The Russian Connection 2

[GrumpyGran]

46 minutes ago, fraurosena said:

Ah, thanks! I'm quickly shovelling my dinner into my mouth as I type this, so I can start installing my new laptop which has just been delivered. (Yay!)

In the meantime, here's a link to Seth Abramson's mega-mega thread on the matter:

 

 

Good Lord, Seth does go on, doesn't he? I made it to 61. But he does make the points very clearly. I do think Jared is in trouble. What will happen? Under the bus or pardon?

I think dumpy will get rid of Sessions. He seems too weak to handle what's coming. Dumpy needs someone he knows will fire Mueller. But will he do a distraction firing later today? Is Rex leaving now?

[VelociRapture]

Imma just leave this here. Enjoy! 

[Bethella]

@VelociRapture I'm stealing that!

[VelociRapture]

5 minutes ago, Bethella said:

@VelociRapture I'm stealing that!

I stole it from a comment on an article shared by Facebook God!  

[Cartmann99]

1 hour ago, GrumpyGran said:

Good Lord, Seth does go on, doesn't he? I made it to 61. But he does make the points very clearly.

You may find this helpful for reading those super long tweetstorms:

Quote

Contrary to popular opinion, some tweetstorms are good, but reading them on Twitter can be a pain in the ass. Thread Reader reformats a tweetstorm into a readable essay, while preserving links and images, like so. You can even send the storm to Instapaper and read it later.

To reformat a tweetstorm, paste the URL of the first tweet into Thread Reader, or reply to the tweet with the word unroll and mention @tttthreads.

https://lifehacker.com/thread-reader-reformats-tweetstorms-into-text-essays-1798630765

[Rachel333]

The "very senior member" was Kushner. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/kushner-senior-transition-official-told-flynn-contact-russia

[GrumpyGran]

2 minutes ago, Rachel333 said:

The "very senior member" was Kushner. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/kushner-senior-transition-official-told-flynn-contact-russia

Makes sense. He's such a arrogant little prick. I can see him ordering around other people waaaay above him in experience and knowledge. So did he lie to Mueller? Dumpy will pardon him. And I'm disappointed it's not Dumpy or Pence. I guess we'll have to see if little Hopey will endanger her entire future or spill the beans.

[Cartmann99]

14 minutes ago, GrumpyGran said:

 I guess we'll have to see if little Hopey will endanger her entire future or spill the beans.

It boggles my mind to think that anybody could be foolish enough to believe that Trump will protect them! 

[GrumpyGran]

1 minute ago, Cartmann99 said:

It boggles my mind to think that anybody could be foolish enough to believe that Trump will protect them! 

Well, she probably knows where the bodies are buried. Perhaps literally. So she is dangerous to him on a level quite different than the others involved. She's near or at the top of the pardon list. If she rolls on him, he will ruthlessly attempt to discredit her. If she's smart she has actual physical evidence. As far as I'm concerned she is his most interesting relationship.

[onekidanddone]

31 minutes ago, GrumpyGran said:

Well, she probably knows where the bodies are buried. Perhaps literally. So she is dangerous to him on a level quite different than the others involved. She's near or at the top of the pardon list. If she rolls on him, he will ruthlessly attempt to discredit her. If she's smart she has actual physical evidence. As far as I'm concerned she is his most interesting relationship.

That whole thing with Hicks is most creepy. He groomed her from the start for this job. 

[GreyhoundFan]

"Robert Mueller just penetrated the White House gates with Michael Flynn’s guilty plea"

Spoiler

Paul Manafort? He “played a very limited role for a very limited amount of time” on the Trump campaign. The charges against him? They have “nothing to do with the president.”

George Papadopoulos? Just a low-level “volunteer” for the campaign who wasn't even worth remembering for both President Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

These were credulity-straining defenses offered by the White House in the face of charges against Manafort and Papadopoulos. But they're not going to work now that former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI.

In Flynn, we have someone who not only actually served in the White House, but someone for whom Trump clearly maintained a huge affinity even after being forced to fire him. Trump has reportedly rued the day that Flynn forced himself out by misrepresenting his contacts with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak — contacts that are at the heart of his guilty plea — and even sought leniency for Flynn from then-FBI Director James B. Comey. While Trump has signaled he might go to war with Manafort, he has handled Flynn with kid gloves from Day One. The polar opposite approaches have been striking.

