Jump to content
IGNORED

Duggar Data


Recommended Posts

singsingsing

I just want to bring this to the attention of my fellow data/spreadsheet/prediction nerds - there's a Tumblr called 'Duggar Data' and it. is. spectacular.

https://duggardata.tumblr.com/

There was a little discussion about this over in the Bates forum, and we couldn't figure out if it was an FJer running it or not. If it is, please don't feel pressure to out yourself. I just want to share this really cool site with everyone, because I think a lot of you will enjoy it and find it valuable.

(And no, it's not me. I am not REMOTELY smart enough to do something like this. :pb_lol:)

  • Upvote 20
  • Thank You 11
  • Love 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 77
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • justoneoftwo

    9

  • singsingsing

    6

  • SapphireSlytherin

    4

  • BunnyBee

    3

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I just want to bring this to the attention of my fellow data/spreadsheet/prediction nerds - there's a Tumblr called 'Duggar Data' and it. is. spectacular. https://duggardata.tumblr.com/ Ther

RUFUS HELP ME, I GOT MICHELLE.

The author of Duggar Data is an FJ lurker! Well if you're reading this DD, welcome! We'd love to have you (unless you're a troll which I can't imagine).

Posted Images

justoneoftwo

This site is amazing!  I love the analysis of when Jill and Jesse will have their next announcements!  

I will say I'm still holding out hope Jessa will beat Jill's longest spacing record, but we will probably not know until November if thats the case.

Also, it helps for me to see that we could expect a Jill announcement next month, unless she waits longer than she did with Sam.  Knowing the trends is fun and useful for discussions!

Edited by justoneoftwo
  • Upvote 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
BunnyBee

I love the Duggar Data tumblr so much! Whoever runs it needs to branch out to some other fundie families, like the Rods. Even though I did have to take stats for my psych degree it was my hardest classed and I barely passed :lol: But I enjoy reading other peoples data after they have done all the calculations :lol:

  • Upvote 12
Link to post
Share on other sites
BunnyBee
Quote

Adding everything up, 1,888 Duggar Descendants will’ve been born by (or on) December 31, 2060.  If you lost track, here’e the breakdown by generation—

Duggars Born By (or On) December 31, 2060 — 

First Generation—2  (Jim Bob, Michelle)

Second Generation—19  (Josh, Jana, JD, etc.)

Third Generation—278  (Mack, Izzy, Spud, etc.)

Fourth Generation—1,569  (Great–Grands)

Fifth Generation—20  (Great–Great Grands)

Also this simulation is particularly terrifying 

  • Upvote 14
  • WTF 5
  • I Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
albireo

@BunnyBee And right after they start predicting who'll be dead by 2060 (likely just JB+M). Creepy but...mathematically interesting.

  • Upvote 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
justoneoftwo
10 minutes ago, albireo said:

@BunnyBee And right after they start predicting who'll be dead by 2060 (likely just JB+M). Creepy but...mathematically interesting.

It could have been a lot more creepy, if they had looked more deeply into who might be dead (based on health, or things like that, you can get much better predictions than just life expectancy from the social security administration 

  • Upvote 3
  • I Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
NakedKnees
8 minutes ago, albireo said:

@BunnyBee And right after they start predicting who'll be dead by 2060 (likely just JB+M). Creepy but...mathematically interesting.

First of all, what a cool Tumblr! I love it and can't wait to see what else they do.

Secondly, I disagree that this aspect is creepy. I was actually impressed with how the writer tackled that subject, with the well-wishes and "RIP" comments combined with the classic/funny mini golf pic :output_eeMbjt: 

The fact that everyone is mortal is vital to making this type of project interesting and somewhat accurate ("mathematically interesting" is a good way to put it :my_biggrin:), and I just respect the way this blogger went about it.

  • Upvote 8
  • I Agree 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Joyfully_Unavailable
1 hour ago, BunnyBee said:

I love the Duggar Data tumblr so much! Whoever runs it needs to branch out to some other fundie families, like the Rods. Even though I did have to take stats for my psych degree it was my hardest classed and I barely passed :lol: But I enjoy reading other peoples data after they have done all the calculations :lol:

I believe Duggar Data said they were willing to run numbers on Kellers, Rodrigues, Caldwells, etc but the birthdates and wedding dates were needed! Anyone with knowledge of any of these dates please submit them so we can have more spreadsheets!

  • Upvote 7
  • I Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
The Wanderer

I love Duggar Data! I’ve gotten into the habit of looking at it every day.

  • I Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
anjulibai

Wow! My spreadsheet feels so inadequate by comparison!

  • Upvote 1
  • I Agree 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Bethella
2 hours ago, anjulibai said:

Wow! My spreadsheet feels so inadequate by comparison!

me too

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Briefly

That's a fun rabbit hole!  I don't think I need rescue ferrets but it's still one that I'm going to spend a long time on!

  • Upvote 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Tryamon

I love this, but I find it really hard to navigate in the app. How does everyone else do it?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Jinder Roles

Wow! I have never found fundie data interesting but this is really well done. And the anon's ask really good/interesting questions. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
SapphireSlytherin

Can I just say how tickled proud I am that Duggar Data uses SiRen for Josiah + Lauren? LOL

  • Upvote 5
  • Haha 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
finnlassie

Omg, thanks so much for the link! I didn't even know that I need all of this data!

I literally spent my morning going through this blog... :my_angel:

  • Upvote 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
singsingsing

There were a couple asks about twins today, and it got me wondering again about who will be the first Duggar offspring to have twins. Odds are one of them will at one point. I'm trying to figure out who would be best/worst based on how huge of a deal they'd make about it.

Josh & Anna would be bad, because no more children need to be born into that situation, period. But on the other hand, they're quieter on social media and (hopefully?) wouldn't make it into a huge thing.

