[CW: Child Sex Abuse] Josh & Anna 33: Ohhh Honey It Is Already a Disaster.....

[Antimony]

10 hours ago, Mama Mia said:

Unless they have some sort of serious, specific, incredibly effective treatment, probably combined with medication - I don’t see him stopping He might wait awhile, he might switch up HOW he’s acting out, but he will do something that crashes everything down around him, and it will almost certainly involve something sexual. 
 

We talk about how he got no consequences from his previous actions - but really he did. When he was a teen he was humiliated in front of everyone he knew, he probably had the sh*t beat out of him repeatedly, he had to do a ton of manual labor (probably to levels that would be illegal in most US prison systems) [snip]

1. There are some (debatable, but apparently frequently effective) treatments for pedophiles that essentially are hormone treatments. They squash libido. It's less than I don't think they could work and more that I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that any Duggar visits an endocrinologist for something other than pregnancy issues, much less visits one that does this specific type of treatment, and less than a snowball's chance in hell that any Duggar asks for an antiandrogen. (I mean, an antiandrogen! It's the antithesis of Fundie-Branded Toxic Masculinity.)

2. I highly doubt that the Duggar's surpassed the U.S. prison system in terms of forced labor on their golden child, since a lot of US prisons amount to not much more than modern slavery. 

[Mama Mia]

1 hour ago, Antimony said:

1. There are some (debatable, but apparently frequently effective) treatments for pedophiles that essentially are hormone treatments. They squash libido. It's less than I don't think they could work and more that I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that any Duggar visits an endocrinologist for something other than pregnancy issues, much less visits one that does this specific type of treatment, and less than a snowball's chance in hell that any Duggar asks for an antiandrogen. (I mean, an antiandrogen! It's the antithesis of Fundie-Branded Toxic Masculinity.)

2. I highly doubt that the Duggar's surpassed the U.S. prison system in terms of forced labor on their golden child, since a lot of US prisons amount to not much more than modern slavery. 

Can a prison require treatment for sex offenders? Including with medication? Or make it enough of a carrot and stick for release dates and movement restrictions upon release that Josh would find it worth it? 
 

As far as work camps and forced labor I’m thinking the Duggar’s likely followed the principles of some of the more atrocious “therapeutic” boarding schools for troubled teens- and then tripled down on that. I know many prison systems force labor, but I don’t think to that extent, and not in the juvenile system. Although we are talking about a state that still allows public school kids to get hit with boards - so who knows? 

 

[Antimony]

1 hour ago, Mama Mia said:

Can a prison require treatment for sex offenders? Including with medication? Or make it enough of a carrot and stick for release dates and movement restrictions upon release that Josh would find it worth it? 

As far as work camps and forced labor I’m thinking the Duggar’s likely followed the principles of some of the more atrocious “therapeutic” boarding schools for troubled teens- and then tripled down on that. I know many prison systems force labor, but I don’t think to that extent, and not in the juvenile system. Although we are talking about a state that still allows public school kids to get hit with boards - so who knows? 

I don't think any state can require chemical sex offender treatment. Plenty states require talk therapy for offenders of various kinds, which can be effective in some cases. (Mostly because "sex offender" is a wide group, and an opportunistic pedophile is very different than a preferential pedophile, in terms of behavior and psychology.) When I worked at a women's shelter, we had domestic abusers attend required therapy. There's also a money problem here though -- most of these programs are group programs and a six-week group program just isn't going to be as effective for any therapeutic goals as, say, 2-3 years of 1:1 therapy with a specialist. (He's come up before on FJ because he reviews episodes of Plathville, but Dr. Kirk Honda has been a therapist for some such abusers and generally reflects that the efficacy is most likely linked to the client's willingness to buy-in to the process, which the Duggars never would, and their ability to address root issues.) There are also some serious contraindications for these types of hormone therapies, so I think you'd be in a real legal struggle trying to mandate chemical castration. I have heard of pedophiles who don't want to be pedophiles opting into such treatment but of course, the stigma does mean it's difficult to even approach a doctor to ask for a chemical castration. This, obviously, seems like an unlikely route for Josh and chemical castration is kind of a broad attack -- it would be threatening to the whole "procreate as much as humanly possible" Fundie belief. 

Just for fun (I've got to get better hobbies, folks), I looked up Arkansas's particular sex offender registry laws;

Quote

Under Arkansas law, a Level 3 or Level 4 offender is not allowed to live within 2,000 feet of a school, certain parks, youth centers or day cares. Level 4 registrants are also prohibited from living within 2,000 feet of any place of worship.