And now Flynn really comes into play. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III's investigation announced the charges against Flynn on Friday, and Flynn has pleaded guilty, as The Post's Josh Dawsey, Carol D. Leonnig and Devlin Barrett report:

The charge relates to false statements Flynn made to the FBI on January 24 — four days after President Trump was inaugurated — about his conversations with Kislyak during the transition.

Flynn is accused of making false statements to the FBI about asking the ambassador in late December to “refrain from escalating the situation in response to sanctions that the United States had imposed on Russia that same day.” Flynn also told authorities he did not recall the ambassador “subsequently telling him that Russia has chosen to moderate its response to those sanctions as a result of his request,” according to a court filing. That would suggest there was a second, previously unknown contact between Flynn and Kislyak.

Separately, authorities say Flynn lied about asking the ambassador to delay a vote on United Nations Security Council resolutions.

The charges aren't hugely surprising. It was reported last week that Flynn's lawyers had cut off communication with the White House -- possibly signaling a deal with the special counsel. And the Post had reported back in February that Flynn had denied talking about sanctions with Kislyak during an interview with the FBI. The White House had also denied this publicly, but it was soon revealed that Flynn had indeed discussed sanctions with Kislyak.

At the time, though, it wasn't clear that charges would be filed against Flynn, because of how the word “sanctions” could be parsed. Flynn argued at the time that he mentioned the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats but didn't think of them as technically being “sanctions” — despite them being part of the sanctions package President Barack Obama announced in December 2016.

“It wasn’t about sanctions. It was about the 35 guys who were thrown out,” Flynn told the Daily Caller at the time. “So that’s what it turned out to be. It was basically: ‘Look, I know this happened. We’ll review everything.’ I never said anything such as, ‘We’re going to review sanctions,’ or anything like that.”

Mueller's decision to actually charge Flynn, then, is clearly a significant escalation of an investigation that has already led to charges against Manafort and his deputy, Rick Gates, and a similar guilty plea for making false statements by Papadopoulos. The conventional wisdom around the charges against Manafort is that Mueller was trying to use them to get more information about possible collusion with Russia. The charges themselves had nothing to do with the campaign, but instead had to do with Manafort's business dealings.

With Flynn, the charges actually stem from his role on the White House transition team, and they involve a man who was clearly close to Trump — a man to whom the notoriously fickle Trump has for some reason remained loyal even long after Flynn's usefulness to him expired. While Manafort was a significant cog in the Trump machine's effort to obtain the White House, Flynn was a confidant and someone Trump seemed to trust implicitly.

Assuming Mueller is also using these charges to leverage Flynn — and there are always negotiations around guilty pleas like this (in this case it is believed Flynn has negotiated to avoid having his son, Michael Flynn Jr., charged) — he's just gotten much, much closer to the president himself.

The question is what else Flynn has offered apart from his guilty plea.

Even though it's not likely, I hope Flynn the weasel spends some time behind bars. Lock him up.

[Howl]

And all this happened on a Friday.   Lawzamercy. 

[VelociRapture]

2 hours ago, GrumpyGran said:

Makes sense. He's such a arrogant little prick. I can see him ordering around other people waaaay above him in experience and knowledge. So did he lie to Mueller? Dumpy will pardon him. And I'm disappointed it's not Dumpy or Pence. I guess we'll have to see if little Hopey will endanger her entire future or spill the beans.

I hope he thoroughly enjoys Hanukkah with his family this year. I have a feeling he won’t be celebrating with them after this year for a very long time. 

As for pardoning, who has to submit the application for a pardon? Does the person seeking a pardon submit it? I know that the Office of the Pardon Attorney (currently held by 2014 appointee  Larry Kupers) is responsible for reviewing applications and forwarding them to the President. Additionally, I believe there are certain standards a person must meet in order to be approved for a pardon.

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/about-office-0#s3

Unless I’m mistaken (and that’s entirely possible), I don’t think Trump can simply stamp a paper and approve a pardon for anyone. I think it has to go through Kupers first and I don’t think anyone indicted right now would qualify for a pardon since no one has been found guilty by a court - I think you need to be convicted for a Federal crime and have a proven record of good conduct for a few years before you can even apply. 

