2024: Possible Presidential Election Candidates

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[Xan]

Anybody got any idea what's going on here?  Is Trump trying to encourage a bunch of impossibles to run to muddy things up for DeSantis?  Is Donald sure he'd beat Scott so he's letting Scott beat up on Santis?  The whole thing makes what passes for the current Republican Party look even crazier.

[fraurosena]

6 hours ago, Xan said:

Anybody got any idea what's going on here?  Is Trump trying to encourage a bunch of impossibles to run to muddy things up for DeSantis?  Is Donald sure he'd beat Scott so he's letting Scott beat up on Santis?  The whole thing makes what passes for the current Republican Party look even crazier.

Yes. The more potentials there are, the more Trump is assured of the candidacy. His base is approximately a third of Republican primary voters. They will vote for him no matter what. The bigger the playing field, the less chance the others have of attaining more than a third of the votes, ensuring Trump of a primary win. It’s 2016 all over again.

[GreyhoundFan]

"The quiet race to be the GOP’s biggest loser in 2024 begins"

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I understand why Ron DeSantis thinks Republican primary voters might want an alternative to Donald Trump. I get why conservative stalwarts such as Nikki Haley and Chris Christie think the voters might welcome an alternative to DeSantis.

What’s less clear is why Chris Sununu and Asa Hutchinson would think there’s any market in today’s Republican Party for a kinder, gentler voice. Do they really think a pro-governing pragmatist can win the nomination?

The answer is probably not. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other things — celebrity, adoration, even financial opportunity — to be won by trying.

I’m not suggesting that Sununu and Hutchinson, the governor of New Hampshire and a former governor of Arkansas, respectively, don’t tell themselves they’ve got a legitimate shot at becoming the next president. (Hutchinson has already announced his candidacy, and Sununu has said he’s thinking about it.) I’m suggesting there’s a reasonable Plan B.

In 2016, a lot of people wondered why John Kasich, then the governor of Ohio, got into the race late and then slogged through months of primaries, long after it was clear that Donald Trump was cruising to the nomination. Kasich won exactly one state — his own. I talked to Kasich a lot back then, and I can tell you: He wanted very much to be president and believed he could win, right up until the moment he knew he couldn’t.

But Kasich came away from that campaign with something that would have seemed unthinkable for most of his career, when he was largely reviled on the left as a blustery, union-busting religious zealot. By standing up to Trump and making the case for civility in public life, he became — at least in the eyes of a lot of Democrats, independents and the news media — the fatherly conscience of the Republican Party.

There’s an established template for this kind of campaign, and it goes back to 2000, when John McCain defied his party and tried to derail George W. Bush’s highly choreographed march to the nomination. For most of his long career in Congress and the Senate, McCain, like Kasich, had been a reliable conservative vote on most everything, and his organization had exerted a distinctly undemocratic control over politics in Arizona.

But in 2000, McCain ran expertly as a bombastic reformer in the tradition of Theodore Roosevelt, recasting himself as a truth-telling antidote to partisan extremism. In narrowly losing and incurring the contempt of his own party’s leaders, he transformed himself, for a long moment, into the most popular and marketable politician in America.

When McCain (who was nothing if not persistent) finally managed to wrest the nomination in 2008, largely by sucking up to Bush, he found, to his enduring frustration, that he had sacrificed his most powerful asset along the way. By trading in his “maverick” image for the role of Republican elder, he betrayed his most avid constituency.

Four years later, an obscure former governor named Jon Huntsman Jr. returned triumphantly from his post as ambassador to China to run on a similar platform of moderation and civility. He failed spectacularly (accompanying him on his first trip to New Hampshire, I compared him, not unfairly, to the “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer” from “Saturday Night Live”), but even that debacle of a campaign was enough to elevate Huntsman to the roles of minor statesman and frequent media guest.

Incidentally, all three candidates — McCain, Huntsman and Kasich — relied on a renegade image-maker named John Weaver, who can fairly be credited with pioneering this Republican strategy of winning over just about everybody but Republican voters.

If this is the kind of campaign Sununu and Hutchinson have in mind, then ideology has little to do with it. Hutchinson, in fact, is about as socially conservative as you can get. What “moderate” means now, at least to the media and the left, is a refusal to demonize Democrats or cave to conspiracy theories. Most of all, it means clearly condemning Trump and his insurrectionist movement. (I suppose this would make Christie as moderate as anyone, but his previous ties to Trump make him a hard sell as a national healer.)

The odds of winning the nomination with this kind of strategy are probably close to nonexistent. But the odds of emerging with a serious public platform, if you do it well? Maybe a book deal or even a cable show? Those are odds I would take.

It’s worth noting, though, that if Sununu or Hutchinson plan to audition for the role of lonely Republican statesman, they might have to reckon with some competition. Liz Cheney, a former congresswoman who was banished by her party after voting for Trump’s impeachment, hasn’t ruled out an independent bid herself, and I wouldn’t dismiss her chances.

In the perennial primary to become the conservative icon of NPR listeners and humanities professors everywhere, she’s off to a commanding lead.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

[fraurosena]

16 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

And the last part is exactly why DeSantis is already dangling that pardon. 

