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[CW: Child Sex Abuse] Josh&Anna 27:How Many Robocalls Did Michelle Make to Warn People about Her Son


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4 minutes ago, lulumama said:

In federal court I believe there is a mandatory minimum of 5 years for this offense.  Of course he has a prior record so the court will take that into account so he will probably get more than that.  It could take up to a year before he is sentenced. It will depend on how he pleads.  He will probably go to a minimum security prison.  

he pled not guilty, but who knows if he'll change that or not

Edited by browncoatslytherin
i can't spell
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1 minute ago, anon710 said:

Of course he has a prior record

But does he? He was a minor when the molestations occurred. He was never charged nor convicted of anything. All there is is a police report. Is that going to be considered a "prior record"?

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14 minutes ago, marmalade said:

Boobchelle denied ALL family members being raided. The quote was brought to my attention earlier today, so it's fresh in my memory. ?

 

Oh, I misread the statement completely then. I read it as the JB and Michelle referring to their own home and their (meaning JB and Michelle's) businesses and not Josh. Then again, Josh's business and living situation are tied to them. Either way they glossed over the situation like it was no big deal. I just looked up the statement and they did deny everything completely. Hopefully, this is the last time JB and Michelle try to cover up another messy situation for Josh. Every time they have it's backfired on them.

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5 minutes ago, lulumama said:

In federal court I believe there is a mandatory minimum of 5 years for this offense.  Of course he has a prior record so the court will take that into account so he will probably get more than that.  It could take up to a year before he is sentenced. It will depend on how he pleads.  He will probably go to a minimum security prison.  

In the last thread, I posted some sentences of men who were convicted in federal court of the same things Josh is charged with.  He's probably looking at 3 - 3.5 years at most if he works a deal.  With possible release for good behavior after he serves 85% of his sentence. 

He almost certainly won't go to a minimum security prison as he will be deemed a sexual offender and they are considered a threat to the public. Medium security is the most likely option.  So bars and barbed wire.  

He doesn't have a record.  He admitted to assaulting five girls, but the statute of limitations was up by the time it all came to light  So I don't think the court will consider this, although I hope I'm wrong.

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So, I just popped on over to Instagram to David and Priscilla Waller's account. I just saw they have limited their comments on some of their photos posted. I'm not sure if this was mentioned in the past threads (this topic is moving like wildfire and it's hard to keep up). It wouldn't surprise if people are commenting and David and Cil are deleting as many as they can. I do feel for David and Priscilla in this situation, this is affecting them as well. I hope they are supporting Anna and that their children weren't involved. 

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I don’t k ow how the classification of offenders in the states work but in my Australian experience many things are taken into account when classifying an inmate to a facility. Josh is a public interest inmate he is a “high profile” case he has a crime against children. These things will initially push up his classo. Depending on length of sentence and the minimum time to serve will also play a role. No known gang afflictions no previous crimes and or offences in Gaol. Also play a role. 

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1 hour ago, HerNameIsBuffy said:

You don't think JB and Michelle knew about the raid when it was all over the news?  They lied and said it never happened.

Do you really believe Josh would have owned up to anyone that he had CP on his computers?  I doubt he even told Boob but if he did I doubt he really told the full truth and Boob certainly would not be telling the whole family... and especially not Jill and Amy.  

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Hey - I finally caught up! By the time I type this I’ll be way behind tho’, apologies for the wall of text I’m about to type.

Those hoping that all minors who’ve had contact w/ Josh be interviewed reminded me of the police report detailing the interviews with the victims back in joshgate1 - my recollection is that it seemed possible that the victims were heavily coached. 

Regarding the questions that have arisen about bail/Pretrial release, I am no expert on Federal criminal law, so I did a little reading on Federal bail out of curiosity. In regards to Josh, I think he is not eligible for release on personal recognizance based on the crimes he’s charged with committing. That leaves release subject to conditions or detention. Since it doesn’t appear that the issue of release/detention was argued at the first appearance, it’s now set for May 5, there can be testimony and evidence at that hearing. The issues would be flight concerns & public safety.

 I’m curious to know where the reference to 3rd party supervision came from - his attorneys or the Judge? If the Judge, I’d be a bit concerned if I were the prosecutor & I wanted Josh to stay in custody. If it came from Josh’s attorneys, I’d assume that’ll be part of their pitch for pretrial release.

Speaking of Josh’s attorneys - do any of them have any experience in criminal law, federal criminal law, tech crimes?  I suspect that the July trial date won’t stick - at a minimum the defense will need to have an expert review the Fed’s discovery regarding the forensic computer investigation. I mean this isn’t defending someone on a shoplifting charge in your local court, this is the Feds & a tech based prosecution.

Regarding the May 5 hearing, the Federal system has 14 enumerated conditions that a Judge/magistrate can impose as part of pretrial release, some examples - third party supervision, seeking/maintaining employment, observing residency, travel, or associational restrictions, avoiding contact with victims/witnesses, regular reporting, obeying a curfew, firearm restrictions, security/bail bond, after hours incarceration, etc.. In addition to those listed the Judge/magistrate can order just about anything else, including electronic monitoring.

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3 minutes ago, JenniferJuniper said:

In the last thread, I posted some sentences of men who were convicted in federal court of the same things Josh is charged with.  He's probably looking at 3 - 3.5 years at most if he works a deal.  With possible release for good behavior after he serves 85% of his sentence. 

He almost certainly won't go to a minimum security prison as he will be deemed a sexual offender and they are considered a threat to the public. Medium security is the most likely option.  So bars and barbed wire.  

He doesn't have a record.  He admitted to assaulting five girls, but the statute of limitations was up by the time it all came to light  So I don't think the court will consider this, although I hope I'm wrong.

Josh is going probably going to work out the best plea deal he can and get sent to a medium security prison. However, I wouldn't rule out minimum just yet (who knows what deal Josh will get and what the judge will take into account). Like you said the court's aren't likely to take into Josh assaulting five girls because the statute of limitations passing and no charges being filed. The court may really have to go off what he has because in the eyes of the legal system he isn't a repeat offender. When in reality, he is.

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39 minutes ago, lulumama said:

Of course he has a prior record so the court will take that into account

What criminal record does he have? Juvenile offense is expunged, I believe. I don't think he's been proven guilty of anything in a court of law. 

 

update: Posted this before I read comments upthread.

Edited by fluffy
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5 minutes ago, NancyDrewFan1989 said:

Josh is going probably going to work out the best plea deal he can and get sent to a medium security prison. However, I wouldn't rule out minimum just yet (who knows what deal Josh will get and what the judge will take into account). Like you said the court's aren't likely to take into Josh assaulting five girls because the statute of limitations passing and no charges being filed. The court may really have to go off what he has because in the eyes of the legal system he isn't a repeat offender. When in reality, he is.

Could the prosecution call any/all of Smuggar's prior victims to the stand and make them tell the jury what happened to them? 

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The molestation took place when he was a juvenile so that wouldn’t be on his record. Ashley Madison scandal was horrible but not illegal. This is really Josh’s first offense as an adult - he has no prior record. 

Edited by viii
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Just now, viii said:

The molestation took place when he was a juvenile so that wouldn’t be on his wrecked. Ashley Madison scandal was horrible but not illegal. This is really Josh’s first offense as an adult - he has no prior record. 

He has no record as a juvenile either.  He was never charged. 

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Mark Salling from Glee was charged with possession of child porn and more than 50,000 images were found. He was granted bail and allowed to stay out on bail after he plead guilty and was awaiting sentencing. It was expected he would receive 4-7 years and register as a sex offender. He killed himself prior to his sentencing hearing so no way of knowing what he would have ultimately received. He is the first person I thought of when the Josh news came out. Not the suicide but the case itself progressing the same way. 

Also, some have mentioned Arkansas law or other state law. This is a federal case, Arkansas sentencing, laws, prisons or whatever are irrelevant to this case. Everything is handled by the Feds under federal law and only involve federal entities. The Feds are hardcore, Josh could only dream of having to go through a state system. There is no guarantee Josh would even be sent to a federal prison in Arkansas. The Feds decide where you go. 

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I can't see Josh not being released pre-trial on possession-only charges.  With some sort of restrictions.  I'll be curious how they deal with the fact that he has six kids at home.  

 

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1 hour ago, QuiverFullofBooks said:

Yes, I know. I was trying to be polite to the poster who said something to the contrary.

ETA: But I’m glad I brought it up, because I didn’t know that Josh had claimed to live in the Springdale house. 

Gah, I’m sorry! I misread and was taking it out of context. ?‍♀️ 

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Just for my personal clarification on a little point - Josh is in custody in AR (not a federal prison) until his bail hearing next week? And his actual criminal hearing is July? So basically in May if the defense can provide proof of a "third party without minors in the home" that Josh would live with, he *may* or may not be granted bail, if if he is that would only apply until July right? 

Would the "third party" requisite automatically eliminate any Duggars from being his babysitter? Or could be it considered an appropriately-arbitrary third party for JB to send Josh to live with, say, newlywed childless Jed/Katey in the car lot house? 

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1 hour ago, socalrules said:

Mark Salling from Glee was charged with possession of child porn and more than 50,000 images were found. He was granted bail and allowed to stay out on bail after he plead guilty and was awaiting sentencing. It was expected he would receive 4-7 years and register as a sex offender. He killed himself prior to his sentencing hearing so no way of knowing what he would have ultimately received. He is the first person I thought of when the Josh news came out. Not the suicide but the case itself progressing the same way. 

Also, some have mentioned Arkansas law or other state law. This is a federal case, Arkansas sentencing, laws, prisons or whatever are irrelevant to this case. Everything is handled by the Feds under federal law and only involve federal entities. The Feds are hardcore, Josh could only dream of having to go through a state system. There is no guarantee Josh would even be sent to a federal prison in Arkansas. The Feds decide where you go. 

Do you think there is a chance the feds would hold Smugsley out of self-harm fear? I know he's been grinning and chuckling every moment there is a camera on him, its kind of hard to read him but I wonder if he'd be a danger to himself right now. 

ETA: I wonder what the aftermath of all of this will be if he is convicted. You're right, he could be sent to a federal prison in New York for all we know, he might not be able to even get regular visits from his own parents if that is the case. 

Edited by nini9
Just wanted to add an additional thought about Josh and the prison system
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1 minute ago, nini9 said:

Do you think there is a chance the feds would hold Smugsley out of self-harm fear? I know he's been grinning and chuckling every moment there is a camera on him, its kind of hard to read him but I wonder if he'd be a danger to himself right now. 

I was thinking the same. Even if he's released on bail, his life will be forever changed. I don't know what kind of bond he has with his kids, but he must feel something for them. Or am I giving him too much credit? But if he's convicted, he won't see his kids for years. 

I wonder how confident he is at the moment. Boob obviously had that fancy St.Louis lawyer on speed dial, so maybe Smuggar had some hope? But maybe he knows deep down that his goose is cooked. 

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3rd party custodian - Legal Answers - Avvo

As other attorneys in this forum have noted, a "third party custodian" is a person who vouches for a defendant in federal court, in order to help the defendant gain release on federal pre-trial supervision while the case is pending. Any citizen can act as a third party custodian if approved by the court, but a court will be most likely to grant pre-trial release to a third party custodian who is willing to allow federal pre-trial officers to visit the home, who does not have a significant criminal history, and who is familiar with the defendant. Third party custodians assume significant responsibilities, and will likely have intrusions on their privacy as a result of agreeing to serve in that capacity (such as home searches during pre-trial supervision and contacts with the federal probation officer). An experienced defense attorney will work with a defendant to determine possible third parties that are suitable, and will work with the custodian to answer any questions or concerns.

 

This is from some legal Q&A website. I can't account for the veracity of the information, but I think it sounds about right. I have no clue what other hoops the custodian would have to jump through due to the kind of charges Josh is facing. Take this for what it is worth. 

 

 

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Here’s the actual quote from Friday.

Quote

Judge Erin L. Wiedemann advised on Friday that “a third-party custodian” appear alongside Duggar at his May hearing. Duggar will also be interviewed.

“I will also advise you that any proposed third-party custodian, it would need to be in a residence, where there are no minors in the home,” the judge said. “So, you all would need to be looking for somebody that will ensure compliance with conditions of release and can ensure to the court that there are no minors in the home, or that would be visiting unsupervised.”

https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/josh-duggar-pleads-not-guilty-in-virtual-hearing-after-arrest/

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3rd party custodian questionnaire.pdf (fd.org)

This is a third party custodian questionaire just for reference. I believe it is for Federal Cases. Warning: it's long.

Spoiler

QUESTIONS FOR THIRD PARTY CUSTODIANS

Client”s name

Third party custodian’s name

INAPPROPRIATE ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS MARKED BY * AUTOMATICALLY DISQUALIFY A PERSON FROM BEING A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN. PLEASE FIND AND PREPARE SOMEONE TO REPLACE THEM. I

n federal court, unlike state court, a person is detained (kept in jail) if the government moves for detention, unless the judge after a court hearing releases the person on certain conditions. These conditions are called conditions of release. In almost all cases the judge will not consider releasing the person unless there is a third party custodian with whom the defendant can live. The following is information that the defense attorney and you must know before you can be considered as a third party custodian.

1. Do you understand that the judge sets the conditions of release and that if the defendant does not comply with the conditions of release, the defendant will be immediately arrested?

2. Do you understand that as third party custodian it is your duty to call the U.S. Probation Office and immediately report any violation of the conditions of release? 

3. Would you call and report any violation even if it meant the defendant would be immediately arrested? IF THE ANSWER IS “NO”, THE PERSON IS NOT QUALIFIED TO BE A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN.

*4. Are you willing to serve as third party custodian?

5. Do you understand that to qualify as third party custodian you will have to testify in court under oath and that you will be cross-examined by the government and the judge?

6. How long have you known the defendant? How do you know the defendant? Relative? Work? School?

7. Where do you live? Is it a house, apartment or trailer?

8. Who else lives there? What are their ages? What is the relationship between the defendant and these people? What is the relationship between you and these people?

9. Is there room for the defendant to stay with you?

10. Has the defendant ever stayed with you before? When? For how long?

11. The defendant is charged with an offense that occurred on___________ Was the defendant living with you at this time?

12. Are the other people who live with you willing to have the defendant stay there?

*13. Are there any firearms or other weapons where you live? If there are, can you move them to another location immediately? IF THE PERSON REFUSES TO REMOVE THE FIREARM OR WEAPON, THE PERSON IS NOT QUALIFIED TO BE A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN.

14. Are there any controlled substances (drugs or prescription drugs) where you live?

15. Is there a land line telephone where you live? If there is, what is the phone number? If the judge orders electronic monitoring, you would have to disconnect all features like call waiting from your phone. Are you willing to do this?

16. Is there internet access where you live?

17. Do you work? Where? What are your hours? When you are at work, who would be with the defendant? Does your spouse work? If so, what days and hours does your spouse work?

18. Do you have a valid driver’s license? Do you have a car?

*19. Other than minor traffic violations, what if anything have you ever been convicted of? This includes misdemeanors and felonies, even if you were put on probation. Are you now on probation, parole or supervised release, even if it is unsupervised? Other than minor traffic violations, what if anything have the other people living with you ever been convicted of? This includes misdemeanors and felonies. The U.S. Probation office will run an interstate record check on you. IF THE PERSON HAS A FELONY CONVICTION, HE OR SHE IS NOT QUALIFIED TO BE A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN..

20. Have you ever failed to appear for a court appearance? If so, why?

21. Are you aware of the defendant’s prior convictions?

22. Are you aware of what the defendant is charged with?

*23. Have you talked to the defendant about these charges? Has the defendant made any statement to you about these charges? IF THE DEFENDANT HAS MADE INCRIMINATING STATEMENTS TO THE PERSON, HE OR SHE IS NOT QUALIFIED TO BE A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN..

24. What is your date of birth?

25. What is your social security number? This information will not be given to anyone. It is needed to run a criminal record check, which the court requires. _______________________ 26. Are you a U.S. citizen? COURT STARTS AT _____ am ON _______________. IF YOU ARE NOT AT THE COURTROOM AT LEAST ONE HOUR BEFORE COURT STARTS, YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO QUALIFY AS A THIRD PARTY CUSTODIAN. THE FEDERAL COURTHOUSE IS LOCATED AT 310 NEW BERN AVENUE IN RALEIGH

Date

 

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I think it would be very tricky for any of the Howlers to be Josh's third party custodian.

John can't do it as he has Grace.  The oldest child-free brother is Jed.  The age gap between Jed and Josh is such that Josh would have been in a position of power over him and in many ways been a responsible adult who Jed had to obey.  Switching the power balance around with Jed having to enforce laws would be incredibly hard for them.

The other alternative is Jana who is close enough in age to have grown up not obeying Josh and standing up to and bickering with him.  She and John are probably the best placed siblings to be able to stand up to Josh and monitor his behaviour. But that would mean the Duggar's loose her help in the house and with the children and grandchildren.

If Jana's near marriage, then they could rush that through and Josh could go to her and new husband.  He'll be sentenced before they would have children, but I don't think there's time to get that sorted before 5th of May and they'd sacrifice a big payout from a big Jana wedding. (Despite Josh's actions, I think that Jana could still get at least a big people spread for a wedding if she leaves it a few months).

It may be that the 3rd party person isn't a Duggar.  All those kids and none of them able to mind big brother safely.

 

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15 minutes ago, imokit said:

I think it would be very tricky for any of the Howlers to be Josh's third party custodian.

John can't do it as he has Grace.  The oldest child-free brother is Jed.  The age gap between Jed and Josh is such that Josh would have been in a position of power over him and in many ways been a responsible adult who Jed had to obey.  Switching the power balance around with Jed having to enforce laws would be incredibly hard for them.

The other alternative is Jana who is close enough in age to have grown up not obeying Josh and standing up to and bickering with him.  She and John are probably the best placed siblings to be able to stand up to Josh and monitor his behaviour. But that would mean the Duggar's loose her help in the house and with the children and grandchildren.

If Jana's near marriage, then they could rush that through and Josh could go to her and new husband.  He'll be sentenced before they would have children, but I don't think there's time to get that sorted before 5th of May and they'd sacrifice a big payout from a big Jana wedding. (Despite Josh's actions, I think that Jana could still get at least a big people spread for a wedding if she leaves it a few months).

It may be that the 3rd party person isn't a Duggar.  All those kids and none of them able to mind big brother safely.

 

would it be possible for the court to appoint someone?

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