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I'm writing/procrastinating a paper for grad school and inspired by Duggar Data, wanted to have fun with stats. Earlier this year I went through the old Morton blogs and made a family summary. I've been having fun with it and now have predictions for quiver sizes in generation two, expected wedding dates, etc. I know there's already a Morton thread so maybe this should be moved there, but I wanted to share! This summary was mostly dates but thanks to @albireo, includes her brilliant family summaries! She also assisted me with dates. Anything from her is in quotes. Thank you albireo!!!! “The Morton family hails from Moultrie, Georgia, where they run a sprawling farm/compound named Calathora. They are best known for heavily intermarrying into the Smith family, for their courtship and betrothal practices, and for having an astounding fertility rate in their children and children-in-law. They were involved in Vision Forum, though not “fundie royalty,” and have run a series of blogs for the last thirteen years, though they have abandoned all of them in favor of Facebook and Instagram recently. They homeschool; no major details of what that entails have been shown. They had an early-blog frumper phase, but are primarily modern-modest now, though they also have soft spots for the Victorian and Edwardian eras and will wear pants (especially if their activities call for them). Many play instruments, not sure how well. The entire Morton clan was at one point planning to move to Filadelfia, Paraguay, in the Chaco region, for reasons that are not yet completely known. They made a trip there as a family in October 2015, returning in March 2016. Only Wes and Mike and their families still live there. Their relationship practices have changed over the years, but at one point consisted of a courtship stage, an engagement stage, a betrothal stage after the engagement stage (which seemed rather like engagement but with an official ceremony/party), and then marriage. They are allowed some touching and emotional involvement at least during engagement, which was the only phase officially announced on the old blog, but first kisses are to be saved for marriage and chaperones are mandatory until then as well. The boys have “the way of a man and his maid” explained to them by their father a few days before the wedding. They have been seen at several major VF events, including several conferences and Scotty Brown’s children’s weddings, and the San Antonio Independent Christian Film Festival. They are acquainted with the Servens, Thomases, Johnstons, Porters, Turleys, Keens, Plaths, and Botkins. Their close friends include the Smiths (now former friends), Sanderses, Robertses, and Campanas.” First, some overall statistics and notes about my methods. Jeanine and Mike had an average spacing of 643 days between babies (including marriage to baby 1), with a standard deviation (std. dev) of 180 days. Now, the first baby tends to come a lot faster than subsequent children. Excluding Katie, the Morton Senior spacing was 674 days with std. dev of 151 days. So far, the average spacing of marriage to first baby for the Morton second generation is 301 +/- 46 days. That is a lot of honeymoon babies! The average spacing of the 2nd-nth babies is 603 +/- 171 days. Almost double! Hence all family averages will exclude 1stchild spacing in determining quiver size. How did I predict quiver size? Fertility “starts” at known or expected day of marriage. Morton daughters are 21.76 years old on average on their wedding day, and are older than their husbands by 2.15 years. Morton sons have wide variability, but are married on average at 21.19 (including John’s suspected wedding date), to women who on average are 0.24 years older, but the variability is large for this data point too. I used Jeanine’s later but still possible age at last birth (15718 days, or 43.06 years) to cut off fertility for Morton daughters. (Jeanine conceived again at 46, but suffered a miscarriage) I used about age 40 (or 14,600 days) to cut off fertility for daughters-in-law, but if age 40 was mid-way through pregnancy I extended the fertile period until after that birth. For families with more than 2 children (including families with a third on the way with an estimated due date), I used their average and graph-predicted spacing (more on that later) to determine children predicted between marriage and end of fertility. For families with 2 or fewer children, I used the Morton average spacing between subsequent children (and spacing between marriage and first child for those without kids) for the remainder of expected fertility. Engagement is expected 148 +/- 86 days before the wedding, and while engagements have happened mostly on Saturdays but throughout the week, marriages have occurred exclusively on Saturdays. Back in the betrothal days, betrothal happened shortly after engagement, between one week (Wes and Rachel) and one month (Mike and Kressant) later. No engagement information is available for Katie and Alan, so I just used their betrothal date. “Michael Morton Sr (b. 8/25/1952) + Jeanine Dorothy Morton (nee Cox) (b. 7/12/1960) married June 5, 1982. The reigning headship and helpmeet of the Morton clan are highly dominionist. Papa Morton thinks he knows everything, including about childbirth. He runs a construction business, with which his sons are also employed unless specified otherwise. His brother Wesley runs a radio station, or did in 2006. It is believed that she attended college at Alabama. Michael ran for county commissioner in 2006, after deciding that the county government had a, in his words, “fascist flavor,” but lost. They have twelve children, all biological.” Individual family summaries below. If there are any errors or stats questions, please let me know! Part 2 coming up!
...With an explosion of pictures on Jeanine's account (which is public)! It looks like the main clan is back - no sign of Wesley's family, so they may have stayed in Paraguay. https://www.instagram.com/michaels_jeanine/?hl=en They arrived just in time for the birth of Darthy's #3 son, Edwin. I wonder if they're back for good or just for the wedding?
FundieFarmer posted a topic in S'Mortons (Smiths & Mortons) and SandersI have no idea what's going on but I walked in to a rousing cat fight complete with screen caps. If you don't know what's happening either, you should go check it out. Carrying on from here!
I tried using the search function to work out the Morton/Smith/Wissman family tree, but couldn't find anything that told me who was related/married to who. Are Lise, Prentiss, Rachel and Kressant sisters? Who is Adeline? Does anyone else find them hard to keep track of!?
picklepizzas posted a topic in Reproductive IssuesKennedy Morton just had her first baby...after 62 hours of labor (followed of course by medical intervention). What is going on with this crazy pattern for first time births with the fundies lately? When I read about Jill's labor I was shocked; I was dumbfounded to see Jessa follow in her footsteps a few months later. And now this?! (Wasnt Katie Mortons first labor also ridiculously long?) so to those who have had babies...is this in any way normal? Or safe? I'm having a hard time believing any midwife or Doctor would condone two-day-plus labors!