What happens in the future?

[FlorenceHamilton]

I am thinking today about the fundamentalist agenda. Produce as many chidren as possible. Keep them at home with only a very limited amount of information tailored to fill their heads ONLY with their ideas. Limit education to biblically consistent education only. Make absolutely certain that the females are unprepared to do anything at all but serve there fathers or their spouses. Limit the potiential of sons to practical jobs only, like fixing stuff, bulding stuff no more complex than a house, providing a mundane service, and allowing a few to be trained in legal matters.

The secular agenda is different. It emphasizes acheiving ones own goals. Education, critical thinking and the ability to see past the surface of everything we experience are encouraged. Children are brought into the wolrd with thought and care. People may choose to not reproduce at all. Some people reproduce, but choose to allow the child to be raised by a family who wants to raise that child. We may choose to bear/raise many children, few children or only one child. They choice os made based upon the number of children we feel equipped to give our energies to prepare them for real life.

In two generations at the most, we will have large numbers of ignorant people. These people will have limited skill to do anything but follow directions. The children of the seculars will be much smaller in number. However, they will have all the knowledge and skills.

How do you think that sort of dynamic would play out?

[Knight of Ni]

There will be no shortage of unskilled laborers.

[chiccy]

I am not convinced that the fundie population will grow exponentially indefinitely. Maybe that's wishful thinking...but there's so much wrong with it that I think people leave it or dilute it in significant enough quantities to keep it from dominating the world. Even now, a lot of kids leave the movement. I guess if even 2 kids per family choose to stay, there will still be exponential growth...but there is some possibility that each generation (in at least some cases) will be "liter" than the previous, in which case it will take only a couple generations to quash the compulsion to have scads of kids.

I could be wrong. I hope I'm not. If fundies do end up dominating, our country is going to have a real problem staying competitive in the global marketplace--and that's hardly the worst of it.

[ShadowyOne]

I am thinking today about the fundamentalist agenda. Produce as many chidren as possible. Keep them at home with only a very limited amount of information tailored to fill their heads ONLY with their ideas. Limit education to biblically consistent education only. Make absolutely certain that the females are unprepared to do anything at all but serve there fathers or their spouses. Limit the potiential of sons to practical jobs only, like fixing stuff, bulding stuff no more complex than a house, providing a mundane service, and allowing a few to be trained in legal matters.

The secular agenda is different. It emphasizes acheiving ones own goals. Education, critical thinking and the ability to see past the surface of everything we experience are encouraged. Children are brought into the wolrd with thought and care. People may choose to not reproduce at all. Some people reproduce, but choose to allow the child to be raised by a family who wants to raise that child. We may choose to bear/raise many children, few children or only one child. They choice os made based upon the number of children we feel equipped to give our energies to prepare them for real life.

In two generations at the most, we will have large numbers of ignorant people. These people will have limited skill to do anything but follow directions. The children of the seculars will be much smaller in number. However, they will have all the knowledge and skills.

How do you think that sort of dynamic would play out?

I think this is the premise of the movie "Idiocracy." ;)

[Renting with Raggles]

I am not convinced that the fundie population will grow exponentially indefinitely. Maybe that's wishful thinking...but there's so much wrong with it that I think people leave it or dilute it in significant enough quantities to keep it from dominating the world.

The problem is, the 'dilution' of fundamentalism just means shucking off the stupid minutiae of Gothard-living. You can see this happen rather quickly with the Duggars in their hothouse of reality tv - frumper discarded, then ankle length skirts, TV/ movies are brought in... I bet Smuggar's daughters will eventually wear trousers and normal hairstyles. The really dangerous parts of the ideology (denying science, war on women) remain - but they're disguised in secular clothing and most people don't spot 'crazy fundie hypocrites' when they're dressed up like the Santorum family. Those numbers of fundi-lites are a problem as they vote against marraige equality, women's reproductive health and science education.

On the flip side, the ones who are actually clever, and will contribute the most to society, usually leave fundamentalism all together - see people like Libby at Love, Joy, Feminism.

[chiccy]

The problem is, the 'dilution' of fundamentalism just means shucking off the stupid minutiae of Gothard-living. You can see this happen rather quickly with the Duggars in their hothouse of reality tv - frumper discarded, then ankle length skirts, TV/ movies are brought in... I bet Smuggar's daughters will eventually wear trousers and normal hairstyles.

