Duggars by the Dozen 35: Five Months with no Pregnant Duggars. How much longer will it last?

[habert]

16 days since Kade Smith was born. 

129 days since Felicity Vuolo was born. 

Still no pregnancy announcements from either camp. I’m entirely too fascinated by this. 

[singsingsing]

I'm kind of holding my breath and waiting to see what's going to happen in the next 3-ish months. Aside from Joy, they could all be (knowingly) pregnant right now and just waiting to announce. No, I definitely don't think they're all pregnant, but I'll actually be pretty surprised if it turns out that none of them are.

[Melissa1977]

I don't think most fundie children will abandon fundamentalism. But I think many of them will become mainstream conservatives, which makes easy to keep hateful beliefs while use birth control.

But probably they will consider a failure to have only 2 kids, or will be ashamed because having 2 obviously means they are not leaving it to God. Three or four can look slightly better to their family eyes. Five or six will be enough to keep fundie grandparents proud (or at least, to keep them silent).

So, in my opinion, some 2nd generation fundies may be willing to remain childfree or having 1 or 2 kids, but probably will feel compelled to add some more. Which may lead to frustration and anxiety. 

This said, I bet that very few of these 2nd generation will have megafamilies. Things have changed. Quiverfull is outdated. I can see some Duggars having 10-12, because they have money and properties and a TV show, but that will be the exception.

And of course, there's a chance that a few kids would really abandon fundamentalism. It's impossible to keep 19 adult children in the same way of life. Someone may rebel, or just quietly change their beliefs.

[rainbowbabycakes]

13 hours ago, SilverBeach said:

I think it was the creepy family pastor who impregnated the daughter, not the brother. I remember watching this episode, but it was a long time ago.

And then tried to marry her! And the youngest child was his too, he got an older sister pregnant, and blamed it on the brother

[allthegoodnamesrgone]

I see a lot of the 2nd gen kids while keeping the fundy beliefs will limit their family sizes, and I'm sure a few will eventually fall away to mainstream conservationism maybe 1 or 2 will go out and out hippy liberal. But that won't be for a few more years, I'll be interested to see where they all are in 15 years, I think only then will we really see what Gothardism as done for this next round of kids.    All the older Duggar & Bates kids know what it is like to go hungry, or sleep piled one on top of the other, waiting in line for bathrooms things like that. ALL the children know what it is like to be 1 in a crowd of dozens of people. I think what most of them will take from this is that yes we are pro life and children are a blessing from God but having too many makes their lives chaotic and miserable.  I'm sure 1 or 2 of the kids in the two families will come close to 20 children but the vast majority of them will have some "sign from God" to stop having kids after X number of babies. 

[singsingsing]

I've been thinking about the Duggars' baby spacing, how unusual it actually is or isn't that there are no (known) Duggars pregnant right now, and out of curiosity I looked at Michelle's average child spacing, her kids' average child spacing (so far), and started doing some calculations for different scenarios. It's behind the spoiler because it's super long.

Spoiler

Michelle's child spacing:

Between Josh and Jana/JD: about 22 months (but this one shouldn’t really count, because Jim Bob and Michelle became quiverfull sometime during this period.)

Between Jana/JD and Jill: about 16 months

Between Jill and Jessa: about 18 months

Between Jessa and Jinger: about 13 months 

Between Jinger and Joseph: about 13 months

Between Joseph and Josiah: about 19 months

Josiah to Joy: about 14 months

Joy to Jed/Jer: about 14 months

Jed/Jer to Jason: about 16 months

Jason to James: about 15 months

James to Justin: about 16 months

Justin to Jackson: about 16 months

Jackson to Johannah: about 17 months

Johannah to Jennifer: about 22 months

Jennifer to Jordyn: about 16 months

Jordyn to Josie: about 12 months, but Josie was due in March so it would have been about fifteen months if she had gone full term.

That should work out to an average of about 16 months between births (not counting the gap between Josh and Jana/JD because the JB and Michelle became quiverfull sometime during that period). Michelle was pretty damn consistent overall, and she conceived fast. I don’t think we know this for sure, but it’s almost certain that Michelle was almost always actively attempting to conceive. As we know, you can be quiverfull and actually truly have the attitude that you’re going to ‘leave it up to God’ which does not involve actively trying to conceive each month.

 

Now let’s look at the grandkids.

Josh and Anna:

Mackyznie to Michael: about 20 months

Michael to Marcus: about 24 months

Marcus to Meredith: about 25 months

Meredith to Mason: about 26 months

 

Jill and Derick:

Israel to Samuel: about 27 months

 

Jessa and Ben:

Spurgeon to Henry: about 15 months

 

So far, these are the only couples with more than one child.

 

Let’s look at some hypotheticals.

Let’s say that Anna has settled into a pattern and continues adding one extra month between babies as she goes on. So let’s say that Baby #6 will arrive for the Smuggars 27 months after Mason, Baby #7 28 months after that, and so on. This is what their quiver will look like by the time Anna is 45 (I’m being very generous and assuming all of these women will remain fertile until the age of 45?

Mackynzie: October 2009

Michael: June 2011

Marcus: June 2013

Meredith: July 2015

Mason: September 2017

Baby #6: December 2019

Baby #7: April 2022

Baby #8: September 2024

Baby #9: March 2027

Baby #10: October 2029

Baby #11: June 2032

 

Now let’s look at the Dillards and say that Jill continues to have exactly 27 months between her births. Assuming that, the Dillards’ quiver would look like:

Israel: April 2015

Samuel: July 2017

Baby #3: October 2019

Baby #4: January 2022

Baby #5: April 2024

Baby #6: July 2026

Baby #7: October 2028

Baby #8: January 2031

Baby #9: April 2033

Baby #10: July 2035

 

Okay, moving on to Jessa and Ben. It’s closing in on 22 months between Henry’s birth and now. We don’t know that Jessa’s not pregnant right now, but for argument’s sake, let’s just say she gets pregnant today, which would make her due in August of 2019. That would mean a grand total of 30 months between Henry and Baby #3, making that gap twice as long as the gap between Spurgeon and Henry. So there are a few scenarios we can try out here.

First, what if Jessa goes 30 months between Henry and Baby #3 and then keeps going 30 months between babies from then on? The Seewalds’ quiver would look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: February 2022

Baby #5: August 2024

Baby #6: February 2027

Baby #7: August 2029

Baby #8: February 2032

Baby #9: August 2034

Baby #10: February 2037

But what if this spacing is a fluke and Jessa’s going to be all over the map? Say the gap between Henry and Baby #3 is 30 months, but the gap between Baby #3 and Baby #4 goes back down to 15? If Jessa alternates between 15 and 30 months between babies, the Seewalds’ quiver will look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: November 2020

Baby #5: May 2023

Baby #6: August 2024

Baby #7: February 2027

Baby #8: May 2028

Baby #9: November 2030

Baby #10: February 2032

Baby #11: August 2034

Baby #12: February 2037

Okay, so now let’s say her future babies will come an an exactly average time for her, the average between 15 months and 30 months (again, this is, of course, speculation). Which would be 22.5 months, but let’s round it up to 23. The Seewalds’ quiver, in that case, would look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: July 2021

Baby #5: June 2023

Baby #6: May 2025

Baby #7: April 2027

Baby #8: March 2029

Baby #9: February 2031

Baby #10: January 2033

Baby #11: December 2034

Baby #12: November 2036

So actually, no difference between giving birth at an ‘average’ pace and alternating between 15 months and 30 months, and only 2 ‘extra’ babies than if she were to continue with a spacing of 30 months every time. I haven’t calculated what would happen if she went back to 15-month intervals after Baby #3, but I’m assuming it would only lead to one, maybe two extra babies.

 

Onto Jinger and Jeremy, AKA The Babes. Jinger and Jeremy married on November 5th, 2016, ushering in the apocalypse mere days later. They welcomed their first child 20.5 months after that, so let’s just round up to 21 months. Since we have no idea when their next child might be born, let’s just say for the sake of argument that their pacing will be the same as the length of time between their marriage and the birth of their first child: 21 months. If that’s the case, and Jinger remains fertile/they continue to reproduce until she’s 45, the Babes’ quiver will look like this:

Felicity: July 2018

Baby #2: April 2020

Baby #3: January 2022

Baby #4: October 2023

Baby #5: July 2025

Baby #6: April 2027

Baby #7: January 2029

Baby #8: October 2030

Baby #9: July 2032

Baby #10: April 2034

Baby #11: January 2036

Baby #12: October 2037

Okay, but what if Jinger and Jeremy are truly QUIVERFULL and taking 21 months to have their first child was just a fluke? Just like with Jessa, let’s assume that Jinger gets pregnant today and is due in August of 2019. That would be 13 months between Felicity and Baby #2. Let’s average 13 months and 21 months to get Jinger’s new pace: 17 months between babies. With 17 months between babies starting with Baby #2, the Babes’ quiver would look more like this:

Felicity: July 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: January 2021

Baby #4: June 2022

Baby #5: November 2023

Baby #6: April 2025

Baby #7: September 2026

Baby #8: February 2028

Baby #9: July 2029

Baby #10: December 2030

Baby #11: May 2032

Baby #12: October 2033

Baby #13: March 2035

Baby # 14: August 2036

Baby #15: January 2028

Yikes.

 

Now onto the Forsyths. Joy had a C-section, and she also happens to be the only one we know is currently not pregnant (at least based on her Instagram comment sometime in the past couple of days). Let’s guess that she’s going to follow in sister mom Jill’s footsteps and have exactly 27 months between her babies. The Forsyths’ quiver would look like this:

Gideon: February 2018

Baby #2: May 2020

Baby #3: August 2022

Baby #4: November 2024

Baby #5: February 2027

Baby #6: May 2029

Baby #7: August 2031

Baby #8: November 2033

Baby #9: February 2036

Baby #10: May 2038

Baby #11: August 2040

Okay, but let’s say Joy doesn’t follow in Jill’s footsteps – after all, Michelle had C-sections and didn’t bother to wait to get pregnant after them, and Joy might very well go on to have a VBAC. Let’s say again, for argument’s sake, that it’s going to be an insane August for the Duggars because Joy also gets pregnant today. The spacing between Gideon and Baby #2 would be nearly 18 months, so let’s just round up to 18 months for the sake of simplicity. Let’s say that her spacing thereafter is exactly 18 months. The Forsyths’ quiver would end up looking like this:

Gideon: February 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: February 2021

Baby #4: August 2022

Baby #5: February 2024

Baby #6: August 2025

Baby #7: February 2027

Baby #8: August 2028

Baby #9: February 2030

Baby #10: August 2031.

Baby #11: February 2033

Baby #12: August 2034

Baby #13: February 2036

Baby #14: August 2037

Baby #15: February 2039

Baby #16: August 2040

Baby #17: February 2042

RUFUS TAKE THE WHEEL.

 

Now for Joe and Kendra. We have no idea whether Kendra is pregnant now or not, nor how long the gap will be between Garrett and Baby #2. But for the sake of speculation, let’s guess that Kendra will be joining the crowd due to give birth again in August 2019. That’s 14 months between babies. Assuming she continues at a pace of 14 months between births and remains fertile until the age of 45, the JoKen quiver will look like this (buckle up, ya’ll):

Garrett: June 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: October 2020

Baby #4: December 2021

Baby #5: February 2023

Baby #6: April 2024

Baby #7: June 2025

Baby #8: August 2026

Baby #9: October 2027

Baby #10: December 2028

Baby #11: February 2030

Baby #12: April 2031

Baby #13: June 2032

Baby #14: August 2033

Baby #15: October 2034

Baby #16: December 2035

Baby #17: February 2037

Baby #18: April 2038

Baby #19: June 2039

Baby #20: August 2040

Baby #21: October 2041

Baby #22: December 2042

And if you think this is totally outrageous and impossible, I will remind you that the average spacing between Michelle’s children, not including Josh to Jana/JD, was 16 months – and Michelle got started later than Kendra.

 

Moving on to Josiah and Lauren, and JD and Abbie, there’s no data at all to work with yet. So I’m going to steal from Duggar Data, who has the average time span between marriage and first baby for a Duggar at 367 days – so for simplicity’s sake, I’ll just say 12 months.

Let’s look at Josiah and Lauren first. If we assume they’ll be exactly ‘Duggar average’ and welcome their first child exactly 12 months after marriage, Baby SiRen #1 will enter the world in June or July 2019 (I’ll say July because they’re right on the cusp and I’m being generous). Then let’s assume that they continue at Michelle’s average pace of one baby every 16 months, until Lauren hits 45. SiRen’s quiver will look like this:

Baby #1: July 2019

Baby #2: November 2020

Baby #3: March 2022

Baby #4: July 2023

Baby #5: November 2024

Baby #6: March 2026

Baby #7: July 2027

Baby #8: November 2028

Baby #9: March 2030

Baby #10: July 2031

Baby #11: November 2032

Baby #12: March 2034

Baby #13: July 2035

Baby #14: November 2036

Baby #15: March 2038

Baby #16: July 2039

Baby #17: November 2040

Baby #18: March 2042

Baby #19: July 2043

 

And using the same calculations for John and Abbie:

Baby #1: November 2019

Baby #2: March 2021

Baby #3: July 2022

Baby #4: November 2023

Baby #5: March 2025

Baby #6: July 2026

Baby #7: November 2027

Baby #8: March 2029

Baby # 9: July 2030

Baby #10: November 2031

Baby #11: March 2033

Baby #12: July 2034

Baby #13: November 2035

Baby #14: March 2037

tl;dr (which also turned out to be long, sorry!):

-Anna could easily continue at her current pace, adding a little more time between each baby, and wind up with 11 kids total. Her next child would be due in December 2019, so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Jill could easily continue at her current pace (27 months between births) and wind up with 10 kids total. Her next child would be due in October 2019 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Jessa could easily go 30 months between each future birth and still wind up with 10 kids total. Her next child would be due in August 2019 because this scenario is assuming she gets pregnant now, so she would not be ready to announce yet.

-Jinger could easily go 21 months between babies (the amount of time between her marriage and Felicity) and wind up with 12 kids total. Her next child would be due in April 2020 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Joy could follow sister mom Jill's lead and go exactly 27 months between births, and wind up with 11 kids total. Her next child would be due in May 2020 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Kendra could potentially reproduce at a slightly faster clip than Michelle and go 14 months between births, leading to a grand total of 22 kids. Her next child would be due in August 2019 because I'm using the same hypothetical scenario where she gets pregnant now, so she would not be ready to announce yet.

-Lauren could reproduce at exactly the same pace as Michelle and wind up with 19 kids total. Using the Duggar Data 'Duggar wedding to birth of first child' average, she would be due in July 2019 and most likely not ready to announce yet.

-Abbie could reproduce at exactly the same pace as Michelle and wind up with 14 kids total. Using the Duggar Data 'Duggar wedding to birth of first child' average, she would be due in November 2019 and therefore would not be pregnant yet.

So what's my point in all this? These calculations predict quiver sizes in the double digits for every single married couple, and yet none of them would be pregnant or ready to announce yet. 

Do I think it's likely any of them will have babies consistently every 14 or 16 months? Nope. Do I think all of them will remain fertile until the age of 45? Nope. And this is assuming none of them take permanent measures to limit their family size, or are forced to stop for health reasons, or experience lengthy periods of unexplained secondary infertility, or what have you. On the other hand, while it's quite uncommon, there are women who have babies into their late 40s, and these calculations have also assumed none of them will have twins.

Basically, in this scenario, six of them could be having babies in 2019 and still not be pregnant or not ready to announce. They could have babies at a far slower pace than Michelle and still wind up with quiver sizes in the double digits. Some scenarios had a couple of them keeping up with, or outpacing, Michelle. Also, they could be quiverfull in the 'true' sense, as in they're actually 'leaving it up to God' and experiencing longer gaps between children simply because they're not actively attempting to conceive. It's just way too soon to assume they're limiting their family sizes on purpose!

[Sky with diamonds]

1 hour ago, singsingsing said:

I've been thinking about the Duggars' baby spacing, how unusual it actually is or isn't that there are no (known) Duggars pregnant right now, and out of curiosity I looked at Michelle's average child spacing, her kids' average child spacing (so far), and started doing some calculations for different scenarios. It's behind the spoiler because it's super long.

  Hide contents

Michelle's child spacing:

Between Josh and Jana/JD: about 22 months (but this one shouldn’t really count, because Jim Bob and Michelle became quiverfull sometime during this period.)

Between Jana/JD and Jill: about 16 months

Between Jill and Jessa: about 18 months

Between Jessa and Jinger: about 13 months 

Between Jinger and Joseph: about 13 months

Between Joseph and Josiah: about 19 months

Josiah to Joy: about 14 months

Joy to Jed/Jer: about 14 months

Jed/Jer to Jason: about 16 months

Jason to James: about 15 months

James to Justin: about 16 months

Justin to Jackson: about 16 months

Jackson to Johannah: about 17 months

Johannah to Jennifer: about 22 months

Jennifer to Jordyn: about 16 months

Jordyn to Josie: about 12 months, but Josie was due in March so it would have been about fifteen months if she had gone full term.

That should work out to an average of about 16 months between births (not counting the gap between Josh and Jana/JD because the JB and Michelle became quiverfull sometime during that period). Michelle was pretty damn consistent overall, and she conceived fast. I don’t think we know this for sure, but it’s almost certain that Michelle was almost always actively attempting to conceive. As we know, you can be quiverfull and actually truly have the attitude that you’re going to ‘leave it up to God’ which does not involve actively trying to conceive each month.

 

Now let’s look at the grandkids.

Josh and Anna:

Mackyznie to Michael: about 20 months

Michael to Marcus: about 24 months

Marcus to Meredith: about 25 months

Meredith to Mason: about 26 months

 

Jill and Derick:

Israel to Samuel: about 27 months

 

Jessa and Ben:

Spurgeon to Henry: about 15 months

 

So far, these are the only couples with more than one child.

 

Let’s look at some hypotheticals.

Let’s say that Anna has settled into a pattern and continues adding one extra month between babies as she goes on. So let’s say that Baby #6 will arrive for the Smuggars 27 months after Mason, Baby #7 28 months after that, and so on. This is what their quiver will look like by the time Anna is 45 (I’m being very generous and assuming all of these women will remain fertile until the age of 45?

Mackynzie: October 2009

Michael: June 2011

Marcus: June 2013

Meredith: July 2015

Mason: September 2017

Baby #6: December 2019

Baby #7: April 2022

Baby #8: September 2024

Baby #9: March 2027

Baby #10: October 2029

Baby #11: June 2032

 

Now let’s look at the Dillards and say that Jill continues to have exactly 27 months between her births. Assuming that, the Dillards’ quiver would look like:

Israel: April 2015

Samuel: July 2017

Baby #3: October 2019

Baby #4: January 2022

Baby #5: April 2024

Baby #6: July 2026

Baby #7: October 2028

Baby #8: January 2031

Baby #9: April 2033

Baby #10: July 2035

 

Okay, moving on to Jessa and Ben. It’s closing in on 22 months between Henry’s birth and now. We don’t know that Jessa’s not pregnant right now, but for argument’s sake, let’s just say she gets pregnant today, which would make her due in August of 2019. That would mean a grand total of 30 months between Henry and Baby #3, making that gap twice as long as the gap between Spurgeon and Henry. So there are a few scenarios we can try out here.

First, what if Jessa goes 30 months between Henry and Baby #3 and then keeps going 30 months between babies from then on? The Seewalds’ quiver would look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: February 2022

Baby #5: August 2024

Baby #6: February 2027

Baby #7: August 2029

Baby #8: February 2032

Baby #9: August 2034

Baby #10: February 2037

But what if this spacing is a fluke and Jessa’s going to be all over the map? Say the gap between Henry and Baby #3 is 30 months, but the gap between Baby #3 and Baby #4 goes back down to 15? If Jessa alternates between 15 and 30 months between babies, the Seewalds’ quiver will look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: November 2020

Baby #5: May 2023

Baby #6: August 2024

Baby #7: February 2027

Baby #8: May 2028

Baby #9: November 2030

Baby #10: February 2032

Baby #11: August 2034

Baby #12: February 2037

Okay, so now let’s say her future babies will come an an exactly average time for her, the average between 15 months and 30 months (again, this is, of course, speculation). Which would be 22.5 months, but let’s round it up to 23. The Seewalds’ quiver, in that case, would look like this:

Spurgeon: November 2015

Henry: February 2017

Baby #3: August 2019

Baby #4: July 2021

Baby #5: June 2023

Baby #6: May 2025

Baby #7: April 2027

Baby #8: March 2029

Baby #9: February 2031

Baby #10: January 2033

Baby #11: December 2034

Baby #12: November 2036

So actually, no difference between giving birth at an ‘average’ pace and alternating between 15 months and 30 months, and only 2 ‘extra’ babies than if she were to continue with a spacing of 30 months every time. I haven’t calculated what would happen if she went back to 15-month intervals after Baby #3, but I’m assuming it would only lead to one, maybe two extra babies.

 

Onto Jinger and Jeremy, AKA The Babes. Jinger and Jeremy married on November 5th, 2016, ushering in the apocalypse mere days later. They welcomed their first child 20.5 months after that, so let’s just round up to 21 months. Since we have no idea when their next child might be born, let’s just say for the sake of argument that their pacing will be the same as the length of time between their marriage and the birth of their first child: 21 months. If that’s the case, and Jinger remains fertile/they continue to reproduce until she’s 45, the Babes’ quiver will look like this:

Felicity: July 2018

Baby #2: April 2020

Baby #3: January 2022

Baby #4: October 2023

Baby #5: July 2025

Baby #6: April 2027

Baby #7: January 2029

Baby #8: October 2030

Baby #9: July 2032

Baby #10: April 2034

Baby #11: January 2036

Baby #12: October 2037

Okay, but what if Jinger and Jeremy are truly QUIVERFULL and taking 21 months to have their first child was just a fluke? Just like with Jessa, let’s assume that Jinger gets pregnant today and is due in August of 2019. That would be 13 months between Felicity and Baby #2. Let’s average 13 months and 21 months to get Jinger’s new pace: 17 months between babies. With 17 months between babies starting with Baby #2, the Babes’ quiver would look more like this:

Felicity: July 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: January 2021

Baby #4: June 2022

Baby #5: November 2023

Baby #6: April 2025

Baby #7: September 2026

Baby #8: February 2028

Baby #9: July 2029

Baby #10: December 2030

Baby #11: May 2032

Baby #12: October 2033

Baby #13: March 2035

Baby # 14: August 2036

Baby #15: January 2028

Yikes.

 

Now onto the Forsyths. Joy had a C-section, and she also happens to be the only one we know is currently not pregnant (at least based on her Instagram comment sometime in the past couple of days). Let’s guess that she’s going to follow in sister mom Jill’s footsteps and have exactly 27 months between her babies. The Forsyths’ quiver would look like this:

Gideon: February 2018

Baby #2: May 2020

Baby #3: August 2022

Baby #4: November 2024

Baby #5: February 2027

Baby #6: May 2029

Baby #7: August 2031

Baby #8: November 2033

Baby #9: February 2036

Baby #10: May 2038

Baby #11: August 2040

Okay, but let’s say Joy doesn’t follow in Jill’s footsteps – after all, Michelle had C-sections and didn’t bother to wait to get pregnant after them, and Joy might very well go on to have a VBAC. Let’s say again, for argument’s sake, that it’s going to be an insane August for the Duggars because Joy also gets pregnant today. The spacing between Gideon and Baby #2 would be nearly 18 months, so let’s just round up to 18 months for the sake of simplicity. Let’s say that her spacing thereafter is exactly 18 months. The Forsyths’ quiver would end up looking like this:

Gideon: February 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: February 2021

Baby #4: August 2022

Baby #5: February 2024

Baby #6: August 2025

Baby #7: February 2027

Baby #8: August 2028

Baby #9: February 2030

Baby #10: August 2031.

Baby #11: February 2033

Baby #12: August 2034

Baby #13: February 2036

Baby #14: August 2037

Baby #15: February 2039

Baby #16: August 2040

Baby #17: February 2042

RUFUS TAKE THE WHEEL.

 

Now for Joe and Kendra. We have no idea whether Kendra is pregnant now or not, nor how long the gap will be between Garrett and Baby #2. But for the sake of speculation, let’s guess that Kendra will be joining the crowd due to give birth again in August 2019. That’s 14 months between babies. Assuming she continues at a pace of 14 months between births and remains fertile until the age of 45, the JoKen quiver will look like this (buckle up, ya’ll):

Garrett: June 2018

Baby #2: August 2019

Baby #3: October 2020

Baby #4: December 2021

Baby #5: February 2023

Baby #6: April 2024

Baby #7: June 2025

Baby #8: August 2026

Baby #9: October 2027

Baby #10: December 2028

Baby #11: February 2030

Baby #12: April 2031

Baby #13: June 2032

Baby #14: August 2033

Baby #15: October 2034

Baby #16: December 2035

Baby #17: February 2037

Baby #18: April 2038

Baby #19: June 2039

Baby #20: August 2040

Baby #21: October 2041

Baby #22: December 2042

And if you think this is totally outrageous and impossible, I will remind you that the average spacing between Michelle’s children, not including Josh to Jana/JD, was 16 months – and Michelle got started later than Kendra.

 

Moving on to Josiah and Lauren, and JD and Abbie, there’s no data at all to work with yet. So I’m going to steal from Duggar Data, who has the average time span between marriage and first baby for a Duggar at 367 days – so for simplicity’s sake, I’ll just say 12 months.

Let’s look at Josiah and Lauren first. If we assume they’ll be exactly ‘Duggar average’ and welcome their first child exactly 12 months after marriage, Baby SiRen #1 will enter the world in June or July 2019 (I’ll say July because they’re right on the cusp and I’m being generous). Then let’s assume that they continue at Michelle’s average pace of one baby every 16 months, until Lauren hits 45. SiRen’s quiver will look like this:

Baby #1: July 2019

Baby #2: November 2020

Baby #3: March 2022

Baby #4: July 2023

Baby #5: November 2024

Baby #6: March 2026

Baby #7: July 2027

Baby #8: November 2028

Baby #9: March 2030

Baby #10: July 2031

Baby #11: November 2032

Baby #12: March 2034

Baby #13: July 2035

Baby #14: November 2036

Baby #15: March 2038

Baby #16: July 2039

Baby #17: November 2040

Baby #18: March 2042

Baby #19: July 2043

 

And using the same calculations for John and Abbie:

Baby #1: November 2019

Baby #2: March 2021

Baby #3: July 2022

Baby #4: November 2023

Baby #5: March 2025

Baby #6: July 2026

Baby #7: November 2027

Baby #8: March 2029

Baby # 9: July 2030

Baby #10: November 2031

Baby #11: March 2033

Baby #12: July 2034

Baby #13: November 2035

Baby #14: March 2037

tl;dr (which also turned out to be long, sorry!):

-Anna could easily continue at her current pace, adding a little more time between each baby, and wind up with 11 kids total. Her next child would be due in December 2019, so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Jill could easily continue at her current pace (27 months between births) and wind up with 10 kids total. Her next child would be due in October 2019 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Jessa could easily go 30 months between each future birth and still wind up with 10 kids total. Her next child would be due in August 2019 because this scenario is assuming she gets pregnant now, so she would not be ready to announce yet.

-Jinger could easily go 21 months between babies (the amount of time between her marriage and Felicity) and wind up with 12 kids total. Her next child would be due in April 2020 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Joy could follow sister mom Jill's lead and go exactly 27 months between births, and wind up with 11 kids total. Her next child would be due in May 2020 so she would not be pregnant yet.

-Kendra could potentially reproduce at a slightly faster clip than Michelle and go 14 months between births, leading to a grand total of 22 kids. Her next child would be due in August 2019 because I'm using the same hypothetical scenario where she gets pregnant now, so she would not be ready to announce yet.

-Lauren could reproduce at exactly the same pace as Michelle and wind up with 19 kids total. Using the Duggar Data 'Duggar wedding to birth of first child' average, she would be due in July 2019 and most likely not ready to announce yet.

-Abbie could reproduce at exactly the same pace as Michelle and wind up with 14 kids total. Using the Duggar Data 'Duggar wedding to birth of first child' average, she would be due in November 2019 and therefore would not be pregnant yet.

So what's my point in all this? These calculations predict quiver sizes in the double digits for every single married couple, and yet none of them would be pregnant or ready to announce yet. 

Do I think it's likely any of them will have babies consistently every 14 or 16 months? Nope. Do I think all of them will remain fertile until the age of 45? Nope. And this is assuming none of them take permanent measures to limit their family size, or are forced to stop for health reasons, or experience lengthy periods of unexplained secondary infertility, or what have you. On the other hand, while it's quite uncommon, there are women who have babies into their late 40s, and these calculations have also assumed none of them will have twins.

Basically, in this scenario, six of them could be having babies in 2019 and still not be pregnant or not ready to announce. They could have babies at a far slower pace than Michelle and still wind up with quiver sizes in the double digits. Some scenarios had a couple of them keeping up with, or outpacing, Michelle. Also, they could be quiverfull in the 'true' sense, as in they're actually 'leaving it up to God' and experiencing longer gaps between children simply because they're not actively attempting to conceive. It's just way too soon to assume they're limiting their family sizes on purpose!

I don't know if I should say wow or yikes to all that. Thanks for the time it took you to do all this, I appreciate it.

[HurricaneBells]

Dang! @singsingsing that was a detailed and interesting read! Thanks for sharing.

[BachelorToTheRapture]

I think it would be a HUGE leap away from their beliefs if any of the kids intentionally had only 2-3 children. I could easily see them having significantly smaller families than they grew up in by not intentionally trying to have as many babies as possible (such as extended breastfeeding, NFP, not tracking their cycles to constantly try to conceive), but I think most of them will have at least 5-6 kids. 5-6 kids seems large to us, but in IBLP circles it's average or small (based on the knowledge I have). A couple will likely have larger (10+ kids) families, but I think if any are smaller, barring major fertility issues, it's a sign of a major break with the family beliefs. After all, these kids were raised to believe that birth control is murder.

[theotherelise]

One thing @singsingsing's post made me think of was how much the "actively attempting to conceive" factored in to Michelle's procreation pace. There also were way way less distractions for Jim Bob and Michelle for the first 15 years or so. Sure, he was working/campaigning and they had an increasing boatload of kids, but jurisdictions and buddy groups really helped with that. They didn't watch TV, have social media or internet, have a tv show or have to craft their brand, or do speaking engagements.  

Meanwhile some of the kidults (even without full time jobs) have quite a few distractions from actively pursuing procreation at the right times. Also, some of them seem way more tired keeping up with their babies than others. With all the branding, house flipping, sleepless nights... I can see the timelines going slower purely because the fertile windows are not the #1 priority as they were for Michelle.

That said, this is why I can see Kendra being the most likely to follow in Michelle's footsteps. They do seem fairly relaxed with their temperaments, her first pregnancy and childbirth went well, she started  so young, and they've made it very clear that they'd like as many kids as God sees fit. 

[SapphireSlytherin]

I added up all of @singsingsing's hypotheticals and came to 165. ONE HUNDRED SIXTY-FIVE. And that's just from the currently married crop of Duggarlings. Holy Shit.

[singsingsing]

2 hours ago, singsingsing said:

assuming all of these women will remain fertile until the age of 45?

Just so everyone knows, this was supposed to be a ) with a : after it, but the little dejected face unintentionally works SO well in this context!

[Audrey2]

I appreciate @singsingsing's calculations and extrapulations, based on Michelle's fertility rates and the females' rates. For me, though, the only person I feel comfortable predicting children for is Anna. I think it is interesting to see when children 2, 3, and 4 appear, before looking at the patterns and creating predictions based on the patterns. Henry could have been an oops. My best friend from College wanted to have two babies close together, then wait a few years, and have two more close together. While I don't think any of the Duggar kin (including daughters-in-law) are preventing. I'm not sure all of the parents with one child will continue to have a child every 18 months or so.

[SorenaJ]

A lot of the (presumably, Idk if they all are) fundie families related to the Duggars or Bateses seem to have 7-10 (Kellers (8), Burnetts (8), Seewalds (7 (would have expected 8 based on Guinn's age)), Caldwells (8 (soon)), Swansons (9), Keilens (10), Paines (10)) , so that is probably the normal number, if they do "leave it up to God" and are not actively trying. 

That's around a child every two years. 

[Italiangirl]

So it''s Monday Thanksgiving is past and no announce  (at least I haven't miss something). Next opt is around Christmas. 2019 is announcing as a busy year for Duggar's pregnancies....

[Iamtheway]

12 hours ago, SapphireSlytherin said:

I added up all of @singsingsing's hypotheticals and came to 165. ONE HUNDRED SIXTY-FIVE. And that's just from the currently married crop of Duggarlings. Holy Shit.

??

And only 8 of 19 are even married. Sounds like they’ll get their army. 

[singsingsing]

10 hours ago, Audrey2 said:

I appreciate @singsingsing's calculations and extrapulations, based on Michelle's fertility rates and the females' rates. For me, though, the only person I feel comfortable predicting children for is Anna. I think it is interesting to see when children 2, 3, and 4 appear, before looking at the patterns and creating predictions based on the patterns. Henry could have been an oops. My best friend from College wanted to have two babies close together, then wait a few years, and have two more close together. While I don't think any of the Duggar kin (including daughters-in-law) are preventing. I'm not sure all of the parents with one child will continue to have a child every 18 months or so.

It may seem like a small difference, but I’m actually not predicting - I’m speculating. ‘If they have X amount of time between births, this is what would happen’. I’m not predicting that they ARE going to have ‘X amount of time between births’, just showing what would happen if they did.

[Four is Enough]

Still, I'm betting (or am I hoping?) that none of the girls has her ovulation chart right there on the refrigerator as Michelle did, or am I misremembering that?

I'm just hoping that none of them are relentlessly pursuing pregnancy the way Michelle did.

[singsingsing]

2 minutes ago, Four is Enough said:

I'm just hoping that none of them are relentlessly pursuing pregnancy the way Michelle did.

I don't think any of them are. At least, I hope not? I guess out of all of them, there might be one or two who want to go full on quiverfull and try to beat her record. I guess that would make sense. I think Jill might have, once upon a time. And I wonder about Kendra.

[allthegoodnamesrgone]

4 minutes ago, Four is Enough said:

Still, I'm betting (or am I hoping?) that none of the girls has her ovulation chart right there on the refrigerator as Michelle did, or am I misremembering that?

I'm just hoping that none of them are relentlessly pursuing pregnancy the way Michelle did.

I think it is highly unlikely that anyone would relentlessly pursue pregnancies to the lengths Michelle did for as LONG as she did. In the modern world there are only a handful of women who have as many children and Michelle & Kelly Bates do, or got there by giving birth to them all.  I don't' even think Kelly tried as hard to get pregnant as Michelle did.

[MoonFace]

On 11/23/2018 at 10:43 AM, SassyPants said:

Probably of all the disservices that JB and M imparted on their children, that one right there is among the most destructive. 90% of life is showing up on time and with the right attitude. In this department, the majority of the Duggars (and their relations) are 0 for 2.

Duggar time may also be the reason no one holds a real job (working for an outside company) outside the clan is because none of them can keep up with the pressure of being at a job on the employer's scheduled time to start.   

[MoonFace]

7 hours ago, Iamtheway said:

??

And only 8 of 19 are even married. Sounds like they’ll get their army. 

Sorry - but I saw that and all I could think of was 

ONWARD FUNDIE UTERUSES (sung to Onward Christian Soldiers)

 

[JermajestyDuggar]

I say this all the time but you should never assume a fundie will be popping out babies until 45. Because most are not. Actually there are a few fundie quiverful women who didn’t even have a successful pregnancy in their 40s. And most fundie women on FJ got pregnant with their last live birth at 43 or younger.

[JermajestyDuggar]

Age at conception of FJ fundie women with their last pregnancy that resulted in a live birth:

Michelle Duggar: 42 (almost 43)

Guinn Seewald: mid 30s

Becky Bontrager: 39

Lauren Bowers: 38/39

Cheryl Burnett: 39 (almost 40)

Teri Maxwell: 40

Sue Waller: 42

Tammy Paine: 37

Sue Keller: 42

Cathy Arndt: 42

Wendy Jeub: 42

Jeanine Morton: 42

Beall Phillips: late 30s

 

FJ Outliers: 

Kelly Bates: 44.5

Gloria Wissmann: 47 (5.5 year gap since second to last child)

Bobye Holt: 45 (4.5 year gap since second to last child)

 

So if you look at just the FJ fundies who are currently past childbearing age, very few got pregnant with a successful pregnancy past 43. You really aren’t that fertile in your early forties compared to your 20s and 30s. Most of these Duggars could only end up having one or two at the most in their 40s. Or even none. 

[albireo]

More numbers I had on hand/gleaned from Fundie Wiki if you're curious:

Jan Kendall: 41

Lisa Campana: 44 (2 year gap)

Conley Roberts: 44-45 (3 year gap)

Sandy Mueller: 42

Kurina Rose Hale: 44 (not sure of gap)

Jill Keilen: 37ish

Nadine Daming: 45-46 (3 year gap). She was the one who carried a newborn down the aisle at her daughter's wedding.

I concur with @JermajestyDuggar. They might have a kid or two in their forties but not many more.