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habert

2nd Gen Duggar/Bates birth comparison

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habert

I had some time to kill today, and I made these charts comparing how the Duggar Kidults and Bates Kidults compare to their moms when it comes to making babies. I think it's actually pretty interesting, and fj is the only place in the world I can imagine where anyone might even find it remotely interesting as I do. In any case, it's mostly just for my enjoyment and reference (I'm a fundie and math junkie I guess lmao) but I thought I might share it just in case any of you all were interested in it. 

If you're wondering why I didn't do anything more productive with my time today, don't worry I am too.

Anyway, here it is

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ShebrewDefrauder

Thanks for making this! It is pretty fascinating to see that in terms of the time they've been married Zach, Erin, Alyssa and Josh all seem to be keeping up with their parents pretty evenly. But when it comes to their actual age, they are all catching up to their parents, with the exception of Alyssa who got married pretty young. What is truly insane to me is that by Josh's age (which is also my age since I was born in '88) Michelle already had six kids and a seventh on the way, and likewise Kelly had five with the sixth on the way. I can't imagine myself having one kid right now, let alone six little hellions. They really did get started early! 

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19 cats and counting

Interesting chart.  

For the 2nd generation, it looks like they're either not as fertile as their mothers, or are spacing out kids longer.  Most of the Duggar and Bates kids are about 18 months apart (average--  some are 13/14 months like Lawson/Nathan and Jessa/Jinger)

The furthest spaced Duggar siblings are Josh and Jana/JD (with a confirmed miscarriage in between--- 22 months) and Johannah and Jennifer (22 months-- no confirmed miscarriage in between).  

The furthest spaced Bates kids are Ellie and Callie (27 months).  I think there is at least one confirmed miscarriage in the window between them (2007-2009) but I'm not 100% positive.  Possibly the Duggar road trip gas station pregnancy test baby.  

3rd generation (assumes kids in utero are born on their due date)
Mack and Michael (21 months)
Michael and Marcus (2 years)
Marcus and Meredith (25 months)
Meredith is not a confirmed big sister.
Izzy is not a confirmed big brother
Spurge is not a confirmed big brother

Bradley and Kaci (21 months)
Allie is not a confirmed big sister
Carson and Brooklyn (15 months)

Looking forward, it will be interesting to see if the grandchildren have similar spacing as their parents/aunts/uncles.  We just had two fundie grandchild first birthdays where they are still only children.  Watch this space.

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Bad Wolf
42 minutes ago, nst said:

well I hope Anna gets her tubes tied 

I'd prefer to see a vasectomy for Joshy boy.

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SassyPants

Interesting- Thanks for doing the chart, OP.

I hope the spacing expands. No 2 parents can properly care for litters.

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RosyDaisy

I'm thinking some won't breed well in captivity.

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Wenny

Jeez I am the same age that michelle had 4 kids and 5 months pregnant and I have 1 born and 3 months pregnant. Our age gap is 3 years. 

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princessmahina

When Michelle was my age she had three kids and Kelly had two. I feel way too young to have that many children.

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theinvisiblegirl

This is really great, @habert! Thank you for making them. Things like this are very interesting. I'm interested to see how the pattern continues over the months/years. Of course, you may not update it for that long :P 

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crazysnark

Kelly is way more fertile than Michelle. She got pregnant 4-6 months PP almost every time without fail. When she was younger the longest she went was between Zach and Michael. She had no twins and quite a few miscarriages. I think Erin is as fertile as Kelly as she has been pregnant 5 times and once she figured out her medical issue the babies came quickly. I think Whitney won't have quite as bit of a space between Kaci and number three. The only reason there was a "big" gap was because Zach was in a live in police academy. I think Tori even hinted at that during an episode. I can only see Alyssa having 3 or 4.

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Meh
Dandruff

I think both Kelly and Michelle were actively trying for full-as-possible quivers.  IIRC, Kelly and Gil had decided to maximize the "children are blessings" biblical promise, and Michelle and Jim Bob were atoning for having used BC and (according to their doctor) potentially causing the loss of J'Caleb.  Their kids might have somewhat different philosophies, some may be less fertile, and so may be their spouses.

Regardless, there are probably going to be a LOT of Bates grandchildren and I suspect a lesser lot of Duggar grandchildren (they're not marrying them off as quickly).  It'll be interesting to see which of the kids go into double digits.  I doubt any of them will have nineteen though.

