Presidential Polling Updates

[Childless]

I read a good article (I can't remember were I saw it though).  Basically it said if you took all of the solidly Republican states and the states that lean Republican, you'd have 179 electoral votes.  If you add in the swing States (87 total), you'd have 266.  Still not the 270 he needs.  If you took all of the solidly Democratic States and the states that lean Democratic, you'd have 272 electoral votes.  Enough to win without having to get any swing states.  In order for Trump to win, he's going to have to not only get all the swing states, but he's also going to have to turn at least one traditional blue state red.  That's a tall order.  Not entirely impossible, but very unlikely.  Everyone still needs to get out there and vote, but it's going to be difficult for Trump to win.  Polls of the popular vote don't really show an accurate reflection of which way the electoral college will fall.

[RoseWilder]

2 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Yikes

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639

 

Help!

I was reading an article this morning that said that polling has now switched from taking 3 days to complete a poll to taking 1 day and that they're not including people who have already voted in the "who are you going to vote for" polls, so it's making the results look very different from before. 

Nothing to worry about. She's going to win this thing!

[RoseWilder]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-gains-polls_us_581605d1e4b064e1b4b30640

Quote

The ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll shows Trump within 1 point of Hillary Clinton in a four-way race that includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein ― a drastic cut in her lead since the tracker debuted last week with Clinton up by 12 points. A new Florida poll from The Upshot/Siena College shows Trump leading by 4 points, a significant increase for Trump since their September poll that showed the race tied. 

But the news isn’t all good for the GOP nominee. New CBS battleground polls show Clinton leading by 8 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Colorado and Trump only leading by 2 points in Arizona ― a typically strong Republican state. CBS also has Clinton up by 3 points in North Carolina, while a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows Clinton up by 6 in the Tar Heel State. Another NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll has Clinton leading by 1 point in Florida.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

9 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Yikes

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639

 

Help!

 

The only thing that makes me hopeful is that, possibly, with Hillary losing so much of her lead, that folks who are lukewarm for her will get out just to avoid Agent Orange winning.

 

[RoseWilder]

Nevada early voting stats are looking good for the Democrats: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-early-vote_us_581652efe4b0990edc31d16b

Quote

As of Sunday morning, registered Democrats had established a 7-point lead over registered Republicans in the state’s early vote totals. That margin is just slightly below the lead Democrats held at the same point in 2012, when President Barack Obama ended up winning the state by 6.6 percent.

Democrats actually increased their turnout lead by roughly 3,000 votes on Saturday, one day after FBI Director James Comey made headlines by releasing a controversial letter indicating his agency was again looking into Clinton’s email practices while she was secretary of state. 

Nevada is one of a small handful of swing states where polling aggregates show Clinton and GOP nominee Donald Trump currently within five points of one another, according to HuffPost Pollster.

To understand the state’s importance, consider this: If Clinton wins Nevada, she could lose all of the other swing states ― Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia ― and still win the presidency, assuming the non-battleground states do not shift.

Democrats hold a 90,000-voter registration edge over Republicans in Nevada, and if current turnout trends continue, the state will be “almost impossible for Trump to win,” wrote Jon Ralston, an influential Nevada political reporter, on Sunday. 

 

[RoseWilder]

David Plouffe has a message for worried Democrats: 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/30/1588734/-David-Plouffe-has-a-message-for-Democrats-Clinton-path-to-300-rock-solid-Structure-Unchanged

Quote

 

 Follow

David Plouffe ✔@davidplouffe

Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet

2:05 PM - 30 Oct 2016

 

 5,5235,523 Retweets

 

 10,05310,053 likes

ETA: If you look at the comments on that article, one of the comments said that Plouffe was on a TV show and explained the election like this: 

Quote

There, he explained quite directly that Hillary leads by YUGE margins in enough states to give her 272 votes as is.

He then showed that even if Trump won FL, GA, AZ, NC, and OH, it still wouldn’t matter — Hillary would still win with the states that are strongly blue. 

The last point was that Trump would have to win all of the above states, plus a state like MI, WI, CO, or PA.  The problem with that is the polling:  he’s behind by >7% on average in all of those states.

