(Possible Child Sexual Abuse Content) Josh and Anna 34: Plea Deal in the Making?

[Antimony]

3 hours ago, raayx01 said:

Apparently he was offered a plea of around 10 years before the grand jury indictment

The amount in the plea is unspecified. They said without a plea, the enhancements suggest a sentence of 10 years. 

[BadMurphy]

On 9/4/2021 at 5:42 PM, EmCatlyn said:

The thing about Josh “blabbing” is there would have to be something in it for him.  It seems to me there are financial disincentives to his “blabbing.”

Even if he does prison time, the odds are he won’t serve much more than a minimum sentence because (in the eyes of the law) this is a first offense.  So he has to think about what will happen when he comes out.   He may feel that he will need JB or his siblings to help him out financially after he gets out of jail.  (And he might also need his family to help him buy soap, toilet paper and whatever else he needs in prison while he is there.)  He is unlikely to “blab” if he thinks he will need his family’s help.

Even if JB drops him some other Fundie nut job will add to his commissary. JillRod would just LOVE to do that (at the expense of her children’s grocery bill)

[marmalade]

Does anyone recall the name of the YouTube lawyer who broke down Smuggar's potential sentence? I don't mean Emily D Baker; this was someone else.

[onekidanddone]

58 minutes ago, marmalade said:

Does anyone recall the name of the YouTube lawyer who broke down Smuggar's potential sentence? I don't mean Emily D Baker; this was someone else.

Do you mean Katie Joy from with out a crystal ball?

[marmalade]

15 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

Do you mean Katie Joy from with out a crystal ball?

No, this was a man, almost positive he was an attorney. He took each piece of information that could be used to add or subtract time from Smuggar's sentence and concluded that he would likely serve around 8 years. 

Found him! Here's his video for reference.

 

Edited September 11, 2021 by marmalade
Added stuff

[JMO]

Going back to the discussion of convictions and in particular Casey Anthony.  I read a medical journal article several years ago that looked at charges vs conviction vs jail time in child abuse homicides.  The results showed that for mothers the rate of being charged much less convicted, even when the case was clear cut or even if there was an admission of guilt, was low since the jury would sympathize with the mother for having lost a child.  Totally fucked up.  

[ifosterkittens]

Emily D Baker posted on Instagram she is looking at the new Duggar filings so I am hoping she will cover it tomorrow on Coffee and Cursey words on her YouTube channel. 

[Alisamer]

On 9/10/2021 at 9:19 PM, Queen Of Hearts said:

Personally, I hope that he rejects the plea and this goes to court and his family (JB and Anna specifically) are forced to hear ALL the truth  and he gets the max sentence possible... but at least with a plea we know he will be behind bars so that is probably the best outcome.

I agree. I'd like to see all the truth come out, max sentencing, and as a bonus - JimBob losing tons of money along with the family's reputation. I hope the magazines who have been profiting from sharing all their announcements eek out the last bit of cash they can milk from them by reporting the heck out of the trial and all the nasty details of exactly what this "Christian" they've been holding up did. 

Fundies can excuse a LOT but I think some stuff just might be beyond excusing. The average Counting On viewer or person who vaguely knows of them as "that big Christian family" isn't going to excuse this mess. In fact, my sister, who has always been "oh, they're so nice and debt-free and they share their Christianity..." is now like "that guy is scum and the family is messed up". The hardcore fundamentalists who idolize them (ahem, Jillrod) might latch onto the "satan is attacking them" narrative but the general public is not going to buy that whether they are Christian or not. (In fact I expect many people who consider themselves Christian will be angry that the Duggars claim Christianity while excusing away how horrible Josh is.)

That said, a plea would probably be best. There's always the chance of a jury trial going awry. 

[Snarkasarus Rex]

I think he will plead out, but they will drag it out until the last minute hoping for a Hail Mary.  I’m wondering if Boob will have to threaten Pest with cutting financial support to get him to plead out?