Am I on the right track here? Or am I completely confused. 

[Bethella]

40 minutes ago, VelociRapture said:

As for pardoning, who has to submit the application for a pardon? Does the person seeking a pardon submit it? I know that the Office of the Pardon Attorney (currently held by 2014 appointee  Larry Kupers) is responsible for reviewing applications and forwarding them to the President. Additionally, I believe there are certain standards a person must meet in order to be approved for a pardon.

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/about-office-0#s3

Unless I’m mistaken (and that’s entirely possible), I don’t think Trump can simply stamp a paper and approve a pardon for anyone. I think it has to go through Kupers first and I don’t think anyone indicted right now would qualify for a pardon since no one has been found guilty by a court - I think you need to be convicted for a Federal crime and have a proven record of good conduct for a few years before you can even apply. 

Am I on the right track here? Or am I completely confused. 

No, I don't think you're on the right track. My understanding is that the OPA review is advisory only. The standards are conventional but not required. Using Trump's pardon of Arpio for an example, he hadn't even been sentenced much less demonstrated "post-conviction conduct, character, and reputation" or "acceptance of responsibility, remorse, and atonement" and I doubt Arpio actually applied for his pardon.

Although OPA reviews all pardon applications, "they create no enforceable rights in persons applying for executive clemency, nor do they restrict the authority granted to the President under Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution." (link)

You also don't have to be convicted first. From the same site "It would be highly unusual, but there have been a few cases where people who had not been charged with a crime were pardoned, including President Gerald Ford's pardon of President Richard Nixon after Watergate and President Jimmy Carter's pardon of Vietnam draft dodgers."

But it does have to be a federal offense. "The President’s authority to grant clemency is limited to federal offenses and offenses prosecuted by the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia in the name of the United States in the D.C. Superior Court.  An offense that violates a state law is not an offense against the United States."

 

[GreyhoundFan]

An good perspective piece: "What’s in Flynn’s plea deal shouldn’t scare the White House. What isn’t should."

Spoiler

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty Friday to one count of making false statements to the FBI and has agreed to cooperate with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. White House lawyer Ty Cobb issued a statement saying that “nothing about the guilty plea or the charge implicates anyone other than Mr. Flynn.”

Cobb is engaging in some legal sleight of hand. The plea deal is most noteworthy not for the charges to which Flynn pleaded guilty, but for the charges it didn’t include. Given Mueller’s long-running investigation into Flynn and the allegations that have besieged him for months, the former Trump aide appeared to be in serious legal jeopardy. That he has managed to escape with barely a slap on the wrist in exchange for his cooperation with law enforcement suggests just how much he could tell authorities about other senior Trump administration and campaign officials.

False statements violations are the bread and butter of criminal investigations, and it’s common for defendants to be charged with them. (Pro tip from a former FBI agent: Guilty people lie.) Relative to most federal crimes, however, a single count of false statements carries a fairly light penalty of five years in prison. That’s why it often forms only one of many charges against a defendant — so that the penalty can be combined with those of other offenses, lengthening the potential sentence the accused could face.

Just based on what’s been publicly reported — without the benefit of knowing what else Mueller’s investigators have turned up — Flynn appeared to be on the hook for a laundry list of potential offenses. For one thing, last March, he retroactively registered as a foreign agent for the government of Turkey, as required by the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA). This is an indication that Mueller could have charged Flynn with knowingly violating FARA up to that point — a charge that the special counsel has brought against former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and that also carries a five-year penalty. Flynn also was alleged to have been plotting in December 2016 to kidnap a Turkish opposition leader on U.S. soil and deliver him to Turkey in exchange for $15 million, a federal felony that could result in up to 20 years in prison. Finally, Flynn could have lied more than once to the FBI agents who interviewed him, offering the potential for additional counts of making false statements.

