Duggars by the Dozen 35: Five Months with no Pregnant Duggars. How much longer will it last?

[singsingsing]

1 minute ago, JermajestyDuggar said:

Have you ever read about standard deviations in statistics? When a standard deviation is large/wide, your average is basically meaningless. That’s what I’m saying about your 40s. 

...Yes. I have read about standard deviations in statistics. This is not a statistical analysis. If I tried to present this in a statistics class I would be kicked out and banned for life.  This is literally nothing but a fun little game meant to provide a very general baseline idea of how things might go based on a ton of assumptions and pure speculation. Basically this is, "If they are just like Michelle, they will have X number of children. If they are just like Michelle except with 21-month gaps, they will have X number of children. If they are just like Michelle but with 30-month gaps...." It's not based on actual data!

[JermajestyDuggar]

1 minute ago, singsingsing said:

...Yes. I have read about standard deviations in statistics. This is not a statistical analysis. If I tried to present this in a statistics class I would be kicked out and banned for life.  This is literally nothing but a fun little game meant to provide a very general baseline idea of how things might go based on a ton of assumptions and pure speculation. Basically this is, "If they are just like Michelle, they will have X number of children. If they are just like Michelle except with 21-month gaps, they will have X number of children. If they are just like Michelle but with 30-month gaps...." It's not based on actual data!

Lol I know FJ isn’t a stats class. I genuinely thought we were just discussing this topic and presenting our opinions based on our own personal knowledge of FJ, averages, and fertility in general. 

[singsingsing]

1 minute ago, JermajestyDuggar said:

Lol I know FJ isn’t a stats class. I genuinely thought we were just discussing this topic and presenting our opinions based on our own personal knowledge of FJ, averages, and fertility in general. 

Oh, that's totally cool, I was confused and thought you were taking issue with my "methods" and I was trying to explain that my "methods" are super non-scientific and it's all just for fun!  I love these discussions, carry on!

[JermajestyDuggar]

Just now, singsingsing said:

Oh, that's totally cool, I was confused and thought you were taking issue with my "methods" and I was trying to explain that my "methods" are super non-scientific and it's all just for fun!  I love these discussions, carry on!

No, I was mostly just backing up my own personal opinion on predicting fertility on FJ. I’ve actually seen a lot of women in real life who think they can put off having kids until they are late 30s or even 40s and are surprised that they aren’t pregnant right away. There are a lot of misconceptions out there about fertility in the general public. And a lot of my personal opinions are often based on those experiences. 

[Coconut Flan]

21 minutes ago, Rachel333 said:

Right, and the reason why people share those stories of someone having a baby at 50 isn't typically because they think it's likely, it's because it is unusual and thus more interesting than sharing a story of someone who didn't have babies in their 40s.

I've also heard women share those stories as horror stories.  Not a lot of women really want to start over with a baby in their late 40s.

And yet almost every time someone tries to caution about expecting everyone to have Michelle Duggar's fertility, one of the justifying responses will be a "great aunt Susie" story. 

[JermajestyDuggar]

Oh and one more thing to totally fuck up any stats about having babies in your 40s.... your chance of having twins (conceiving naturally) slightly goes up in your 40s! Scientists don’t actually know why but they think maybe it’s like one last hurrah from your ovaries before menopause. Your ovaries are like:

“Here’s two eggs for ya this month bitch! We’re done!” *mic drop*

[VelociRapture]

@habertYou’re off a tiny bit. Assuming that any babies born next year are fullterm, they could hypothetically conceive as late as April 9th of next year. That would give a due date of New Year’s Eve (December 31st.)  

Thats over four months away, so @singsingsing, you are correct that there’s definitely still a good amount of time for Babypocalypse.

I’ll also say that if the married Bates daughters with multiple kids - Erin and Alyssa* - really want to limit their family sizes then they need to figure out a method of prevention that works for them. 

*Erin hasn’t really said anything about wanting a smaller family, but I feel like she seems a bit more frazzled with the three kids than she did with just two. Alyssa has repeatedly stated she wants closer to six or eight kids, but she’s only 24 and is pretty much already halfway there. They could just be having a set number close together to get the baby years over with, but I get the feeling that’s not the case. 

[singsingsing]

4 minutes ago, Coconut Flan said:

And yet almost every time someone tries to caution about expecting everyone to have Michelle Duggar's fertility, one of the justifying responses will be a "great aunt Susie" story. 

Honestly, I think 'Great aunt Susie' gets pulled out to make the case for it being possible to have babies in your late 40s, not to make the case for it being likely. I also want to reiterate that there's a pretty enormous difference between having babies in the 40-45 age range (like my great-great-grandmother, whose name was unfortunately not Susie) vs. the 45-49 age range. I have never seen anyone here suggest that everyone will be as fertile as Michelle Duggar because they had an aunt who had a change of life baby at the age of 47.

[Rachel333]

1 minute ago, Coconut Flan said:

And yet almost every time someone tries to caution about expecting everyone to have Michelle Duggar's fertility, one of the justifying responses will be a "great aunt Susie" story. 

I'm not sure what you mean there since Michelle Duggar hasn't had children in her late 40s so "Michelle Duggar's fertility" and "great aunt Susie" stories are different things. Usually when we talk about not expecting everyone to have Michelle's fertility it's about number of children, not about having children late.

But as for those stories of women having children in their late 40s, I maintain that people sharing them are sharing them because they're unusual (and because people just like sharing stories), not because anyone thinks it's likely. Everyone knows that it's unlikely to have children in your late 40s! If you're saying people shouldn't share those stories at all that's a different matter, but they were first brought up in this thread as if people sharing them think those stories make it likely for women to have children that late, and I just don't think that's true. "Well, it's possible to have children that late, my great aunt..." is very different from "It's likely they will have children that late."

[Coconut Flan]

We may be interpreting things differently, but I have had people enter into arguments with me over the drop in fertility because so and so did have a baby at 49 or whatever.  

The way it goes down is something like this.  I say it's unlikely that person x will have any more children.  She's already 44, 45, 46, etc.  Then I get told but my mother's sister's cousin had one at 49 so yes she can have more!  It hits me as a rejection of the the .01% chance that women have in that range not as oh wow it's so amazing that it happened.

[singsingsing]

2 minutes ago, Coconut Flan said:

We may be interpreting things differently, but I have had people enter into arguments with me over the drop in fertility because so and so did have a baby at 49 or whatever.  

That's somewhat bizarre, and if that's the case, I totally agree with you that it's nonsense. Having a baby in your late 40s has always been very unusual, and even with modern healthcare and the advent of new and improved fertility treatments, it's still very uncommon.

[luv2laugh]

Is Kendra’s Mom pregnant AGAIN??? 

[HurricaneBells]

Why is it assumed the number of women over 45 is having babies is dropping? I dont disagree its harder but doesnt mean you cant.

[Rachel333]

I did actually have a great-aunt Susie.  I know nothing about her fertility, though.

It's definitely true that you shouldn't take stories of outliers as evidence that something is likely. I still think, though, that people aren't really sharing those stories for that reason, it's more that people just like sharing those stories and when a topic comes up they see an opportunity to share a story they have. I think that's particularly true on FJ where every conversation turns into personal stories. I know when I hear people talk about how unlikely it is for women to have children in their late 40s my mind immediately goes to the counter examples. It doesn't mean I actually think they disprove the statistics, it's just that those stories naturally come to mind.

[JermajestyDuggar]

2 minutes ago, HurricaneBells said:

Why is it assumed the number of women over 45 is having babies is dropping? I dont disagree its harder but doesnt mean you cant.

Actually it’s rising thanks to fertility treatments! 

[Rachel333]

2 minutes ago, HurricaneBells said:

Why is it assumed the number of women over 45 is having babies is dropping? I dont disagree its harder but doesnt mean you cant.

Did someone say it's dropping? My understanding is that it's becoming more common due to fertility treatments.

[JermajestyDuggar]

But guys, don’t even get me started on the misconceptions about men’s fertility! Whew! So many people think a guy is just as fertile in his 60s as he was in his 20s. 

Nope. Fertility and aging aren’t just an issue for women. 

[Rachel333]

4 minutes ago, JermajestyDuggar said:

But guys, don’t even get me started on the misconceptions about men’s fertility! Whew! So many people think a guy is just as fertile in his 60s as he was in his 20s. 

Nope. Fertility and aging aren’t just an issue for women. 

Oh yeah, I think people are very aware of women's fertility dropping (actually, I see a lot of people with the misconception that women's fertility drops sharply after their 20s) but few people even realize that men's fertility is affected by age. The older a man is the more likely he is to pass along some mutations. Achondroplasia is a notable example, and I actually informed my biology teacher about that one and he had no idea it could work like that.

I've also seen people point out that when women's fertility is discussed people rarely take into account that older women are also likely to have older male partners.

[JermajestyDuggar]

6 minutes ago, Rachel333 said:

Oh yeah, I think people are very aware of women's fertility dropping (actually, I see a lot of people with the misconception that women's fertility drops sharply after their 20s) but few people even realize that men's fertility is affected by age. The older a man is the more likely he is to pass along some mutations. Achondroplasia is a notable example, and I actually informed my biology teacher about that one and he had no idea it could work like that.

I've also seen people point out that when women's fertility is discussed people rarely take into account that older women are also likely to have older male partners.

Amanda Smith married a man in his 60s and she’s said they are open to children if the lord gives them any. But they’ve been married for a couple years and no announcement yet. It's likely due to his fertility dropping as he has aged. She’s mid 30s. But they seem really happy together just by themselves and I’m sure she knows her chances aren’t great. Or at least has figured out by now that they may always be childless.

[singsingsing]

49 minutes ago, luv2laugh said:

Is Kendra’s Mom pregnant AGAIN??? 

She is. I think she's due in December? She's one who could hypothetically be having babies at the same time as her daughter for the next few years, because she's only 38. I'm not sure if the Caldwells are full on quiverfull or if they've taken measures to space their children and will do so in the future, though. She did say that they were hoping she could have at least a couple more.

[SapphireSlytherin]

6 minutes ago, singsingsing said:

She is. I think she's due in December?

Seriously??? WTAF.

 

Oh wait. I thought she'd had a baby right before Kendra, but I got my timeline mixed up. Whew!

 

[PurpleCats]

GUYS.  

 

I came in, saw this thread was hot, and I was like YES!!!! Time to drink some wine, read wild speculation in a hot bath while I wind down from a long day.

 

mais non!

just a very popular debate about how many kids each Duggar will have. ??

[AussieKrissy]

8 minutes ago, singsingsing said:

She is. I think she's due in December? She's one who could hypothetically be having babies at the same time as her daughter for the next few years, because she's only 38. I'm not sure if the Caldwells are full on quiverfull or if they've taken measures to space their children and will do so in the future, though. She did say that they were hoping she could have at least a couple more.

Did she have one at around the same time as Kendra? Or was she the one pregnant at Kendra's wedding?

Or am I getting all confused with Lauren's (???) mother who had Duke (???) around the same time as Gideon (???) 

I wonder if Kendra will try and be pregnant at the same time as her mother?

She might be thinking, Mum might not have many more, now is my chance?

Once I got past the ick factor, personally I may have thought it was pretty cool. That is if life had of put me in that position. 

Technically it could have been possible (for me) as my biological mother had me at 17, but I was not raised with her so no emotional connection.....

[Knight of Ni]

Wait... hold on just one minute. Are you telling me that someone 8 years older than me is a grandma?!?! 

[SapphireSlytherin]

1 minute ago, Knight of Ni said:

Wait... hold on just one minute. Are you telling me that someone 8 years older than me is a grandma?!?! 

I don't know how old you are, but my cousin was a grandma at 36. I have a friend who was a grandma at 32.