Jill & Derick would be awful, because I think they would make it into a huge thing, plus with Jill's history it would likely be a risky pregnancy (and God only knows what kind of prenatal care/birth she'd go for).

Jessa & Ben - I hope not, just because of Jessa's constant hinting and winking about twins. But maybe dealing with two kids under two has awakened her to the realities of having multiple very small children and she wouldn't be quite as glib about the possibility in the future?

Jinger & Jeremy - hmmm, neutral. Let's see how they do with one.

Joy & Austin - So far they seem to be keeping pretty quiet and low key. But they're also one of the most extreme couples in terms of religious dogma. And Joy seems to be following in sister mom Jill's footsteps when it comes to pregnancy and childbirth, so ehhhhh...

Joe & Kendra - I kind of have a feeling that Kendra will produce the first set of grandtwins. Kind of neutral on it for them, too.

Josiah & Lauren - ???

  • Upvote 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Satan'sFortress

BEC, but why are there "asks" instead of "questions?" 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
singsingsing
20 minutes ago, Satan'sFortress said:

BEC, but why are there "asks" instead of "questions?" 

It's just Tumblr terminology. I don't really use Tumblr that much, so I have no idea why they're called asks instead of questions. Probably just a way to set them apart from other forums.

  • Upvote 2
  • I Agree 1
  • Thank You 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
SorenaJ
28 minutes ago, Satan'sFortress said:

BEC, but why are there "asks" instead of "questions?" 

I'm not 100 %, but I think it's like, you can have a question within an "ask". So the message is an "ask", and that can contain a question, comment, whatever. 

  • Thank You 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
EyesOpen

So cool...

i cant read far enough back right now. Does he or she predict courtship announcements? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
singsingsing
3 minutes ago, EyesOpen said:

So cool...

i cant read far enough back right now. Does he or she predict courtship announcements? 

I believe so! I think (s)he has an algorithm that predicts when each kid will court based on the average age a Duggar (or Bates) begins courting. Of course, it's just an average - which (s)he totally acknowledges. By which I mean, she's not claiming that every Duggar kid is definitely going to start courting at exactly 20.85 years of age (or whatever it may be) - just that that's the most likely age based on past data.

I scrolled back a bit and found this post: https://duggardata.tumblr.com/post/173771664494/im-not-sure-if-you-have-access-to-her-birth-date

Quote

The typical Female Duggar starts courting at Age 20.45.  Typically, the courtship lasts for 164 Days, pre–proposal.  Finally, it ends in a 1,000+ Guest wedding on a Friday or Saturday, after a brief, ~92–Day engagement.

 

  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
justoneoftwo

I wonder if there is a better way to analyze the twins question.  Each time a Duggar daughter has a pregnancy there is a 3% chance of twins.  This increases after they are 25, and even more after 35.  For Jana the odds may be even as high as 1 in 7.  This is a more complex analysis, but I wonder how it would change it.

  • Upvote 3
  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites



  • Recent Status Updates

    • Jasmar

      Jasmar

      My uncle just died from COVID. He wasn’t that much older than I am, so I kind of grew up with him. Just ten days ago my mom had been pleading with him to get vaccinated, but he wanted to wait to make sure the shots were really safe. I’m kind of devastated.
      · 1 reply
    • PumaLover

      PumaLover

      I just found out my little bonus kid is in a treatment center on a suicide watch tonight. He and I share a hobby and a couple weeks back he opened up to me that he's severely depressed and was wanting to hurt himself. I let his parents know and thankfully he had also been talking to them. I'm just heartbroken because him being in this center means that his parents had to call 911 and have him admitted and I know that was so hard for them to do. He's a young kid and has his whole life ahead of him but just wants to end it all and I don't know how to help him. 
      · 5 replies
    • HerNameIsBuffy

      HerNameIsBuffy

      Middle aged woman with mommy issues...but missing her today.
      She got so much wrong with me, but she had the best intentions and tried so hard. 
      She got so much right, too.  I forget that sometimes.  Sometimes I remember and dismiss it out of spite.  
      “They did the best they could with the tools they had.”  I forgot where I first heard that but I’ve carried it with me like a mantra since my parents passed.   They truly did.  Whatever else was missing, whatever I needed that they couldn’t give, the love was always there.  

      Always. 
      That’s something.
      My confidence in my own abilities.  Faith in my own power.  My own strength.  They gave me that, too.
      That’s also something.  
      They’re why I’m messed up, but they’re also why I’m okay.  
       
      Shit’s complicated.
      She died before I figured out how smart she really was.  Sad thing is I don’t think ever figured that out for herself.  
      Ignore me - just crying in my car waiting to pick up my son.  

       
       
      · 1 reply
    • CuttySark

      CuttySark

      The nice thing about posting about Jewish history is how quickly it flushes out the antisemites. 😘
      · 2 replies
    • choralcrusader8613

      choralcrusader8613

      I've been feeling a shitload of this for a while now about various types of Christians tbh.

      · 0 replies
    • HerNameIsBuffy

      HerNameIsBuffy

      It's Friday so yay!  But sweet Jesus I need it to be the end of the day already.  Crappy week and I'm so ready for it to be over.

      · 0 replies
    • nst

      nst

      I got vaccinated yesterday. In the am I got the email and I was  vaccinated 
      · 0 replies
    • PsyD2013

      PsyD2013

      Exhausted. I need a weekend off the grid.
       
      · 0 replies
    • 47of74

      47of74

      This will make the internetz explode. 
      · 1 reply
    • indianabones

      indianabones

      Making my fifth offer on a house tomorrow! I've gotten pretty attached to this one, too... fingers crossed!
      · 2 replies
  • Recent Blog Entries

×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.