North Korea and South Korea

[AmazonGrace]

Nobody was caught off guard except the White House. 

Memo to self: do not brag about getting the Nobel peace prize before actually doing the thing I'd deserve it for

[Howl]

(yes, it's a satire account)

[GreyhoundFan]

"On North Korea, Trump is getting played by both sides"

Spoiler

Since the moment he agreed on a whim to a summit between himself and Kim Jong Un, President Trump has been almost giddy about the breakthrough he’s about to achieve, even musing about his upcoming Nobel Peace Prize.

But like everything about being president, it’s turning out to be more complicated than Trump understands. Today he’s getting a reminder:

North Korea is rapidly moving the goal posts for next month’s summit between leader Kim Jong Un and President Trump, saying the United States must stop insisting it “unilaterally” abandon its nuclear program and stop talking about a Libya-style solution to the standoff.

The latest warning, delivered by former North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Gye Gwan on Wednesday, fits Pyongyang’s well-established pattern of raising the stakes in negotiations by threatening to walk out if it doesn’t get its way.

This comes just hours after the North Korean regime cast doubt on the planned summit by protesting joint air force drills taking place in South Korea, saying they were ruining the diplomatic mood.

The North Koreans actually have this in common with Trump, who also likes to use threats to walk away as a negotiating tactic. Many years ago Trump reportedly tried to get the George H.W. Bush administration to send him to negotiate arms control with the Soviet Union, saying that his brilliant tactic would be to welcome the Soviet delegation, then shout “F––– you!” and leave the room. The Bush administration for some reason felt that sensitive negotiations should be done by experienced diplomats and not blowhard real-estate developers, so it declined his help.

Back to today: Are these threats from North Korea just gamesmanship? Sure. But they also suggest that the president is getting played, not just by Kim but by some in his own administration.

Threatening to blow up negotiations is a tactic you generally use when you know the other side is powerfully invested in getting to an agreement. That’s the first thing the North Koreans seem to get: As much as they’d like sanctions relief, a thawing of relations with South Korea and an end to threats from the United States, if talks do fall apart they can probably live with the status quo for now.

Trump, on the other hand, has been hyping the possibility of an agreement that results in North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons to an almost absurd degree, given how often these kinds of deals have failed in the past. He clearly wants a “win” he can proclaim as something he accomplished when no other president could. And Kim will use that desire against him.

What does Kim want? Economic assistance and an end to sanctions, obviously. He also wants a summit alongside the leader of the global hegemon, which would grant him enormous prestige. That’s something the United States has withheld from North Korea in the past, but Trump has already granted it. And above all, Kim wants to ensure his own survival and that of his regime.

Which is why most everyone except Trump seems to realize that there is no way Kim is going to give up his nuclear weapons, which he sees — quite rationally — as a guarantee against foreign invasion or a move to depose him.

Here’s where we see how Trump is being played from the other side, most specifically by his new national security adviser, John Bolton. Bolton, who has long advocated that we start bombing North Korea at the earliest possible opportunity, made a point of saying publicly that we should look as a model to the arrangement made with Libya in 2003, in which it gave up its nuclear weapons program in exchange for sanctions relief and a reintegration into the international community.

Which, if you knew nothing about anything, might sound perfectly fine. But to the North Koreans, there’s almost nothing more provocative you could say than bringing up Libya. North Korean officials regularly cite the experience of Libya as precisely the reason they won’t give up their nuclear weapons. Moammar Gaddafi did so, and what happened to him? He was deposed and killed. The same fate befell Saddam Hussein.

Now, Bolton is many things, but stupid and ignorant are not among them. He knew perfectly well how the North Koreans would react if he brought up Libya. And so they did: In a statement by the first vice-minister of foreign affairs, they said the following (forgive the translation; I’m sure it was much more poetic in Korean):

This is not an expression of intention to address the issue through dialogue. It is essentially a manifestation of awfully sinister move to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding the whole of their countries to big powers.

I cannot suppress indignation at such moves of the U.S., and harbor doubt about the U.S. sincerity for improved DPRK-U.S. relations though sound dialogue and negotiations.

For good measure, they said “we do not hide our feeling of repugnance toward” Bolton. Given his desire for a military strike, it seems at least possible, and perhaps likely, that Bolton is trying to plant the seeds of doubt that will ultimately result in a breakdown of talks, after which he can say to the president, “Well, sir, we tried. But you see how unreasonable they are. We have no choice but to strike now.”

So where does this end up? No one knows for sure, but to begin with, the North Korean threats to abandon the summit are just bluster. The summit will happen, because both Trump and Kim want it to. What’s unlikely to happen, however, is Kim agreeing to give up his nuclear weapons, no matter what the United States offers in exchange. But Trump seems to be the only one who doesn’t realize that.

Which is why it’s entirely possible Trump will make some kind of agreement in which the North Koreans pledges to do something that costs them little — curtailing future missile tests, leaving the size of their arsenal where it is now — and which they might renege on anyway, just so he can say he got a win and tell everyone he’s the greatest negotiator in history. North Korea, like everyone else in the world, is realizing not just that this isn’t true, but also that Trump actually believes it — and that as a result, it won’t be that hard to manipulate him.

 

[MarblesMom]

Every time I read something about a meeting with NK, I keep thinking I am reading The Onion.

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AmazonGrace]

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/trump-aides-worry-he-doesnt-get-north-korea-situation.html

Trump Aides Worry He Doesn’t Have Good Grasp on the North Korea Situation
 

Quote

 

We’ve all been there: you’re underprepared for a big final exam, and as the test date approaches you spend too much time worrying and not enough time studying. That’s essentially what’s going on with President Trump right now — except the consequences involve bringing the world closer to nuclear war, not repeating Global History next semester.
 

 

Spoiler

The White House is still reeling after North Korea reverted to acting like North Korea last week, suddenly ditching the conciliatory language, canceling talks with South Korea, and threatening to call off Kim Jong Un’s summit with Trump, which is scheduled for June 12 in Singapore.

On Friday, the Trump administration tried to get things back on track with a concession to North Korea: calling off the joint military exercises with South Korea that led Pyongyang to cancel its meeting with Seoul. Trump also addressed North Korea’s complaint about National Security Adviser John Bolton floating the “Libya model” to denuclearize the North. He somehow managed to contradict Bolton, then repeat the threat that irked Pyongyang.

“The Libyan model isn’t a model that we have at all, when we’re thinking of North Korea,” Trump said. “If you look at that model with Qaddafi, that was a total decimation. We went in there to beat him,” he continued, referring to the U.S. and its allies intervening to help oust Qaddafi just a few years after he agreed to denuclearize.

“Now that model would take place if we don’t make a deal, most likely,” Trump said. “But if we make a deal, I think Kim Jong Un is going to be very, very happy.”

Trump then called South Korean president Moon Jae-in late on Saturday, according to the Washington Post, to get his take on why Pyongyang is taking a public stance so different from what Kim told Moon during their historic meeting last month (though that’s a common North Korean tactic). Moon is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday, so the call was seen as a sign that Trump was too anxious to wait three days.

Indeed, the New York Times reported that Trump has taken to questioning aides and allies on whether they think he should proceed with the summit, despite the risk of political embarrassment. Advisers are said to be worried (rightly) that Trump put himself in a bad position by remarking that “everyone thinks” he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. He’ll have a hard time demanding concessions from North Korea if Kim knows he’s desperate for a win.

But the talks might not even get that far. According to the Times, aides are starting to doubt that Trump will able to conduct an in-depth negotiation with Kim:

The aides are also concerned about what kind of grasp Mr. Trump has on the details of the North Korea program, and what he must insist upon as the key components of denuclearization. Mr. Moon and his aides reported that Mr. Kim seemed highly conversant with all elements of the program when the two men met, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made similar comments about Mr. Kim, based on his two meetings with him in Pyongyang, the North’s capital.