That means Mueller may have had enough evidence to charge Flynn with enough crimes to send him to prison for 30 years or more. Instead, Flynn has been charged with a single false statement count and — here’s the kicker — his plea agreement states that he will receive no more than six months of prison time for that. That’s an extraordinary sweetheart deal (even for the single charge). And it’s not one any prosecutor, especially one with an investigation as high-profile as Mueller’s, would make lightly. Mueller would offer this kind of a deal only if he could get testimony that helps his case, and if that testimony allows him to go higher up the chain.

There aren’t many targets that are higher than the national security adviser — which leads to President Trump’s inner circle, and Trump himself.

A key piece of the statement of offense detailing the facts underlying Flynn’s charge shows that Flynn was directed to contact the Russians by “members of the Senior Transition Team,” influence their policy positions with regard to Russian sanctions and a United Nations resolution, and report back. (The Washington Post and other news outlets have reported that one such official was Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.) Flynn can identify any transition members who were actively, knowingly and covertly in communication with the Russian government (against the official position of then-President Barack Obama’s administration). Further, if Mueller determines that Trump knew that this was taking place (or was directing any part of it himself), the president’s repeated attempts to get former FBI director James B. Comey to drop the investigation on Flynn could no longer be dismissed as simply a misguided attempt to help a friend. When combined with Comey’s firing, that would look like a clear case of obstruction of justice.

Flynn holds the key, to use a phrase from Watergate, to “who knew what when” — and since knowledge is the hardest element to prove in any crime, Flynn’s firsthand accounts could be solid gold for Mueller.

Some former prosecutors argued Friday that defendants typically plead guilty to every crime they have committed, and that the sparse charge may mean Mueller does not have much more to bring against Flynn. This is unlikely: Mueller would be taking a huge political risk to bring a single charge unrelated to collusion against a top Trump official, giving fodder to those who believe his investigation is a witch hunt. Instead, Mueller could be “saving” charges not covered by the plea to file later if Flynn does not cooperate as agreed. Or Mueller could be testing the waters to see if Trump will pardon Flynn. If the president does, Mueller could defer prosecution of the serious crimes such as kidnapping (which would also be covered under state law) to state attorneys general, since presidential pardons cannot reach state convictions.

So if anyone inside the White House truly believes Cobb’s spin that the charge is no big deal for the Trump administration, they shouldn’t. Flynn was among the president’s top handful of advisers — making him a big fish who wouldn’t ordinarily get off the hook so easily, given his stature and the example he sets for others in the administration. The sight of Flynn walking away with a guarantee he’ll barely serve any prison time should make everyone there — including Trump — very nervous.

Interesting point of view about the possibility of Mueller testing the waters to see if Agent Orange pardons Flynn, then deferring prosecution of serious crimes to the states.

[Destiny]

Mister destiny and I are talking about this at dinner. What if pence goes down? What’s the process to remove him? I am clearly going to be in research mode after I finish my tofu.

[GrumpyGran]

4 hours ago, onekidanddone said:

That whole thing with Hicks is most creepy. He groomed her from the start for this job. 

I agree. It remains to be seen if she has learned anything in the last five years. Creepy how she looks like a young Melania.

[Bethella]

1 minute ago, Destiny said:

Mister destiny and I are talking about this at dinner. What if pence goes down? What’s the process to remove him? I am clearly going to be in research mode after I finish my tofu.

He'd be impeached by the House of Representatives and then tried by the Senate, same as Trump. Assuming they're both convicted, we get President Paul Ryan. 

[VelociRapture]

Just now, Bethella said:

He'd be impeached by the House of Representatives and then tried by the Senate, same as Trump. Assuming they're both convicted, we get President Paul Ryan. 

And if Pence is removed after he’s already become President then we end up with whoever he picked as his VP. So, basically, the US is still pretty screwed regardless. But at least the person in the White House won’t tweet us into World War III... so, slight improvement?

(And thanks for explaining. I was hoping I was on the right track. Would have been nice if I was since that would have provided some road blocks to Trump pardoning anyone he wants. I am curious why he hasn’t pardoned anyone yet - is it because it would make him somehow look worse? Or because he just doesn’t care? Or does he honestly think Mueller can’t touch him or his various spawn?)

[Destiny]

He'd be impeached by the House of Representatives and then tried by the Senate, same as Trump. Assuming they're both convicted, we get President Paul Ryan. 