As far as I can tell, none of this would matter to any Duggar because they essentially don't recognize ideas like "school" or "church" as existing in designated buildings. 2000 feet also isn't a lot of distance unless you're in a city, in which case it might make it impossible for one to live anywhere. (See the Miami-Dade County Sex Offender Tent City.) I could not determine which Level Josh might be because that information is buried in PDFs of legalese that I am unable to parse for a lack of a JD.

I only am kind of obnoxious (read: very obnoxious) about comparisons to prisons because I view (especially the US) prison system as a complete tragedy, and one that isn't even effective. I am trying to walk away from Omelas, in that sense, which can be difficult. I think the abuses that happen in our prison system can't really be overstated, and it's hard to even really tell what's going on in there. If anybody doesn't find me tiresome at this point, I would recommend Shane Bauer's book American Prison:  A Reporter's Undercover Journey into the Business of Punishment (2018, so relatively modern). If you, like me, also have too may books on your reading list, Bauer wrote a shorter-form article for Mother Jones that is essentially a SparkNotes of the full book. If you would like to become an unbearable person in the way I am about prison issues, I'd recommend We Do This Til We Free Us: Abolitionist Organizing and Transforming Justice by Mariame Kaba, and any amount of Angela Davis' work you can get. (Her books are dense, but her speeches are free on Spotify.)  It's all messy stuff, but Josh's case brings these works to the forefront of my mind because even if the criminal justice system gets us something that is emotionally satisfying and a beautiful slice of schadenfreude (which I admit, much contrary to my own aspirations for myself, I will enjoy immensely), it still won't protect future victims and the way the Duggar's operate as a microculture will just promote more miscarriages of justice and continue to allow victimization. 

(Also, I think these juvenile programs are utterly bonkers, and if you want more rabbit holes, Dr. Phil's on the hot seat for promoting some such programs and sending guests of his show to them. Disgusting crap, all around.)

[libgirl2]

There is no way Josh would take part in a chemical castration. 

[Bad Wolf]

I wonder what's going through Josh's head. Does he understand what he's done? Does he realize the impact it's having on his family? Does he equate the children he saw in the videos with his own children, or does he think it's a victimless crime because HE didn't actually molest them? Is he grateful for the Rebers for giving him a place to stay and to his wife for bringing the children to see him? Does he know that he's privileged to not be in jail?

Or is he just pissed that he got caught. I'm guessing that.

[SorenaJ]

Is Josh not afraid of God’s wrath and Hell and whatnot? 

[ADoyle90815]

I think it's possible that Josh is arrogant enough to still think he might get away with what he's done. If anything, he might be just pissed off that he got caught in the first place.

[formergothardite]

25 minutes ago, SorenaJ said:

Is Josh not afraid of God’s wrath and Hell and whatnot? 

I would honestly be surprised if Josh is a true believer. He is probably like all those other religious leaders who commit atrocities. I think these people view religion as a means to get power and don’t actually believe the hellfire and damnation. 

[Jana814]

15 minutes ago, ADoyle90815 said:

I think it's possible that Josh is arrogant enough to still think he might get away with what he's done. If anything, he might be just pissed off that he got caught in the first place.

I very much agree with this I thought this from the beginning. He’s probably surprised that he got caught & is in big trouble for it. 

[nokidsmom]

12 hours ago, EmCatlyn said:

The problem for these kids is if they don’t break away from the family or its teachings.  Then they will remain within a community that knows all the scandal and while ostentatiously forgiving Josh with great Christian compassion will nevertheless look askance at his family.

This is where I feel sad for the kids.   Through no fault of their own, and even while they are still children they face a future being marked by what their father has done, especially in their particular community.   Their insular family will still remain within that community, forcing them to live with their father's scarlet "A".   They would be a lot better off going for a blank slate, not easy to do, but if they want to live a life that's not under a constant cloud, they need to get away, get out, change name, whatever it takes.  

 

[Jencendiary]

On 6/18/2021 at 4:34 PM, viii said:

Do we have proof that the Duggars actually believe this? If they do, why isn't anyone looking at Jim Bob and Michelle then to explain Josh?! Unless that's why they told us Michelle mowed the lawn in a bikini... Josh makes so much sense now!

It's explicitly listed in Gothard teaching.

[SnarkyLawyer]

On 6/8/2021 at 4:28 PM, Antimony said:

I believe you, and I agree, but I think the matter of when might be interesting -- how long will he keep paying these lawyers before he realizes the best option? It's a good payday if you're a lawyer for this particular brand of cocky idiot, I suppose. Gelfand seems like the biggest bigwig of his team, but a search for his CSA cases leads to some notable guilty pleas. I also don't have my finger on the pulse of how the public perceived a guilty plea. Because of the system through which these pleas work, I usually don't assume they mean an actual admittance of guilt but I suspect that a lot of people do read them that way, and that image would matter to Jim Bob and/or Josh.

