2020 Election Results 5: The Nightmare Is Over (For now)

[Destiny]

Dear gods in their heavens, why do we need yet another thread? Continued from here: 

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Destiny

[SeekingAdventure]

that might be a stupid question, but everybody is poking fun at Nevada working slow.. has anything happened in NC in the last few days? I know that it's not as critically watched as other states, but I feel it has literally been stuck at the same place since early Wednesday morning (here in Europe, so Tuesday night).

it's still 95%, has been for a few days now.. is there something stopping them from giving out news?! I'm not american, so maybe I just missed something, as clearly, NC has not been on the Radar as much as AZ, NV, GA and PA, but I want to know?

[onekidanddone]

Warning!!!!!!! Song may cause your phone to be thrown across the room. Don’t say I didn’t warn ‘ya

Spoiler

 

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by onekidanddone

[Destiny]

17 minutes ago, SeekingAdventure said:

that might be a stupid question, but everybody is poking fun at Nevada working slow.. has anything happened in NC in the last few days? I know that it's not as critically watched as other states, but I feel it has literally been stuck at the same place since early Wednesday morning (here in Europe, so Tuesday night).

it's still 95%, has been for a few days now.. is there something stopping them from giving out news?! I'm not american, so maybe I just missed something, as clearly, NC has not been on the Radar as much as AZ, NV, GA and PA, but I want to know?

I read something that said NC has counted everything they had and wouldn't update numbers until their absentee deadline passes on the 12th. I can't remember where I got that to link you though. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Destiny

[SeekingAdventure]

1 minute ago, Destiny said:

I read something that said NC has counted everything they had and wouldn't update numbers until their absentee deadline passes on the 12th. I can't remember where to link you though. 

ah ok, well that clears it up then.. I was just wondering if I had missed something

[Destiny]

CNN just switched from their B-squad anchors (weekend and midday people) to Wolf Blitzer. I wonder if they think a call is imminent? 

Y'all, I just want this fucking OVER. 

[Snarkasarus Rex]

3 minutes ago, Destiny said:

I read something that said NC has counted everything they had and wouldn't update numbers until their absentee deadline passes on the 12th. I can't remember where to link you though. 

Yes, this is correct. Ballots can show up as late as the 12th as long as they were postmarked by the 3rd. So they will not update until the 13th at the earliest. There are as many as 117K outstanding ballots, but realistically only a fraction of those will show up in the eventual total. 

[Destiny]

Interesting, from 538:

Spoiler

NATE SILVER

NOV. 7, 9:39 AM

So, When Will We Get A Projected Winner?

Why hasn’t Biden been projected as the winner of the 2020 presidential election by the Associated Press, the major networks — including our colleagues at ABC News — The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, etc. yet?

For better or worse, that’s the main question of the day. There’s less suspense about the actual outcome and more about when — and we do think it’s a matter of “when” and not “if” — projections will be made as data trickles in from Pennsylvania and other states.

It’s a story that’s both interesting and hard for FiveThirtyEight to cover. On the one hand, you’d think we’re well-suited to the story, as we have our own views of what the numbers look like and do plenty of media criticism and analysis. 

On the other hand, we’re a part of ABC News. We have a little bit of an additional sense of some things. But much less than you’d think as, by design, decision desks are largely walled off from their news organizations. We do know that the people at these decision desks are incredibly smart, dedicated professionals. Some of the theories floating around, for example, that networks aren’t projecting a winner out of deference to Trump are … really stupid.

Still, it can be a little bit awkward when, essentially, you’re reporting out a story in which the company you work for is (along with the other networks) a major player. We’re doing the best we can under the circumstances.

Anyway, I want to be clear that the following point just comes from research I’ve done on my own, although I think it’s consistent with the behavior we’ve seen from the decision desks so far. It comes from this AP explainer on when they call races:

In several states, recounts are mandated if the margin between the top two candidates falls inside a set range established by law. AP will not call a race if the margin is within such a mandatory recount range — or if it could fall into that range as final votes are counted.

In some states, recounts may be requested if the margin falls inside of a set range. In others, candidates can request a recount regardless of the margin between the top two candidates. In these states, AP will not call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percentage points or less, or if the margin could fall inside that range once all ballots cast are counted.

AP may call the race if the trailing candidate confirms they will not seek a recount or if the candidate publicly concedes the election.

Emphasis mine. The AP will not call a race if the margin falls within the mandatory recount range or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted. That’s pertinent in Pennsylvania, for instance, where the recount threshold is 0.5 percent. Currently, Biden leads by 0.43 percentage points in Pennsylvania as additional mail ballots are counted. That’s going to keep growing — probably to around 1 percent — as additional ballots are counted.

So could the race get called when Biden’s lead hits 0.5 percent? Actually, I think that’s decently likely, at least for some of the decision desks (keep in mind that not everyone necessarily uses the AP’s exact standards). But there is also that second provision: “or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted.” So in theory, the AP would have to be satisfied that not only will Biden maintain his lead but also that he’ll maintain a lead of 0.5 percentage points once provisional ballots are counted.

That is a higher standard. I’d consider it essentially certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania, barring unexpected legal challenges. Is it also essentially certain that he’ll win by 0.5 percentage points or more? I think you could argue the point based on those provisional ballots, but I’d probably come down on the side of “yes” on that question too, at least to the standards that decision desks usually use. Nonetheless, 0.5 percent is a higher threshold than one vote. And if we’re still waiting for calls throughout the day, that may be the reason why depending on what each network’s policy is and how they’re interpreting it.

OT: I wish I could link to their live blog stuff easier.

3 minutes ago, Snarkasarus Rex said:

Yes, this is correct. Ballots can show up as late as the 12th as long as they were postmarked by the 3rd. So they will not update until the 13th at the earliest. There are as many as 117K outstanding ballots, but realistically only a fraction of those will show up in the eventual total. 

Yeah. It's my understanding that NC is a lost cause so I haven't paid much attention to it. Based on numbers we have, that seems accurate. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Destiny

[FiveAcres]

4 minutes ago, Destiny said:

Interesting, from 538:

  Hide contents

NATE SILVER

NOV. 7, 9:39 AM

So, When Will We Get A Projected Winner?

Why hasn’t Biden been projected as the winner of the 2020 presidential election by the Associated Press, the major networks — including our colleagues at ABC News — The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, etc. yet?

For better or worse, that’s the main question of the day. There’s less suspense about the actual outcome and more about when — and we do think it’s a matter of “when” and not “if” — projections will be made as data trickles in from Pennsylvania and other states.

It’s a story that’s both interesting and hard for FiveThirtyEight to cover. On the one hand, you’d think we’re well-suited to the story, as we have our own views of what the numbers look like and do plenty of media criticism and analysis. 

On the other hand, we’re a part of ABC News. We have a little bit of an additional sense of some things. But much less than you’d think as, by design, decision desks are largely walled off from their news organizations. We do know that the people at these decision desks are incredibly smart, dedicated professionals. Some of the theories floating around, for example, that networks aren’t projecting a winner out of deference to Trump are … really stupid.

Still, it can be a little bit awkward when, essentially, you’re reporting out a story in which the company you work for is (along with the other networks) a major player. We’re doing the best we can under the circumstances.

Anyway, I want to be clear that the following point just comes from research I’ve done on my own, although I think it’s consistent with the behavior we’ve seen from the decision desks so far. It comes from this AP explainer on when they call races:

In several states, recounts are mandated if the margin between the top two candidates falls inside a set range established by law. AP will not call a race if the margin is within such a mandatory recount range — or if it could fall into that range as final votes are counted.

In some states, recounts may be requested if the margin falls inside of a set range. In others, candidates can request a recount regardless of the margin between the top two candidates. In these states, AP will not call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percentage points or less, or if the margin could fall inside that range once all ballots cast are counted.

AP may call the race if the trailing candidate confirms they will not seek a recount or if the candidate publicly concedes the election.

Emphasis mine. The AP will not call a race if the margin falls within the mandatory recount range or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted. That’s pertinent in Pennsylvania, for instance, where the recount threshold is 0.5 percent. Currently, Biden leads by 0.43 percentage points in Pennsylvania as additional mail ballots are counted. That’s going to keep growing — probably to around 1 percent — as additional ballots are counted.

So could the race get called when Biden’s lead hits 0.5 percent? Actually, I think that’s decently likely, at least for some of the decision desks (keep in mind that not everyone necessarily uses the AP’s exact standards). But there is also that second provision: “or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted.” So in theory, the AP would have to be satisfied that not only will Biden maintain his lead but also that he’ll maintain a lead of 0.5 percentage points once provisional ballots are counted.

That is a higher standard. I’d consider it essentially certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania, barring unexpected legal challenges. Is it also essentially certain that he’ll win by 0.5 percentage points or more? I think you could argue the point based on those provisional ballots, but I’d probably come down on the side of “yes” on that question too, at least to the standards that decision desks usually use. Nonetheless, 0.5 percent is a higher threshold than one vote. And if we’re still waiting for calls throughout the day, that may be the reason why depending on what each network’s policy is and how they’re interpreting it.

OT: I wish I could link to their live blog stuff easier.

Thank you for providing this explanation from Nate Silver. It makes sense. What I am fairly certain doesn't make sense is that the news organizations are trying to draw it out to increase ratings. I am sure their staff is just as tired of the wait as everyone else. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by FiveAcres
correcting overuse of commas

[Destiny]

Jake Tapper just said we should have a resolution today. He just came in too, and not on the top of the hour. I'm betting they think a call is imminent at CNN.

[HerNameIsBuffy]

They just admitted on CNN that because Trump is attacking the process they are being cautious about calling the remaining states and won't do it until it's statistically impossible for him to come back.

It's gonna be a while.

[onekidanddone]

Just now, Destiny said:

Jake Tapper just said we should have a resolution today. He just came in too, and not on the top of the hour. I'm betting they think a call is imminent at CNN.

Yea, but the media can call it anything they like that doesn’t make it true. The hold up are the states

 

 

 

 

 

[Destiny]

4 minutes ago, HerNameIsBuffy said:

They just admitted on CNN that because Trump is attacking the process they are being cautious about calling the remaining states and won't do it until it's statistically impossible for him to come back.

It's gonna be a while.

The way I interpret that is they think the PA numbers will get there in the near future though, especially with Jake sounding pretty bullish on something being imminent. 

3 minutes ago, onekidanddone said:

Yea, but the media can call it anything they like that doesn’t make it true. The hold up are the states

No argument whatsoever on that. Let's be real though, this is a done deal, they are just waiting for the numbers to hit whatever standards they have set for a call, assuming the states do enough counting to get there which is sounding somewhat likely for today. 

Did twitter delete some Menace tweets? The morning poop tweet storm was really subdued today and the one I did see has a twitter warning. 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Destiny

[Snarkasarus Rex]

Yeah, I think once the metro counties are done or close to done counting, they’ll call it. Most of the outstanding ballots are in those areas, and Trump won’t be able to catch up mathematically. The delayed ballots will also be moot too, so...

[FiveAcres]

Has this thread actually overtaken the JRod thread in popularity?

Time to brew some Tension Tamer tea and dive back into Time Team videos.

[Hane]

Just popping in to confess that I only just now looked up the election results for my town. I’m overjoyed to report that all our local state rep and senatorial positions have stayed blue, as have our US congressional seats!

Edited November 7, 2020 by Hane

[HerNameIsBuffy]

Walking into Aldi now but wanted to drop this here.

 

[Destiny]

Someone's watching TV and it's making him mad! 

[GreyhoundFan]

4 minutes ago, Destiny said:

Someone's watching TV and it's making him mad! 

I picture him stomping his feet while shouting this. His nannies need to add some Xanax to his Diet Coke.

[Destiny]

1 minute ago, GreyhoundFan said:

I picture him stomping his feet while shouting this. His nannies need to add some Xanax to his Diet Coke.

And then give me a damn Xanax. Y'all, my anxiety levels have been off the damn charts this week. 

[GreyhoundFan]

Wow

 

[SeekingAdventure]

and change his diapers. he's full of shit.. ?

[GreyhoundFan]

Candace says that she "had never heard so many words to accomplish saying absolutely nothing".  Um, I'm confused, hasn't she listened to Twitler for the last four years?

 

[fraurosena]

They're burying the evidence?

[GreyhoundFan]

Interesting: