Government Response to Coronavirus 5: We're On Our Own

[Ozlsn]

On 6/2/2020 at 7:11 AM, Dandruff said:

I expect coronavirus cases to spike shortly around cities where protests are being held.  When the spikes occur Trump can easily start to blame them on the protesters and continue doing so until November, at least

I expect there will be spikes, but honestly between now and November? Trump has several billion opportunities to come out with something outrageous and to completely mismanage - actually even "mismanage" is a step above his "leadership" - any new crisis. At this point I'm half expecting the Big One to hit California next month, followed by a force 5 hurricane hitting Galveston in August and then the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting in Sept.

Oh and someone will leak Trump's emails in Oct, which will be what the election is all about.

[GreyhoundFan]

Everything he touches dies:

 

[Ozlsn]

2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Everything he touches dies:

 

They should have kept him in the parking lot, or the office area. Screw photo ops, there is no way he should have been allowed anywhere near the product. 

[Audrey2]

10 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Everything he touches dies:

 

Or, if they are the really long and unpleasant kind (the kind that feels like it's touching your brain for all but Trump- I don't think he has a brain) , we can save them and use them for Trump's daily test.

[smittykins]

Governor Cuomo announced yesterday that NY churches can reopen at 25% capacity.  Which is about the size of my congregation. ?

(When I began attending regularly in 1995, we had two services every Sunday.  Now we’re down to one, and we haven’t had church school in close to five years.)

[ADoyle90815]

In California, we've had a 5.7 earthquake that is now considered to be a large aftershock to last year's 4th of July earthquake last week. Still, I've had the Big One on my 2020 bingo card for a while. California just announced on Friday that more places can reopen, including gyms and pro sports events, although I think it means without fans. Hair salons and barbershops have slowly opened up, but nail salons are still closed for now. In my opinion, nail salons should have opened before gyms because those salons are easier to sanitize than gyms are.

The sad thing about the looters who ruined peaceful BLM protests is that the stores were just starting to reopen for in-store shopping. I'm also expecting spikes in cities where those protests have been taking place, since even though people were wearing masks, the crowds made it look like social distancing wasn't possible.

Edited June 7, 2020 by ADoyle90815

[CTRLZero]

2 minutes ago, ADoyle90815 said:

Still, I've had the Big One on my 2020 bingo card for a while.

I've been thinking about additional horrible things that could happen in 2020, and last night I had a nightmare that the Palins popped up again on the national level.  *shudder* 

[Ozlsn]

On 6/2/2020 at 7:11 AM, Dandruff said:

I expect coronavirus cases to spike shortly around cities where protests are being held.  When the spikes occur Trump can easily start to blame them on the protesters

So I'm already seeing memes here from the LNP blaming protesters and the ALP for any future clusters. Which given the LNP are in power at a federal level as well as in NSW, Tas and SA is a bit rich - want to start looking at why the protests are happening before jumping immediately on the bandwagon? 

[Dandruff]

1 hour ago, Ozlsn said:

So I'm already seeing memes here from the LNP blaming protesters and the ALP for any future clusters. Which given the LNP are in power at a federal level as well as in NSW, Tas and SA is a bit rich - want to start looking at why the protests are happening before jumping immediately on the bandwagon? 

I'm a bit confused by your post.  What does the reason for the protests have to do with the potential for them spreading COVID-19?

[Audrey2]

16 hours ago, ADoyle90815 said:

Still, I've had the Big One on my 2020 bingo card for a while.

The big one could also be in the Pacific Northwest. I know that they are expecting a Cascadia earthquake that could potentially hit it anytime since the last one hit in 1700. from what I've read they're anticipating that it would be about a 9.0.

[Ozlsn]

On 6/8/2020 at 7:39 AM, Dandruff said:

I'm a bit confused by your post.  What does the reason for the protests have to do with the potential for them spreading COVID-19?

I thought I'd replied to this, but obviously not. I didn't express myself very well (blaming lack of coffee). I'm mostly annoyed at the conservatives already starting the blame game before any actual spread of disease has been confirmed, and trying to use it to political advantage. If they really wanted protesters to stay home they could always try addressing the actual issues they are protesting about, especially in the states where they hold power. 

To be honest I'm also annoyed at some of the publicity put out by people promoting the marches - "walk shoulder to shoulder" made quite a lot of people wonder where the writer had been during the past couple of months.

I don't know if we will have new clusters originating from the marches on Saturday or not - the risk in SA was judged low by that state government, the risk in NSW judged higher (but the march was permitted after it went to court).  SA has had zero new cases for a while and is down to no hospitalised cases whereas NSW had 2 new cases in the last 24 hours (Vic had 3), and has 9 hospitalised cases (Vic has 7). All states have reopened schools and have socially distanced opening of cafes, restaurants etc. 

[GreyhoundFan]

McConnell needs to go.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Because of course:

 

[Ozlsn]

2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Because of course:

 

If there is a new administration elected in November the very first thing they should do is start hiring forensic accountants to go through this. And then start pressing charges against every single person involved in corrupt transactions.

[GreyhoundFan]

"The Trump administration has all but given up fighting the pandemic"

Spoiler

“It’s going to disappear,” President Trump said about the coronavirus at the end of February, before the first American died from covid-19. “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” It never did — to date, over 2 million Americans have been infected with the virus and over 112,000 have died — but Trump’s administration is now acting like the miracle already came.

In fact, it’s hardly an exaggeration to say that the president and his administration have all but given up fighting the pandemic.

The task force led by Vice President Mike Pence to coordinate the government’s actions has scaled back its work, only meeting occasionally. The Centers for Disease Control reportedly “remains largely demoralized and often sidelined” in fighting the virus.

And dilettante of disaster Jared Kushner, who for a while had commandeered the administration’s pandemic response, seems to have moved on; he’s informally running Trump’s reelection campaign, now that he has achieved peace in the Middle East and fixed the country’s policing problem.

And while public health officials have said a thousand times that we need an aggressive testing and tracing program in order to fully contain the virus, at the national level we have neither. In fact, while Trump may occasionally brag about the number of tests that have been done, the federal government has essentially told states that when it comes to testing they’re on their own.

The Post’s Rachel Weiner and Rosalind Helderman report that a patchwork of approaches to testing has developed in the states, with vast differences between them:

The wide range of approaches across the country comes as the federal government has offered little guidance on the best way to test a broad swath of the population, leaving state public health officials to wrestle on their own with difficult questions about how to measure the spread of the virus and make decisions about reopening their economies.

With everything else going on, including the collapse of the economy and the wave of protests over police brutality and racism, the pandemic is getting less attention. So it’s worth stressing just how appalling this is: The United States has no national coronavirus testing strategy.

A month and a half ago the White House issued a “guidance” to states that amounted to “You guys should maybe do some testing, but it’s not the federal government’s responsibility.” And that’s still where we are.

Meanwhile, nearly half the states are showing rising rates of infection and hospitalizations, with particularly sharp increases in Arizona, Texas, and Florida. According to the latest projections, we could reach 170,000 to 200,000 deaths by the beginning of October.

And what is the president doing? Like a vampire deprived of blood, his hunger for the adulation of the crowd became too overwhelming to resist, so next week he’ll be holding his first rally since the pandemic began. The assembled faithful will prove their devotion to the president by not wearing masks, just as they do at the White House and at his campaign headquarters.

But Trump isn’t stupid. He’s forcing everyone who comes to that rally to sign a release giving up their right to sue if they get infected while watching Trump ramble through an hour-long stream-of-consciousness rant about the liberal media, immigrants, Hillary Clinton, toilets with insufficient flushing power, and whatever else is making him mad that day.

He’s also very concerned about his convention. Facing hesitation from North Carolina (its original site) over the idea of stuffing 20,000 people into an arena where they can breathe in each other’s droplets, Republicans found willing officials in Jacksonville, Florida, so Trump will go there to accept his nomination.

“We’re going to have a packed arena,” said RNC chair Ronna McDaniel. It should be covid-tastic.

If there’s a strategy in all this, it may be to hope that the public comes to see a thousand or so people dying every day from covid-19 as just background noise, and certainly not something that should be blamed on the president.

“I spoke to our health experts at some length last evening,” said White House economic policy adviser Larry Kudlow on Friday. “They’re saying there is no second spike. Let me repeat that: There is no second spike.”

Recall that Kudlow famously said in late February: “We have contained this, I won’t say airtight but pretty close to airtight.” But he may be technically right about a “second spike,” at least nationally. What we’re seeing is less a spike than an unremittingly high level of new infections and deaths. While other countries managed to drive the pandemic further and further down, our rate is staying stubbornly high, fed by the eagerness of people to cast off masks and social distancing and “get back to normal.”

For the White House, “normal” means not having to worry about the pandemic anymore, so they can concentrate on praising Trump for his inspiring leadership and towering genius. If they wish for it hard enough, maybe the virus will just disappear, like a miracle. It sure beats actually doing the long and hard work to get it under control.

 

[Ozlsn]

6 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

And dilettante of disaster Jared Kushner,

Ok, that made me laugh. The rest? Less so. 

 

[Ozlsn]

Went on a bit of a link hop from the above link and came across this:

Florida got rid of its top geographic data scientist in May. Rebekah Jones now publicizes statistics on her own, at Florida Covid Action, which gives a higher case total and a lower number of people tested than data published by the state.

The official site has 70,971 positive cases listed.  Jones's site - which uses the same database from what I can see, and is obviously using different criteria, has 78,688.

[SassyPants]

On 6/12/2020 at 8:41 PM, Ozlsn said:

Went on a bit of a link hop from the above link and came across this:

Florida got rid of its top geographic data scientist in May. Rebekah Jones now publicizes statistics on her own, at Florida Covid Action, which gives a higher case total and a lower number of people tested than data published by the state.

The official site has 70,971 positive cases listed.  Jones's site - which uses the same database from what I can see, and is obviously using different criteria, has 78,688.

FL was one of the states as reported in the Atlantic that skewed their results by combining the results of testing for current/active disease (generally a viral swab obtained from the nasal cavity) with antibody testing ( blood test indicative of exposure to the virus).

[Ozlsn]

7 hours ago, SassyPants said:

FL was one of the states as reported in the Atlantic that skewed their results by combining the results of testing for current/active disease (generally a viral swab obtained from the nasal cavity) with antibody testing ( blood test indicative of exposure to the virus).

That's less "skewed" than "rendered useless". OK, there are times when both tests in combination can be useful (neg PCR/pos Ab can indicate that you have been exposed but aren't currently infected - or that they need to repeat the PCR swab to confirm that you aren't infected) but as data sets they should be independent. Why would you do that?!

[SassyPants]

1 hour ago, Ozlsn said:

That's less "skewed" than "rendered useless". OK, there are times when both tests in combination can be useful (neg PCR/pos Ab can indicate that you have been exposed but aren't currently infected - or that they need to repeat the PCR swab to confirm that you aren't infected) but as data sets they should be independent. Why would you do that?!

Because Republican administered states will do whatever it takes to follow Trump’s directive, no matter how damaging or amoral. It’s all about Trump’s narrative and maintaining control at all levels and branches of government. By putting all the tests together, they can claim that testing for active disease is being done in greater numbers than is actually happening, and of course antibody testing results are not counted in the numbers of active disease. This is exactly what Trump wants.

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

"Mike Pence’s deceptions unmask Trump’s dangerous reelection strategy"

Spoiler

President Trump and his advisers have plainly decided they have no hope of truly defeating the novel coronavirus and getting the nation on track to meaningful, sustained economic recovery in time for his reelection.

So they’re spending far more of their time on the next best thing: creating the illusion that we have already roared most of the way back to victory on both fronts.

A window into the inner workings of this effort has just been thrown wide open by Vice President Pence, who reportedly told governors on a conference call to emphasize the role of increased testing in creating reported spikes in coronavirus cases.

At first glance, this might look like just more of the usual depraved and dishonest minimization of the threat of the coronavirus. But it illustrates a much broader species of duplicity, one that carries active dangers to the country at a perilous moment.

On that conference call, Pence encouraged governors to “explain to your citizens the magnitude of increase in testing,” not merely because more testing might be a good thing, but also because this is the primary cause of the “marginal rise in number” of coronavirus cases.

This is deceptive. As a new Post analysis finds, in six states, the seven-day average of new cases has gone up in the past two weeks even as average testing has dropped. In another 14 states, the rate of new cases is rising faster than the rise in the average number of tests.

