Thoughts on Iran nuclear deal?

[2xx1xy1JD]

I won't pretend to understand all of the technical aspects, and do have some concerns about whether the inspections will be effective.

I have some small bit of cautious optimism, though, because I hope that this can affect the culture and politics within Iran. Iran is not an Arab state, and its internal politics are different. The aging theocrats at the top are still pretty evil - funding terrorism, promoting hatred, religious fanatics, oppressing women and using the threat of jail and torture against its own citizens. They are in trouble, though, because the population in Iran is really, really young. Generally speaking, the youth and the middle class in Tehran tend to be more moderate, pro-Western and opposed to the power of the Ayatollahs. Only a tiny percentage of Iranians are old enough to remeber the despotism of the Shah. Most were born after the revolution, and have known only the oppression of the current regime.

http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/age_structure.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nazila-fa ... 64786.html

My hope, then, is that this deal provides some time for this group to get stronger. Lifting sanctions gives the middle class some incentive to want more trade and engagement with the West. Iran starts to rely less on oil exports. The prospect of sanctions being imposed again will seem worse than the prospect of giving up nukes. The Reformers will get more power.

I hope things turn out this way, at least, because the alternatives are damn scary.

[OkToBeTakei]

The reports here are obviously referencing the U.S. Heavily, but with a strong reaction from Israel which is doing nothing to help the rising tide of anti- Israeli politicking of recent.

On paper always looks attractive. Time will tell.

[Anny Nym]

It´s a good thing the Iran will now get rid of it´s international Pariah status.

Time will tell, of course. Yes.

Apart from that, the reports here are mostly austrian diplomacy & business-related. And in autumn, our foreign minister and our president will travel to Teheran to deepen relations with Iran. That was a headline this morning.

[sockinshoe]

I happen to know someone who was at the negotiations (in a lowly role but still) and they told me that the goal was to get inspectors into Iran. Sure, we probably shouldn't trust the Ayatollah as far as we can throw him, but we can't know what's actually going on unless we can inspect the facilities.

Netanyahu is (and I say this as a Jewish person) a warmonger who is happiest when he's firing projectiles. He is no true friend to his own people and he's no friend to me. He's been predicting that Iran is 6months from a bomb for over 20 years. His antics just encourage warhawks and the military industrial complex to fearmonger, in the hopes that war will make them rich.

[Vivi_music]

I just hope that people will stop seeing Iran as the incarnation of the devil on earth. Like 2xx1xy1JD said, the country is changing, the population is young, starting to be more and more educated about the rest of the world. Of course, the leaders are still religious fanatics and the country in general needs LOTS of reforms. But overall, ostracizing a whole population won't help to Iran change it's relation with the world.

I'm not very proud of Canada's government though. :? I understand that we are not a super power so Canada can't really claim to be a big leader on the international scene. Nonetheless, Harper's government just acts like a sheep, hanging like a fool, on every word Netanyahu says. You can still support Israel without having to agree with every statement made my the israeli PM. I've said it before and will say it again: disagreeing with the politics of Israel doesn't make you antisemitic. But it seems the Conservative parties doesn't understand that.

/Sorry, this wasn't meant to be a rant against the Canadian government/Got carried away.

[guitar_villain]

There's someinteresting analysis here from a non-proliferation expert here- he thinks it's as good as it gets. (Not broken, commercial news site) His comments about how the entire deal is structured to allow various people to blather on while doing nothing and still have everything work are fascinating- "Lotta profiles of courage on this deal." :lol:

From the science side, we're still kind of lucky it's so hard to separate U235 from U238- the massive number of centrifuges needed make verification possible. I have to wonder though long term- waaay back in grad school I knew a guy who worked as a tech up at Lawrence Livermore on a couple of the big lasers. They were working on a *much* faster version, exploiting the very small difference between the ionization energies of the isotopes. Tune the laser fine enough, photoionize the U235 and leave the 238, collect the U235 ions at 90%+ efficiency. The US cancelled it's program under odd circumstances, Iran claims to have dismantled their version. Not sure I believe either account.

[2xx1xy1JD]

I just hope that people will stop seeing Iran as the incarnation of the devil on earth. Like 2xx1xy1JD said, the country is changing, the population is young, starting to be more and more educated about the rest of the world. Of course, the leaders are still religious fanatics and the country in general needs LOTS of reforms. But overall, ostracizing a whole population won't help to Iran change it's relation with the world.

I'm not very proud of Canada's government though. :? I understand that we are not a super power so Canada can't really claim to be a big leader on the international scene. Nonetheless, Harper's government just acts like a sheep, hanging like a fool, on every word Netanyahu says. You can still support Israel without having to agree with every statement made my the israeli PM. I've said it before and will say it again: disagreeing with the politics of Israel doesn't make you antisemitic. But it seems the Conservative parties doesn't understand that.

/Sorry, this wasn't meant to be a rant against the Canadian government/Got carried away.

Harper's hardly a sheep. If anything, he's gotten flack for being too independent and too committed to certain values, which means that Canada isn't always in step with the United States or stuck in neutral on every issue.

His views on Israel were the same when Olmert was in power.

He's not just this way on Israel. Canada has been more critical of Russia than the US has been, esp. on its occupation of Crimea and its suppression of gay rights.

[2xx1xy1JD]

I heard a talk yesterday which made me a bit more pessimistic.

