Thai boys stuck in cave

[FluffySnowball]

4 hours ago, nausicaa said:

Is a 25 year old really a kid? 25 year olds get married, have kids, hold down professional jobs, and obtain masters degrees. Hell, your insurance rates go down at 25 because you're considered more mature and capable of reflection.

I'm sure he feels terrible and didn't do any of this purposely, but I still look at that diagram and wonder why on earth he would have them descend that steepest drop in the middle. Especially when it had been raining and during monsoon season. It would be different if it were just him, but he was taking a lot of children with him. 

It wasn’t raining when they entered and according to my understanding, they never intended to go so far. Instead, they had to retreat when the flood came. 

[Aine]

7 hours ago, SweetLaurel said:

I agree - you are right.    I realize people saying 'wtf were they doing down there' are worried about their kids and making 'sure' theirs wouldn't go into the same scenario by blaming.  I just meant - OMG those poor kids and good for that 25 year old kid keeping all of them alive for ten days.  Can you imagine?   He didn't mean to strand them.  He more than likely thought 'fun time!' and he'd probably been there before.  

I definitely agree  While I don't think the comparison to victim blaming in rape was equal, I think to myself daily that the world needs far more compassion than what many currently show. The "just-world hypothesis/fallacy" has a lot of explaining to do in times like this. So many of us have made many risky decisions, maybe not realizing how risky because of reasoning like "nothing has happened to anyone I know when they did it", but still risky, and thankfully we were the lucky ones who maybe never knew what could have happened or never had to think about it because we were lucky enough not to face it. But people forget those times because thankfully they became forgettable. 

[WasBlind]

It seems right now that if Elon Musk's company can get there and deliver what they say they can- a hugely long and large inflated tube which the boys can crawl out through the water and sharp limestone rocks, this may be their one good hope until after their monsoon season.

There really are no good choices, and as a novice diver who doesn't particularly like scuba diving, I saw many adults in my diving class panic in the totally clear and safe diving tower in which we first learned. The thought of non-swimmers who are weak trying to get out and panicking in the small spaces is horrifying. I don't see how it can work due to the number of people needing to be rescued. If one panics,  they likely all go down. 

Could they stay in place if they have sufficient food, water, and medical supplies until the monsoon season is over in the fall? No one has mentioned sheltering in place in a couple of days in the news. I wonder if something took the option off the table? 

[Aine]

2 minutes ago, WasBlind said:

Could they stay in place if they have sufficient food, water, and medical supplies until the monsoon season is over in the fall? No one has mentioned sheltering in place in a couple of days in the news. I wonder if something took the option off the table? 

I haven't read every article going around (only 3 actually- this thread brought my attention to this as I'm in dissertation hell right now and sort of 'cut off from the world' right now...went and put that in inverted commas because it seemed kind of dark considering this thread  ) but I have to wonder about what happens with their waste (feces and urine) for that amount of time? The potential for disease or it going into the water in the tunnels seems terrible. Obviously that concern is the one that comes up after the potentially torturous psychological effects on the group...although only second because I'm hoping there is some way they can deal with their excrement considering they can get food/water/oxygen to them?

[Beermeet]

Good point about excrement.   I don't know if they have a place away from the main spot they can go or if the water flows away properly to deal with the reality of human waste.  Maybe now they have bags or something. 

I'm praying they beat the odds and get out.  Staying for months may not be doable.  They are already low on oxygen.  Which is hindering them strength wise.  I hope Elon can help them, he's innovative and has equipment and money.  The last article I read said they are trying to get better communication with their families for morale.  As it is they are limited to letters or word of mouth it seems.  At least they were found and have contact and help.  I'm keeping my hopes up!

[WasBlind]

1 hour ago, Aine said:

I haven't read every article going around (only 3 actually- this thread brought my attention to this as I'm in dissertation hell right now and sort of 'cut off from the world' right now...went and put that in inverted commas because it seemed kind of dark considering this thread  ) but I have to wonder about what happens with their waste (feces and urine) for that amount of time? The potential for disease or it going into the water in the tunnels seems terrible. Obviously that concern is the one that comes up after the potentially torturous psychological effects on the group...although only second because I'm hoping there is some way they can deal with their excrement considering they can get food/water/oxygen to them?

Best to you with your dissertation.  