Interestingly, this isn't even his first 'Dugg-r'. Gelfand defended a Justin Dugger in a CSA case in Missouri in 2014. Also a guilty plea, for 37 months. (This particular crime would have ranked lower on sentencing guidelines than Josh's, for what that comparison is worth.)

My best guess is a judge will grant a continuance, but not give the defense an extra 6 months, as requested. He probably won't start serving time, until sometime next year. Have the federal sentencing guidelines already been discussed? 

[AussieKrissy]

8 hours ago, SorenaJ said:

Is Josh not afraid of God’s wrath and Hell and whatnot? 

I think Josh no longer believes in god. But is trapped and has to pretend too. 
 

[Expectopatronus]

8 hours ago, SorenaJ said:

Is Josh not afraid of God’s wrath and Hell and whatnot? 

I think this another area where these ultra fundie churches are dangerous. If you’re already going to Hell for having urges, why not go all the way and act on them? Not saying that I agree with this philosophy or that I excuse downloading CSA material but if an unwanted urge is simply labeled as ´sin’ and therapy isn’t an option then I think it shouldn’t be shocking that horrific acts occur. 

[Antimony]

1 hour ago, SnarkyLawyer said:

My best guess is a judge will grant a continuance, but not give the defense an extra 6 months, as requested. He probably won't start serving time, until sometime next year. Have the federal sentencing guidelines already been discussed? 

I have been following less here, but somebody on a sub Reddit did a point-by-point breakdown of the guidelines and came up with, IIRC, ~11-13 years if he doesn't cooperate. ~10 might be the median estimate. 

[marmalade]

The prosecution has responded to Smuggar's request for a continuation. They countered with 3 months rather than 7. They say that's plenty not time for the defense to review evidence which they confirm the defense has. 

It's the judge's call now.

Edited June 22, 2021 by marmalade
Forgot to add the file! Oops!

[LorEl]

4 hours ago, Antimony said:

I have been following less here, but somebody on a sub Reddit did a point-by-point breakdown of the guidelines and came up with, IIRC, ~11-13 years if he doesn't cooperate. ~10 might be the median estimate. 

As I have mentioned before, a former friend of mine was arrested and charged for possession of child pornography, possession of over 600 files of child pornography, and distribution of child pornography. This was the result:

 The defendant is hereby committed to the custody of the United States Bureau of Prisons to be imprisoned for a total term of: 36 months. 
 
I don’t think he will be in jail for a long period of time.

[RosyDaisy]

On 6/20/2021 at 9:59 PM, feministxtian said:

I think he's a sick and twisted human being. He'd be that way as a fundie or a secular person.

This!  I also think being raised fundie and not allowed to be alone with girls may have kept the number of victims Josh molested low.  Well, at least before he was married and had more freedom.

[Idlewild]

I think attributing Josh’s behaviour to not being alone with girls feeds the Duggar narrative of him being a ‘sexually curious’ teen. Although these crimes are badged sexual offences, what they are really about is violence, control and degradation. The brand of patriarchal BS this family promotes has given Josh a sense of entitlement about fulfilling his violent fantasies.

There are plenty of men with conservative upbringings who do not seek to abuse women or children.

[Nike]

14 hours ago, Bad Wolf said:

I wonder what's going through Josh's head. Does he understand what he's done? Does he realize the impact it's having on his family? Does he equate the children he saw in the videos with his own children, or does he think it's a victimless crime because HE didn't actually molest them? Is he grateful for the Rebers for giving him a place to stay and to his wife for bringing the children to see him? Does he know that he's privileged to not be in jail?

Or is he just pissed that he got caught. I'm guessing that.

I can't speak for Josh of course but had the misfortune of being with someone who got arrested for child pornography. He and his family looked for every excuse in the world: he hadn't physically touched a child; he had a 'problem' and need our support not condemnation. He even said it was his 'other persona who took over at night' . 

I also worked with men who have been charged with child sex crimes in my previous job and they all gave me the same excuses as my ex. I'm yet to find one who expresses shame, remorse and a wish to change. Not saying that they don't exist but I haven't met anyone. 

[SorenaJ]

I read an article about  "anti-contact" paedophiles, who was very aware that their urges were wrong, and stayed completely away from children, so you can still be attracted to minors, and fully understand that it is wrong, and never respond to the urge. 

[RosyDaisy]

2 hours ago, Idlewild said:

I think attributing Josh’s behaviour to not being alone with girls feeds the Duggar narrative of him being a ‘sexually curious’ teen. Although these crimes are badged sexual offences, what they are really about is violence, control and degradation. The brand of patriarchal BS this family promotes has given Josh a sense of entitlement about fulfilling his violent fantasies.

There are plenty of men with conservative upbringings who do not seek to abuse women or children.

I was referring to Josh's upbringing being a factor in opportunity and access, not the severity or anything else.  Josh is a sick pedophile no matter how many victims he has.

[bal maiden]

19 hours ago, Antimony said:

 

As far as I can tell, none of this would matter to any Duggar because they essentially don't recognize ideas like "school" or "church" as existing in designated buildings. 2000 feet also isn't a lot of distance unless you're in a city, in which case it might make it impossible for one to live anywhere. (See the Miami-Dade County Sex Offender Tent City.) I could not determine which Level Josh might be because that information is buried in PDFs of legalese that I am unable to parse for a lack of a JD.

 

Didn't the Duggars get the big house registered as a church (for tax evasion, or something)? Or was that a bit of a myth. It would be SEVERELY ironic if the Arbor Acres house being technically a church meant that Josh couldn't live on the compound.

[Antimony]

5 hours ago, LorEl said:

As I have mentioned before, a former friend of mine was arrested and charged for possession of child pornography, possession of over 600 files of child pornography, and distribution of child pornography. This was the result:

 The defendant is hereby committed to the custody of the United States Bureau of Prisons to be imprisoned for a total term of: 36 months. 
 
I don’t think he will be in jail for a long period of time.

I think I found where people are doing the estimates. There's a blog here; https://www.federalcriminallawyer.us/2020/11/14/federal-child-pornography/

The relevant part is;

Quote

Hypothetical Situation
A defendant was indicted on possession of child pornography charges. This person had 200 images of child pornography in their possession, which they downloaded using their home computer. The images depicted toddlers as well as young children under the age of 12 years old.

Applicable Guidelines
Based on the hypothetical situation described above, the following guidelines would apply:

Base level offense of Possession of Child Pornography – 18 points §2G2.2(a)(1);

Material of age under 12 years old – 2-point enhancement §2G2.2(b)(2);

Materials involving exploitation of toddler – 4-point enhancement §2G2.2(4);

Offense involved the use of a computer – 2-point enhancement §2G2.2(5); and

At least 150 images but fewer than 300 – 3-point enhancement §2G2.2(7)(B).

The point total of the hypothetical would be 29, bringing the defendants sentencing guideline range to 87-108 months. This is a stark difference from the 27-33 months associated with the base level offense.

The above-mentioned hypothetical does not take into account the downward departures or the 3553 factors that can impact a defendant’s sentence.

This blog is recent (though still prior to the big news break) and honestly, weirdly Josh aligned. Obviously a lot of factors and US courts are not really known for their consistency in sentences -- a lot can come down to a judge-to-judge or jury basis. (Weirdly, in some states, a judge can take a jury's recommendation of life-w/o-parole and go, "eh, heck it, death penalty" entirely legally, which seems not in the spirit of things. ) It also depends if the judge is elected and if the case happens on an election year -- sentences are more severe on election years.  

It's just going to depend on a lot of things and might be kind of unpredictable.

[JenniferJuniper]

5 hours ago, LorEl said:

As I have mentioned before, a former friend of mine was arrested and charged for possession of child pornography, possession of over 600 files of child pornography, and distribution of child pornography. This was the result:

 The defendant is hereby committed to the custody of the United States Bureau of Prisons to be imprisoned for a total term of: 36 months. 
 
I don’t think he will be in jail for a long period of time.

From what I've read trying to suss out Josh's probable sentence, it sounds as though, absent mandatory minimums, federal judges tend to sentence lower than guidelines in child porn cases. One of Josh's charges carries a 5 year minimum and the other does not.  If he's able to plead guilty to the one with no minimum and get the other dismissed, he'll probably get 3 or 4 years at most.  This is ultimately why a guilty plea probably makes sense for him. If he opts to go to trial and is found guilty of both charges, he'll get at least 5 years for the count with the minimum plus whatever the judge gives him for the other count.  So possibly double or more what he'd get with a good plea deal. 

In Josh's favor relative to sentencing is the fact that he didn't have as many images as many of some of these others do and the fact that he has no prior convictions.  Not in his favor is the fact that the images were of children under 12.