Iran held an Al Quds Day rally, just a week ago. You'd think that a country trying to negotiate an end to sanctions and join the international community might avoid government-supported public rallies with cries of "Death to Israel" and some nasty anti-American comments, but apparently not. You might also think that Obama would say something like "hey, if you guys actually want a deal, you might try acting less evil and not threatening death to us and our allies right before signing the deal." But again, apparently not.

[Anny Nym]

I don´t think the Al Quds Day rally has any kind of weight in a historic negotian like the JCPOA.

Al Quds Day rallies are held all over the world since over 30 years now, that has nothing to do with the deal. In fact, alot of rallies for alot of causes are held on any day of the year.

Nobody would talk to nobody if we would constantly stay put on every naval - gazing and no political leader would be able to move forward.

And this couldn´t be the last conclusion of wisdom either, no?

As for the anti-american comments... well, I am pretty sure it wasn´t the first time Obama did hear one... if the USA wouldn´t stop talking to every country where anyone ever displays usa-critical/anti-american/whatever category it is comments, they would need to lock themseves into Rapunzel´s tower and shut the blinds.

Also we shouldn´t forget that this was a agreement between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. That means the USA, United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, Germany /the EU - and not the USA only.

The parties of USA, the EU and Russia managed to find a clear line on this one - which is actually quite impressive, considering the recent deep friction between this parties.

I don´t think Obama wanted to jeopardize this for something like a Al Quds day and some anti-american cardbord signs.

[2xx1xy1JD]

I don´t think the Al Quds Day rally has any kind of weight in a historic negotian like the JCPOA.

Al Quds Day rallies are held all over the world since over 30 years now, that has nothing to do with the deal. In fact, alot of rallies for alot of causes are held on any day of the year.

Nobody would talk to nobody if we would constantly stay put on every naval - gazing and no political leader would be able to move forward.

And this couldn´t be the last conclusion of wisdom either, no?

As for the anti-american comments... well, I am pretty sure it wasn´t the first time Obama did hear one... if the USA wouldn´t stop talking to every country where anyone ever displays usa-critical/anti-american/whatever category it is comments, they would need to lock themseves into Rapunzel´s tower and shut the blinds.

Also we shouldn´t forget that this was a agreement between Iran and the P5+1 and the EU. That means the USA, United Kingdom, Russia, China, France, Germany /the EU - and not the USA only.

The parties of USA, the EU and Russia managed to find a clear line on this one - which is actually quite impressive, considering the recent deep friction between this parties.

I don´t think Obama wanted to jeopardize this for something like a Al Quds day and some anti-american cardbord signs.

While pro-Palestinian rallies in general are held in lots of different places at lots of different times, Al Quds Day originated in Iran as the idea of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. The rally isn't something done by some individuals that the state tolerates in the name of free speech.

Now, there is some debate about whether the rally represented a desperate and determined stand by the government hardliners who are opposed to the deal, or whether it represents those who are signing onto the deal too. There's no question that it represents the Iranian regime, though - the only question is which part.

NOT screaming for death wouldn't take a lot of effort and wouldn't cost a thing, and it would have helped to smooth the path for a deal and help it through the US Congress.

[Anny Nym]

Or maybe neither one. Neither a desperate stand by government hardliners nor the ones who signed the deal?

In Iran, the rally is organized by the regime so people are attending it probably for a myriad of reasons. I am quite sure some have to attend wether they want or not, that is always the case with government- organized rallies. Was the case in the DDR, is the case in Iran and just think about what shows North Korea is pulling off frequently.

The negotiators know that too and that is why I don´t think the Al Quds Day rallies had any kind of significance on the deal.

In other countries the numbers were way more down. In Vienna for instance, where the negotiations took place, it were only a few hundred people, so....

Also, the ones negotiating the deal aren´t in control about what anyone screams about in the streets.

[2xx1xy1JD]

Well, my whole point is that it's the regime that organizes the rally in Tehran.

If it was important to them to reassure the US and others that this is the start of better times, that the deal won't threaten anyone's security and that Iran wants to be a functional part of the international community, they would make sure that the rally wasn't calling for death to anyone.

It wasn't important to the regime to do that. A few days before the deal, when they knew what the concerns were, they were still chanting for death.

To me, this says a couple of things:

1. The evil old regime still wants to show that it can be evil and badass, and that it hasn't capitulated to the world and given up its "values".

2. They know that there is no risk in doing this, and that nobody is going to object to these actions. They see Obama as weak, esp. on human rights and terrorism.

[Anny Nym]

Nobody of the parties the Iran was negotiating with, has a vest white enough to postphone a deal of this importance because of chants on a rally.

Obama isn´t exactly a shining knight of holding up human rights and fighting terrorism either, so I dont think @2. is the message that comes across to the international community, 2xx1xy1JD.

[Mama Mia]

I haven't really followed this topic, but it seems, to me, that a bunch of protests limited to a particular day, and macho posturing would probably be very beneficial to Iran in tamping down any actual protests within the country, from people who are against this deal. I'm sure there must be a fair number of people internally who object. Getting to yell it for a day gives them the chance to feel like they are heard, without actually impacting anything.

It's my impression that this is a common maneuver universally, whether it's parents dealing with a frustrated toddler or governments dealing with internal strife. Give the angry subject a chance to vent , and then move along with whatever was the original plan.