 

[AmazonGrace]

http://abc7.com/news/trump-leads-clinton-among-likely-voters-in-latest-tracking-poll/1583356/

Depressing. 

[Childless]

2 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

http://abc7.com/news/trump-leads-clinton-among-likely-voters-in-latest-tracking-poll/1583356/

Depressing. 

Again, it doesn't matter how much of the total vote each is polling.  What matters is how many electoral votes each can say they safely have.  Trump has an up hill battle to 270.  Clinton can get there on blue states alone.  She may not win as brilliantly as Obama did, but she will likely win.

[QuiverDance]

If ABC is not polling people who already voted, and Clinton's early voting turnout has been better than Trump's, assuming early voting numbers could significantly affect polling (and I think it's safe to say they can), then I imagine that would skew the post-early voting polls to Trump.  

[RoseWilder]

4 hours ago, QuiverDance said:

If ABC is not polling people who already voted, and Clinton's early voting turnout has been better than Trump's, assuming early voting numbers could significantly affect polling (and I think it's safe to say they can), then I imagine that would skew the post-early voting polls to Trump.  

Good point!

I don't remember where I read this, but I read something the other day that said that some of the places conducting polls have shortened their polling from 3 day to 1 day, and that they're sampling a smaller amount of people, which changes the results. 

[QuiverDance]

Still... I'm scared

[karen77]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/poll-florida-republicans-vote-for-hillary-clinton

 

this at least made me feel better last night

 

and this too:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/

 

apparently Moody has called all the past presidential elections correctly ( maybe not by state, but overall at least)

[Howl]

I KNEW that had to be one of these, and sure enough

 

[AmazonGrace]

Maybe some Gary Johnson votes for Trumpster ?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/gary-johnson-polls-november_us_581c9da5e4b0d9ce6fbb412d?section=politics

[RoseWilder]

Huffington Post called out Nate Silver for bad polling: 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

And, Nate Silver is losing his shit all over twitter in response:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538

Is it wrong that I'm finding this entertaining? 

[AmazonGrace]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/

Tl;dr beware of phantom po!! swings that are the result of supporters not wanting to respond to polls when the press for their candidate is bad.

 

Although I'm not sure when the press for Trump was ever good.

[AmazonGrace]

http://www.mediaite.com/online/nate-silver-goes-to-war-with-huffpost-writer-after-highly-critical-column/

About Nate Silver 

[RoseWilder]

8 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/nate-silver-goes-to-war-with-huffpost-writer-after-highly-critical-column/

About Nate Silver 

The election stress has gotten to Nate Silver. He's lost his mind. And his manners. What an ass. If you choose to do something in a public forum, then you're opening yourself up to the possibility that people will disagree with you. If Nate can't handle that, then he needs to lead a private life. 

And if Nate was so confident in his numbers, he could calmly disagree. I think he's reacting this way because he's not confident in his polling. 

[RoseWilder]

Daily Kos has weighed in on the disagreement between Huffington Post and Nate Silver: 

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/6/1592120/-Five-Reasons-Nate-Silver-is-Wrong-Sam-Wang-is-Right-Hillary-Is-99-Likely-to-Win

[karen77]

That tiny place in NH voted, went to Hilary!

[AmazonGrace]

Mitt Romney tied for third place

[AmazonGrace]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/795851069217800192

[AmazonGrace]

Chinese psychic monkey predicts Trump victory

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/05/this-mystical-chinese-monkey-has-figured-out-who-will-win-the-u-s-election/?tid=sm_tw

[CoveredInBees]

55 minutes ago, AmazonGrace said:

Chinese psychic monkey predicts Trump victory

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/05/this-mystical-chinese-monkey-has-figured-out-who-will-win-the-u-s-election/?tid=sm_tw

The last leg (UK show) pig race showed Clinton victory though  and they were right over Brexit so it must be true........
 

[FakePigtails]

@Destiny, I understand if you want to base the thread for tonight's results on actual results but with exit poll data being released at 5, is there any chance it could be opened earlier for that?