(CW&CSA) Josh & Anna 52: Sweeping Crackers for a Lower Sentence

[Hazelbunny]

I think we need a thread filled with @thoughtful's collected works of brilliance!!!  Thank you for the great work! 

[Anne Of Gray Gables]

16 hours ago, AussieKrissy said:

In Oz sometimes it can be a mandatory thing to be able to get parole 

In the US, there is no parole in Federal prison.  He'll get about 15% off for good behavior, and he's blanket trained, so I'm sure he'll follow the rules. If my math is right, if he got 8 years, he'd likely serve less than 7 in prison.

There are other programs like RDAP (Residential Drug Abuse Program) that can shave time off, but I'm not sure Duggar would qualify for any. 

[Father Son Holy Goat]

1 minute ago, Anne Of Gray Gables said:

In the US, there is no parole in Federal prison.  He'll get about 15% off for good behavior, and he's blanket trained, so I'm sure he'll follow the rules. If my math is right, if he got 8 years, he'd likely serve less than 7 in prison.

There are other programs like RDAP (Residential Drug Abuse Program) that can shave time off, but I'm not sure Duggar would qualify for any. 

Prison is the ultimate blanket training 

[Bluebirdbluebell]

26 minutes ago, Anne Of Gray Gables said:

In the US, there is no parole in Federal prison.  He'll get about 15% off for good behavior, and he's blanket trained, so I'm sure he'll follow the rules. If my math is right, if he got 8 years, he'd likely serve less than 7 in prison.

There are other programs like RDAP (Residential Drug Abuse Program) that can shave time off, but I'm not sure Duggar would qualify for any. 

No, he's not. I forget exactly when Michelle started blanket-training, but it was after she had at least 6 or 7 kids. It was when her quiver became unmanageable. Josh being the oldest was definitely not blanket-trained. 

Actually doing research, she seemed to start around the birth of the -iah twins. 

Josh may be well-behaved and may not. He's bad at being good all the time. 

[Mela99]

will he get any kind of rehab/treatment in jail, especially prior to release, or does he have to ask for that and admit guilt?

Sexual rehab is actually very very very hard to get into. They don’t mess around or waste time with anyone unwilling to fess up to what they’ve done.

[marmalade]

5 hours ago, Anne Of Gray Gables said:

In the US, there is no parole in Federal prison.  He'll get about 15% off for good behavior, and he's blanket trained, so I'm sure he'll follow the rules. If my math is right, if he got 8 years, he'd likely serve less than 7 in prison.

There are other programs like RDAP (Residential Drug Abuse Program) that can shave time off, but I'm not sure Duggar would qualify for any.

Edit: nothing to see here. Nevermind. 😃

Edited May 24, 2022 by marmalade

[EmCatlyn]

On 5/21/2022 at 4:23 PM, BadMurphy said:

They are absolutely hypocrites and they would absolutely do this. And if the miracle IVF doctor was in Evil California they’d still do it. They have ZERO shame. 

We have remarked before that Josh doesn’t seem as interested in having many kids as Anna.  Aside from the fact that fertility treatments cost money, and that their religion opposes IVF and so forth, I just don’t see Josh going for it.  (Honestly, I think some people here are more obsessed with Anna’s fertility than Josh is.)  

Josh is actually too selfish to have any interest in more babies with Anna when he gets out of prison. 

[imokit]

4 hours ago, EmCatlyn said:

Josh is actually too selfish to have any interest in more babies with Anna when he gets out of prison. 

If he thinks a redemption baby will get him money/make his life easier, he will go for it.  Realistically he's not doing a lot of parenting anyway, Anna must be joyfully available at all times (regardless of pregnancy or non sleeping newborn) so babies don't affect sex life.  Baby won't impact his life much.  So if he thinks baby will get him something he will go for one.

Josh looks after Josh, and if he feels pretending to play the Christian redeeming sinner card is best for him, that's what he will do. 

[justmy2cents]

48 minutes ago, imokit said:

Josh looks after Josh, and if he feels pretending to play the Christian redeeming sinner card is best for him, that's what he will do. 

I doubt even Josh is so delusional as to think having a baby (victims of CSA) is a good idea to redeem his past behavior. If they ever have more kids it will be because he doesn’t get a long enough sentence and they just continue to do what they always did. If this hasn’t gotten through to Anna, nothing will.

[Sullie06]

No matter how long Josh gets, I can see him possibly going back for a SORA violation in the future. Having all those children around might end up being a huge detriment. Even if he doesn't have re-offending behaviors, SORA has very strict guidelines, which can lead to a violation easily.

[ILoveJellybeans]

I dont know how the system works in America, but if Josh and Anna had another baby and/or there's still minor children in the home when he's released, will CPS automatically be involved? Would it be possible for her to be told "dump the pedo or lose the kids?" especially if she is still in denial of his guilt. This is a thing that can happen in the UK in this situation.

[DottyC]

49 minutes ago, ILoveJellybeans said:

 Would it be possible for her to be told "dump the pedo or lose the kids?" especially if she is still in denial of his guilt. This is a thing that can happen in the UK in this situation.

That was my first thought too. In a previous job I had, this happened. Mum chose the pedo and the kids were taken off her including the one she was expecting when they took the toddler. When the time came they just went to the maternity hospital and took the newborn too, no messing. (UK here too)

[Marshmallow World]

36 minutes ago, ILoveJellybeans said:

I dont know how the system works in America, but if Josh and Anna had another baby and/or there's still minor children in the home when he's released, will CPS automatically be involved?

No, CPS will not automatically be involved unless there is something reported to investigate. They do not provide ongoing supervision in cases like these. There are third-party supervisory agencies and reunification therapists that may be involved, but that is typically not part of release terms for cases like Josh and are usually used in custody/divorce actions. 

Quote

Would it be possible for her to be told "dump the pedo or lose the kids?" especially if she is still in denial of his guilt.

No, there are constitutional rights for parents to have a relationship with their children (some would argue a constitutional guarantee, but that could be seen as splitting hairs). There is has to be something very, very bad for authorities to step in and attempt to terminate Josh's parental rights. Worse than possessing the CSAM that Josh had, you may ask? Yes. It has to be a very bad situation typically involving severe abuse and/or severe neglect, and in my state, authorities wouldn't even bother to initiate termination of parental rights unless another parental figure (foster parent, extended family, etc) is ready and able to step in and take over the parental role, unless there is something horrific going on. Anna could also get divorced and remarry, and stepdad could adopt the children if Josh agrees or the courts adjudicate it best for the children. Because Josh's crimes do not involve his children and Anna (no doubt) does not wish to remarry and have a stepparent adoption, there's no reason for the authorities to initiate any termination action or put the children in foster care. The bar for removal is high. 

That said, I am curious as to what kind of restrictions the court ultimately imposes around minors when Josh is released in many, many years. 

Source: Me, a paralegal who has assisted in litigating multiple termination of parental rights cases for almost a decade. I realize laws vary from state to state, but speaking in generalities, Arkansas is not very different from my state in terms of this. 

[livinginthelight]

9 hours ago, EmCatlyn said:

Josh is actually too selfish to have any interest in more babies with Anna when he gets out of prison. 

I completely agree with you. However, his lack of interest in Anna or the kids might be overridden by a desire to proclaim to the world "I'm a healthy normal family man! And my wife is willing to have sex with me. Nothing to see here folks!"

If he doesn't create more children, the implication might be that she privately sees him as a monster despite her public support and refuses to have sex with him.

[Father Son Holy Goat]

2 hours ago, Sullie06 said:

No matter how long Josh gets, I can see him possibly going back for a SORA violation in the future. Having all those children around might end up being a huge detriment. Even if he doesn't have re-offending behaviors, SORA has very strict guidelines, which can lead to a violation easily.

According to the SORNA website when Josh is released he will have to register all internet identifiers when he registers as a sex offender. 
 

https://smart.ojp.gov/sorna/current-law

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-110publ400/pdf/PLAW-110publ400.pdf

 

 

[Alisamer]

Josh is used to the sort of "rules" that while they might have a long term consequence (you go to hell and burn), the immediate consequences are... inconsequential. Or at least avoidable, to an extent. He's very much used to the "admit you sinned, say you've repented, pray about it, and it goes away" type of consequences for his actions. Hopefully in prison he'll realize that doesn't fly in the real world, but I could see him falling back into that after he's released. 

I give him maybe 5 years post-release before there's another scandal or at minimum a violation of his terms. And I think I'm being pretty generous with that time frame. And that's no matter what happens with Anna.

[Father Son Holy Goat]

7 minutes ago, Alisamer said:

Josh is used to the sort of "rules" that while they might have a long term consequence (you go to hell and burn), the immediate consequences are... inconsequential. Or at least avoidable, to an extent. He's very much used to the "admit you sinned, say you've repented, pray about it, and it goes away" type of consequences for his actions. Hopefully in prison he'll realize that doesn't fly in the real world, but I could see him falling back into that after he's released. 

I give him maybe 5 years post-release before there's another scandal or at minimum a violation of his terms. And I think I'm being pretty generous with that time frame. And that's no matter what happens with Anna.

I give him under 2 years to get caught, I give him 1 week until reoffending. 

[Anne Of Gray Gables]

20 minutes ago, Alisamer said:

I give him maybe 5 years post-release before there's another scandal or at minimum a violation of his terms. And I think I'm being pretty generous with that time frame. And that's no matter what happens with Anna.

I agree, and I actually think he'll re-offend with more CSAM. I agree with the prosecution - he'll just try harder to go undetected, and once again thinking he's the smartest person in the room, he'll eventually be caught again.

I see Jim Bobby's old pal and Josh's mentor-in-crime, James Hutchens, has supposedly been paroled (Radar via the Sun -https://radaronline.com/p/josh-duggar-convicted-state-trooper-let-go-released-from-prison/)   

[sixcatatty]

16 hours ago, Mela99 said:

Sexual rehab is actually very very very hard to get into. They don’t mess around or waste time with anyone unwilling to fess up to what they’ve done.

In Kentucky, people who are unwilling to admit what they've done in Sex Offender Treatment (SOTP for short) serve their sentence day for day; no good time, nothing.

People with more experience in the fed system, is there something similar?

[justmy2cents]

A young woman that worked for my agency did not get to take her baby home from the hospital because there was a history of domestic violence. She would have been able to have the baby at home if she didn’t live with her boyfriend, the baby’s father, but she chose not to leave him. Baby was with a family member and she had limited visits.

 

ETA: replying to an earlier topic

Edited May 24, 2022 by justmy2cents

[Bluebirdbluebell]

I think if they are able to have kids naturally after Josh is released, they will. I can't see them going the IVF route. 

[Alisamer]

9 minutes ago, Bluebirdbluebell said:

I think if they are able to have kids naturally after Josh is released, they will. I can't see them going the IVF route. 

I wouldn't be surprised if IVF is banned in some states by the time he is released, honestly. Louisiana has a law ready to go into effect saying life begins at fertilization, which combined with bans on abortion will make IVF logistically impossible. 

I could see them going with drugs like Clomid, or insemination, or things like that, but not IVF. Their stance against hormonal birth control basically makes IVF a no go for most fundies. 

[Jackie3]

https://lawandcrime.com/celebrity/judge-rejects-josh-duggars-claim-that-prosecutors-failed-to-prove-he-actually-viewed-any-child-pornography-denies-him-a-new-trial/?fbclid=IwAR2v8jZErsFA-zdglReGSJd_Npv_uBg0OKSZ5D37YepDid8mrNcaZ4x8bIw

 

Josh to receive punishment for receipt but not possession. The Court vacated the jury's  conviction for possession. Request for a new trial denied.

Antimony stated:

Quote

Juries *cannot* make a wrong decision in the eyes of the law. 

It seems the Court disagrees with Antimony, since it wrote the following today:

Quote

“[I]t is the Court’s intention to vacate the jury’s conviction for the possession offense and formally dismiss Count 2 during the sentencing hearing,” Judge Brooks wrote.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Jackie3

[Shouldabeenacowboy]

1 hour ago, justmy2cents said:

She would have been able to have the baby at home if she didn’t live with her boyfriend, the baby’s father, but she chose not to leave him.

I always have a hard time understanding these scenarios. I love my husband and he's a great guy, but no matter what happens between us, my child(ren) will always be #1. I cannot imagine any scenario where I would pick a partner - or anyone else- over my child(ren). 

My personal opinion. YMMV. 

[neuroticcat]

22 minutes ago, Jackie3 said:

 

 

Josh to receive punishment for receipt but not possession. The Court vacated the jury's  conviction for possession. Request for a new trial denied.

 

 

What does this mean? Will he get a lesser sentence as a result?