[47of74]

I just got a spam email from some supposedly democratic group asking me if I wanted a woman to be elected President.  A multiple choice question it said yes, no, unsure.  I'd probably lean towards unsure.  Most of the woman on the D side of the equation would make awesome Presidents.  But the spam email didn't specify that and implied that those who would answer no or unsure were opposing women.

I wonder sometimes if some of these people flooding our inboxes understand that it's not just any woman (or man for that matter).  That's how we get people like fuck face in the White House, and the likes of Boebert and MTG in Congress.  I 100% support a woman sitting in the Oval Office, but she has to be qualified for me to be comfortable supporting her.

[GreyhoundFan]

Apparently Christie is going to announce his candidacy in the next few days.

 

[Xan]

So, does anyone have any guesses on why Christie is running?  He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell and he knows that.  Christie is an ass but he's not stupid.  

Has he been paid to be a pitbull and eviscerate Donald during a debate?  Is he going to start tweeting insults and make up names for Donny?  This will only hurt Trump but I can't see it helping DeSantis either.

Make no mistake, I'd love to see someone call Trump out for all his lies and stupidity.  I just don't know who's funding this and what the ultimate purpose is.  It feels to me like the work of Charles Koch.  What I'd like to know is what he (or whoever has the deep pockets) gets out of this stunt.

[fraurosena]

2 hours ago, Xan said:

So, does anyone have any guesses on why Christie is running?  He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell and he knows that.  Christie is an ass but he's not stupid.  

Has he been paid to be a pitbull and eviscerate Donald during a debate?  Is he going to start tweeting insults and make up names for Donny?  This will only hurt Trump but I can't see it helping DeSantis either.

Make no mistake, I'd love to see someone call Trump out for all his lies and stupidity.  I just don't know who's funding this and what the ultimate purpose is.  It feels to me like the work of Charles Koch.  What I'd like to know is what he (or whoever has the deep pockets) gets out of this stunt.

I’m more cynical than you. I think he’s running to ensure Trump gets the nomination. Like I said in an earlier post, the more people who run in the primaries, the more it solidifies Trump winning in the primaries because there is less chance of anyone other than Trump getting more than a third of the votes. It wouldn’t surprise me if even more people jump in the race. Even John Bolton is thinking of running.

It might seem dumbfounding to us, but it looks like the Republican powers that be are still very much behind Trump.

Edited June 1, 2023 by fraurosena

[Dandruff]

3 hours ago, Xan said:

So, does anyone have any guesses on why Christie is running?  He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell and he knows that.  Christie is an ass but he's not stupid.  

Has he been paid to be a pitbull and eviscerate Donald during a debate?  Is he going to start tweeting insults and make up names for Donny?  This will only hurt Trump but I can't see it helping DeSantis either.

Make no mistake, I'd love to see someone call Trump out for all his lies and stupidity.  I just don't know who's funding this and what the ultimate purpose is.  It feels to me like the work of Charles Koch.  What I'd like to know is what he (or whoever has the deep pockets) gets out of this stunt.

I'd trust Christie about as far as I could throw him...and I have trouble lifting a full Brita pitcher.

I see no reason to presume that the R candidates are all acting independently and with the sincere intention of winning the primary.  At a minimum, the more obvious losers might hope for something in return for endorsing those with a greater following.  Motivations, IMO, get progressively less innocent from there.

My guess is that Christie will be in it to help Trump.

[GreyhoundFan]

I’m sure all the GQP candidates have the same policy, even if they won’t admit it publicly. 

 

[47of74]

Well Joni had her combination cook off/Klan rally with losers like DeSatan, Mike, and Nikki in attendance.

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Amid plates of sliced pork, statement-making leather ensembles and piles of political T-shirts, eight Republican presidential hopefuls descended on Iowa to pitch themselves to voters and, in Mike Pence’s case, hop on a motorcycle, KCCI reported.

The former vice president and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were among the White House contenders appearing at a rally at the state fairgrounds near Des Moines hosted by U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst. Her annual political event, the “Roast and Ride” — a combination barbecue-rally and motorcycle ride — kicks off a busy summer campaign season heading into the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses early next year.

When asked about Trump’s absence, Todd says the former President is showing his “colors” by not attending.

DeSantis, with his wife, Casey, and three young kids in tow, chatted with voters, gave out autographs and signed the Bible of a man who thanked DeSantis for “standing up to Disney.” DeSantis just wrapped up his first week as an official candidate with a blitz of campaign stops across three early-voting states.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Nikki loves pandering to the NRA:

 

[GreyhoundFan]

I was thinking fifth or sixth:

 

[GreyhoundFan]

I wish these idiots would stop. All they will do is hand the election to TFG or DerSantis:

Of course, he has no specific, concrete plans or policies to achieve his goals. This list sounds like he’s running for Miss America—“I think we should have world peace…”

[GreyhoundFan]

"Mystery surrounds Mike Pence’s doomed presidential candidacy"

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Having spent the past 2½ years being booed by Republican audiences and mocked on social media, Mike Pence has decided that the American people are finally ready for him. So, with the obligatory period of prayer and contemplation out of the way, the former vice president has officially filed the paperwork to run for president.