To be frank, the problem of no clean drinking water, the dirty muddy water in the cave, and the smaller amount of feces excrement was present for 7-8 days before the first two British divers reached them, then the doctors arrived. I have to think one team or the other brought rudimentary sanitation for their adult use as well as for the boys and coach's use. . 
It's not been said, but there is a rule I learned in a lifesaver course. It said that humans can go a max. of 3 minutes without oxygen, 3 days without water, and 30 days without food. Going by that rule and knowing there were no backpacks with the boys,  they likely were forced to drink the muddy water which also likely contained their own waste, depending on the water being flowing in their area or being stagnant at least part of the time.

The first reports said they were placed on antibiotics as a precaution, and although it wasn't spelled out, I thought it was probably to try to avoid an infection from the lack of any sanitation.

Whether or not they could stay in the cave is iffy, and could partially depend on whether there could be a dependable necessary supply line with things to keep them healthy or treat a condition that might arise. Two doctors from Thailand have volunteered to stay with them until fall if TPTB decide they are safer in the cave.              We know a  successful rescue is also very iffy with a dive.

Elon's team and system is not there yet, and many people are saying it will have too much pressure exerted by the water flowing in and through the cave's crevices and cuts to remain intact. The Thai gov't. is extremely pressured to get the boys out now by the families. The divers and doctors working with the boys and the coach say there are some who are still too weak to leave via a dive or a dive/ climb/ wade combo. 

I remember the Chilean miners' rescue. I was so elated and happy for them and their wives, children and other family. It was a huge victory for Chile' in general. 
I hope one of the 3 plans works to keep these young people alive and strong enough so the plan to extricate them is not a desperate rushed one. I know most of the world hopes for the best as well. 

 

[laPapessaGiovanna]

14 hours ago, SweetLaurel said:

We are victim blaming?  These are children!  The adult is 25 and probably thought 'hey fun time!'  not - oh hey let me go kill my team of kids!  Is that like  'well, she shouldn't have worn that or been there and she wouldn't have been raped!'.   I realize its the easy way out 'my kid would never be in that situation because!'   Shit happens.  The adult wanted to give the kids an experience others have had.   No reason to blame anyone.  Just get them all out....my heart goes out to the diver's family.   Hope he is the only casualty.  

 

WTF? None blamed the kids. I hope that you don't mean that a 25yo ADULT shouldn't be held responsible for something as monumentally stupid and fricking DANGEROUS as dragging 12 kids in a cave during a monsoon! Nobody made him do it and you can't say that thee danger couldn't be foreseen. Personally I think the whole ordeal is more than enough as a consequence, but really denying his responsibility would be stretching the concept of victim blaming a whole lot too far.

ETA it's true that it wasn't raining when they entered, but forecasts had alerted people about the imminent rain.

Edited July 7, 2018 by laPapessaGiovanna

[VelociRapture]

Did the coach make a bad choice? Yeah. He did. But personally, I don’t think now is really the time to be blaming anyone. There’ll be more than enough time to assign blame and hold the Coach accountable when this is all over and everyone involved is (hopefully) safe. The focus should be on supporting all the people trapped, the rescuers, the families of those trapped, and the family of the brave Navy Seal who died attempting to help them. 

[Rachel333]

5 hours ago, WasBlind said:

Two doctors from Thailand have volunteered to stay with them until fall if TPTB decide they are safer in the cave.

Those doctors are amazing.

[Howl]

Good article from CNN: Cave expert: Why it's so hard to get the kids in Thailand out of the cave

It was updated Thursday, but all the points are still relevant.  As noted early on, one main problem is intense pressure to GET THE KIDS OUT.  From the article: 

Quote

...And this is very hard for rescuers who are used to doing, not waiting. There can be enormous pressure from family, from officials, and from the media to take action. This pressure can cause rescuers to take ill-considered risks...

It's sad, but there are absolutely no good options for rescue, as in no options that won't endanger the kids and their rescuers. As far as I can tell by schematics of the cave in various articles, the most immediately concerning aspect is that there are sumps (water filled passages) on both sides of the area where the kids and coach positioned.  This means that they can literally run out of air.  

Elon Musk's idea of inserting a tube into the water filled passages and letting the kids crawl through that might not be so crazy after all.  The problem is that, in a few spots, the passage is so tight that divers currently have to remove their tanks and either push the tanks ahead or tether them behind to squeeze through.   If the tube was punctured and began to fill with water.....

[Rachel333]

Letters from the boys: https://apnews.com/f4818c397b90498bbf192dca0b7f82a7/Thai-coach-apologizes-to-parents-as-boys-write-they're-OK

[Rachel333]

And here is what the parents have written to the boys and the coach: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jul/07/parents-boys-trapped-thai-cave-tell-coach-dont-blame-yourself-rescuers-race-against-time

Quote

 

The parents of 12 boys stranded inside a northern Thailand cave have written to their children for the first time and to the coach who led them inside, telling him: “Please don’t blame yourself.”

“To all the kids,” one letter, written by the mother of Nattawut Takamsai, 14, said. “We are not mad at you at all. Do take good care of yourself. Don’t forget to cover yourself with blankets as the weather is cold. We’re worried. You will come out soon.”

She wrote to Ekkapol Chantawong, the coach: “We want you to know that no parents are angry with you at all, so don’t you worry about that.”

 

I was talking yesterday with some girls from Thailand who were saying that they feel like Thailand is kind of a mess right now with several high profile tragedies. A tourist boat sank this week, killing at least 40, and an army plane crashed, killing three people.

[nausicaa]

4 hours ago, Rachel333 said:

Those doctors are amazing.

Seriously. This is one of those reminders that there are people who are way better humans than I will ever be. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Howl said:

Elon Musk's idea of inserting a tube into the water filled passages and letting the kids crawl through that might not be so crazy after all.  The problem is that, in a few spots, the passage is so tight that divers currently have to remove their tanks and either push the tanks ahead or tether them behind to squeeze through.   If the tube was punctured and began to fill with water.....

Also, the narrow parts of the cave apparently also have very sharp edges and turns. It seems it would be hard to find a material flexible enough to fit through them while also durable enough not to tear. 

And not to sound really dumb, but where would the water that is currently there go? My understanding is that they have already pumped tons of gallons out, but it has barely made a dent. 1. That's a lot of water pressure to fight against and 2. Isn't there a chance that the water would be pushed into where the boys are?

[nausicaa]

Also, here's an interesting layout of the cave, showing just how narrow it's narrowest parts are:

Spoiler

 

 

 

[Beermeet]

How did they get all the way back there?  Seems impossible!  

[Beermeet]

New article:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/proposed-buddy-dive-plan-rescue-boys-trapped-thai-113404495--abc-news-topstories.html

[candygirl200413]

This entire story has been stressing me out! More of I could never imagine experiencing something like this. 

[HarryPotterFan]

14 hours ago, WasBlind said:

It seems right now that if Elon Musk's company can get there and deliver what they say they can- a hugely long and large inflated tube which the boys can crawl out through the water and sharp limestone rocks, this may be their one good hope until after their monsoon season.

There really are no good choices, and as a novice diver who doesn't particularly like scuba diving, I saw many adults in my diving class panic in the totally clear and safe diving tower in which we first learned. The thought of non-swimmers who are weak trying to get out and panicking in the small spaces is horrifying. I don't see how it can work due to the number of people needing to be rescued. If one panics,  they likely all go down. 

Could they stay in place if they have sufficient food, water, and medical supplies until the monsoon season is over in the fall? No one has mentioned sheltering in place in a couple of days in the news. I wonder if something took the option off the table? 

I read that there is expected heavy rain Sunday. Even with pumping out as much water as possible, heavy rains can cause the water where they are to rise, making the safe place they found flooded. That plus depleted oxygen levels. 

This whole situation is awful. I can’t imagine what the parents are going through. Waiting desperately for their boys to be found, not knowing if they’re alive, the jubilation at finding out that they are all alive, and for that joy to come crashing down when they’re told rescuing them is incredibly dangerous.

I hope these kids, their coach, and parents are able to get the social and mental support they need after this traumatic situation is over. And I hope no other lives are lost.

[Rowan]

15 hours ago, WasBlind said:

There really are no good choices, and as a novice diver who doesn't particularly like scuba diving, I saw many adults in my diving class panic in the totally clear and safe diving tower in which we first learned. The thought of non-swimmers who are weak trying to get out and panicking in the small spaces is horrifying. I don't see how it can work due to the number of people needing to be rescued. If one panics,  they likely all go down. 

I read an article this morning that proposed sedating the boys. Not anesthesia levels that would mean monitoring, but just a twilight sort of level that will reduce their likelihood of panicking and even their O2 consumption. I don't envy the divers having to get them through the narrow sections when they aren't really conscious, but it's certainly a thought. I hope with all of these experts working on it that a successful action is able to happen soon. 

[Beermeet]

33 minutes ago, Rowan said:

I read an article this morning that proposed sedating the boys. Not anesthesia levels that would mean monitoring, but just a twilight sort of level that will reduce their likelihood of panicking and even their O2 consumption. I don't envy the divers having to get them through the narrow sections when they aren't really conscious, but it's certainly a thought. I hope with all of these experts working on it that a successful action is able to happen soon. 

A mild sedative might be a good idea.  Just to level out.  Like bank robbers do before a heist.

[PurpleCats]

Valium would be easy to swim in for 12 people, and I would assume safe? They’d still be functional, but not panicky. 

[Beermeet]

50 minutes ago, PurpleCats said:

Valium would be easy to swim in for 12 people, and I would assume safe? They’d still be functional, but not panicky. 

That's exactly what I was thinking and the drug of choice for the robbers.  I saw a documentary and they use valium because it chills you out but you don't get incapacitated by it.  More like, evening the stress playing field in an intense situation.  I've taken valium and with a small dose, it does just that.  Takes your stress down a few levels without being "drugged".  When I took the full dose recommended it was too much for me.  Uncomfortable.   But in severe stress that same dose did me right.  I wonder if they can communicate with the tandem escape plan.  I hope so.  It's what, a 6 hour trek mostly underwater?  Geez.  Gnarly.  Hopefully doable.  Between the oxygen and incoming rain forecast, seems like they need to do this very soon.  

[HarryPotterFan]

Elon Musk is now trying to build a tiny submarine... https://mashable.com/2018/07/07/elon-musk-spacex-submarine-rescue-thailand-soccer-team-kids/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#pCykbXs8U5q0

It will be carried by divers and small enough to fit through cramped areas. I’m not sure if this is really feasible? He’s definitely tying to come up with new ideas. I hope one works and can be used ASAP.

[Beermeet]

34 minutes ago, HarryPotterFan said:

Elon Musk is now trying to build a tiny submarine... https://mashable.com/2018/07/07/elon-musk-spacex-submarine-rescue-thailand-soccer-team-kids/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link#pCykbXs8U5q0

It will be carried by divers and small enough to fit through cramped areas. I’m not sure if this is really feasible? He’s definitely tying to come up with new ideas. I hope one works and can be used ASAP.

That's the thing, no time to quick build.  Even if they do, it must be built in Thailand because there is definitely no time for shipping.   They do have hand held propeller type things.  I've seen them on FB.  I think those were prototypes tho, maybe not.  Still, ship them over!   

[nausicaa]

1 hour ago, Beermeet said:

T It's what, a 6 hour trek mostly underwater?  Geez.  Gnarly.  Hopefully doable.  Between the oxygen and incoming rain forecast, seems like they need to do this very soon.  

It's a six hour trek for some of the most expert, experienced divers in the world. It will not be six hours for any of these middle school boys who have never scuba dived in their life. They also cannot swim and there are passages that are completely flooded.  One professional, experienced diving Navy SEAL triathlete has already died just trying to navigate it.

The scuba diving option is really not feasible.  Boring a hole through an unknown mountain is probably more feasible than scuba diving.

Some more doom and gloom:

Spoiler

 

More than the risk of flooding is that the oxygen levels are dropping. They've gone from 20% to 15%. If they get down to 8% they'll have about ten minutes before death. That is assuming they don't panic and consume more oxygen in the process. 

Also, there is going to be rain for months. The pumps will only be pumping out the water that will go right back in through rainfall. This week they are forecasting massive amounts. The water will only further drop the O2 levels 

This is bad, you guys. I think the media might be too optimistic after the Chilean mine disaster--which was a better situation in a lot of ways. The mine and its structure were known, there were no risks of flooding, and the men had much more room. Technically they could have stayed down there for months with supplies being delivered regularly. 

I don't think this is going to end well, at all. Best case scenario is a handful of survivors. And even that might take a miracle. I would love to be wrong though. 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2018 by nausicaa