[Jewels64]

On 9/10/2021 at 7:18 PM, onekidanddone said:

WOACB is live now with breaking news. I missed the beginning so I’m not sure exactly what is going on but I think it has to do with images of his hands and a a plea deal

KJ's breaking news is stuff she read here. The lady reads and claims she has insider info.  She is a fraud. 

[Antimony]

3 hours ago, Snarkasarus Rex said:

I think he will plead out, but they will drag it out until the last minute hoping for a Hail Mary.  I’m wondering if Boob will have to threaten Pest with cutting financial support to get him to plead out?

I was under the impression that the option to plea depends pretty heavily on the relationship between the defense and prosecution and that the prosecution has to offer that plea up. It appears the Duggar defense team has already turned down one (informal) plea offer -- is another offer likely? Won't there come a point where a plea is no longer an offer on the table for the Duggar defense? Can a lawyer-type confirm?  The language in the government's motions is increasingly snarky and I have to wonder if that relationship is deteriorating rapidly. 

Also, thank you to everybody who said my explanation of the documents was easy to read. I was deeply uh, under the influence when reading and summarizing and quoting but I think I got it pretty well despite that. I didn't mean for those things to align, the documents just got dropped just as I was really leaning into the idea of "Friday night". 

[ifosterkittens]

Coffee and Cursey Words (Emily D Baker) was moved to tomorrow (Wednesday) at 11 AM Central Time this week. Looks like Duggar will be covered. 

[ifosterkittens]

17 hours ago, Antimony said:

I was under the impression that the option to plea depends pretty heavily on the relationship between the defense and prosecution and that the prosecution has to offer that plea up. It appears the Duggar defense team has already turned down one (informal) plea offer -- is another offer likely? Won't there come a point where a plea is no longer an offer on the table for the Duggar defense? Can a lawyer-type confirm?  The language in the government's motions is increasingly snarky and I have to wonder if that relationship is deteriorating rapidly. 

I would love for someone who is in the know to answer this question! The judge said she needs to be notified of a change of plea by Oct 18, and have it completed by Oct 20, so I thought that was the deadline. The government already knows the ins and outs of this case, and have put in a ton of time, but a trial takes a ton of time and effort to prepare so if Josh would take plea wouldn't they rather move on to the next case? 

@marmalade posted a very helpful video with the sentencing guidelines table. If he plead guilty 87-108 months (7.25-9 years), and if he went to trial and lost 108-135 months (9-11.25 years). The highest possible sentence is 235 months (19.5 years) which the court could theoretically give. Defense can argue for a motion of variance (consider the burden to my family, this is an addiction etc) if he pleads guilty. He said most judges stick to the guidelines and if not have to justify why they didn't. I am not sure if this is sentencing just one of the charges or both of the charges. Are we talking 87-108 months per charge (there are two), or 87-108 for both? If anyone knows the answer please clarify. 

Like others have said I imagine Jim Bob is coming up with his rebranding, way to rebuild the Duggar name, and if Josh pleading guilty or going to trial supports the rebrand that is what he will tell Josh to do. I don't think the outcome for Josh is Jim Bob's focus; I think Jim Bob's focus is the Duggar brand.

[displayname]

So what's the deal with the scar on the hand thing? Has this been known? Or are things turning even darker?

[harkasquirrel]

28 minutes ago, displayname said:

So what's the deal with the scar on the hand thing? Has this been known? Or are things turning even darker?

It would fit with his lawyers trying to get photos of his hands and feet thrown out.

[Jess]

5 hours ago, ifosterkittens said:

I would love for someone who is in the know to answer this question! The judge said she needs to be notified of a change of plea by Oct 18, and have it completed by Oct 20, so I thought that was the deadline. The government already knows the ins and outs of this case, and have put in a ton of time, but a trial takes a ton of time and effort to prepare so if Josh would take plea wouldn't they rather move on to the next case? 

@marmalade posted a very helpful video with the sentencing guidelines table. If he plead guilty 87-108 months (7.25-9 years), and if he went to trial and lost 108-135 months (9-11.25 years). The highest possible sentence is 235 months (19.5 years) which the court could theoretically give. Defense can argue for a motion of variance (consider the burden to my family, this is an addiction etc) if he pleads guilty. He said most judges stick to the guidelines and if not have to justify why they didn't. I am not sure if this is sentencing just one of the charges or both of the charges. Are we talking 87-108 months per charge (there are two), or 87-108 for both? If anyone knows the answer please clarify. 

Like others have said I imagine Jim Bob is coming up with his rebranding, way to rebuild the Duggar name, and if Josh pleading guilty or going to trial supports the rebrand that is what he will tell Josh to do. I don't think the outcome for Josh is Jim Bob's focus; I think Jim Bob's focus is the Duggar brand.

People can get and take plea deals at any time before the jury comes back with a verdict. It’s not that weird for people to take plea deals the day the trial is supposed to start. The judge would of course like any plea deal if it happens to be worked out before the court calendar blocks out a huge chunk of time for a trial. It’s a big waste of the courts time if the deal is worked out later. That being sad I doubt there is any judge would attempt reject a plea deal at any point unless there is some weird underlying issue with the plea deal. This deadline is like the judges way of pressuring the parties to try a and work things out without wasting the courts time.

[Cults-r-us]

On 9/13/2021 at 3:07 PM, Snarkasarus Rex said:

I think he will plead out, but they will drag it out until the last minute hoping for a Hail Mary.  I’m wondering if Boob will have to threaten Pest with cutting financial support to get him to plead out?

Don't pile on me and Rufus forgive but I always want hope for this POS. Why can't he want to change? He was such a cute kid! I believe he is an actor at heart, nice at home but doing his nasties in secret, a fundie Jekyl and Hyde..

When my friend was in jail, they made him do a lot of written work about the life he wanted.

Maybe jail will be good for Josh?  What could help his idiot, fertility-goddess wife? I want hope for these people!

[EmCatlyn]

10 hours ago, ifosterkittens said:

[snipped]

@marmalade posted a very helpful video with the sentencing guidelines table. If he plead guilty 87-108 months (7.25-9 years), and if he went to trial and lost 108-135 months (9-11.25 years). The highest possible sentence is 235 months (19.5 years) which the court could theoretically give. Defense can argue for a motion of variance (consider the burden to my family, this is an addiction etc) if he pleads guilty. He said most judges stick to the guidelines and if not have to justify why they didn't. I am not sure if this is sentencing just one of the charges or both of the charges. Are we talking 87-108 months per charge (there are two), or 87-108 for both? If anyone knows the answer please clarify. 

[snipped]

As I understood it, the attorney in the video (Scott) said that if there was a plea deal, the first thing they would do as part of the plea was ask to drop one of the charges and be sentenced only for the other charge.  I think he said that each charge would carry similar sentencing.  He was only discussing one charge because if Josh pled guilty, he would only be pleading to one charge.

The point he didn’t emphasize was that if Josh went to court and was found guilty of both charges he would face the penalty for both counts. I don’t know (someone who does, please explain) if it is common to allow serving the sentences fir the two charges concurrently or if they would have to be served sequentially.  If so, the time in prison would essentially double.

In short, as I understand it, Josh may face the choice of pleading guilty and serving around 7 years for one charge and if found guilty, having two sentences of roughly 9 years for each charge and the possibility that he might not be able to serve them concurrently (so, around 18 years).

I agree that the decision will probably be made by JB based on what he thinks will be best for the Duggar brand.

[klabourdeth]

if it is common to allow serving the sentences for the two charges concurrently or if they would have to be served sequentially.  

If I recall correctly, it’s the Judge choice* if he allowed to be served concurrently or not. My guess Josh would serve concurrently with his previous jail time deducting some of the time. Unless there is more disturbing information presented during trail.