There’s no mystery about whether Pence could overcome former president Donald Trump and seize the leadership of his party. The mystery is why he thinks he has any chance at all.

Pence is a photo negative image of contemporary political attractiveness, simultaneously repelling Republicans, Democrats and independents. In his bewildering belief that he might become president, he demonstrates the power of ambition to cloud the mind of even the most experienced politician.

Even if Pence reminds you of a regional manager at a midsize Indiana ball-bearing manufacturer, it’s easy to see how he could convince himself that he ought to be president. His résumé has all the traditional markers on the way to the White House: a stint in Congress, then a term as governor, then his time as vice president.

On the issues, Pence has rarely if ever uttered a word of dissent from the conservative catechism, whether on taxes or the safety net or abortion. He’s a born-again Christian whose faith is both fervent and sincere in a party heavy with evangelicals. And doesn’t having been vice president give his presidential bid automatic legitimacy? If Joe Biden can do it, why not Mike?

That is the question every long-shot candidate asks themselves: Why not me? Presidential campaigns are crazy and unpredictable. You never know what might happen.

The problem is that there is almost no significant group of voters who does not already dislike Pence for one reason or another. While Trump added him to his 2016 ticket to shore up support with the Christian right, that group’s loyalty to Trump grew so intense that Pence became an afterthought. The Trump presidency showed that what evangelicals wanted was not someone who believed what they believe, but someone who would smite their enemies with maximum savagery.

Then there’s Jan. 6, 2021.

The most conservative Republicans, whom Pence would want to appeal to, are now more fervently pro-Trump than ever. They are also the ones who call Pence a traitor because of the best thing he did as vice president: resisting Trump’s corrupt pressure to delay the electoral count in Congress so that the former president could overturn the outcome.

When Jan. 6 is inevitably brought up, Pence will become trapped. He says (correctly) that the law gave him no authority to halt the count. But that makes it sound as though his loyalty to rules outweighed his loyalty to Trump. Which was true, at least in that moment. But Trump taught the base that rules are for suckers.

The other option — to portray himself as a hero who saved democracy in the face of Trump’s corruption — isn’t possible either because it would define Trump as democracy’s enemy. After years of sycophancy toward his boss that was embarrassing — even by the standards of the lickspittles with whom Trump has always surrounded himself — Pence just doesn’t have it in him to defy Trump, even if he didn’t have to say the last thing Republican voters want to hear.

If anyone is going to beat Trump in the primaries, they’ll have to make the base feel something in the same way Trump does. Something thrilling and intense. That’s what they have come to expect from their leaders; the days when a plodding character such as Bob Dole or Mitt Romney could get the party’s nomination are long gone.

In a general election, Pence would offer voters the worst of all possible worlds: an uncharismatic candidate advocating the GOP’s unpopular policies. Voters are not clamoring for someone to tell them why we need to cut taxes for the rich and outlaw abortion, delivered in the tone of a stepdad explaining why you’re being grounded for the rest of the school year.

The latest RealClearPolitics polling average reveals Trump has the support of 53 percent of Republican primary voters, a healthy lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who averages 22 percent. Pence comes in at 3.8 percent. In other words, for every Republican who backs Pence, 25 aren’t.

Perhaps Pence hopes that once he reminds them of all he believes and has done, they’ll rush to his side. What he hasn’t said is why.

Other long-shot candidates have something resembling a rationale. Nikki Haley paints herself as the leader of a new generation of conservatives. Tim Scott offers a conservatism that is hard right in substance but kinder and gentler in manner. But Pence — who at some point might have seemed as though he was constructed in a lab to become the GOP nominee (experienced! conservative! devout!) — is now exactly what no one wants.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Boy, that room is brimming with enthusiasm. /s

 

[47of74]

44 minutes ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Boy, that room is brimming with enthusiasm. /s

 

To quote one Meadow Soprano, "Wow, listen to Mr. Mob Boss."

Spoiler

 

 

[Xan]

I'm beginning to rethink the Christie candidacy.  I do think he was encouraged to jump in because, initially, someone decided that Trump had a better chance against a larger field.  Now that Chris is talking, I think he's been tapped as a Trump-slayer.  The Republicans know that Trump has cost them elections and would probably lose again.  They also know that he's a crook.  I'm not sure who they think will take over as frontrunner but they know they've got to get rid of Donald.  Enter:  Chris Christie.  He knows where the bodies are buried.  He's already talking about Kushner taking $2 billion from the Saudis.  "The grift from this family is breathtaking."  Sure, there will always be a faithful contingent who don't believe any of it but Christie only has to peel away enough support so they can have the freedom to choose someone else.  

Trump's response to Christie?  Today he posted a doctored video of Christie at the event only he added in a big buffet with Christie holding a full plate.  It's the mean girl stuff again.  He's going to call Christie fat.  It won't matter.  Christie has way better material than Trump and he will use it.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Great trolling:

 

[GreyhoundFan]

I'm getting Jeb! "please clap" vibes: