Fourth America: America Wants a Divorce

[Ozlsn]

I really wasn't sure where this fit best, so started a new thread. I hope that's OK. Fourth America is over: Americans want a divorce is an opinion piece/analysis looking at a lot of factors around the current turmoil, but the part that interested me a lot was the survey results around secession in the US (yes @fraurosena surveys have interesting limitations and can be manipulated!) To quote:

Even among Democrats, particularly in Pacific America — the West Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, Hawai’i, and in this survey design Alaska — support for outright secession is incredibly high.

45% of Democrats — who are more than half of the voters out here — want to be free from D.C.

That’s only surpassed by Republicans and Independents in the South — the heart of the old Confederacy — at 66% and 50%. That’s not a surprise, given the region’s history and Republican rejection of the 2020 Presidential Election.

But that even with a Democrat in office Pacific Americans are becoming more supportive of secession — that should come as a dire warning.

I am honestly not sure that the proposed model in the article could work - splitting into e.g. 5 regional "countries" with a council of Presidents as a federalist overview for things like the military sounds like a recipe for disaster to me - what happens if one or more regions become fundamentalist theocracies - do they still control the military in their region, and could they declare war unilaterally against the heathen democratic socialist Pacific republic? (Also this doesn't sound like less government, just saying.)

I'm also not sure that any clear pathway for secession of states and/or regions was established after the Civil War, which is a pity really as it would have been an entertaining option over the past 30 or so years.

The analysis of the 2020 election and how close it was in the article, and the predictions around the upcoming 2022 mid-terms are concerning though:

Spoiler

As I also predicted, Biden’s public outreach across the aisle has failed. Sure, he may get a watered-down bipartisan infrastructure bill passed yet. And it is even possible that reconciliation will give him a big win.

But the cost will be high. He is going to lose the House to Republican gerrymandering and the normal decline in support for the incumbent President’s party that almost always happens in midterm elections. No matter how small a reconciliation spending bill might be, the centrist mood has shifted strongly to fears of inflation and the rising national debt. Republicans will cast Democratic spending as socialism, and their voters will turn out in 2022 to fight it.

The Republicans more or less want the Articles of Confederation back. And they’re willing to rig elections to ensure the federal government can never tell their states what to do.

That means by 2023 the Biden administration is toast unless it is willing to move right. Which would upset the progressives the Democrats must get to turn out in 2024 — an option the Dems might well chose, though it will be fatal.

I don't know what the way forward is - would breaking up the Republic be an option? What do people think?

Edited July 27, 2021 by Coconut Flan

[fraurosena]

Looking at the way government is organized in the US, I think it is doomed to fail in it's current iteration. There are too many laws, rules and regulations that enable a minority to have almost absolute power over the vast majority. The Civil War never actually ended, and racism and bigotry are rampant, the Southern States have way too much power over the rest of the country, and there is no real democracy as long as billionaires and big companies can buy policies. 

The past few years have made it abundantly clear that the US is teetering on the edge of complete breakdown. So despite my wellknown aversion to surveys, I can readily believe that many people want change and see secession as a means to that end. In fact, it would not surprise me in the slightest if in the coming decade some states will seriously consider it.

Whatever happens, the US can't sustain it's current organization. It will need a complete and thorough overhaul in order to survive.

I only hope this can be achieved peacefully, but I am afraid it won't be.

[Alisamer]

10 hours ago, Ozlsn said:

what happens if one or more regions become fundamentalist theocracies -

WHEN. You mean WHEN one of the regions becomes a fundamentalist theocracy. Because I think the chances of that NOT happening are pretty slim, if regions are broken up into individual countries.

I don't know what the answer is, or if there really is one. I would not be surprised to see an attempted secession in the next decades - probably Texas. And frankly, I'm so worn out by politics and pandemic that at this point my thoughts are along the lines of "let's rescue the smart Texans and send in our stupidest to fill their place, and let them be their own shithole country and leave us in peace." Which sucks, because I know there are plenty of decent Texans. But I feel like the way they are with their own power grid and such, they've been inching toward secession for quite a while now. And if Ted Cruz is the best they have to send to congress... yeah.

I don't love the idea of breaking up by region, because I'm in a purplish-red area of the South and I don't want to be stuck with the religious crazies. Many of the cities in the South are pretty progressive and blue. If there's a breakup of the US it's likely to be chaos. I could see big rural Trumplandia, with a smaller population and very red, dotted with democratic city states with their own network of government and a bigger population. 

The thing is that I think the divide is less by location and more by other factors. It's not people who live in the South who are all republican, it's more rural people, less educated people, more religious people, and some rich people who realize they can benefit off the backs of those people. Cities are blue, rural areas are red, for the most part. When voting trends are brought down to actual locations, you can easily pick out where cities are, where universities are, etc.

BUT... the rural areas feed the cities. The cities pay for services in the rural areas. They're symbiotic. Without the rural areas being part of the same country, cities would have to import basically everything. Rural areas would be left without high-level hospitals and with fewer educational options and lower access to technology. The cities would get more expensive, but might have more tax money to use to better provide for their people in need. The rural areas would struggle without the tax money from the cities being used for their infrastructure. The cities would possibly get more educated, while the rural areas would become less so - creating even more of a divide. 

I have a hard time imagining how things would work - dividing by region isn't going to make anything less divisive, there would still be big red areas of land and more populous blue areas. I imagine it looking a lot like the Hunger Games eventually - but instead of one Capitol there are multiple cities like that, surrounded by poorer countryside. 

I just hope if it happens my little town gets lumped in with the city!

[WiseGirl]

Very interesting if the US does break up. Would it be the 7 geographic regions? 

https://www.theclassroom.com/seven-regions-united-states-7694052.html

Or the 11 regions/nations?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/the-11-nations-of-the-united-states-2015-7%3famp

Honestly I do wonder if it will happen in my lifetime.  And to think , before 2016 it never crossed my mind that it would even be a possibility.

Edited July 27, 2021 by WiseGirl
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[SPHASH]

I read once the average federal constitution in history from biblical times to the present lasts about 200 years, our constitution has been around since 1788.