Morton Summary and Data

[neurogirl]

I'm writing/procrastinating a paper for grad school and inspired by Duggar Data, wanted to have fun with stats. Earlier this year I went through the old Morton blogs and made a family summary. I've been having fun with it and now have predictions for quiver sizes in generation two, expected wedding dates, etc. I know there's already a Morton thread so maybe this should be moved there, but I wanted to share! This summary was mostly dates but thanks to @albireo, includes her brilliant family summaries! She also assisted me with dates. Anything from her is in quotes. Thank you albireo!!!!

“The Morton family hails from Moultrie, Georgia, where they run a sprawling farm/compound named Calathora. They are best known for heavily intermarrying into the Smith family, for their courtship and betrothal practices, and for having an astounding fertility rate in their children and children-in-law. They were involved in Vision Forum, though not “fundie royalty,” and have run a series of blogs for the last thirteen years, though they have abandoned all of them in favor of Facebook and Instagram recently. They homeschool; no major details of what that entails have been shown. They had an early-blog frumper phase, but are primarily modern-modest now, though they also have soft spots for the Victorian and Edwardian eras and will wear pants (especially if their activities call for them). Many play instruments, not sure how well. The entire Morton clan was at one point planning to move to Filadelfia, Paraguay, in the Chaco region, for reasons that are not yet completely known. They made a trip there as a family in October 2015, returning in March 2016. Only Wes and Mike and their families still live there.

Their relationship practices have changed over the years, but at one point consisted of a courtship stage, an engagement stage, a betrothal stage after the engagement stage (which seemed rather like engagement but with an official ceremony/party), and then marriage. They are allowed some touching and emotional involvement at least during engagement, which was the only phase officially announced on the old blog, but first kisses are to be saved for marriage and chaperones are mandatory until then as well. The boys have “the way of a man and his maid” explained to them by their father a few days before the wedding.

They have been seen at several major VF events, including several conferences and Scotty Brown’s children’s weddings, and the San Antonio Independent Christian Film Festival. They are acquainted with the Servens, Thomases, Johnstons, Porters, Turleys, Keens, Plaths, and Botkins. Their close friends include the Smiths (now former friends), Sanderses, Robertses, and Campanas.”

First, some overall statistics and notes about my methods. Jeanine and Mike had an average spacing of 643 days between babies (including marriage to baby 1), with a standard deviation (std. dev) of 180 days. Now, the first baby tends to come a lot faster than subsequent children. Excluding Katie, the Morton Senior spacing was 674 days with std. dev of 151 days. 

So far, the average spacing of marriage to first baby for the Morton second generation is 301 +/- 46 days. That is a lot of honeymoon babies! The average spacing of the 2nd-nth babies is 603 +/- 171 days. Almost double! Hence all family averages will exclude 1stchild spacing in determining quiver size. 

How did I predict quiver size? Fertility “starts” at known or expected day of marriage. Morton daughters are 21.76 years old on average on their wedding day, and are older than their husbands by 2.15 years. Morton sons have wide variability, but are married on average at 21.19 (including John’s suspected wedding date), to women who on average are 0.24 years older, but the variability is large for this data point too. 

I used Jeanine’s later but still possible age at last birth (15718 days, or 43.06 years) to cut off fertility for Morton daughters. (Jeanine conceived again at 46, but suffered a miscarriage) I used about age 40 (or 14,600 days) to cut off fertility for daughters-in-law, but if age 40 was mid-way through pregnancy I extended the fertile period until after that birth. 

For families with more than 2 children (including families with a third on the way with an estimated due date), I used their average and graph-predicted spacing (more on that later) to determine children predicted between marriage and end of fertility. For families with 2 or fewer children, I used the Morton average spacing between subsequent children (and spacing between marriage and first child for those without kids) for the remainder of expected fertility.

Engagement is expected 148 +/- 86 days before the wedding, and while engagements have happened mostly on Saturdays but throughout the week, marriages have occurred exclusively on Saturdays. Back in the betrothal days, betrothal happened shortly after engagement, between one week (Wes and Rachel) and one month (Mike and Kressant) later. No engagement information is available for Katie and Alan, so I just used their betrothal date. 

“Michael Morton Sr (b. 8/25/1952) + Jeanine Dorothy Morton (nee Cox) (b. 7/12/1960) married June 5, 1982. The reigning headship and helpmeet of the Morton clan are highly dominionist. Papa Morton thinks he knows everything, including about childbirth. He runs a construction business, with which his sons are also employed unless specified otherwise. His brother Wesley runs a radio station, or did in 2006. It is believed that she attended college at Alabama. Michael ran for county commissioner in 2006, after deciding that the county government had a, in his words, “fascist flavor,” but lost. They have twelve children, all biological.” Individual family summaries below. If there are any errors or stats questions, please let me know!

Spoiler

1.     Katherine Esther (Katie) Morton (b. 4/04/1983) married Bret Alan Smith Jr (b. 7/31/1983). They were betrothed in late Nov 2005 (between 11/21/05 and 11/28/05 based on pictures from the blogs, so I used 11/25/05), married 4/08/06, and had 8 kids.  

a.    Bret Alan Smith III b. 1/15/2007

b.    Ronald Michael b. 1/09/2008

c.    Catherine Esther b. 5/17/2009

d.    Wallace Johnson b. 8/16/2010

e.    Anna Grace b. 10/25/2011

f.     Elizabeth Rose b. 1/29/2013

g.    Dorothy Jacqueline? b. 10/23/2014

h.    Jackson Lee b. 7/30/2016 

"Katie and Bret Alan “Alan” Smith Jr. were betrothed (in an official “betrothal ceremony”) on November 27, 2005 and married on April 8, 2006. Michael Sr. (or was it Bret?) had decided that just as “only the Father knows the time” of the Second Coming, only he would know the time of the wedding; the guests were only given a date and were told to wait until Michael announced the wedding was to begin. Alan and his party had been camping out across a field on the property and rode in on horses when Michael Sr. decreed it, to the sound of a trumpet (played by Michael Jr., the best man). Both of their outfits were very Renaissance faire. During the ceremony, Katie washed Alan’s feet as a sign of her subservience while a recording of her vows to be his submissive helpmeet played. Michael Sr. discussed how he was proud that Katie had never made a decision before and had to decide on Katie’s behalf that she should marry Alan. Cap’n Bret, Alan’s father (see Smiths) knighted Alan and charged him to provide for and protect Katie. They were not legally married until 18 months after the wedding, in October 2008. She made a video with Cap’n Bret after her first birth, discussing the “sin” of being too loud during childbirth. Alan has always been some sort of a grifter; it was unclear what his job title was during any of the time that the S’Mortons were blogging. He was also called Charlie for some reason on the old Smith blog. Prior to Alan’s arrest, he, Katie, and the kids were living in a house in Ashburn, GA owned by the Cap’n, and also at one point in Griffin, GA. 

In July 2016, he was charged with rape, incest, and child molestation. The charges stem from a three-year period and involve one child according to official reports. A statement from Andrew just after the fact implies that there is, or the Mortons speculate that there is, more than one victim. He pleaded not guilty; he is currently in jail. At some point between then and now, he and Katie divorced. The only people who seem to be defending him are his parents, Bret and Jackie, and some of their younger kids. Bret especially seems keen on vaguebooking Bible verses related to how he thinks everyone should forgive Alan, plus ~psalms~ by Alan about how he’s so ~persecuted~. The Smiths married to Mortons have taken Katie’s side. They pulled no punches in calling Jackie out when she was first defending Alan, and now are not communicating with her at all.

In April 2018, Alan accepted a plea deal in Colquitt County for two counts of child molestation. He is expected to leave jail in 2020, with possible early release for good behavior. This early release is due to his sentence including time already served.

Katie and Alan were divorced some time between July 2016 and April 2017 as a result of Alan’s crimes. She is currently living on the compound, selling some art, and taking care of her children with help from Adeline. Her siblings raised thousands of dollars from their fundie circle for her continuing support.”

Until further notice, Katie’s quiver is complete. She and fuckwad had children an average of 498 +/- 105 days apart. (And remember that excludes 1st children!! Very fast) For Katie and the other families with many children, I also scatter-plotted their children’s birthdates vs birth number and had Excel calculate a best fit line. From the slope of this line, I calculated that if Katie had been married to some Nice Fundie Man and continued to have children, Excel predicts an average linear gap between children of 500. This is so close to 498! As of September 15, 2018, Katie would have had 9 children with another due at the end of April 2019.  She would be expected to have 15 children total.

Spoiler

2.     Michael Beveridge Morton Jr (b. 6/6/1984) + Kressant Amanda Smith (b. 7/15/87)

Engaged 4/23/2006

Betrothed 5/20/2006 

Married 9/02/06

a.    Michael III b. 6/26/2007 

b.    Carlos Phineas b. 7/31/2008 

c.    Jonathan DeWet b. 11/15/2009

d.    Isabella Grace b. 4/24/2011

e.    Byron Zizka b. 10/04/2012

f.     Harold Fletcher b. 6/18/2014

g.    El Roi DeKalb b. 11/6/2016

h.    Varina Brooke b. 8/07/2018

“Mike and Kressant publicly announced their engagement on April 25, 2006, with the betrothal ceremony May 20, 2006, and married on September 2, 2006. The bride, groom, and party were picked up from the Smith house and then driven to the wedding pavilion. A trumpet was blown to announce the wedding this time as well. As part of the betrothal ceremony, Michael paid fifty shekels of silver to Cap’n Bret as the symbolic (?) price of his daughter. They currently live in Paraguay, having moved there in 2016. He always looks extremely serious.”

Mike and Kressant have an average subsequent child spacing of 580 +/- 153 days, and an expected linear gap of 625 days. They are predicted to have 13 (based on graph)-14 (based on current average gap) children total, with #9 expected between March 9-April 23, 2020 depending on the calculator used. 

Spoiler

(I couldn't find a more recent public access photo!)

3.     William Cleveland Morton (b. around 8/27/86) + Lise Marie Kendall (b. 12/18/1981)

Engaged 9/17/2011

Married 12/3/2011

a.    William Cleveland Jr b. 9/26/2012

b.    Kendall Wesley (boy) b. 1/15/2014

c.    Carolina Elise b. 2/4/2016

d.    Joshua Elliot b. 7/2/2018

“Cleve was known as “the hot one” a la John Maxwell early on in FJ. The Kendalls and Mortons met at Blair Brown and Taylor Tsantles (of VF fame)’s wedding, though the Kendalls also seem to have ATI ties. Cleve and Lisë’s engagement was announced on September 17, 2011. Lisë and her younger sister Prentiss married their husbands in a double ceremony on December 3, 2011 and had honeymoon babies within a week of each other. They have broken the usual Morton trend by having all hospital births, possibly influenced by her father who is a doctor. They lived in the (unfinished) barn loft for some time and moved to Texas briefly in 2013, but are now back.”

Lise married at almost 30, so her expected marital fertility is lower than the other daughters-in-law. Their average subsequent child spacing is 702 +/- 206 days, but they do seem to be slowing down. Their expected linear gap is 833 days, which I predict will be closer to their average. Based on that, Lise and Cleve are expected to have their fifth and final child October 12, 2020. Though if their average child spacing remains, they will have two more, and #5 is expected June 2, 2020. 

Spoiler

4.     Wesley Morton (b. 3/10/1988) + Rachel Lea Smith (b. 7/21/1989)

Engaged 05/12/2007

Betrothed 05/19/2007 

Married 09/08/2007

a.    Joseph Wesley Morton Jr b. 05/04/2008 (at 35 weeks) 

b.    William Stone b. 9/09/2009

 (Baby lost 9/02/2010, named Timothy, at 4-6 months)

c.    Ariana Grace b. 3/19/2012

d.    Luke Anthony b. 7/12/2013

e.    Olivia Brooklyn b. 3/08/2015

f.     Levi Andreas Morton b. 3/28/2017

“Wes and Lea’s engagement was announced on May 16, 2007. They had a betrothal ceremony on May 19th, 2007 and married on September 8th, 2007. Rumor has it that he was supposed to marry Kressant, but picked Rachel instead. This wedding was announced with the blowing of a shofar, and Wesley and his cohort rode in on horses. He received a citation in March 2010 for not properly buckling his children’s seatbelts. They live in Paraguay, having relocated there in 2016. Together they run a design and manufacturing business named Mortonbilt, which makes motorcycle sidecars. She has had difficult pregnancies and births. Around Joseph’s birth, the Morton blog covered Rachel’s prayers that Wesley make the right choice in whether to go to the hospital (they went to the hospital). The family owns a kitten.”

