Scalia Worries Me

[LadyFriend]

I am not as optimistic. Of the four oldest justices you cite, Scalia ain't going anyplace; Breyer seems healthy and is generally a liberal voter anyhow (so his replacement by Obama would not result in a net gain for the liberal side of SCOTUS); and Ginsburg's replacement won't tip things in favor of the liberals either (though I do expect she will retire during Obama's second term).

Kennedy is nominally a conservative, but not a hidebound one, and he sometimes votes with the liberals. If he retired, then maybe the liberal wing would pick up a seat; but I am not aware of any health or other issues that would cause him to step down any time soon. He's by far not the most intransigent of the conservatives (hello, Scalia and Thomas).

Anyhow, I don't share your certainty that conservative extremism is going the way of the dinosaur and that Democrats are going to hold the White House in 2016. It wasn't all that long ago that the demise of the Democratic Party was being trumpeted. Losing parties drop back, regroup, and come out swinging again from a different angle, supported by different disaffected groups. Presenting themselves afresh, they look like the Attractive New Answer to whatever America's current problem is.

I think it's far more likely that SCOTUS stays like it is, or maybe picks up one liberal vote, during Obama's term, unless people like Alito and Thomas leave the court during his term. And I think the chances of their leaving, barring unforeseen health issues, are slim and none. I also think it's way, way too early to predict an outcome to the 2016 presidential election and its effect on SCOTUS.

I agree with you. Unless one of Scalia/Alito/Roberts/Thomas drops dead (or nearly dead), I fear that SCOTUS will lean conservative for the forseeable future. I agree with you and cannot possibly imagine any of them leaving voluntarily during Obama's term.

Kennedy is really the only one who matters (I refuse to refer to Roberts as a potential swing vote) and I could honestly see Obama replacing him with a "moderate" if he were to leave during his term. Kagan's potential recusals are also a problem for the next few terms at least.

[Sprocket]

I heart this thread. Just sayin'.

[LadyFriend]

I heart this thread. Just sayin'.

Me too...I'm ferociously avoiding studying for my last final and this thread makes me feel just a litttttttttle less guilty about hanging out on FJ all day. :whistle:

Also, I heart your avatar.

[moodygirl86]

Of course murder and homosexuality are not remotely comparable. When people say that, they just mean they personally don't like it. Well who died and made him the Morality Arbiter, that's what I'd like to know.