Meanwhile, that analysis finds, in 10 states, the rise in positive testing has been edging up in the past two weeks, a key metric for gauging Pence’s claim and the need for worry about spread.

A deeper deception

But this deception serves a larger and more pernicious one: The idea that any and all new outbreaks can be dismissed as mere localized outbursts and not as a sign of broader peril. Tellingly, Pence called outbreaks “intermittent” and took care to tell governors that Trump has been using the term “embers.”

This language is almost certainly not accidental. It’s designed to imply something that can easily be doused — that is, easily contained without broader damage. The idea that any outbreaks reflect increased testing helps reinforce that impression.

But the real picture is much more complicated and worrisome. As health expert Scott Gottlieb points out, these trends — rising cases in many states plus increased positive testing — are “concerning” and “suggestive of expanding outbreaks”:

In other words, these “embers” may already be setting bigger fires as we speak.

But in so many ways, Trump’s response is designed to create the illusion that the problem has been entirely licked. The task force is largely winding down. Trump has a rally planned in Oklahoma, justified by Pence’s false claim that the curve has been flattened there. And Trump and Pence continue to refuse to wear masks in public — something Trump reportedly worries would send the wrong message.

Dangerous illusions

This active, ongoing minimization effort makes it less likely that we’ll be able to successfully douse any such “embers” when they flare up.

As Gottlieb and Yuval Levin point out in a must-read, we’re entering a dicey period in which maximum flexibility will be required. This means finding the right middle ground between restarting large-scale shutdowns — which the public might not tolerate — and doing little to nothing.

That middle ground involves state and local officials being able to rapidly respond to outbreaks with what Gottlieb and Levin describe as “focused guidance” designed to “curtail specific activities that are sources of spread,” which might be more palatable than restarted shutdowns. And it involves people continuing to social distance and wear masks.

Those are likely to be undermined by Trump’s effort to create the impression that the coronavirus has been defeated. It could mean less mask-wearing and social distancing — and again, Trump and Pence continue to refuse to set an example here — and less willingness to accept even more focused guidance.

But to Trump, creating the illusion of near-total victory appears paramount.

Duplicity on the economy

You can see a similar duplicity at work — and similar dangers associated with it — on the economic front, too.

After the unexpectedly good May jobs report, Trump’s reelection effort immediately unleashed a $10 million ad campaign proclaiming that “the great American comeback has begun.”

This is absurd — we’re still 20 million jobs in the hole, and the long-term prognosis is extremely dire. But notably, Trump and Republicans have seized on those jobs numbers for the explicit purpose of opposing additional economic rescue efforts. Half of this is ideological, undoubtedly, but the other half is surely a desire to feed the illusion that we’re roaring back.

Similarly, Trump keeps jumping on news about the markets as follows:

Here again the pattern is clear. As Paul Krugman points out, Trump and his team have long taken the “rising market as validation” for everything they do, which risks enabling the “irresponsibility” of an administration that doesn’t “want to deal with reality in the first place.”

And so, the desire to feed the illusion that we’re already vaulting back to greatness (whether by absurdly citing upticks in jobs or hailing the market) itself makes it less likely that Trump — and Republicans — will agree to more economic measures that would minimize long-term misery.

Similarly, on the coronavirus, the suggestion that new spikes are merely the result of increased testing and constitute easily doused “embers” makes it less likely that our government and society will do what it takes to minimize needless future spread — and death.

The relentless prizing of illusion over reality — that’s the danger Pence’s deceptions have unmasked.

 

[Ozlsn]

2 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Vice President Pence, who reportedly told governors on a conference call to emphasize the role of increased testing in creating reported spikes in coronavirus cases.

If the governors do this they are idiots. The federal government has done bugger all to help them manage this, will leave them high and dry again with no help as more cases hit, and will abandon them politically as soon as it becomes expedient. They'd be better off being upfront about what is happening in their state, what the prognosis is and getting people onside as much as possible to work together until it's possible to return to normal, whatever that becomes. 

It's a great strategy to benefit Trumps campaign but I don't think it's a good one for them.

[Cartmann99]

In my mostly rural county, it's taken less than a month for the number of confirmed cases to double. and we've tested less than 3% of the people who live here.

Today's numbers:

Spoiler

[GreyhoundFan]

Ted sums it up nicely: