Josie and Kelton 4: Please Leave the Catholics Alone and Now Gestating

[HereticHick]

On 4/21/2019 at 4:35 AM, nvmbr02 said:

. Mom just looked at him and told him "You are behaving but you look like an American tourist"...We used that line on our own kids later in the trip. 

My family uses the "don't behave like an American tourist" line a lot. : ) 

[and we are American]

PS Mr. Possum mixes harissa into our Mac and Cheese.  Or sometimes a bit of chipotle peppers en adobe. 

[nvmbr02]

7 hours ago, HereticHick said:

My family uses the "don't behave like an American tourist" line a lot. : ) 

[and we are American]

PS Mr. Possum mixes harissa into our Mac and Cheese.  Or sometimes a bit of chipotle peppers en adobe. 

We've always just told the kids to behave like they are Canadian. Foe the last 3 years we have mostly traveled in Asia. Even my 9 year old can pick out the Americans from a mile away. 

[theotherelise]

On being surprised at how quickly they got pregnant...

There is a persistent stat that floats around that a couple has a 20% chance of pregnancy each cycle they try. I've had doctors quote it to me (as they told me to "just relax" ?). I've never found the source of this stat, but the only thing I can deduce is that it is an average. In reality, that % chance changes over time.

For people who are using timed intercourse with natural family planning (measuring body temps, tracking cervical mucus and position, etc) to try to conceive (or even just having consistent sex for much of the cycle), you have about 35% chance of pregnancy the first cycle. About 65% of people will be pregnant within 3 cycles and 80% of people will be pregnant within 6 cycles. If you make it to 6 cycles of timed intercourse with no pregnancy, then you have a 50% chance of getting pregnant in the next 6 cycles. These state include suspected ovulatory cycles. If you have evidence you are not ovulating (no periods or very very long cycles) then you do not have these odds. 

The currently propagated information causes a lot of worry from people that they will struggle to conceive.  It also goes to discount the concerns of women who have been trying for 6+ months but cannot get doctors to hear them. 

Anyway, more than twice as many people get pregnant their first cycle trying than get diagnosed with infertility. Unless Josie was having irregular periods, has some other health condition she thought would interfere with conception/pregnancy, or Kelton had concerns about his sperm health, then there was no reason to be surprised.

[VelociRapture]

57 minutes ago, theotherelise said:

On being surprised at how quickly they got pregnant...

There is a persistent stat that floats around that a couple has a 20% chance of pregnancy each cycle they try. I've had doctors quote it to me (as they told me to "just relax" ?). I've never found the source of this stat, but the only thing I can deduce is that it is an average. In reality, that % chance changes over time.

For people who are using timed intercourse with natural family planning (measuring body temps, tracking cervical mucus and position, etc) to try to conceive (or even just having consistent sex for much of the cycle), you have about 35% chance of pregnancy the first cycle. About 65% of people will be pregnant within 3 cycles and 80% of people will be pregnant within 6 cycles. If you make it to 6 cycles of timed intercourse with no pregnancy, then you have a 50% chance of getting pregnant in the next 6 cycles. These state include suspected ovulatory cycles. If you have evidence you are not ovulating (no periods or very very long cycles) then you do not have these odds. 

The currently propagated information causes a lot of worry from people that they will struggle to conceive.  It also goes to discount the concerns of women who have been trying for 6+ months but cannot get doctors to hear them. 

Anyway, more than twice as many people get pregnant their first cycle trying than get diagnosed with infertility. Unless Josie was having irregular periods, has some other health condition she thought would interfere with conception/pregnancy, or Kelton had concerns about his sperm health, then there was no reason to be surprised.

As I pointed out a while ago, this is all assuming that Josie and Kelton were given decent enough Sex Ed to know all this. I doubt that’s the case and, if I’m right about that, it makes perfect sense that they’d be genuinely shocked because they wouldn’t have had access to that information. And considering there are known medical issues in Josie’s family tree they might have been mentally preparing for the possibility that things wouldn’t be easy for them. It easily could have been a genuine surprise when it was. That was what happened to husband and me when we found out I was pregnant last month, though our circumstances were different from JolTon’s since I just learned I have PCOS earlier this year and the fertility specialist made it seem like we’d need treatments to conceive again. But yeah, we were mentally preparing ourselves for more testing and fertility treatments when I got the positive test and I’ve honestly never been so shocked in my life. I could see the same being true for JolTon if they were preparing themselves for the possibility of struggling to have a family the way two of her sisters have.

Edited April 23, 2019 by VelociRapture

[theotherelise]

@VelociRapture it's definitely true they could be lacking in reproductive knowledge. I know Erin talked about having a clotting disorder. I've long assumed she has the MTHFR genetic mutation based on the info we know. If JolTon did any pre-conception medical care, I'd want a doctor to test her for the mutation. It's pretty cheap, all things considered, and she could get on a methylfolate regimen or injections like Erin has done. And yes, seeing Michael's struggle probably makes her less naive about the fact that it isn't always easy.

I probably have an inability at this point to imagine what it would be like to spontaneously conceive and the wonder of seeing a positive test. It's honestly hard for me to remember how it felt the first month trying, so I'll try to keep my bitterness in check!

[Melissa1977]

If Josie knows about something, it is about how making babies. Her mother got pregnant easily, her favourite sister (Alyssa) also, same as Erin. Josie was teached how to track menstrual cycles to increase the baby chance! 

All the Bates girls were tested for the clotting disorder, so Josie would have known if she had. Anyway, the disorder doesn't affect the ability to get pregnant.

They may have tried BC or have had very few sexual activity during the first month (difficult to believe) or have a medical condition we don't know, and be genuinely surprised for the pregnancy. But they are not naive to the point of not knowing how the lego game works. 

[kmachete14]

I know all these statistics, have had sex ed, done research etc. I've been sexually active, on BC, off BC, using condoms, unprotected at various times throughout. I've been afraid of getting pregnant all this time.

I think I'll still be amazed and shocked when I conceive, even if it's one month after my upcoming marriage. It's just an amazing, surreal thought! This body? Can make a baby? Despite all the common sense, I will still be surprised when it happens. 

I think they were just using the term to be like, holy cow, it works! We really made a baby doing this! I would feel the same way. 

People who are not actively trying (or at least what they think is active, like using NFP/tracking) to conceive can still be "surprised" when it happens. 

[nickelodeon]

2 hours ago, Melissa1977 said:

. Josie was teached how to track menstrual cycles to increase the baby chance! 

Wait, is this true? People say this about the Duggar girls "watching Michelle's calendar like a hawk" (TBH I always assumed that this meant that they just notice when she misses a period, not that they're monitoring her basal temperature or whatever) - I've never heard it said about the Bateses.

[Kelsey]

56 minutes ago, nickelodeon said:

Wait, is this true? People say this about the Duggar girls "watching Michelle's calendar like a hawk" (TBH I always assumed that this meant that they just notice when she misses a period, not that they're monitoring her basal temperature or whatever) - I've never heard it said about the Bateses.

I don't know about the Bates but the Duggar family tracked all of their periods on a calendar.

[theotherelise]

Tracking them for actively trying to get a massive quiver is off-putting, But I do actually like the idea of girls and young women being taught about their menstrual cycles in an open, positive way. I had really really heavy periods in middle and high school, but I never felt like there was someone I could talk to about that. I like the body-positivity aspect of encouraging your daughters to monitor their health this way and not to feel like periods are gross. But I don't think that's how the Duggar method plays out in practice!

[rebeccawriter01]

16 hours ago, nickelodeon said:

Wait, is this true? People say this about the Duggar girls "watching Michelle's calendar like a hawk" (TBH I always assumed that this meant that they just notice when she misses a period, not that they're monitoring her basal temperature or whatever) - I've never heard it said about the Bateses.

There used to be lessons on the IBLP website that included tracking as a health/science lesson for girls. I don't know if they used the group calendar on the wall method or if they were just hyperaware. Old interviews and appearances on TLC talk about the girls knowing Kelly Jo was late and encouraging her to take a test, as well as the children praying for more siblings and asking to fast to encourage God to give them more siblings.  

[miss_batson]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BwsVjxsFZ4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

[VBOY9977]

2 hours ago, miss_batson said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BwsVjxsFZ4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

She looks great and happy in those photos. It kinda makes me wish she wasn’t pregnant and she would’ve gotten more time to explore her new found freedom. 

[llucie]

4 hours ago, miss_batson said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BwsVjxsFZ4q/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

The other woman looks so young, its dificult to believe she is a mother of 5, and not small kids either. She has a low success youtube channel, lets hope she is not using Josie friendship for fame. She already managed to made it into the show in the episode Josie was decorating the apartment.

Edited April 26, 2019 by llucie
.

[SassyPantswithASideofClass]

On ‎4‎/‎17‎/‎2019 at 8:51 AM, QuiverDance said:

Mac and cheese goes with everything  in the South.  It's just the way it is. 

esp with bacon. yummmm or toasted breadcrumbs on top the mac and cheese..... Now I am hungry! lol

[kmachete14]

Josie's boobs are HUGE in the easter pic. Makes me nervous for if/when I get pregnant lol that has to be uncomfortable. 

FJer's with already larger boobs -- how big did they get . . . 

 

I also looked up the social media for Josie's adventure friend. She has a beautiful home, married young, has 5 kids . . . but does NOT homeschool. Maybe Josie will be inspired.

Edited April 27, 2019 by kmachete14

[metheglyn]

4 hours ago, kmachete14 said:

I also looked up the social media for Josie's adventure friend. She has a beautiful home, married young, has 5 kids . . . but does NOT homeschool. Maybe Josie will be inspired.

She does actually homeschool at least some of her kids.  It kind of sounds like two of her kids are going to school, since another post noted that she is homeschooling a 12 year old, a six year old, and a five year old, and I'm not sure how old her other two kids are (although a post from Christmas 2017 suggests they may be teenagers), but she's definitely homeschooling several of them.

[kmachete14]

@metheglyn a post from August 21, 2018 said:

"Now that my kiddos are back in school I finally had time to pamper myself! My hair was part frazzled mess, old lady grey and part brassy brassy yuck. @josbates I love you for making me feel human again! To all my local Knoxvillians looking for a hair stylist, Josie Bates is the best, most precious ever! ???"

Silly me, I thought that met her kids were literally IN school, so during that time she could get her hair done! I guess she means while she leaves them in front of their Bob Jones distance lessons (yuck) / babysitting the youngest ones, she goes out to get her hair done???? I'm also wondering if this is something new she's taking on, in your post she says "learn how to make this homeschooling thing work." 

She also runs an art business and hopes to soon move into a camper after selling their house to build their "Dream house." 

So perhaps this "inspiration" for Josie is NOT going to be good. . . 

Edited April 28, 2019 by kmachete14

[metheglyn]

3 minutes ago, kmachete14 said:

@metheglyn a post from August 21, 2018 said:

"Now that my kiddos are back in school I finally had time to pamper myself! My hair was part frazzled mess, old lady grey and part brassy brassy yuck. @josbates I love you for making me feel human again! To all my local Knoxvillians looking for a hair stylist, Josie Bates is the best, most precious ever! ???"

Silly me, I thought that met her kids were literally IN school, so during that time she could get her hair done! I guess she means while she leaves them in front of their Bob Jones distance lessons (yuck) / babysitting the youngest ones, she goes out to get her hair done???? I'm also wondering if this is something new she's taking on, in your post she says "learn how to make this homeschooling thing work." 

She also runs an art business and hopes to soon move into a camper after selling their house to build their "Dream house." 

So perhaps this "inspiration" for Josie is NOT going to be good. . . 

@kmachete14 I agree with you that it does sound like most of her kids used to go to school until this school year. We ended up discussing her back when Josie posted the pictures of decorating her apartment and discovered that according to some of her fall 2018 posts it seems like all but one of the kids *used* to be in school, so homeschooling three of them is a fairly recent thing. 

[Melissa1977]

Josie's friend has a Braggie vibe. 

[miss_batson]

Josie's baby shower

 

Edited April 28, 2019 by miss_batson

[HerNameIsBuffy]

On 4/23/2019 at 1:37 PM, theotherelise said:

And yes, seeing Michael's struggle probably makes her less naive about the fact that it isn't always easy.

I think this is very likely.

I am the youngest by a lot so my sisters had been going through over a decade of infertility issues by the time I married.

I prepared my future ex that I might not be able to have a baby, after all my sisters couldn't.  I got pregnant first cycle when we married and then instantly when we were trying later (and once when we weren't.)  

The ease at which I fell pregnant was a huge shock to me.

[Mudgie]

The baby shower looks like it was lovely. 

It also looks like it was set up to focus on making super Insta worthy photos out of it almost more than focusing on the actual incoming baby.  

[Johannah]

Is Josie the first Bates teen mom?

[lumpentheologie]

7 hours ago, Johannah said:

Is Josie the first Bates teen mom?

Yes, Alyssa was the only one to come even kind of close, and she was 20 when Allie was born.