 

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19 cats and counting
41 minutes ago, crazysnark said:

Kelly is way more fertile than Michelle. She got pregnant 4-6 months PP almost every time without fail. When she was younger the longest she went was between Zach and Michael. She had no twins and quite a few miscarriages. I think Erin is as fertile as Kelly as she has been pregnant 5 times and once she figured out her medical issue the babies came quickly. I think Whitney won't have quite as bit of a space between Kaci and number three. The only reason there was a "big" gap was because Zach was in a live in police academy. I think Tori even hinted at that during an episode. I can only see Alyssa having 3 or 4.

Zach and Michael are actually pretty close.  Zach's birthday is late December (after xmas) and Michael's is January of the following year.  

Just checked-- 12/30/88 and 1/23/90 so that's less than 13 months.

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crazysnark
Just now, 19 cats and counting said:

Zach and Michael are actually pretty close.  Zach's birthday is late December (after xmas) and Michael's is January of the following year.  

Just checked-- 12/30/88 and 1/23/90 so that's less than 13 months.

OOPS I meatn Michael and Erin. You are right Zach and Michael are super close. I couldnt imagine having a 13 month old and a newborn. Insane! Michael was 7 months when Kelly got pregnant with Erin. 

 

I sound like a wierdo for knowing this stuff. Damn you FJ

What I also find interesting is how masculine the kids names were until Alyssa. It also wasn't until when Alyssa was born that they started making the girls wear skirts. Following Alyssa the girls names started getting more girly and cutesy. It could just be a coincidence tho!

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EmCatlyn
3 hours ago, Dandruff said:

...

 Michelle and Jim Bob were atoning for having used BC and (according to their doctor) potentially causing the loss of J'Caleb.     . . . 

 

Was it their doctor??  I thought it was their pastor.   

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theinvisiblegirl
1 hour ago, EmCatlyn said:

Was it their doctor??  I thought it was their pastor.   

They must have gone to a "good, Christian doctor" who gave them some unhelpfully false information.

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OrchidBlossom

Ugh at my age Michelle had four kids and Kelly had three and each had one on the way. I cannot even imagine. Then again. I don't want kids at all, so there is that. 

Of all the Bates kids, I will be most interested to see how Erin and Chad plan (or don't plan) their family. I know people saw Erin's quick second pregnancy as a sign of adherence to the party line, but I don't necessarily agree. I don't want kids, but I have a medical issue that would make conception difficult/impossible for me earlier than for most women. If I wanted kids I would need to pop em out right quick, and I can understand the possibility that maybe Erin and Chad are trying to get a few blessings while Erin is younger and better able to handle difficult pregnancies and constant medication, after which maybe they would stop the medication or even be persuaded to prevent pregnancy (though I doubt this). I'm not saying that is what they're doing, it is totally possible (maybe even probable, unfortunately) that they're gonna keep her on a constant stream of medication until she hits menopause so she can carry many fetuses to term. I just don't want to judge her on that just yet, unless it seems like they are sacrificing her health for an excess of blessings. I have a bit of a soft spot for Erin and Alyssa (though for some reason, an intense dislike of Michael, maybe just because of Brandon who I think is a huge jerk) so I would love to see either or both of them limit their family sizes in some way, though I am definitely not hopeful for that by any means.

ETA: I would love to see ANY of them limit their family size, I just meant as I particularly favor those two girls it would particularly pull my heartstrings a bit to see them not give their lives over to being baby factories. 

Edited by OrchidBlossom

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EmCatlyn
1 hour ago, theinvisiblegirl said:

They must have gone to a "good, Christian doctor" who gave them some unhelpfully false information.

Yep.  I looked it up and found the following:

Quote

"Something we didn’t know is that the pill can allow women to get pregnant, but then it can be aborted. That’s what happened with Michelle… She went on the pill after Josh and then got pregnant, and then the pill actually caused a miscarriage, and so that was really when we started examining this. We started looking at the fine print of the contraception, and it said this could happen, and then we talked to a Christian doctor, and he explained this to us.”  

    Duggars blame birth control.  Inquistr Oct. 2014.

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crazysnark

It's not so much that I see the second baby close in age as being a sign of them towing the party line but the fact that she has been pregnant 5 freakin times in 2 years and suffered through 3 back to back miscarriages without saying "hey let's chill out a bit here"

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OrchidBlossom
11 minutes ago, crazysnark said:

It's not so much that I see the second baby close in age as being a sign of them towing the party line but the fact that she has been pregnant 5 freakin times in 2 years and suffered through 3 back to back miscarriages without saying "hey let's chill out a bit here"

Well, I guess that's sort of my point. You're a young fundie couple, you've been married a few months, you DO want kids (I mean we can debate back and forth how much Erin knows she has a choice there but let's take her at her word she likes kids and wants to have them aside from fundie pressure) and you're newlyweds anyway so it's a matter of time, you think. You get pregnant. Yay! The lord blessed you, whatever. You miscarry. It's really sad, but you know that it happens sometimes, maybe you feel pressure to conceive again quickly because ATI blames the mother for miscarriages and is once again terrible. You conceive again, you're extra careful, you still miscarry. You're a little worried, maybe some people would have seen a doctor, but I personally know women who had multiple miscarriages very close together and then conceived, I assume Erin also knows of women who had a few miscarriages and then conceived and filled their quiver. But then you miscarry a third time and you see a doctor and you're told you have fertility issues, it's a really scary thing for anyone but I'm sure especially for a fundie woman. And that is where what I said comes in. She may want to complete her family a little earlier, may want to space kids as close together as she can reasonably do, because she is worried about what this means for the future. Fertility issues only get worse with age, as a rule. 

I'm not saying by any means this is what is happening or even that I think it's what is happening. I think it is fairly likely they'll still try to have a bijillion kids, as much as I would like to see otherwise. I'm saying for me, this isn't evidence of anything at all. It's neither evidence of toeing the party line nor stepping away from it. Fertility and conception are so personal and so intimate, and issues with them can be traumatic, that I think plenty of non-fundies would make the same choices in her circumstances. To me, her behavior isn't telling of anything one way or the other, it's just a really personal choice. And as I said I know of women who had multiple miscarriages in short order but went on to have healthy kids, Erin probably thought she just had to keep trying (especially given their limited education). That is why I am so interested to see what choices Erin makes further on in the future, I think that will be a much better indicator of where she is in relation to the fundie lifestyle than what has happened so far.

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habert
7 hours ago, crazysnark said:

Kelly is way more fertile than Michelle. She got pregnant 4-6 months PP almost every time without fail. When she was younger the longest she went was between Zach and Michael. She had no twins and quite a few miscarriages. I think Erin is as fertile as Kelly as she has been pregnant 5 times and once she figured out her medical issue the babies came quickly. I think Whitney won't have quite as bit of a space between Kaci and number three. The only reason there was a "big" gap was because Zach was in a live in police academy. I think Tori even hinted at that during an episode. I can only see Alyssa having 3 or 4.

Michael and Zach are actually 13 months apart. Off hand I also know that Lawson and Nathan are 13 months apart and Alyssa and Tori are 13 months apart. Kelly's largest gap is 20 plus months between Ellie and Callie, I believe because of a miscarriage but not sure. Michael and Erin are 16 months apart, but a few of the kids are 17 months apart. This is of course going by month only, not date. Besides Callie and Ellie though all the kids are literally within 17 months of each other , it's insane  

michelle has a lot more varied lengths, but Jessa/Jinger, Jinger/Joe, Joy/LITERALLY TWINS JED AND JER are all 13 months from each other!!!!! 

Mapping them out blows my mind it's insane what these two women put their bodies through 

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crazysnark
1 minute ago, habert said:

Michael and Zach are actually 13 months apart. Off hand I also know that Lawson and Nathan are 13 months apart and Alyssa and Tori are 13 months apart. Kelly's largest gap is 20 plus months between Ellie and Callie, I believe because of a miscarriage but not sure. Michael and Erin are 16 months apart, but a few of the kids are 17 months apart. This is of course going by month only, not date. Besides Callie and Ellie though all the kids are literally within 17 months of each other , it's insane  

michelle has a lot more varied lengths, but Jessa/Jinger, Jinger/Joe, Joy/LITERALLY TWINS JED AND JER are all 13 months from each other!!!!! 

Mapping them out blows my mind it's insane what these two women put their bodies through 

I misspoke I meant Michael and Erin who are a whopping 17 Months apart. Haha. In the beginning with this exception she was popping them out every 13-14 months. INSANE!! My daughter just turned 2 last month and is so clingy and is such a baby to me. I can't imagine having 2 other children younger than her. 

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Bethella

paging @anjulibai this seems to be right up your alley (IIRC you're the one who has the spreadsheet for predicting when a fundy's next baby is due)

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elliha

I get having one kid and having another at 15-24 months. I don't get doing it over and over and over for so many years. My sister had her first 3 over 3,5 years. She admits to it being hard but not impossible. I do think her waiting another 11 years until she had another one does say something. I have one daughter and pregnant with another child due the same month she will have her 4th birthday. It feels just about the right space. It took to her being 2,5 almost 3 years before I felt ready for another one. I think I could have done 2 years and not killed myself but it would have been extremely hard for me. I do dream about 3 kids and this might mean slightly closer spacing between 2 and 3 but no shorter than 2 years.

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JesusCampSongs

So, at my age of 31, Kelly and Michelle both had 9 kids. 

There's not enough fuck that in the world for this. omg. My cat is plenty, thanks.

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