2020 Presidential Election 2: The Primaries are upon us

[nausicaa]

7 minutes ago, TuringMachine said:

Tulsi is in that last category. I forgot about her until I read your post, and I expect to forget about her again in like 10 minutes.

Under current rules, because she won one delegate in America Samoa she gets to participate in the next debate. 

Theory: One of her strengths is that she's young and good looking and people like having something nice to look at while three septuagenarians shuffle around shaking their fists at clouds.

Solution: At the next debate, can't we just have a nice framed glamour shot of her on the stage while Sanders and Biden duke it out?

Edited March 5, 2020 by nausicaa

[fraurosena]

Has Warren announced who she's endorsing yet? 

[SassyPants]

2 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

Has Warren announced who she's endorsing yet? 

No. We are all waiting on that announcement.

With Tulsi on the stage the Democrat debate will have an Independent, Democratic Socialist, a Democrat and a closeted Republican.

[nausicaa]

A couple more things I found surprising and then I promise to stop monopolizing this thread. (Thank you by the way for giving me an alternative outlet to posting on my Facebook and getting in family fights. My mom thanks each and every one of you.)

1. Only 10-12% of voters in the Super Tuesday primaries use Twitter. Sanders did much better among those on Twitter. Just an interesting example of how much social media skews our perception of what others are talking about and doing. 

2. A poll today from FloridaPolitics of 1,882 Democratic FL voters shows Sanders possibly only getting TWELVE PERCENT of the vote in the primary. Granted, the poll skews older (over 50s) but Sanders also hasn't been getting out the youth vote the way people thought he would and it seems to pretty accurately reflect age turnout so far.

How could predictions have been so off? Is it social media creating little bunkers for us? Were the Castro comments this damaging?

https://www.scribd.com/document/450258847/Poll-of-Florida-s-Democratic-primary-March-4

 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

23 minutes ago, SassyPants said:

No. We are all waiting on that announcement.

With Tulsi on the stage the Democrat debate will have an Independent, Democratic Socialist, a Democrat and a closeted Republican.

I'm blanking  - who is the 4th person?

[front hugs > duggs]

I think @SassyPants was calling Bernie an Independent, Democratic Socialist, using both Independent and Democratic Socialist to describe him. Correct me if I'm wrong!

[SassyPants]

7 minutes ago, front hugs > duggs said:

I think @SassyPants was calling Bernie an Independent, Democratic Socialist, using both Independent and Democratic Socialist to describe him. Correct me if I'm wrong!

Yep!

[Rachel333]

2 hours ago, nausicaa said:

Also, this is probably more for a policy thread but I just learned that Sanders' Green Plan calls for banning nuclear power. And doesn't call for banning coal, oil, or natural gas. WTF? We would lose 50% of our emissions-free output. I thought we were past the hippie knee jerk "nuclear is bad" days.

It's frustrating that a guy who looks toward Europe for so much can't see the success of their nuclear programs. The more I learn of this guy's actual plans, the more turned off I am. 

I strongly disagree with him on that too, and actually the anti-nuclear stuff is probably the one thing I've seen a few of his supporters admit to not loving about his platform.

1 hour ago, nausicaa said:

It will be interesting to see where her votes go. Some people assume they're all going to Sanders, but trends and stats didn't seem to support that and it will be interesting to see how the past few days affect things. A poll showed 40% of Warren voters didn't have Sanders as their second choice. 

Oh yeah, they definitely won't all be going to Sanders like some people are assuming. A lot of people are like your friend in that they're blaming Bernie's poor showing on Warren with the assumption that all her voters would vote for Bernie, and that just does not seem to be true. (Especially after how a lot of Bernie supporters have treated Warren and her supporters... spamming snake emojis isn't a great way to build a coalition.) That theory also ignores that Bloomberg probably hurt Biden more than Warren hurt Sanders.

[fraurosena]

 

[Maggie Mae]

I know Sanders position on nuclear makes no sense, and so do a lot of people. But there are still anti-nuclear energy people out there, I don't understand it myself. My first experience with it was at the Hoover Dam when a random guy around my age asked if it could replace nuclear and then went on a rant. SO and I were like "should we poke the bear and encourage this for our amusement?" Instead we chose to ask questions about how much water lake Mead has lost. 

[fraurosena]

Of course, Bernie's immediately courting her followers.

 

[SassyPants]

18 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

 

Absolutely sexism and misogyny are alive and well in 2020, which makes choosing a VP reallly hard. Piss off 50% or turn off the other 50%.  

[fraurosena]

6 minutes ago, nausicaa said:

Yeah, I'm arguing with a true blue BernieBro right now (listen, I never said I was emotionally healthy, okay?) who is adamant Sanders is correct and all the experts hate nuclear because he did a three minute Google search. 

You guys, I've worked in the nuclear power field for over ten years. 

Permission to channel the spirit of Elizabeth Warren and vaporize him?

Ha, my first job after I had my kids was at a High Flux Reactor. So of course you're getting a resounding "Permission granted!" from me. 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

3 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

Ha, my first job after I had my kids was at a High Flux Reactor. So of course you're getting a resounding "Permission granted!" from me. 

Ha!  My brother has testified before congress on this as he wrote a peer reviewed and published paper on high flux reactors.

Permission granted from me, too!  Keeping fighting the good fight @nausicaa

[fraurosena]

Rufus hears our prayers, y'all. A few hours ago, this was discussed in this very thread, and now...

 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

I am crying at my desk...Elizabeth Warren's remarks about suspending her campaign are some of the most inspiring words I've ever read.

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/the-fight-goes-on-8f5ca2b4b557

[fraurosena]

Bernie Sanders Cancels Mississippi Rally, Shifting Focus to Michigan

Quote

Senator Bernie Sanders has canceled a planned rally in Jackson, Miss., and will instead travel to Michigan on Friday, a striking indication that his presidential campaign is shifting its focus to the Midwest and largely ceding another Southern state to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to people familiar with the plans.

After holding a rally in Phoenix on Thursday night, Mr. Sanders had been scheduled to travel to Jackson on Friday for a rally focused on racial justice.

The change in plans suggests that Mr. Sanders will not challenge Mr. Biden for the support of black voters in the South — a vital base in the Democratic Party — and is instead going all-in on the Midwest as he tries to compete with Mr. Biden for working-class voters there. Black voters in the South have overwhelmingly backed Mr. Biden to this point, and on Super Tuesday their support lifted him in states like Alabama, North Carolina and Virginia.

In Alabama, Mr. Sanders won only 9 percent of black voters, compared with 72 percent for Mr. Biden, according to exit polls. Mr. Biden outperformed Mr. Sanders among black voters in Virginia by more than 50 points, and by 40 points or more in Texas and North Carolina. In several states, Mr. Sanders came in third among black voters, behind not only Mr. Biden but also Michael R. Bloomberg.

The dramatic shift in his schedule was also an acknowledgment that he had not improved his standing among black voters in the South four years after his first run for president. In 2016, he faced criticism for his inability to organize support from African-Americans, a weakness that contributed to his loss to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.

Speaking to reporters in Burlington on Thursday, Mr. Sanders acknowledged the scheduling change but said his campaign was sending staff members to Mississippi. “If possible, I will try to get to Mississippi,” he said. “You can’t go everywhere.”

“Every state is important,” he continued, adding, “Michigan is very, very important.” But he did not call Michigan a must-win state for his campaign.

Sanders aides are confident that Mr. Sanders lines up favorably against Mr. Biden in the industrial Midwest, and they have already laid out plans to highlight Mr. Biden’s record on trade, which includes voting for the North American Free Trade Agreement. While many blue-collar voters say they feel a connection to Mr. Biden, many have also grown increasingly suspicious of free trade in the Trump era.

In an interview, Faiz Shakir, the campaign manager for Mr. Sanders, said the campaign was considering running an ad in Midwestern states like Michigan and Ohio that will emphasize Mr. Biden’s record on trade, and Mr. Sanders has already added blistering remarks about Mr. Biden into his stump speech.

“I will be talking in Michigan about the fact that Joe supported disastrous trade agreements,” Mr. Sanders said Thursday.

A crucial part of Mr. Sanders’s argument has been the idea that he is the most electable candidate, able to defeat President Trump in a general election by appealing to the same white working-class voters who helped hand Mr. Trump his victory in 2016. But among aides and advisers, there has been a growing recognition that his claim hinges on his ability to demonstrate this strength in Midwestern states during the primary.

Mr. Sanders’s disappointing performance on Super Tuesday — he won only four states to Mr. Biden’s 10 — has only increased the sense of urgency inside his campaign.

During his news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Sanders said he was “disappointed” in the results on Tuesday. And in an extraordinary concession, he admitted that his campaign had not managed to generate the soaring turnout among young people that he had banked on to secure the nomination.

While Mr. Sanders has managed to draw support in high numbers among other demographic groups, including Latino voters, his deficit with black voters in the South was central to his losses on Super Tuesday.

Rather than cite his own shortcomings, however, Mr. Sanders has pointed to his opponents’ strong connections with African-American voters. In an interview on Wednesday night with Rachel Maddow of MSNBC, he suggested that Mr. Biden was benefiting from his relationship with former President Barack Obama — and used a parallel argument to explain his deficit in 2016 as well.

“We’re running against somebody who has touted his relationship with Barack Obama for eight years,” Mr. Sanders said. “Barack Obama is enormously popular in this country in general and the African-American community. Running against Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton was enormously popular.”

“It’s not that I’m not popular,” he added. “Biden is running with his ties to Obama and that’s working well.”

He also said he was generally doing well among voters of color, including Latinos, and with younger black voters.

 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

14 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

Bernie Sanders Cancels Mississippi Rally, Shifting Focus to Michigan

 

So is the takeaway that he's not going to address WHY black voters don't support him and just try to end run around them with other demographic groups?

If so that's really dismissive of a large and integral part of the democratic base.  

[Ticklish]

1 hour ago, fraurosena said:

Rufus hears our prayers, y'all. A few hours ago, this was discussed in this very thread, and now...

 

That's a really great start, but is it paid time off? Because a lot of employees at places like Walmart can't afford to take a few unpaid hours to vote. They'd have to really feel strongly about voting to make that choice between voting or losing money from their paycheck. 

[HerNameIsBuffy]

14 minutes ago, Ticklish said:

That's a really great start, but is it paid time off? Because a lot of employees at places like Walmart can't afford to take a few unpaid hours to vote. They'd have to really feel strongly about voting to make that choice between voting or losing money from their paycheck. 

Good question.  Idk how my new employer handles it but every place I've worked before would give employees time to vote, but it was unpaid for non-exempt workers.  It really disenfranchises people with lower income positions.

[Ticklish]

If I remember, my employer allows us time off to vote, but we either need to use our PTO or make up the missed time by working later. I've always voted after work, but I think that's the policy. And I'm just an office drone, not someone working for minimum wage who may not have paid time off to use. 

[nausicaa]

11 minutes ago, HerNameIsBuffy said:

So is the takeaway that he's not going to address WHY black voters don't support him and just try to end run around them with other demographic groups?

If so that's really dismissive of a large and integral part of the democratic base.  

He said earlier today that it's because of Biden's connection to Obama. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486055-sanders-says-biden-winning-african-american-support-by-running-with-his

Which doesn't explain much because he wasn't doing well with black voters even before Biden started doing well in the polls. The Sanders camp really underestimated how important black people are to winning the nomination and just never dealt with these issues, despite many people warning them of this for years. 

[Smee]

This is going to sound uninformed but you guys have a freaking BIG country and I find the political system hard to keep up with. Which of the states that have already voted are swing states in the general, and who did they prefer in the primary? I’m just thinking, if Sanders is successfully courting people who will vote blue anyway or Biden is winning states that have no chance of going to the Dems in the general, those wins mean less in the scheme of things.

[SassyPants]

14 minutes ago, Smee said:

This is going to sound uninformed but you guys have a freaking BIG country and I find the political system hard to keep up with. Which of the states that have already voted are swing states in the general, and who did they prefer in the primary? I’m just thinking, if Sanders is successfully courting people who will vote blue anyway or Biden is winning states that have no chance of going to the Dems in the general, those wins mean less in the scheme of things.

Most of Biden’s wins are in states that historically go red in the general. ME, MA, MN traditionally go blue. VA is one that could go either way. I think what we’ve seen thus far is people reallllllllly want a candidate that can beat Trump, and for that, I am glad.

[nausicaa]

17 minutes ago, Smee said:

This is going to sound uninformed but you guys have a freaking BIG country and I find the political system hard to keep up with. Which of the states that have already voted are swing states in the general, and who did they prefer in the primary? I’m just thinking, if Sanders is successfully courting people who will vote blue anyway or Biden is winning states that have no chance of going to the Dems in the general, those wins mean less in the scheme of things.

You don't sound uninformed. It's confusing. I just had to explain to a lifetime US citizen that Florida is a swing state this morning. 

Perennial swing states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. 

Of the swing state primaries so far Biden has won Virginia, Minnesota, and North Carolina.

Bernie has won Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. 

(Some Sanders supporters were trying to argue that Texas could become a swing state, but have quieted on that one since Biden won it. It will probably go Republican in the general election.)

The biggest news is that it looks like the primary in Florida next week will be a rout. In the latest poll this morning, it looks as if Sanders may not even reach 15% in a two-man race. Florida and Ohio are often considered the most important swing states.

It's also looking good for Biden in Michigan, with the governor and several other popular politicians there endorsing him. 

And Biden is from Pennsylvania (which also borders Delaware where he served as a longtime senator) and he is reportedly very popular, so things have long looked good for him there. 

Wisconsin will likely go for Sanders. 

Ohio is still a total crap shoot as of now. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by nausicaa