There aren’t any seasoned North Korea negotiators at the White House, but other Trump administration staffers are digging in. A U.S. advance team is in Singapore working on logistics, and South Korean officials said Bolton has beens strategizing with his counterpart in Seoul on a near-daily basis. “It’s true there’s more coordination that needs to be done that hasn’t been done,” one senior U.S. official told the Post. “There’s still time, but not a lot of it.”

It doesn’t appear Trump’s taken that sentiment to heart. Per the Times:

But aides who have recently left the administration say Mr. Trump has resisted the kind of detailed briefings about enrichment capabilities, plutonium reprocessing, nuclear weapons production and missile programs that Mr. Obama and President George W. Bush regularly sat through.

But whatever, if he doesn’t memorize all the details by June 12 he can just write the answers on his hand.

 

I don't know who's dumber, this man or everyone who thought he should be the president.

[AmazonGrace]

Hey Little Rocket Man; if you meet with us we will try not to assassinate you.

 

[MarblesMom]

Well, now the Toddler has cancelled the meeting, but reminded NK we have big weapons.  Yuge.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/24/white-house-pulls-out-summit-with-north-koreas-kim-jong-un.html

[Howl]

Ignore all the articles about the South Korean response.  Just ignore them, because their REAL response was the Korean version of WTF!!!!!!!!!  WHAT THE ACTUAL ELEVENTY 1!!!!1!!11!!!!!!! F**K??????  

I'd also suggest a new commemorative coin be struck ASAP.   I'm thinking an asshole buddies theme would work well.  An asshole buddy is someone that you are real nice to in person, but trash talk them behind their back, or throw shade and then be real nice, and then jerk them around. 

Of course,  the real reason for cancelling the meeting was that it would interfere with Trump's golf schedule.  And as soon as South Korea approves the loan for a Trump project and North Korea approves the construction of a Trump Resort for NK elites,  and while trying to jerk China around on trade, the talks will be back on.

In the meantime, he'll probably end up appointing Dennis Rodman as an envoy to do some basketball diplomacy.  Scwiiiiiiing!

Edited May 24, 2018 by Howl

[AmazonGrace]

Does he still get the Nobel?

[fraurosena]

42 minutes ago, Howl said:

In the meantime, he'll probably end up appointing Dennis Rodman as an envoy to do some basketball diplomacy.  Scwiiiiiiing!

Envoy? Nah, it'll be an ambassadorship for sure! 

[AmazonGrace]

Good news, you can still get the coin!

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[AnywhereButHere]

There’s a shock. Whatever sows as much chaos as possible. I can’t decide if he does it on purpose, or is his mind just that disordered? 

[AmazonGrace]

Why Kim Jong Un is better than Bob: you can lie to Kim Jong Un

 

[laPapessaGiovanna]

3 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Why Kim Jong Un is better than Bob: you can lie to Kim Jong Un

 

Please tell me it's the onion again! We NEED a facepalm reaction in this forum!

[Howl]

Rudy Giuliani said Trump is more likely to eventually sit down with Kim Jong Un than with Robert Mueller: "At least they’re not going to try to trap him into Korean perjury.”  

You know, Team Trump Rudy  has it down pretty well.  Always look for the subtext that subverts truth.

The subtext is that Kim Jong Un is a straight shooter and Trump is the honest naif who will be led into a carefully disguised perjury trap by the wily and dishonest (and let's face it, evil) witch hunter Mueller.  Trust me, the base is eating this up. 

 

Quote

On 5/24/2018 at 10:48 AM, AmazonGrace said:
Does he still get the Nobel?

I'm sure there's a jet on standby, just in case. 

In the meantime, an aide with young children has probably found a fake gold medal that says "Winner" dangling on a colorful ribbon and presented it to him, which should keep him pacified for the time being.  

Edited May 25, 2018 by Howl

[GreyhoundFan]

22 minutes ago, Howl said:

In the meantime, an aide with young children has probably found a fake gold medal that says "Winner" dangling on a colorful ribbon and presented it to him, which should keep him pacified for the time being.

That, or a set of keys, like my BFF used to give her son to keep him occupied. Anything shiny that makes a noise would do for the TT. Maybe a toy tank that he could roll around his desk, going, "vroom, vroom, bam, bam".

[Cartmann99]

On 5/24/2018 at 10:48 AM, AmazonGrace said:

Does he still get the Nobel?

There's a meme on Twitter about Trump's Nobel prize. It has a picture of Trump and Mueller together, and down at the bottom it says:

"Nobel prize?!? We said no bail, surprise!!

[AmazonGrace]

Wait, I thought we were supposed to give him credit for pulling out of a bad deal 

 

[fraurosena]

11 hours ago, AmazonGrace said:

Wait, I thought we were supposed to give him credit for pulling out of a bad deal 

 

That was until he found out about missing the Nobel Prize! Now he's desperately scrambling like a dotard trying to get  into the talks that North and South Korea are having in the DM today, hugging it out without him.

North and South Korean leaders hold surprise meeting

Quote

The leaders of North and South Korea held a surprise meeting Saturday, their second in a month, two days after President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for two hours at the Demilitarized Zone, the South Korean presidency said in a statement.

The two "exchanged their opinions" on among other things successfully carrying out a future US-North Korea summit, according to the statement. On Thursday, Trump called off a June 12 summit with Kim in Singapore but then told reporters Friday he's still open to a conference.

Moon will announce the result of his meeting with Kim on Sunday morning local time, the South Korean statement said.

In a tweet Friday, Trump maintained "very productive talks" were continuing on the North Korean summit.

"We are having very productive talks with North Korea about reinstating the Summit which, if it does happen, will likely remain in Singapore on the same date, June 12th., and, if necessary, will be extended beyond that date," Trump wrote.

[presiduncial tweet]

Moon, who has been a mediator between Trump and Kim, called an emergency meeting in the middle of the night after Trump called off the June summit in a letter to Kim.

In canceling the meeting, Trump cited hostile comments from top North Korean officials as well as concern about the country's commitment to giving up its nuclear weapons.

US officials said the final straw came when a North Korean Foreign Ministry official called Vice President Mike Pence a "political dummy" and hinted that Pyongyang was ready for a "nuclear showdown" should diplomacy fail.

But a North Korean Foreign Ministry official said Friday that Kim was still willing to meet with Trump "at any time."

Saturday's meeting at the DMZ followed a daylong summit last month in which Moon and Kim embraced, planted a tree and talked alone for more than 30 minutes. In April, the leaders also signed a declaration that commits the two countries to denuclearization and talks to bring a formal end to the 65-year-old conflict. It was the first time leaders from the two countries had met in 10 years.

n separate speeches last month, Kim and Moon promised a new era. Addressing the world's media live on television for the first time, Kim said the Koreas "will be reunited as one country." Moon said: "There will not be any more war on the Korean Peninsula."

A final peace deal for the two Koreas must also involve China and the United States, both of whom were participants in the original conflict that began in 1950 when the North invaded the South. An armistice was signed in 1953, but no formal peace treaty was ever concluded, and technically, the peninsula remains at war.

 

[GreyhoundFan]

Shaking my head: "The U.S. is trying to find a discreet way to pay for Kim Jong Un’s hotel during the summit"

Spoiler

SINGAPORE — At an island resort off the coast of Singapore, U.S. event planners are working day and night with their North Korean counterparts to set up a summit designed to bring an end to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

But a particularly awkward logistical issue remains unresolved, according to two people familiar with the talks. Who’s going to pay for Kim Jong Un’s hotel stay?

The prideful but cash-poor pariah state requires that a foreign country foot the bill at its preferred lodging: the Fullerton, a magnificent neoclassical hotel near the mouth of the Singapore River, where just one presidential suite costs more than $6,000 per night.

The mundane but diplomatically fraught billing issue is just one of numerous logistical concerns being hammered out between two teams led by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagin and Kim’s de facto chief of staff, Kim Chang Son, as they strive toward a June 12 meeting.

After weeks of uncertainty, President Trump called off the summit last week, blaming “open hostility” from North Korea. But a flurry of diplomacy across two continents got the meeting back on track, and Trump announced Friday that he will attend as initially planned.

When it comes to paying for lodging at North Korea’s preferred five-star luxury hotel, the United States is open to covering the costs, the two people said, but it’s mindful that Pyongyang may view a U.S. payment as insulting. As a result, U.S. planners are considering asking the host country of Singapore to pay for the North Korean delegation’s bill.

“It is an ironic and telling deviation from North Korea’s insistence on being treated on an ‘equal footing,’ ” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Still, the heavily sanctioned and isolated regime has a long history of making bold monetary demands.

During the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, South Korea set aside $2.6 million to cover travel accommodations for a North Korean cheering squad, an art troupe and other members of the visiting delegation.

At the same Games, the International Olympic Committee paid for 22 North Korean athletes to travel to the event.

In 2014, when then-U.S. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. visited North Korea to retrieve two prisoners, his North Korean hosts served him an “elaborate 12-course Korean meal,” the veteran intelligence official said, but then insisted that he pay for it.

“These norms were laid in the early 2000s, when Seoul’s so-called ‘sunshine policy’ took off,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, an expert on Korea at Tufts University, referring to a policy of rapprochement associated with former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung. “North Korea can build nukes and ICBMs, but claim they are too poor to pay for foreign travel costs.”

Any payment for North Korea’s accommodations would run afoul of Treasury Department sanctions, said Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Treasury official. The transaction would require the Office of Foreign Assets Control to “temporarily suspend the applicability of sanctions” through a waiver, she said.

The United States is expected to request these waivers from the United Nations and Treasury for a range of payments associated with North Korea’s travel, but a long list of exemptions could draw scrutiny.

“There are legitimate mechanisms built in for exemptions depending on the circumstance, but this could run into public and political criticism and send the wrong message to North Korea,” said Duyeon Kim, a visiting fellow at the Korean Peninsula Future Forum, a nonpartisan think tank in Seoul.

Figuring out how to pay Pyongyang’s hotel tab won’t be the only unusual planning obstacle that comes with hosting an event with the isolated regime. The country’s outdated and underused Soviet-era aircraft may require a landing in China because of concerns it won’t make the 3,000-mile trip — a visit that would probably require a plausible cover story to avoid embarrassment. Alternatively, the North Koreans might travel in a plane provided by another country.

Many of those issues have been secondary to the major decision of selecting a venue space for the two leaders to meet. For that, the two sides are believed to have settled on the Capella hotel on the resort island of Sentosa, the people familiar with the talks said. Situated off Singapore’s southeast coast, the hotel boasts a mix of colonial-style buildings and curvy modern edifices.

On Wednesday, a Washington Post reporter witnessed construction crews erecting tents and other facilities required for a large event. The reporter was later instructed to leave the premises after interacting with the U.S. planning delegation, which is staying at the resort. The resort’s relative seclusion appealed to security-conscious U.S. and North Korean officials.

During Trump’s visit to Singapore, he is expected to stay at the Shangri-La, a 747-room hotel that is accustomed to high-security events. It hosts the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, a security conference that attracts dozens of ministers of defense and state.

White House and State Department officials repeatedly declined to comment on the advance team planning, keeping those discussions more opaque than the substance of the negotiations.

Rexon Ryu, a former White House official who dealt with the North Korea nuclear issue, said the North Korean side in particular has an interest in keeping those discussions quiet.

“These talks go to the question of security, and if anything, that’s probably most immediately paramount to Kim,” he said. “I think for many folks on the North Korean side, this is more important than the content of the negotiations.”

 

[AmazonGrace]

 

[Howl]

16 hours ago, GreyhoundFan said:

Shaking my head: "The U.S. is trying to find a discreet way to pay for Kim Jong Un’s hotel during the summit"

There's this guy, ALWAYS been reliable; I mean the BEST guy, takes care of YUGE problems, payoffs, money laundering, influence, Russians, porn stars, Bunnies, any YUGE payout, he's got it covered.   Discreet, money can't be traced. Great guy, the best, loyal.  Not taking calls from him right now, though.......

Edited June 2, 2018 by Howl

[AmazonGrace]

Trump made KJU great again, he's the popular kid now