing so well in Kansas! Do they know he's a stoner? (Although he told USA Today he was giving up the reefer for the duration of the campaign.) Didn't know folks in Kansas were so liberal!  

[clueliss]

There's a current anti-Brownbackistan thing going on.  The moderate republicans bounced several sitting state senators/reps from the far right and tea party.

And if we're talking stoners, wonder if Lawrence is playing an influence there.

[RoseWilder]

On 8/15/2016 at 1:22 AM, Geechee Girl said:

I want FL to go back to a solid blue. 

A new poll about Florida was released today. Hillary is ahead by 9 points: 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-9-in-florida-227057

[RoseWilder]

There's a new article out today that summarizes how badly Trump is doing in a lot of swing states (and in a few states that weren't even swing states but were supposed to be solid red states but are now leaning blue):

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-shrinking-election-map-227076

Quote

Taken together, the state polling paints a bleak picture for Trump: He currently trails in all 11 of the states identified by POLITICO as Electoral College battlegrounds. If all safely Democratic states are allocated to Clinton, plus the seven swing states where her lead is greater than 5 points in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average(Colorado, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), Clinton would reach 302 electoral votes, 31 more than necessary to win.

And that doesn’t even include North Carolina, where Clinton is up by an average of 4 points, despite the most-recent poll there giving her a lead of twice that margin. Or Nevada or Ohio, where Clinton leads by about 2 points. Adding those would give Clinton 341 electoral votes.

 

[AuntK]

I want Florida to go Blue too! We still have an idiot governor and Marco Rubio, with the WORST attendance record in Congress is supposedly leading in his Senate race. Florida voters are hopeless!

[RoseWilder]

@AuntK: The last poll I saw showed that Rubio is slipping in the polls: 

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/florida-poll-hurt-by-trump-rubio-in-too-close-to-call-us-senate-race-with-murphy-104657

Quote

Rubio has a marginal 3-point lead over Murphy, 48 percent to 45 percent, in the latest poll of likely voters. However, last month’s Quinnipiac poll showed Rubio ahead by 13 points, 50 percent to 37 percent. Factoring in the new poll's 3-point error-margin, the Senate race is now "too close to call," Quinnipiac said in a news release.

 

[RoseWilder]

A new poll was released. This poll was a national poll and Clinton is ahead by 12 points: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-trump-poll_us_57bd92d9e4b0b51733a6b1d5?section=&

[clueliss]

KC Star is reporting that Trump only leads Clinton by 1% in Missouri.  Margin of error in the poll is 4.9% (and I appreciate them actually saying the margin of error).  Apparently this does not mean that either campaign will actually pay attention to Missouri.  

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article97347927.html#storylink=fb_staff

[Howl]

Yeah, Trumps flash dash to Texas yesterday had more to do with hitting up people for money and not much to do with campaigning.   Oh, and The Wall, gotta build The Wall.   This is in a state with 1.65 million undocumented immigrants, with a lot of relatives who are American citizen.   

Re: Trumps appeal to African American voters: "What have you got to lose?" African American commentators were saying, African Americans need to ask themselves, "What have you got to gain (from Trump)."  Obviously not a whole lot. 

 

[RoseWilder]

A new poll has been released: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/clinton-leads-trump-by-10-in-national-poll-227406

Quote

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 10-point national lead over Donald Trump in the Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters out Thursday, the latest sign of the Democratic nominee's sturdy momentum as Trump wades through self-inflicted controversies.

 

[RoseWilder]

I've found the polls too depressing lately to post about. I just don't understand how people could be swinging back to supporting Trump just because he's acted slightly less insane lately. It's insanity.

I'm starting to have election anxiety. I just can't even let myself imagine a world in which Trump could be president. 

Someone please say something positive to make me feel better . . . 

[FakePigtails]

3 hours ago, RoseWilder said:

I've found the polls too depressing lately to post about. I just don't understand how people could be swinging back to supporting Trump just because he's acted slightly less insane lately. It's insanity.

I'm starting to have election anxiety. I just can't even let myself imagine a world in which Trump could be president. 

Someone please say something positive to make me feel better . . . 

Shitshow debates start in just over a week. I'm trying not to worry about the polls until then.

[RoseWilder]

2 hours ago, FakePigtails said:

Shitshow debates start in just over a week. I'm trying not to worry about the polls until then.

Thanks! That makes me feel better. I had forgotten about how McCain was doing fairly well and then the debates happened and he wandered incoherently all over the stage. I think the debate was a turning point for him. Fingers crossed it'll happen again!

[MarblesMom]

13 hours ago, RoseWilder said:

Someone please say something positive to make me feel better . . . 

I have nothing to say, but I do add this pic: 

Spoiler

 

[JMarie]

I'm not putting much faith into surveys.  They're based on answers given by people who have actually answered the phone and completed the survey.  Lots of people (me included) are deeply annoyed by these phone calls, and don't answer.  It doesn't bother me that I'm not included in the results. I already know who I'm voting for, and am soooo excited to hear her acceptance speech.

[RoseWilder]

Great news with the polls!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-debate-performance-is-helping-her-in-swing-states/

 

Quote

Among the 11 swing state polls conducted since the debate, Clinton has led in all 11.

 

[RoseWilder]

Time for another presidential polling roundup: 

A new poll was released that has Clinton ahead by 10 points in Pennsylvania: 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-clinton-up-10-points-in-pennsylvania-229095

She's ahead by 11 points in Colorado: 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/who-is-winning-colorado-clinton-trump-229049

And she's ahead by 7 points in Virginia: 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-clinton-trump-virginia-229040

Huffington Post has made their presidential prediction based on recent polls: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-post-debate-polls-forecast_us_57f39dbde4b0d0e1a9a98198?

Quote

HUFFPOST FORECAST GIVES CLINTON STRONG CHANCE OF WINNING IN NOVEMBER - HuffPollster: “We’re likely to see the first woman elected as president of the United States on Nov. 8, based on the HuffPost forecast model, which puts Hillary Clinton at an [82] percent chance of winning against Donald Trump. The poll-based model indicates that Clinton is likely to get over 300 electoral votes. The model currently shows her with 323, which includes all of the typically Democratic states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. She can safely lose Florida, North Carolina and Nevada ― the states she’s winning with the narrowest margin of victory in the model ― and still win 273 electoral votes and the presidency. Trump has a much more difficult path to 270. The model gives him only 215 electoral votes, and that includes close races in Nevada and Ohio. Trump would need to hold all of those states plus overtake Clinton in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and one more state to win…. The model utilizes polls in the HuffPost Pollster database to calculate the likelihood of each candidate winning the election. Unlike other forecast models, it doesn’t include historical or economic data, nor does it adjust the polls in any way. Because of this, it’s a bit more certain of Clinton’s win in some of the states and overall than other forecast models.”

Fivethirtyeight has has Clinton's chances of winning at 73.6% (her chances of winning were a depressing low 55% prior to the debates): 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Geechee Girl]

Since tonight, I'm anxiously awaiting the newest numbers! 

[RoseWilder]

58 minutes ago, Geechee Girl said:

Since tonight, I'm anxiously awaiting the newest numbers! 

Me too! 

Clinton's chances of winning had already been going up all week before this latest scandal. When I posted on Tuesday, her chances of winning were 73.6%. And now they're at 81.8%. 

Between this latest scandal and the debate on Sunday, next's weeks polling information should be exciting!