But the thing is, the "have tons of kids" mandate no longer applies unless you're an extreme fundie. So, while dilution may not get rid of all of their dangerous ideology, it will dramatically slow down its spread. The big worry with Quiverfull is that the huge growth of their population represents a threat in numbers.

[gardenvarietycitizen]

But the thing is, the "have tons of kids" mandate no longer applies unless you're an extreme fundie. So, while dilution may not get rid of all of their dangerous ideology, it will dramatically slow down its spread. The big worry with Quiverfull is that the huge growth of their population represents a threat in numbers.

Yeah. I think this is true of various of the "new, extreme" but IMHO unsustainable lifestyles that shun secular education. We see it with the quiverfull fundie Christians and I think some of the more extreme forms of the kollel lifestyle over the Jewish side will be similarly endangered.

So many people joined those lifestyles as adults - some were fully secular and then "born again" or gone BT, some were already religious but just not to quite those extremes, and moved rightward. Some are earning money from their own secular educations to support their kids, some of them gave up their employment too when they went religious (as the first generation!) and are getting support from parents/in-laws.

But then they have 9+ kids, and tell all of them that they shouldn't do college, or with the kollel thing that they shouldn't work, period (it's okay to work, but not "preferred"). So the next generation lives off mom and dad's funding, but what happens when THEY have kids?

It's just not sustainable in the modern first world. Complaints are coming out all over from more reasonable people who still have one foot in, and quiverfull thing is slightly younger and not as self-aware yet maybe but we're already seeing unmarried off daughters (because the ideal husbands can't support 'em!), kids who seem to not be working at anything other than charity jobs granted by Dad, etc.

Heck, even the Amish are running into problems now that farmland is less available and factory work is less prevalent in a lot of places they live (it's being offshored like anything else).

It's 2012. People can't expect that the recipe for good solid employment (or the costs of living) that applied in the 1890s or the 1930s are going to work today, and even if they did, you won't be mainstream, you will seriously cut yourself off from the mainstream in ways it's hard to recover from (though I'm sure that's part of the appeal for some of the parents). I mean, even the Amish were not so different from mainstream secular rural people back in 1930, even if they dressed weird.

[AnnieC 305]

I am thinking today about the fundamentalist agenda. Produce as many chidren as possible. Keep them at home with only a very limited amount of information tailored to fill their heads ONLY with their ideas. Limit education to biblically consistent education only. Make absolutely certain that the females are unprepared to do anything at all but serve there fathers or their spouses. Limit the potiential of sons to practical jobs only, like fixing stuff, bulding stuff no more complex than a house, providing a mundane service, and allowing a few to be trained in legal matters.

The secular agenda is different. It emphasizes acheiving ones own goals. Education, critical thinking and the ability to see past the surface of everything we experience are encouraged. Children are brought into the wolrd with thought and care. People may choose to not reproduce at all. Some people reproduce, but choose to allow the child to be raised by a family who wants to raise that child. We may choose to bear/raise many children, few children or only one child. They choice os made based upon the number of children we feel equipped to give our energies to prepare them for real life.

In two generations at the most, we will have large numbers of ignorant people. These people will have limited skill to do anything but follow directions. The children of the seculars will be much smaller in number. However, they will have all the knowledge and skills.

How do you think that sort of dynamic would play out?

The problem is that more and more of the secular, at least the ones that I know, are looking at the way the election is going and planning to bug out. Think about it:

- Their misogynistic laws that are practically modeled on Romania.

- Their determination to eliminate health care.*

- Their desire to end every government service outside of the military.**

- Their constant denigration of education and the educated

- Their attacks on the public university system, making it currently impractical and threatening to close it all together.

- Their constant attacks on our values.

- Their encouragement of bullying in the schools and their ongoing efforts to convert our children.

Then take into consideration that having a massive, permanent, uneducated underclass is going to be a constant drag on our economy and that knowledge and skills are portable and, well, why stay? Why not go someplace where health care is available, the economy is much more robust, the society shares our values and isn't going after our children, education is available and good, and our knowledge and skills will be values?

