Government Response to Coronavirus 3: Locked Down

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[clueliss]

West Virginia orders stay at home

The US Supremes are holding meetings via teleconference (proving they're more intelligent than Congress)

Kansas officially limits gatherings to less than 10 people.  (I'll forgive Gov Kelly for that delay since she had to deal with idiot state legislators last week)

Hanes to make cloth masks.  

Quote

37 min ago

Clothing and textile manufacturers will deliver face masks to US government this week

From CNN's Katelyn Polantz

A group of clothing and textile manufacturers, including Hanes, are planning to deliver their first shipments of three-ply face masks to the federal government by midweek to help health care workers respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

The largest US yarn spinner, Parkdale Inc., and six other companies planned to begin production of the masks on Monday, according to the National Council of Textile Organizations.

The group aims to make up to 10 million masks a week in the US and Central America about a month from now. The coalition of companies, which also includes Fruit of the Loom, Los Angeles Apparel and American Giant, worked with the White House to set up the increased production, the industry group's statement said. 

The masks will be sent directly to the federal government, a spokesperson for Hanes said.

Boris is telling folks to stay at home and UK is telling nationals abroad to return 
 

Quote

Britain advises all UK nationals abroad to return now

From CNN's Lindsay Isaac

Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has advised all British travelers abroad to return now.

In a statement, Raab warned international travel is becoming highly limited with the further closure of air routes, land borders and domestic restrictions introduced daily.

“We are strongly urging UK travellers overseas to return home now where and while there are still commercial routes to do so. Around the world, more airlines are suspending flights and more airports are closing, some without any notice. Where commercial routes don’t exist, our staff are working round the clock to give advice and support to UK nationals. If you are on holiday abroad the time to come home is now while you still can," he said.

The UK government is working with airlines to keep routes open and is calling for international action to keep air routes open for a sufficient period of time to enable international travelers to return on commercial flights.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

It's nice that companies are stepping up, but it's sad that they have to do so, given that Twitler and his crew are so incompetent:

 

[clueliss]

Holy Moly Missouri - and STL (city) reported first death (so that's at least 4) (woman in her 30s) (and great - community spread - lovely)

 - an

[Italiangirl]

for the second consecutive day today the count of new cases has slow down here, the worst hit region is down to 5.7% of new infection on a daily basis...the national difference with esterday is not much but is still going down and is a very good news

Edited March 23, 2020 by Italiangirl
put the chart and change tomorrow to today. i'm tired sorry

[Cartmann99]

7 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Trump said in a late-night tweet Sunday written in capital letters. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

Translation: I'm tired of this virus shit, and I want to play golf without anybody giving me the stink eye.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[clueliss]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

1 hour ago, Cartmann99 said:

Translation: I'm tired of this virus shit, and I want to play golf without anybody giving me the stink eye.

I think he's bored, but I also think he's unhappy because his pockets aren't being lined enough: "Before Trump called for reevaluating lockdowns, they shuttered six of his top-earning clubs and resorts"

Quote

President Trump’s private business has shut down six of its top seven revenue-producing clubs and hotels because of restrictions meant to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, potentially depriving Trump’s company of millions of dollars in revenue.

Those closures come as Trump is considering easing restrictions on movement sooner than federal public health experts recommend, in the name of reducing the virus’s economic damage.

In a tweet late Sunday, Trump said the measures could be lifted as soon as March 30. “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” he wrote on Twitter.

In his unprecedented dual role as president and owner of a sprawling business, Trump is facing dual crises caused by the coronavirus. As he is trying to manage the pandemic from the White House, limiting its casualties as well as the economic fallout, his company is also navigating a major threat to the hospitality industry.

That threatens to pull Trump in opposite directions, because the strategies that many scientists believe will help lessen the public emergency — like strict, long-lasting restrictions on movement — could deepen the short-term problems of Trump’s private business, by keeping doors shut and customers away.

The White House and the Trump Organization did not respond to questions Monday.

The company, which Trump says is run day-to-day by his sons Eric and Don Jr., has not said whether it would apply for a bailout of the hotel industry, if Congress created one.

Trump has not, either. On Sunday, he was asked if his business would abstain from any federal bailout. He did not give a clear answer. “Everything’s changing, just so you understand, it’s all changing,” he said. “But I have no idea.”

Trump’s business includes some commercial office buildings, which have long-term leases and should not be hurt as immediately by the virus. But he is also heavily invested in the hotel business, with 11 hotels around the world.

That business needs new people walking in the door every day, to eat and stay. And by keeping people away, the coronavirus has brought that industry its worst downturn in recent history.

“The data is bad. And we haven’t seen the worst of it yet,” said Jan Freitag, a senior vice president with the firm STR, which analyzes hotel industry data. He noted that the damage to the industry is being caused by the lockdowns and the fear of the virus. “What we’re seeing here is a rapid descent that’s going to last. So it’s going to be a little bit of a worst-case combination of post-9/11 and [the financial crisis of] 2009.”

So far, the Trump Organization has closed hotels in Las Vegas; Doral, Fla.; Ireland; and Turnberry, Scotland — as well as the Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida and a golf club in Bedminster, N.J. Many of the clubs closed because they had to, under local orders. Others closed on their own, following strong guidance or recommendations from local officials.

Those are six of Trump’s top seven revenue-producing clubs and hotels, bringing in about $174 million total per year, according to Trump’s most recent financial disclosures. That works out to $478,000 per day — revenue that is likely to be sharply reduced with the clubs shuttered. The disclosures provide self-reported revenue figures but not profits.

Another of Trump’s golf clubs, in Aberdeen, Scotland, appeared likely to shut down soon, after an order from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that “nonessential” shops should close and that people should leave home only to buy food, buy medicine or exercise alone.

Even the Trump properties that remain open have been sharply affected: In Chicago, New York and Washington, the restaurants have closed, cutting off a key source of revenue.

On Monday, the managing director of the Trump hotel in Washington, Mickael Damelincourt, sought to find humor in the situation — posting a photo on Twitter that showed him and the chef of the hotel’s restaurant, BLT Prime. They were standing six feet apart, at the door to the empty steakhouse. “Working safely on [the hotel’s] next chapter,” he wrote.

There is also a BLT Prime in Trump’s Doral resort, where restaurants closed last week to comply with lockdown orders. The steakhouse told the state of Florida in a public filing that its entire 98-person workforce — six bartenders, 16 bussers, 24 captains, eight hosts, six managers, eight runners, four chefs, five dishwashers, 18 line cooks and three pastry chefs — had all been laid off.

“These [layoffs] are anticipated to be temporary,” BLT Prime told the state. “However, unfortunately, at this time, we cannot predict when the restaurant will reopen.”

In addition, 160 people have been laid off at Trump’s D.C. hotel, at least 51 laid off at Trump’s New York hotel and an unknown number laid off at Trump’s Las Vegas hotel, according to people familiar with those properties.

Three of Trump’s hotels — in Doral, Chicago and Washington — have outstanding loans from Deutsche Bank that originally totaled more than $300 million. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, all three reported lagging behind their peers in occupancy and revenue, struggles that the company’s representatives blamed, in one way or another, on Trump’s political rise.

In Chicago, the city has begun a program to use some now-empty hotel rooms to house people who have the virus but do not need hospital care, as well as people awaiting virus test results. That effort will be a lifeline for some hotels, with the city paying about $175 per night, the mayor’s office said.

The Trump hotel in downtown Chicago is not part of the program “at this time,” a spokesman for Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) said Monday.

If Trump did loosen restrictions on movement in the name of restarting the U.S. economy, that would probably increase the number of people staying in hotels, said Freitag, the hotel industry analyst from STR.

But, Freitag said, it would not be likely to change very much, since fear of the virus would keep many people from traveling anyway.

“If people are on the roads, and the virus continues to spread, you basically have a two-class society, right? The people who had it, and the people who don’t have it,” Freitag said. “It’s going to be hard to convince those who haven’t had the virus to get back on the road.”

 

[CTRLZero]

Governor Inslee finally issued a statewide "Stay at Home" order for Washington state.  He said not enough people were voluntarily behaving responsibly.  It is supposed to last for a  minimum of two weeks. 

[clueliss]

5th death in Missouri, this one in Springfield.  Woman in her 80s from a care facility 

 

Yet another cruise ship issue 

 

[Smee]

Are others using this site to track the global picture? I’ve found it helpful for that snapshot of what things are like in lots of different countries. Worldwide, we crossed the 100 000 people recovered mark today. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

What I find confusing right now is the change in these percentages:

A few days ago, it had serious/critical cases at about 7% and deaths at 8%. But there’s now a massive difference between the two - why? Is it a timing thing, where a much higher proportion of reported cases are still in the early stages and will get much more serious in a week’s time? Is it a sudden spike in deaths because Italy’s healthcare system was overwhelmed and more people died that perhaps could have been saved, both suddenly taking a big chunk of people out of the “currently affected” critical side and into the “resolved” cases side? Is it because reported numbers of cases continue to skyrocket but the people who DO survive stay sick for a long period of time whereas those who die do so relatively soon after testing positive? Are recovered cases being underreported and remain “active” because governments and health systems are too overwhelmed to make tracking and reporting those cases a priority?

Of course, insufficient testing and asymptomatic cases mean both sets of numbers are inaccurate. But there’s such a big difference between them and it makes me nervous.

[elliha]

3 hours ago, Smee said:

Are others using this site to track the global picture? I’ve found it helpful for that snapshot of what things are like in lots of different countries. Worldwide, we crossed the 100 000 people recovered mark today. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

What I find confusing right now is the change in these percentages:

A few days ago, it had serious/critical cases at about 7% and deaths at 8%. But there’s now a massive difference between the two - why? Is it a timing thing, where a much higher proportion of reported cases are still in the early stages and will get much more serious in a week’s time? Is it a sudden spike in deaths because Italy’s healthcare system was overwhelmed and more people died that perhaps could have been saved, both suddenly taking a big chunk of people out of the “currently affected” critical side and into the “resolved” cases side? Is it because reported numbers of cases continue to skyrocket but the people who DO survive stay sick for a long period of time whereas those who die do so relatively soon after testing positive? Are recovered cases being underreported and remain “active” because governments and health systems are too overwhelmed to make tracking and reporting those cases a priority?

Of course, insufficient testing and asymptomatic cases mean both sets of numbers are inaccurate. But there’s such a big difference between them and it makes me nervous.

Mortaility rates are expected to be pretty low compared to what we see now since those with a mild case either don't know they are sick or just recover at home. With more known cases we will see a more true representation of the real mortality even in the official numbers. With de development of easy antibody tests we will be able to see just how many people did have corona or not. In populations with higher testing rates mortality is around 0.7%. 

Also, many countries do not report recoveries actively, Sweden has said that this is not a priority, known infections and death rates are prioritized. Most countries probably have more recovered than we can see for this reason. Also, mild cases might not go to check ups afterwards either and not all countries will force them to do so.

[Exchange Atheist]

3 hours ago, Smee said:

A few days ago, it had serious/critical cases at about 7% and deaths at 8%. But there’s now a massive difference between the two - why? Is it a timing thing, where a much higher proportion of reported cases are still in the early stages and will get much more serious in a week’s time? Is it a sudden spike in deaths because Italy’s healthcare system was overwhelmed and more people died that perhaps could have been saved, both suddenly taking a big chunk of people out of the “currently affected” critical side and into the “resolved” cases side? Is it because reported numbers of cases continue to skyrocket but the people who DO survive stay sick for a long period of time whereas those who die do so relatively soon after testing positive? Are recovered cases being underreported and remain “active” because governments and health systems are too overwhelmed to make tracking and reporting those cases a priority?

It’s most likely a mixture of all these factors. Especially under reporting — not all countries report more than new infections and deaths. I know that we have no official statistics on recovered nor critical cases in Germany, and I’m fairly sure we’re not the only country with that issue. On the other hand we have countries like Italy which report more deaths than other countries would (I read that they count everybody who had Covid and died, even if the disease wasn’t necessarily the cause of death). So in the stats on worldometer, critical cases are underrepresented (they’re probably closer to 20%) and a disproportionate amount of closed cases is listed as deaths (I have no idea what would be a realistic number for those).

[elliha]

Sweden's death rates came up to 33 before the end of yesterday. Six out of the total deaths are connected to an outbreak in the Somali community in Stockholm. This group often have a higher rate of people who are not speaking Swedish and a higher rate of people with no or little schooling which means that the news of the corona virus has not spread the same way as in many other immigrant groups. Somali speaking doctors are now trying to get through to their community about how to behave in case of an infection (it is normal in Somali culture to visit the sick for example and many people in this group live in a mixed setting with young and old which is rare in the greater Swedish society) and how to prevent getting sick. I hope Somali organisations and teachers might help too to spread the word. In the neighborhood I live in there are plenty of immigrant groups but I see no signs of people being worse at keeping to regulations here than in the greater Swedish society but I am thinking that the fact that the school has given plenty of information in at least three languages about corona virus might have helped and also links to further information in other languages on the web in their official letters might have helped. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by elliha

[Smee]

Australia’s cases now over 2100 - I think I commented when it crossed 1000 and that was two days ago. This means our trajectory is getting worse. To get from 500 to 1000 took 4 days, but now we’ve more than doubled in 2.

3 out of our 7 states and territories have explicitly told parents not to send their kids to school (although schools remain open for kids of health workers and other essential workers), and we’re at “stage one” of shutting down stuff like pubs and  gyms, limiting restaurants to takeaway. But the effects of anything we do now won’t be seen for weeks, which means our doubling numbers now are likely to continue for some time. It also means a week ago when people were yelling at ScoMo to shut down NOW his “measured response” has/will cost us. It’s going to come down to how the health systems will cope.

 

[Italiangirl]

Yes we choose to ascribe all those who died with the coronavirus as death because of the virus, part of the reson is that yes people where already sick before catching the virus but they was stable, or at least they was manging their illness, the virus has been like the final push who overcome the sistem/body and cause the death, instead other countries as Germany have choose to just declare as virus death those who died because of the virus. I see the validity of both the ways, but I think is better to ascribe all the death caused by the virus even those who where already hill like oncologic patients because who can say if they would have survived without the virus? Maybe they will have lived for another 3, 4, 5 months maybe a year who knows? 

[clueliss]

The numbers in the US are wonky.  We don’t know the true denominator and testing of those who were positive and healthy or mild cases is not a priority because of the entire not enough tests debacle.

[formergothardite]

10 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

I think he's bored, but I also think he's unhappy because his pockets aren't being lined enough:

He is bored, he wants to play golf, he is angry he isn't making the money he thinks he should make and on top of all this he can't even hold a rally. Trump lives for standing in front of crowds of people. He needs these rallies to keep him motivated and now he is looking at months leading up to the election with not a single rally. He is also having to actually go out in front of the press each day which is more work than he is used to. 

I don't think Trump will quit but I bet managing his temper tantrums about this is a full time job. 

[SassyPants]

58 minutes ago, formergothardite said:

He is bored, he wants to play golf, he is angry he isn't making the money he thinks he should make and on top of all this he can't even hold a rally. Trump lives for standing in front of crowds of people. He needs these rallies to keep him motivated and now he is looking at months leading up to the election with not a single rally. He is also having to actually go out in front of the press each day which is more work than he is used to. 

I don't think Trump will quit but I bet managing his temper tantrums about this is a full time job. 

He is using those covid updates/press conferences as mini rallies, and the more time goes on and as we get closer to the election, the more asinine Trump’s words are likely to become. He is feeding his base. Is it working?

[GreyhoundFan]

From a couple of medical professionals: "Trump’s not a doctor. He’s only playing one on TV."

Spoiler

Ezekiel J. Emanuel is the chairman of the department of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, a member of Joe Biden’s public health advisory committee and the author of the forthcoming book “Which Country Has the World’s Best Health Care?” Vinay Prasad is associate professor of medicine at the Oregon Health and Science University and author of “Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People with Cancer.”

President Trump has been promoting chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, as “a game changer” in combating the coronavirus, perhaps in combination with the antibiotic Azithromycin. “As the expression goes, ‘What do we have to lose?’ ” Trump asked during Saturday’s media briefing. The answer is: a lot. Experience teaches that promoting untested drugs in this way is irresponsible patient care, sloppy science and dangerous public policy.

It is tempting to ask, as Trump suggests, whether the rigors of scientific inquiry are too demanding in the midst of a pandemic, a luxury of proof the country can’t afford. But laboratory studies and anecdotal treatment of individuals are notoriously unreliable at judging what truly saves lives. Indeed, just last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, we learned that one suggested combination that worked against SARS — lopinavir-ritonavir — does not help treat, much less cure coronavirus.

For patients infected with the coronavirus, particularly those whose condition is worsening, it is a natural human reaction to try something, anything. Unfortunately, this impulse is misguided. Indeed, these “what do we have to lose?” treatments can be very dangerous to individuals and the public health showing that we do have something to lose. Cancer, the oldest malady, offers useful guidance on covid-19, the youngest disease on Earth.

When it comes to cancer drugs, time and again, we have seen that drugs that might help, that should help, actually hurt. For instance, a drug called bevacizumab, better known as Avastin, was once highly promising for breast cancer. The Food and Drug Administration approved it without evidence that it saved lives. It was then rigorously tested in at least three randomized controlled trials — and was shown to make dying cancer patients worse. Those tested suffered increased rates of dangerously high blood pressure, heart failure and nerve damage — and gained no prolonged survival, much less a cure. This prompted the FDA to revoke its use in breast cancer. Plenty of other cancer drugs, such as olaratumab, a drug to combat sarcoma, have been withdrawn from the market as the initial promise from laboratory data, animal studies and a preliminary experiment vanished when a careful trial found the drug worsened the last few months of desperate patients’ lives — producing nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and sores in the mouth, but no increase in longevity.

When it comes to covid-19, physicians, out of desperation, are giving several drugs to patients all at once. Some people recover, and some do not, but the consequence of this kitchen-sink approach is that we don’t know which, if any, of these drugs help or hurt. As immunologist Anthony S. Fauci explained, “at the end of the day, if you’ve given a lot of stuff to people. . . . You don’t know what works. . . . It may have satisfied your humanitarian instincts of giving something to someone when there’s no proven therapy, but you’ve in some respects done a disservice.”

Indeed, unpredictable harms may be unleashed when you combine drugs in people. Already, some nations have reported a rise in patients presenting with chloroquine poisoning. Shortages of chloroquine and another drug promoted by Trump, hydroxychloroquine, threaten the ability of people with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis to obtain these medications.

There is also the problem of fairness in accessing these treatments. Many are not available in the United States or are extremely expensive. Tocilizumab, an immunosuppressant that is being tested for effectiveness against covid-19, costs several thousand dollars per dose. Without FDA approval, only the rich may obtain these drugs, or those receiving care in resource-rich hospitals. Others may use their wealth and connections to obtain promising drugs from foreign countries. Favipiravir, a drug used to treat new strains of influenza, is not available in the United States but only in Japan. The rich have found ways to get the limited supply.

Finally, there is a huge opportunity cost to the “What do I have to lose?” approach. Compassionate use of medications interferes with conducting research. Every person taking chloroquine or some other drug secretly, quietly and outside of a trial is someone’s whose information is being lost and not contributing to our collective knowledge of whether it works. We saw this, too, in cancer medicine. During the 1990s, more than 40,000 women underwent bone marrow transplantation for breast cancer — then, like chloroquine, a highly promising intervention touted as giving hope to desperately ill women. As a result, the vast majority of breast cancer patients, more than 75 percent, received the bone marrow transplantation outside of a research study and delayed completion of necessary trials. Eventually, after many years delay because of the transplants performed outside of research, that treatment was found to inflict serious and even fatal toxicities, without prolonging life.

When it comes to fearsome, fatal conditions, it is human nature to try something because it should help, because it might help, because it must help, or because it couldn’t hurt. But often it does harm people and our quest for a real cure. The best thing we can do in any plague is to make sure what we think works actually does, and if not, to use those resources towards finding a treatment that does work.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

This is why the daily mini-rallies need to stop being carried live. I've emailed ABC, CBS, and NBC news, as well as CNN, to ask that they don't provide the daily platform for Twitler to stroke his ego and provide misinformation. I didn't bother with Faux, because they'll do anything for their Dear Leader.

 

[Becky]

I typed up a long diatribe about this, but had to delete because there is no way to unpack it and I am so, so pissed.  So all I can say is WTAF?

Edited to add:  I may need to step back from news and media consumption for a while, before I have a stroke.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by Becky

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[GreyhoundFan]

 

[clueliss]

Olympics postponed

 

St Charles County Missouri (Just west of STL) goes stay at home.  Also a death reported here (so we're up to 6) - 35 more cases in STL County.  Total of 90 (120 Metro - FYI we get separate numbers for STL County and STL City - and also for Jackson County and Kansas City (MO) due to separate health departments)