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Realistic scenario for the elections


Sundaymorning
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Now, I'm not from the US, but since basically everything the US does affects the rest of the world too, I'm very interested in US politics. And I have to say, I'm also very concerned. Especially with the Republican front-runner candidates who are simply insane. In fact, if I were a US citizen, I'd rather vote for Bernie Sanders than for someone like Trump or Cruz, or one of the other Republican loonies, and I'm definitely not a social democratic or even socialist by far. 

Since we have some members here who actually work or have worked in politics, or otherwise seem to know a lot about that topic, I'm interested, what do you think will happen?

Will Trump really get the Republican nomination? And if yes, does he have any chance to actually win the main election? And if not Trump, who else will be the Republican candidate?

And what about the Democrats? Do you think Sanders will win? Or will it be HRC?

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At this point I really wouldn't be surprised to see a Trump v. Sanders presidential race.

Trump is basically dominating the republican field.

And I think a lot of democrats are generally frustrated with Hillary.

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Mayor Bloomberg said he might run as an Independent if the nominees are Sanders and Trump. He'd be a really tempting choice for many moderates if we're faced with two people on extreme opposite sides.

 

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17 hours ago, Sundaymorning said:

Will Trump really get the Republican nomination? And if yes, does he have any chance to actually win the main election? And if not Trump, who else will be the Republican candidate?

And what about the Democrats? Do you think Sanders will win? Or will it be HRC?

Eight months ago, I would have excluded Trump as being the Republican nominee. I've concluded there's nothing this man can say or do, that would detour his nomination. The Republican National Committee, under the leadership of Reince Priebus, has lost control of the politics within the party. They allowed their party to be over-ran by extremist, and now our country must suffer the consequence of their mismanagement. If by some strange twist, Trump isn't the nominee, I believe the establishment Republican sector of the party, would probably desire Rubio.

Concerning Democratic party. Unless something completely disastrous happens within Secretary Clinton's campaign, she will likely be the nominee.  She appeals to moderate and conservative Democrats, some Independents, as well as long time supporters throughout the political spectrum. If Trump is nominated, I imagine some moderate Republicans may lean her way.  

As to the question could Trump win the election?                                            

Personally I feel if Democrats/Independents don't get out and VOTE, Yes he could.  If we turnout like we did in 2008, I don't think he has a chance. It will certainly be interesting, to say the least.

11 hours ago, HarryPotterFan said:

Mayor Bloomberg said he might run as an Independent if the nominees are Sanders and Trump. He'd be a really tempting choice for many moderates if we're faced with two people on extreme opposite sides.

 

Good point @HarryPotterFan, Bloomberg would be a viable choice for moderates. 

Edited by ALM7
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I think Rubio will be the Republican nominee.  I really don't think Trump will pull off the Republican nomination.  Cruz might, but I think it's more likely he'll win the Iowa caucus and then fade back, a la Rick Santorum last time around.  I think Hillary will get the nomination, but at this point, I think it's possible that Sanders will pull an Obama and surge ahead at the end.  Here are my predictions for the general election:

Trump vs. Hillary: Hillary wins

Trump vs. Sanders: Sanders wins

Cruz vs. Hillary: Hillary wins

Cruz vs. Sanders: Too close to call.

Rubio vs. Hillary: Too close to call.

Rubio vs. Sanders: Rubio wins

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Just now, Firiel said:

I think Rubio will be the Republican nominee.  I really don't think Trump will pull off the Republican nomination.  Cruz might, but I think it's more likely he'll win the Iowa caucus and then fade back, a la Rick Santorum last time around.  I think Hillary will get the nomination, but at this point, I think it's possible that Sanders will pull an Obama and surge ahead at the end.  Here are my predictions for the general election:

Trump vs. Hillary: Hillary wins

Trump vs. Sanders: Sanders wins

Cruz vs. Hillary: Hillary wins

Cruz vs. Sanders: Too close to call.

Rubio vs. Hillary: Too close to call.

Rubio vs. Sanders: Rubio wins

@Firiel, I think you nailed every scenario! I hope you're right on Trump not being nominated lol

Edited by ALM7
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I really do not want Bloomberg to jump in, although I too read that he is thinking about joining the race. This election is already nothing more than a very bad "reality"show. Add another rich Manhattanite and let the headlines write themselves. The guy with the Brooklyn accent fighting against the wealthy. David and Golitith! On issues, Bloomberg is too authoritative. 

I don't think Clinton's record is very good. She voted to go to war, her policies favour the status qou. She took campaign funding from energy companies who favour fossil fuel extraction. She's not going to end the war on drugs or get rid of for profit prisons. I doubt she would push for single payer heath care. She's just a continuation of the establishment. It actually concerns me that so many young voters like her. College is the time to be radical! 

One interesting thing could come from the Trump getting the nom. He'll have to disclose his finances, and he really doesn't want to. Shady stuff might pop up, or he might rage quit. Fun times!

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I kept thinking that Trump would fall behind eventually, but sadly that hasn't happened yet. Six months ago I would have said he wouldn't get the Republican nomination, but now I'm not so sure. The fact that he remains so popular while saying so many ignorant and hateful things really scares me for my country.

If he doesn't get the nomination, I predict that he will do a third-party run in spite of his promise not to. 

I hope that Bloomberg doesn't run. I don't think he's likely to win, but in a Trump-Sanders election scenario, I think he's likely to take more votes away from Sanders than Trump.

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I was dead sure that Trump wouldn't have made it past the first debate. I was dead sure that he had finally overplayed his hand each time he made some outrageously hateful/ignorant/bigoted remark. I was dead sure he'd show up for last night's debate. I'd like to say I'm dead sure he won't get the nomination, but clearly, I've got a lousy track record. I have to continue to HOPE he won't but at this point A. I honestly don't know what to think and 2. the alternatives are just as bad, if not worse.

I cast my first vote in 1972 and I've NEVER been this afraid of what's happening in this country. The lunatics are taking over the asylum.

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2 hours ago, Maggie Mae said:

I really do not want Bloomberg to jump in, although I too read that he is thinking about joining the race. This election is already nothing more than a very bad "reality"show. Add another rich Manhattanite and let the headlines write themselves. The guy with the Brooklyn accent fighting against the wealthy. David and Golitith! On issues, Bloomberg is too authoritative. 

I don't think Clinton's record is very good. She voted to go to war, her policies favour the status qou. She took campaign funding from energy companies who favour fossil fuel extraction. She's not going to end the war on drugs or get rid of for profit prisons. I doubt she would push for single payer heath care. She's just a continuation of the establishment. It actually concerns me that so many young voters like her. College is the time to be radical! 

One interesting thing could come from the Trump getting the nom. He'll have to disclose his finances, and he really doesn't want to. Shady stuff might pop up, or he might rage quit. Fun times!

Bloomberg also likes to to buy his way into everything. I am not sure how another corporate oligarch is a good choice for anyone.

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I think @Firiel's got mostly the right idea.

Here's my possible scenarios.

Democratic nomination: Hillary, but maybe not by as large a margin as I'd originally thought. Barring any major scandals, in which case Sanders will go. However, I'm not convinced Sanders can win over the moderates/moderate republicans.

Republican nomination: Cruz, possibly Rubio. I think Trump is more likely than I would have said in September, but I don't imagine his supporters will actually have good voter turnout.

General Election predictions/possibilities:

Clinton vs Cruz: Clinton wins, barring any major scandals, terrorist attacks, or economic slumps.

Clinton vs Rubio: Same as above, but by a smaller margin than Cruz.

Clinton vs Trump (lol): Same as above, but by a laughably big margin, as Latinx people, other PoC, and women turn out to polls in record numbers.

Sanders vs Trump: Bernie might have a chance, if the liberal voter turnout is good. If nothing else, it'd be entertaining to watch Bernie beat Trump.

Sanders vs. Cruz: He might be okay, but this would worry me.

Sanders vs Rubio: We're screwed.

I'm predicting a Clinton vs Cruz right now. But who knows?

Making sure my voter registration is up to date. Gotta keep the Republicans out of the White House.

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3 hours ago, ShepherdontheRock said:

I think @Firiel's got mostly the right idea.

Here's my possible scenarios.

Democratic nomination: Hillary, but maybe not by as large a margin as I'd originally thought. Barring any major scandals, in which case Sanders will go. However, I'm not convinced Sanders can win over the moderates/moderate republicans.

Republican nomination: Cruz, possibly Rubio. I think Trump is more likely than I would have said in September, but I don't imagine his supporters will actually have good voter turnout.

General Election predictions/possibilities:

Clinton vs Cruz: Clinton wins, barring any major scandals, terrorist attacks, or economic slumps.

Clinton vs Rubio: Same as above, but by a smaller margin than Cruz.

Clinton vs Trump (lol): Same as above, but by a laughably big margin, as Latinx people, other PoC, and women turn out to polls in record numbers.

Sanders vs Trump: Bernie might have a chance, if the liberal voter turnout is good. If nothing else, it'd be entertaining to watch Bernie beat Trump.

Sanders vs. Cruz: He might be okay, but this would worry me.

Sanders vs Rubio: We're screwed.

I'm predicting a Clinton vs Cruz right now. But who knows?

Making sure my voter registration is up to date. Gotta keep the Republicans out of the White House.

Good analysis..  I'm guessing Clinton/Rubo myself with Clinton eating his lunch right outta his Power Ranger lunch box.

Just a couple of things - there really aren't many moderate Republicans out there, and most would stay home in a Hillary vs Trump situation.  Independents would go with Clinton.

I can't wrap my brain around a Trump nomination, never mind a Trump presidency.  But part of me thinks it would be better than a Cruz presidency.  Trump would probably pick a fairly sane moderate as a running mate, and then would probably be impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors within months of inauguration day.  Cruz might have more time to do far more damage to the country.  Can you imagine the Supreme Court picks?   

Trump vs Sanders - While I think Democrats will eventually settle on Hillary, how sweet would it be to have a Democratic Socialist as POTUS?   

But for his age, I think Bernie would handily beat Cruz and possibly little boy Rubio. I've heard a lot of people say they are voting for Hillary because Bernie is too old.   Lots of people remember that Reagan had dementia by the time he left office (of course, many of us we're sure he'd had it all along).

Shame Obama has to be put out to pasture at 55.  He's been the best president of my lifetime and I'm nearly as old as he.

 

 

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Bernie actually polls better than Hillary against most of the Republicans. Just a thing to keep in mind.

If Bloomberg runs as an independent, he will just have handed over the presidency to the Republicans. It would be an abject disaster.

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I really don't think Hillary will get the nom. She is just... not meshing well with the younger demographic that she's so desperately trying to hang on to. And there is much more dirt attached to the Clinton name then prestige. Not even because of her shithead husband but also because of her fumbles in the media recently. Bernie though, he's really ruminating on college campuses, even conservative ones. The flashiness of Hillary's campaign (the whole "I want to be as good of president as beyonce is a performer" and "girls run the world" shit) seems forced with a lot of young voters. I think Sanders has a good chance of getting the nom and even winning the election if Trump gets the republican nom.

Now... I swore up and down that Rubio would get the republican nom but now I'm not so sure! Everyone seems to be convinced that Trump will get it and I'm terrified! Do you guys really think he'll get it? Maybe I'm in denial about it lol!

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On 28/01/2016 at 9:56 PM, Sundaymorning said:

Especially with the Republican front-runner candidates who are simply insane.

Following on from this quote and adding a bit of thread drift: are these really the best candidates that the parties had to offer? Are there people who aren't running for president who should be (or at least would be better options?). And if so why not? Does it come down to money/old boys club/...? or are the parties just sort of imploding on themselves and churning out crap 'leaders'?

I'm not from the US so I don't really understand all the ins and outs of your guys presidential race (it has always seemed a bit weird/insane to me).

 

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On 1/30/2016 at 10:23 PM, sisterwives said:

I really don't think Hillary will get the nom. She is just... not meshing well with the younger demographic that she's so desperately trying to hang on to. And there is much more dirt attached to the Clinton name then prestige. Not even because of her shithead husband but also because of her fumbles in the media recently. Bernie though, he's really ruminating on college campuses, even conservative ones. The flashiness of Hillary's campaign (the whole "I want to be as good of president as beyonce is a performer" and "girls run the world" shit) seems forced with a lot of young voters. I think Sanders has a good chance of getting the nom and even winning the election if Trump gets the republican nom.

Now... I swore up and down that Rubio would get the republican nom but now I'm not so sure! Everyone seems to be convinced that Trump will get it and I'm terrified! Do you guys really think he'll get it? Maybe I'm in denial about it lol!

As a millennial, we see right through this shit from Hillary. We care about ACTION, not flashy signs and memes and talking about Beyonce. Even though we really love Beyonce. Bernie is talking a huge game about giving us things we actually want: a better future. We don't want to be saddled with debt in order to even be considered in the workforce, we don't want to have to raise a family on the current minimum wage (even if we do go to college), and if something happens to us, we don't want to add skyrocketing medical bills on top of the student loan debt we will be paying off for decades.