*or jury if they are the ones I decide. I know some trails have the jury choose the sentencing but unsure in this matter.

[Howl]

9 hours ago, Cults-r-us said:

Maybe jail will be good for Josh?  What could help his idiot, fertility-goddess wife? I want hope for these people!

Prison could be very good for Josh IF mandatory SECULAR counseling/treatment specific to child sex offenders is part of  it.

He's only done Jesus (pray away the problem) counseling up to this point that I'm aware of and most of the rest of the family and his wife are clueless, as they have been since it was revealed that he molested his sisters.

The Duggars/Anna are still steeped in the IBLP/ATI idiocy that gives zero insight into his problem.  Never, ever forget that Bill Gothard himself and at least one brother were sexual perverts/deviants/abusers.  

But back to Josh: his sexual compulsions have manifested in so many different ways over the years, and those are only the ones we know about...

At some point (likely 8 to 18 years in the future based on this thread) everyone will be better off when  he's released from prison on probation with at least some insight on how to address and reign in those compulsions.  

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by Howl

[fundiefriday]

Based on the court documents, Josh's trial is scheduled for Nov. 30th.  If he doesn't take a plea deal and the case doesn't get continued, then will the actual trial start on Nov. 30th or is that when jury selection begins?  I don't know much about the federal trial process.  

[Jess]

1 hour ago, fundiefriday said:

Based on the court documents, Josh's trial is scheduled for Nov. 30th.  If he doesn't take a plea deal and the case doesn't get continued, then will the actual trial start on Nov. 30th or is that when jury selection begins?  I don't know much about the federal trial process.  

Jury selection would probably begin that day. I know of a couple judges where the first day is making sure there are not any outstanding pretrial issues and that they are really going forward for sure before the jury is called in the next day. I wouldn’t expect jury selection for this case to be a multi day affair. It’s very common for jury selection to only take a few hours and opening statements to start the first day. It’s only in those very high profile cases where everyone has heard about the facts in detail and they need to go through hundreds of people to get a jury that it takes a long time. People have said the Duggar’s are not really that popular in Arkansas. So, for normal standard things it’s more like ask Juror No. 1 couple relevant questions okay good to go. Juror No. 2 makes it clear you better let them out do this or they will make you pay by giving ridiculous answers. No. 3 good to go ect.

 

[starfish]

The vast majority of federal criminal case (something like 95%) are pleas and not trial. Among child pornography cases, I suspect that number is even higher. The Government will display the images to the jury during a trial and most defendants do not want that. Also, a defendant loses "acceptance of responsibility" if they proceed to trial and faces a higher sentence if those three levels/points are not subtracted from their offense level.

Federal sentences are based off a grid table. Federal judges rely heavily on a Pre Sentence Report prepared by federal probation. This document will be sealed. Josh will come in at a "zero" for criminal history, but there are numerous enhancements for child pornography cases such as the age of the children in the images and other factors I do not want to mention here. His attorneys need to be talking to him about the reality of his prison time.    

[Grace]

10 hours ago, fundiefriday said:

Based on the court documents, Josh's trial is scheduled for Nov. 30th.  If he doesn't take a plea deal and the case doesn't get continued, then will the actual trial start on Nov. 30th or is that when jury selection begins?  I don't know much about the federal trial process.  

Oh.....ohhhhh noooooo. I have only just this moment realized I could possibly get called up for that jury pool. No. Please no. I do not want to be subjected to details. Do you think "I'm a member of Free Jinger"  could get me disqualified???? Please?

[AussieKrissy]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Oh.....ohhhhh noooooo. I have only just this moment realized I could possibly get called up for that jury pool. No. Please no. I do not want to be subjected to details. Do you think "I'm a member of Free Jinger"  could get me disqualified???? Please?

Yes i think it would 

The defense definitely would not want you if they did their research on what FJ is