Yeah. I knew the line of succession and all the rest, I was just drawing a blank on how to boot a VP. I don’t remember it ever coming up beside in my readings of history. These are definitely interesting times. :/

[Bethella]

Just now, VelociRapture said:

And if Pence is removed after he’s already become President then we end up with whoever he picked as his VP. 

That depends on the timeline and assumes he can get someone confirmed as VP by the Senate, otherwise we continue down the line of succession (not many good ones on the list):

• Vice President Mike Pence
• Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
• Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch
• Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
• Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
• Secretary of Defense James Mattis
• Attorney General Jeff Sessions
• Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
• Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
• Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
• Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta
• Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
• Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao (not eligible as she wasn't born in the US)
• Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
• Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
• Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
• Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly (no replacement yet)

Just now, VelociRapture said:

(And thanks for explaining. I was hoping I was on the right track. Would have been nice if I was since that would have provided some road blocks to Trump pardoning anyone he wants. I am curious why he hasn’t pardoned anyone yet - is it because it would make him somehow look worse? Or because he just doesn’t care? Or does he honestly think Mueller can’t touch him or his various spawn?)

It would be nice if there were some road blocks. I'm not sure what's going on in his head. Part of me thinks he's in denial about how serious this is for him and the spawn. But another part think he just doesn't worry about his flunkies and once a spawn is indicted he'll pardon them. Another part thinks he's still going for plausible deniability. If he starts pardoning people, (hopefully) fewer people will believe his "fake news" rants about a witch hunt.

[GrumpyGran]

7 minutes ago, Bethella said:

He'd be impeached by the House of Representatives and then tried by the Senate, same as Trump. Assuming they're both convicted, we get President Paul Ryan. 

Which is why I want this to slow down a bit. Yes, danger is lurking large, but the best track, actually the only one is to let this play out without any of them being removed for a year. Military leaders are moving to refuse dump's orders with regard to launching nukes. Jong-Un knows Trump's a joke. China's riding herd on both of these nut jobs.  Set both Dump and Pence up for impeachment and make sure the people in Lyin's district understand how he threw them under the bus with the tax bill. Then after 2018 elections, reveal, and if we can manage to gain a Senate seat or two, as well as several house seats, impeach! Problem solved.

[Howl]

10 hours ago, Bethella said:

otherwise we continue down the line of succession (not many good ones on the list):

• Vice President Mike Pence
• Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
• Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch
• Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
• Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
• Secretary of Defense James Mattis
• Attorney General Jeff Sessions
• Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
• Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
• Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
• Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta
• Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
• Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao (not eligible as she wasn't born in the US)
• Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
• Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
• Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
• Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly (no replacement yet)

That's a sad rogue's gallery (with few exceptions) of incompetent and unqualified people in the process of destroying Federal agencies, and neatly sums up SCROTUS' approach to governance. 

[VelociRapture]

11 hours ago, Bethella said:

That depends on the timeline and assumes he can get someone confirmed as VP by the Senate, otherwise we continue down the line of succession (not many good ones on the list):

• Vice President Mike Pence
• Speaker of the House Paul Ryan
• Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch
• Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
• Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
• Secretary of Defense James Mattis
• Attorney General Jeff Sessions
• Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
• Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
• Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
• Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta
• Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
• Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao (not eligible as she wasn't born in the US)
• Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
• Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
• Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
• Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly (no replacement yet)

It would be nice if there were some road blocks. I'm not sure what's going on in his head. Part of me thinks he's in denial about how serious this is for him and the spawn. But another part think he just doesn't worry about his flunkies and once a spawn is indicted he'll pardon them. Another part thinks he's still going for plausible deniability. If he starts pardoning people, (hopefully) fewer people will believe his "fake news" rants about a witch hunt.

... can we just skip to Mathis? I feel like he is literally the only adult in this administration. 

(Watch. Just because I said that he’s going to say or do something that proves he’s a spectacular ass now.)

[WiseGirl]

10 hours ago, GrumpyGran said:

Military leaders are moving to refuse dump's orders with regard to launching nukes. 

Is it bad that it's crossed my mind that maybe a military coup d'etat would be a good thing? 

8 minutes ago, VelociRapture said:

Watch. Just because I said that he’s going to say it do something that proves he’s a spectacular ass now.)

OMG thanks for the laugh, I needed that this morning.