OK, I'm officially scared... Santorum

[3 is enough]

Santorum wins Missouri? Meh, it's non-binding, no delegates tonight.

BUT:

He's also leading in Colorado and Minnesota! WTF?

[theologygeek]

It's going to be an interesting election. Many people I talked to don't like anyone who is running. I don't either.

[Witsec7]

Rest easy. Here's a good view of the big picture from Huffpo.

How 'Non-Binding' Are The Colorado and Minnesota Caucuses?

The ongoing discussion over the technically "non-binding" nature of the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses can be confusing. Technically, the straw votes we are reporting from those states do not directly determine the number of delegates each candidate wins the Republican convention in Tampa. However, the delegate selection process does begin tonight in those two states.

But will winning the straw vote translate into more delegates? Yes. One of the better explanations of how this works comes from political scientist Jonathan Bernstein:

Think of it this way. If the campaigns were perfectly organized, then every caucuser in each of these states would vote for a next-stage delegate who was loyal to the same candidate he or she voted for in the straw poll. That would produce county conventions that perfectly translated those precinct results up the line, and so on, with the result that the eventual delegation would simply reflect the original straw vote.

"Except," he continues, "the campaigns are not perfectly organized." Not everyone who votes in the straw vote will participate in selection of precinct delegates at tonight's caucuses. And some of the selected delegates may shift their preferences at the next level of the process. Ultimately, there are "no rules guaranteeing that anything that happens tonight will translate into eventual delegate numbers; it's all about actual people participating in the various stages of the process, and the ability of the candidate campaigns to organize."

Read more of Jonathan Bernstein's post here.

-- Mark Blumenthal

[MadameX]

That is somewhat comforting but it still frightens and saddens me that I had to move to this hell-hole state in which I am apparently surrounded by totally insane people.

[ADoyle90815]

This is going to be interesting, as most people I know don't like anyone who is running. If anything, Obama could even be re-elected if enough Santorum is spread and he gets the nomination. He and people like Gingrich are too nutty for moderate voters in the general election.

[theologygeek]

This is going to be interesting, as most people I know don't like anyone who is running. If anything, Obama could even be re-elected if enough Santorum is spread and he gets the nomination. He and people like Gingrich are too nutty for moderate voters in the general election.

I'm writing in Minnie Mouse's name.

[Angri-la]

This is going to be interesting, as most people I know don't like anyone who is running. If anything, Obama could even be re-elected if enough Santorum is spread and he gets the nomination. He and people like Gingrich are too nutty for moderate voters in the general election.

I am hoping what happened with Ralph Nader happens to the Republicans: Romney gets the nom, does not pick an uber conservative to run with him. Another candidate, like Santorum or Eye of Newt will run as a "3rd Party Candidate", as Romney is not conservative enough. Fiscal conservatives vote for Romney; social conservatives vote for The Teabagger. Vote splits, Obama wins. Is he my favorite? No, but he beats the scary theocracy government people by a large margin, and the uber wealthy white man with the giant teeth.

[Witsec7]

Even it it gets to the convention (and its unlikely it will) they Republicans must nominate a moderate :roll: over frothy. Frothy cannot win a national election for them. Now a frothy nomination would mean a slam dunk for Obama, but the R's do want to put up a fight. First they have to fight each other.

What this does mean is frothy will get a bit more money in his coffers and be able to prolong his childrens crusade. I'm sure the republicans want to put a hit on him. At this point he's doing nothing more than muddying the waters.

[VenusDaisy]

That is somewhat comforting but it still frightens and saddens me that I had to move to this hell-hole state in which I am apparently surrounded by totally insane people.

I'm surrounded by a bunch of crazies too. We moved from Southern California to biggest shit-hole state in the nation - Arizona. :evil:

[MadameX]

I'm surrounded by a bunch of crazies too. We moved from Southern California to biggest shit-hole state in the nation - Arizona. :evil:

My condolences! Which part of So Cal? I'm from northeast LA.

We should start some kind of online support group for displaced So Californians!

[Witsec7]

I'm surrounded by a bunch of crazies too. We moved from Southern California to biggest shit-hole state in the nation - Arizona. :evil:

When I miss it I fly down for a week . Then I willingly return to Boregonia, but I do live on the left side of the state. :lol:

[VenusDaisy]

My condolences! Which part of So Cal? I'm from northeast LA.

We should start some kind of online support group for displaced So Californians!

Small world! I'm from northeast LA as well! Born and the raised in the valley - the San Gabriel Valley! :D

edited for spelling my iPad has a mind of it's own! :?

[MadameX]

Is the valley NE LA? I always thought it was more its own thing, The Valley. I feel like LA needs to somehow codify its neighborhoods like NYC so when someone says, like, "The Westside" you don't sit there going, "Do they mean west of the 405 or west of downtown or what?" Anyway, I moved from the Highland Park/Pasadena area. Grew up at the beach, though!

*sniff* I miss home!

[dawn9476]

There is nothing to be scared of. Santorum is running a campaign like only white christian males vote. I doubt that would change in the general election which would mean an easy victory for President Obama.

[Rosa]

Apparently 2000 of the 4000 Republicans in the state voted for Santorum.

And there were pockets of stoner libertarian rich white dudes in St Paul and Rochester.

I'd weep for the future if I didn't know Obama could wipe the floor with any of them. And everyone hates Gingrich.

[MadameX]

There is nothing to be scared of. Santorum is running a campaign like only white christian males vote. I doubt that would change in the general election which would mean an easy victory for President Obama.

This may be true but it doesn't change the fact that, given the choice, my neighbors would vote for Santorum. This also probably means that, given the choice, they'd burn me at the stake or something.

[NurseNell]

I'm in MN and I don't know a single soul who supports Santorum.

[Witsec7]

I'm in MN and I don't know a single soul who supports Santorum.

Nell the turnouts have been at historic lows. Most folks in the the beauty contest states know that these votes are merely used to gain fundraising for real primaries.

[NurseNell]

Nell the turnouts have been at historic lows. Most folks in the the beauty contest states know that these votes are merely used to gain fundraising for real primaries.

That's true. MN has the highest voter turnout in the country so Obama will win here.

[Witsec7]

That's true. MN has the highest voter turnout in the country so Obama will win here.

Yea any way you have all those Unitarians in the Twin Cities :lol:

riffles

[BravaAmica]

I'm in MN and I don't know a single soul who supports Santorum.

I'll bet you do. They're just too embarrassed to tell you. Just like they're embarrassed to tell you their iPod is full of Nickleback.

[BravaAmica]

This may be true but it doesn't change the fact that, given the choice, my neighbors would vote for Santorum. This also probably means that, given the choice, they'd burn me at the stake or something.

My ILs would vote for whoever is against Obama because [as SIL told me], they just can't vote for a black man. :roll:

[MrsYoungie]

Can anyone give this poor confused Canadian a quick lesson in how the heck all these primaries work? You guys take so long to elect somebody; and almost as long just to nominate somebody. It seems so drawn out. Then there are primaries and staw polls??? Confusion!

N.B. - We Cannucks can nominate a party leader and have a general election in under 3 months. Start to finish.

[PokaDot]

I am sooooooooooooo ashamed to be from Colorado now.

I blame the fundies. I've noticed a ton more fundies in Colorado over the past few years (mostly at Wal-Mart). Everyone else was probably "oh shit, was that tonight?" and the fundies were like "OMGGGGGGGGGGGGG SANTYRUMP!!!!!" *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* Do you think if we do this long enough we'll get the keys to the white house so we can get rid of ebil wimmin? *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump* *hump*

Of course, as a registered "Unaffiliated" I can't vote in the caucuses, or the primary.

[PokaDot]

Can anyone give this poor confused Canadian a quick lesson in how the heck all these primaries work? You guys take so long to elect somebody; and almost as long just to nominate somebody. It seems so drawn out. Then there are primaries and staw polls??? Confusion!

N.B. - We Cannucks can nominate a party leader and have a general election in under 3 months. Start to finish.

Um.....in a quick way?

The two big parties have this huge ass drawn out process of going state to state to get delegates to win the party nomination. I think it requires 1100 some. Each state, based on population, gives a different amount. And because god is cruel, each state holds a caucus (non-binding) or an election (binding) on a different night.

People slowly drop out, and endorse someone else, which means jack shit to most people, but I think in reality means the delegates go to the person they endorse.

After that, we go to the general election where it's hell on earth to live in a "Swing State" aka a state that doesn't always vote Dem or Rep, but will switch to one way or the other depending on who is pissing them off the least. If you live in one of these states, you pretty much need to not watch TV, or listen to the Radio for about 6 months because almost every ad will be a political smear ad. People will also call you to try to convince you to donate to their party, even if you manage to not be on any distribution list (not sure if this is the same if you don't live in a swing state).

Whoever wins the general election (which is "Won" by the stupid ass Electoral College* instead of a popular vote) is president. The general election is like a repeat of the primaries, but with only two people (despite the fact that like....20 people run each year).

*The electoral college was someone stupid idea to help the less populated states out in the days of no media. Each state is given a certain number of delegates, based on population, and you need 270 to win the electoral college.

Yeah....that's my cynical 30 second info dump on how we elect someone.

So much money is wasted on these things.....I wish we had a law that said you had to donate (to oh say....the national debt, or research for orphan diseases) $1 for every $1 you spent on an election.

ETA: I just realized that doesn't answer your question about a straw poll. Apologies, I got too distracted by ranting about the electoral college.

For the most part a straw poll is a caucus, but not always (Iowa does a straw poll in August, but it doesn't mean anything). They are non-binding, which just means bragging rights, but not dedicated delegates to vote for you come the RNC or DNC (Republican/Democratic National Convention-where the party nominee is formally picked by the delegates).

Yeah....each state does something different. But unless you actually run or are a parrot for a TV station, I don't think people tend to care about how the process works outside of their state.