As soon as my husband finishes his degree we plan to adopt. And then move to Canada. :flags-canada: Most of my friends are planning on moving to Canada or the UK in the next 3-5 years. We are not staying. And if wouldn't surprise me if a *lot* of people moved as well.

So what you're going to end up with is a small, educated, conservative, highly wealthy upper class and a massive, uneducated underclass controlled from the pulpit in a country that highly values structure and control. All you need is one ginned-up war and a draft and you have the recipe for a variant of The Hunger Games. Trapped in your "district" by poverty if not by law, compelled to manual labor to barely avoid starvation, the infrastructure crumbling around you and no help anywhere. Your only hope is to die and savor the afterlife. But instead of 24 children ages 12-18 battling it out for the TV screens every year it will be everyone, or at least every boy, ages 18-25 going off to the draft. It will be the only way to keep control of the masses.

------

* The Supreme Court recently heard arguments that compelling participation in a government mandated health insurance program may be unconstitutional. If they invalidate that then they invalidate Medicare as it is also a mandatory buy-in. Without Medicare every hospital and most doctors in this country would have to close their doors. As it stands, thanks to the new Medicare rules going into effect most hospitals might not last 10 years.

** By eliminating debt and cutting taxes on the wealthy but maintaining the current defense budget the Ryan budget proposal would result in cutting every government agency, including the FAA, FBI, FDA, food stamps program, veterans programs, and pretty much everything else by 91% (one [link=http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-worst-part-of-paul-ryans-budget/254845/]source[/link] of many)

[bananacat]

Fundie movements have always had a very high turnover rate. I don't believe that they will be successful in breeding more fundies, because historically they have always had to rely more heavily on adult converts. I would expect less than half of fundie-born kids to continue with any type of fundie lifestyle as an adult, and even then it will usually be less extreme than their parents' version. It's not a sustainable lifestyle and a small town economy can't really sustain that many uneducated men attempting to be entrepreneurs. How many towing companies and used car lots can be successful in one small town? The planned solution is for men to work for their brothers, but that will lead to resentment and infighting, especially after the original Patriarch dies. Some day Jackson Duggar will be working for minimum wage as an employee for John-David and he'll be pissed that he can't buy food for his 6 kids, and he'll want to quit but he'll soon realize that he can't find any other job in that town with his crappy excuse for an education. And that's the day he'll register his kids for the local public school, or at least try to get scholarships for a local Christian private school. For generations, most kids could expect to have a better life than their parents, and I think that that's what most parents want for their kids. The fundies have gone in the reverse direction and I just don't see them sticking to it long-term, especially after Daddy is no longer around to force them into it.

[hoipolloi]

Fundie Christian & probably mainline Christian churches have been losing their much of their next generation of members, according to a recent study sponsored by the Barna Group, which focuses on religious, especially Christian, issues & society: http://www.barna.org/teens-next-gen-art ... h-dropouts:

Overall, about three out of ten young people who grow up with a Christian background stay faithful to church and to faith throughout their transitions from the teen years through their twenties.

Even fundies themselves recognize this problem -- e.g., Geoff Botkin's bullshit 200-year plan or Michael Pearl's "jumping ship" essays -- but haven't figured out that force-feeding religion while preventing kids from learning about anything or anyone else outside their cult church will only drive them away faster.

[FlorenceHamilton]

This morning, I was thinking about what happens if they manage to disrupt a generation with their craziness. It seems to me that even if the "win", they still lose. I do think that a combination of fundamentalsm and a host of other things right wing have severely undermined the quality of the education this generation is receiving. We are going to have a large population of poorly educated young adults who lack the ability to think. Some of them may be controlled by their religious doctrine. Others will have simply fallen through the cracks.

The smaller group will be those who have been better educated. Some of those will be educated because they come from the "privilged" class. We have always had these people. Others will be children who were raised in smaller families that got lots of individual attention and were taught to think. These people have a huge advantage over the masses.

It makes me sad to think that we will have to go through some radical times before the pendulum swings back. I do think that moderation will eventually return. We may not be alive to see it.

[chiccy]

Yeah. I think this is true of various of the "new, extreme" but IMHO unsustainable lifestyles that shun secular education. We see it with the quiverfull fundie Christians and I think some of the more extreme forms of the kollel lifestyle over the Jewish side will be similarly endangered.

So many people joined those lifestyles as adults - some were fully secular and then "born again" or gone BT, some were already religious but just not to quite those extremes, and moved rightward. Some are earning money from their own secular educations to support their kids, some of them gave up their employment too when they went religious (as the first generation!) and are getting support from parents/in-laws.

But then they have 9+ kids, and tell all of them that they shouldn't do college, or with the kollel thing that they shouldn't work, period (it's okay to work, but not "preferred"). So the next generation lives off mom and dad's funding, but what happens when THEY have kids?

It's just not sustainable in the modern first world. Complaints are coming out all over from more reasonable people who still have one foot in, and quiverfull thing is slightly younger and not as self-aware yet maybe but we're already seeing unmarried off daughters (because the ideal husbands can't support 'em!), kids who seem to not be working at anything other than charity jobs granted by Dad, etc.

Heck, even the Amish are running into problems now that farmland is less available and factory work is less prevalent in a lot of places they live (it's being offshored like anything else).

It's 2012. People can't expect that the recipe for good solid employment (or the costs of living) that applied in the 1890s or the 1930s are going to work today, and even if they did, you won't be mainstream, you will seriously cut yourself off from the mainstream in ways it's hard to recover from (though I'm sure that's part of the appeal for some of the parents). I mean, even the Amish were not so different from mainstream secular rural people back in 1930, even if they dressed weird.

In many kollel families, the wife is the main breadwinner. That's why girls are given more secular education than boys in many branches of ultra-Orthodoxy; it's because they'll be expected to do the earning (and raise kids!) while their husbands study Torah. As can be imagined, it is enormously stressful for the women. So, while it's slightly more sustainable than living off one's parents, it is still kind of a recipe for disaster.

The thing is, it seems that Orthodox Jews go off the derech in far fewer numbers than fundie Christians, etc. So even though the system is fundamentally unsustainable, people are going to keep making it work or die trying. I don't know what it is that keeps so many Jews in there, but something does. Perhaps it's because the inculcation is so extremely systematic; maybe it's because the social networks/community support in the Jewish community are stronger; and maybe because many Hareidi groups maintain more distance from modern life than do Christian fundies. Or, it could be because Hareidi children have an even more restrictive education than Christian fundies, and thus have practically no chance of survival outside the community (many of them do not even speak English). Or marriages are younger, or the pull of the religion is stronger...I'm not sure.

* The Supreme Court recently heard arguments that compelling participation in a government mandated health insurance program may be unconstitutional. If they invalidate that then they invalidate Medicare as it is also a mandatory buy-in. Without Medicare every hospital and most doctors in this country would have to close their doors. As it stands, thanks to the new Medicare rules going into effect most hospitals might not last 10 years.

I thought Medicare was being considered separately?

[AnnieC 305]

I thought Medicare was being considered separately?

From what I can tell it all comes down to exactly how they word the ruling.

The other rule that's being considered is that if anyone on Medicare is admitted to the hospital for any reason, is subsequently discharged and then is re-admitted for any reason (even unrelated) within 30 rolling days then the hospital has to eat the cost of both visits.

So let's say Granny takes a fall in the bathroom. She's not really hurt, but she did whack her head, so they keep her overnight for observation. Twenty-nine days later she has a heart attack and needs a triple bypass. Completely unrelated. Or she has a stroke. Or they find cancer and admit her for surgery. Or she's hit by a drunk driver. In this situation the hospital has two options:

1) Keep her after the fall. Just...keep her. Period. The moment they discharge her the clock starts ticking and they have to weigh the cost of keeping her vs. the worst that could happen.

2) Eat the cost of both the overnight stay for the fall AND the triple bypass.

Or the stroke

Or the cancer treatment

Or the results of the car accident.

You get the idea. Also, transferring to a nursing home = discharge.

So eventually either the hospitals go broke, turn into nursing homes, or have to stop taking Medicare patients. Which would effectively shut all ER's since if you have an ER you must accept Medicare patients, it's the current rule. And without Medicare patients most hospitals would close for lack of funds.

Which means if you don't have private insurance you don't have health care unless you can pay for it cash. Full stop.