Wes and Lea have an average subsequent live-birth spacing of 650 +/- 187 days. As their late miscarriage caused an outlier in child spacing, their linear expected gap is very close to the average, 667 days, even though they too seem to be slowing down. Their expected quiver size is 13, with #7 predicted sometime in January 2019. As of September 15, 2018, I don’t believe we know that she is pregnant, so this baby seems likely to be late.  

Spoiler

5.     Dorothy Jeanine Morton (b. 2/19/1990) + Noah Edwin Sanders (b. 9/30/1988)

Engaged 5/13/2010

Married 7/17/2010

a.    Enoch Timothy b. 8/15/2011

b.    Patrick Oldreive b. 12/09/2013

c.    Edwin Gianavel b. 2/25/2016

d.    Baby girl expected 9/2018

“Their courtship lasted three days if that. He was “released” by his dad to find a wife and asked his sisters, who all recommended Dorothy. When the families were friends but they had apparently never had a conversation. Riiiiight. He came to visit on a Tuesday and they got engaged on Thursday. The engagement was announced on May 13, 2010. They were legally married on June 28, 2010 and had their wedding on July 17, 2010. They shared their first kiss behind a parasol. They lived at one point in a small apartment on the compound, but are now in Coosa County, Alabama, living at the Sanders family farm, Rora Valley Farms, and being its primary overseers. He has a Christian farming blog and series of conferences entitled Redeeming the Dirt, with an associated Instagram, where he has recently started to post more family-related information.”

Dorothy and Noah are due any day, and in my calculations I used September 15, 2018 as her due date so this data will change ever so slightly upon the birth of their daughter. Thus far, they have an average subsequent child spacing of 863 +/- 64 days, with an expected linear gap of 909 days. This would put Dorothy’s quiver at 9-10, with #5 arriving late Jan – mid March 2021. 

Part 2 coming up!

[neurogirl]

Part 2! Once again, many many thanks to @albireo!

Spoiler

6.     Adeline Rebecca Morton (b. 7/15/1991)

“Adeline is the oldest Morton child still at home. She is sickeningly twee, speaking in baby talk almost constantly and giving herself and her siblings and niblings bizarre nicknames that only she uses. Basically she sounds like Jar-Jar Binks. Her writing style is flowery and Regency-esque, but her skills are actually acceptable. She has shown pretty blatant racism on several occasions, along with the rest of her family. She received a citation in March 2009 for not buckling children’s seat belts properly and running a stop sign. She started an Etsy shop entitled Bivins Trading Company, which sold cloisonne fish pendants, but has since shut down. Jeanine called her “Addie May” on the blog once.”

Addie is very overdue to be married, which she probably realizes. Following averages, she “should’ve” been married mid-April 2013 and had 3 kids by now. If Addie is exactly 5 standard deviations late to court, she would be engaged in late May 2019, married in mid October, and  have 9 kids. However, her data can’t really be predicted as she is such an outlier. 

Spoiler

7.     Martha Harriett Morton (b. 1/3/1993) + Tayte Russell Alexander (b. around 10/29/1995)

Engaged 11/16/2013

Married 10/25/2014

a.    Alexandria “Zandry” Lea b. 9/24/2015

“Martha and Tayte were engaged for almost a year, the longest Morton engagement to date, probably because of his age, the fact that his family had only just moved to Georgia, and the fact that he was looking for a place to live. They were married on October 25, 2014. They lived in Ohio at one point, where he worked for his dad doing HVAC. They now live in Indiana. She recently published a book about her childhood, entitled My Eight Brothers, and is working on another one about her sisters. The family owns a dog named Maisy and a still-unnamed cat.”

Martha and Tayte had their first child 334 days after the wedding, very Morton normal. Since then, they have not welcomed any new children. My current predictor has her set to deliver #2 in April of 2019, 4 standard deviations late. If she delivers at that time, she would be expected to have 8 kids total, but I just don’t see that happening. Martha and Tayte’s future quiver is a mystery.  

Spoiler

8.     Andrew Tully Morton (b. 02/01/1995) + Kennedy Marie “Keni” Decker (b. 11/27/1997)

Engaged about 4/25/2015

Married 9/26/2015

a.    Mia Jayden born 7/09/2016

b.    Valerie Maeve b. 8/03/2018

“Andrew was given a house by neighbors in 2013, sparking courtship speculation. He married Kennedy on September 26, 2015. I’m not sure if anyone knows why people call him Tom or Thomas. They live on the compound, in his original house which they had moved there. She and the Campana sisters enjoy messing with FJ, but after she got mad when FJers called her out on letting Mia stand up in a moving car, she locked down her Instagram. She used to run an Etsy shop that sold printed mugs. She is close friends with the Campanas and Robertses. Before marriage, she ran a theology blog called Keni’s Cranium.”

Kennedy was only 17 at marriage. She and Andrew’s first child came only 287 days after marriage, but then the gap to their second child was 755 days. As there is not enough information, I used the Morton total average to predict their a quiver size of 14, and #3’s arrival in late March, 2020.

Spoiler

9. Samuel Q Morton (b. 12/3/1996) + Alyssa Rose Campana (b. 9/13/1994)

Engaged about 10/16/2015

Married 3/26/2016

a.    Norah Rose b. 12/29/2016

b.    Victoria Marie b. 12/31/2017

c.    Baby #3 due 12/8/2018?

“Sam married Alyssa Campana, longtime family friend and Floridian, on March 26, 2016. Her hobbies include protesting abortion clinics with her dad and sisters. She is close friends with Kennedy and the Robertses. It’s unclear where they live, but Victoria was born in Atlanta.”

Wow! Sam and Alyssa are really flying. Their average SUBSEQUENT child spacing (using baby #3’s due date) is 355 +/- 18 days. While I think they will eventually slow down, if they kept up the pace they would easily get to 19 arrows in their quiver, and #4 would arrive November 27, 2019.

Spoiler

10.     John Wright Morton (b. 10/05/1998) + Campbell Conley Roberts (b. 12/05/1996)

Engaged 07/24/2018

Marriage expected 11/03/2018

“John is engaged to family friend Campbell Roberts as of September 15, 2018 and they plan to marry on November 3rd. She first mentioned their courtship on May 22, 2018 on her Instagram. Breaking from Morton tradition, they posted a picture of themselves kissing immediately after the engagement. His hobbies include protesting abortion clinics, harassing people there, and reposting Confederate memes. Her hobbies include posting pictures of herself in the bathroom. She runs a small photography site entitled Campbell Roberts Photography. She previously was in a relationship with one Hugh Morris and before that was getting to know Trace Bates, having appeared on one episode of Bringing Up Bates. She is close friends with Kennedy and the Campanas and is on friendly terms with Carlin and Josie Bates.”

Based on average timing between the engagement and wedding, John and Campbell were expected to marry mid-December of 2018 but the wedding seems to be Nov 03, 2018, still within one standard-deviation of the average. They are expected to have 11 children, with the first arriving August 31, 2019. 

Spoiler

11.     Edwin Ogren Morton (b. 2/19/2001)

12.     Paul Warren Morton (b. 7/25/2003)

"Edwin is not yet of age. He is a licensed driver and he and Dorothy share a birthday." He is expected to be engaged November 26, 2021 with an April 23, 2022 wedding and an expected future quiver size of 12.

"Paul is not yet of age. He earned his learner’s permit shortly after his fifteenth birthday." He is expected to be engaged April 30, 2024 with a mid-late September wedding and an expected future quiver size also of 12.

Whew! In total, Mike and Jeanine are expected to have 133-136 grandchildren, which is just over 11 per child! Watch this space. 

[AliceInFundyland]

Oh this is great! They are a complicated group, and hard to try and figure out retroactively since they’ve been around so long. Well done!

[zee_four]

This is great, thanks! On a side note, stats is where I get my user name.

[lexiloumarie]

Few notes I saw.

Noah and Dorothys apartment wasn't on the Morton compound but rather the Sanders garage/barn. The Sanders family lived there while building their house, as they sold the old one faster than expected. 

 

Martha lives in Georgia again, she's been posting pics with her siblings and family a lot again. Presumably in the trailer they own.

Kennedy's birth year is '95 based on birthday blog posts on her family blog.

Sam and Alyssa live in Kressant and Mike's old apartment in the Morton barn. There are two apartments that are small one bedrooms that Pa Morton built in the "barn" for his sons to use while they build their homes. He believes in early marriage and doesn't seem to want anything to hinder that if possible. 

 

[gustava]

And fundies think education is a waste!  Love what you are doing with yours!!!!

[picklepizzas]

Did we ever find out if Kennedy vbac’ed, like Alyssa? If not I would think that’s going to slow her quiver pace. (I hope she did; the idea of facing a lifetime of non-stop c sections for someone who runs half marathons is depressing).

[lexiloumarie]

3 hours ago, picklepizzas said:

Did we ever find out if Kennedy vbac’ed, like Alyssa? If not I would think that’s going to slow her quiver pace. (I hope she did; the idea of facing a lifetime of non-stop c sections for someone who runs half marathons is depressing).

No, they didn't say. The pictures showed Andrew in the waiting room for a bit but didn't say anything else. Does anyone remember, was it Alyssa or Kennedy who had the two days of labor for first child?

[front hugs > duggs]

On 9/15/2018 at 9:06 PM, neurogirl said:

They were not legally married until 18 months after the wedding, in October 2008.

Any idea why this was? They had a child before that - but I'm guessing since they were religiously wed it wasn't out of wedlock?

[neurogirl]

@albireo might have a better answer for you but yeah the Pearl's daughter also didn't get legally married until much later. Something about not sharing lawful marriage under the gub'ment that allows same-sex marriage. And then...they changed their minds for benefits or something? 

[Palimpsest]

58 minutes ago, neurogirl said:

@albireo might have a better answer for you but yeah the Pearl's daughter also didn't get legally married until much later. Something about not sharing lawful marriage under the gub'ment that allows same-sex marriage. And then...they changed their minds for benefits or something? 

@albireo should confirm but (if my memory is correct) Katie and Alan originally had a covenant marriage and it was definitely influenced by Pearl teachings.  Covenant marriages  are only legal in Arizona, Arkansas, and Louisiana, but who cares if you live in Georgia (explained below.) The overblown description of K and A's wedding was quite as barfable as Michael's wordy and gushing description of Shoshanna Pearl's fake nuptials.

Yes, in the gospel according to Pearl it has to do with the ebil gub'mint getting involved in God's business and allowing same sex marriage.   Michael Pearl recommends a legal document is drawn up by the couple, in lieu of a licence and state approved wedding, in states that don't legally recognise covenant marriage.  

Explained by the horse's arse himself:   https://nogreaterjoy.org/2015/10/15/excerpt-bible-divorce-remarriage/

[albireo]

@neurogirl @Palimpsest I just went back through the blog and Google and couldn't find anything, so I must have read it on FJ somewhere. Regardless, the date I mentioned doesn't match up with the length of time since the wedding I said it was, so I must have made a typo. I believe what Katie and Alan did was inspired by the Pearls, and that none of the other couples had late legal marriages.

I agree that the description of Katie and Alan's wedding was barfable...and wow, so rambling, too.

[hoipolloi]

1 hour ago, neurogirl said:

@albireo might have a better answer for you but yeah the Pearl's daughter also didn't get legally married until much later. Something about not sharing lawful marriage under the gub'ment that allows same-sex marriage. And then...they changed their minds for benefits or something? 

Shoshanna tried to laugh it off on Instagram when she announced her (re)marriage to James Easling last summer, but it sounds like their accountant & attorney had twin heart attacks when they found out or realized that James & Shoshanna did not have a legal marriage:

 

[ophelia]

Thank you so much! I have to admit that I've always been a little obsessed with the Morton's and this summary is pure gold for me!