Hillary isn't offering much of that except being almost as big of a spectacle as Trump. Just not as racist or sexist or homophobic. I'd rather have a guy who is honest and really cares about the way the country is headed than a campaign that looks like the Superbowl Halftime Show.

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Huck just quit the race.  Maybe he can stop swing by and pick up Smuggar from rehab on his way home.

As much as I'd love to believe Bernie could win, regardless of what happens tonight, I think Clinton the establishment candidate will prevail in the end.  She'll have the money and the power brokers behind her. 

There's a real question whether Cruz can legally be on the ballot.   It is not as settled a matter as he claims.  And while he claims his mother was a US born American citizen when he was born in Canada, I've read that she voted in a Canadian election a few years after he was born.  If true, she must have been a Canadian citizen at that time.  When did she become one?  This will become a bigger issue now that Cruz has won in Iowa.

This raises an interesting question for those insane birthers who insisted Obama was not legally president because he was born in Kenya.  :my_rolleyes:.   His mother was clearly born in Kansas and an American citizen. So if it doesn't matter that Cruz wasn't born in the US, why did it ever matter where Obama himself was born??

 

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Question: how are the delegates in Iowa distributed? As in, does the candidate who wins a county get all the delegates of this county, or how does this work? I've tried looking around the internet, but I haven't really found anything.

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1 minute ago, Mela99 said:

NOW will Trump go away!? Please!? Can my therapy sessions go back to real problems and not my fear of him?

I think you can focus your therapy sessions now on Cruz. I for one actually think that he is way scarier than Trump. Trump is an opportunist who will say whatever will get him attention and outrage, but Cruz is a true fanatic. Those are usually worse.

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1 minute ago, Sundaymorning said:

I think you can focus your therapy sessions now on Cruz. I for one actually think that he is way scarier than Trump. Trump is an opportunist who will say whatever will get him attention and outrage, but Cruz is a true fanatic. Those are usually worse.

I don't disagree Cruz is scary but the idea of a CIC with no political experience, no foreign policy experience, and a big mouth scares me more. Trump will start world war III. 

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1 minute ago, Mela99 said:

I don't disagree Cruz is scary but the idea of a CIC with no political experience, no foreign policy experience, and a big mouth scares me more. Trump will start world war III. 

Trump is actually not really big on nation building and such. I think Cruz would be worse in that aspect. Trump does have a big mouth, but his foreign policy seems to be quite sensible compared to those war-loving nutjobs like Cruz. http://ontheissues.org/2016/Donald_Trump_Foreign_Policy.htm

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Honestly, my hope is a Rubio/sanders race. I wish Omalley had had more traction but he doesn't seem to be extreme enough. Huckabee is gone? Finally! I suspect more will drop out after New Hampshire. Anyone who is not trump( as much as it pains me), Rubio, or Cruz needs to leave. The rest are just muddying the waters. 

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WOW do you guys see how close the caucus is for the dems right now?!?!? Poor O'Malley lol (who is actually a pretty respectable guy, his policy on giving undocumented immigrants who entered the US as children instate college tuition gives me hope) but Sanders and Hillary are LITERALLY fractions of a point apart. My god.

ETA: and Lmao at Hillary claiming victory as if it was a landslide. Iowa has not even declared a winner yet.

8 hours ago, sophie10130 said:

As a millennial, we see right through this shit from Hillary. We care about ACTION, not flashy signs and memes and talking about Beyonce. Even though we really love Beyonce. Bernie is talking a huge game about giving us things we actually want: a better future. We don't want to be saddled with debt in order to even be considered in the workforce, we don't want to have to raise a family on the current minimum wage (even if we do go to college), and if something happens to us, we don't want to add skyrocketing medical bills on top of the student loan debt we will be paying off for decades.

Hillary isn't offering much of that except being almost as big of a spectacle as Trump. Just not as racist or sexist or homophobic. I'd rather have a guy who is honest and really cares about the way the country is headed than a campaign that looks like the Superbowl Halftime Show.

Yes! Hillary is all about theatrics right now. Her memes are not a cute look and combining that with her shaky history in power isn't doing her any favors. I really thought that Sanders would have no chance to get this nom in the earlier months of this election but things are really shaking up and Iowa has proved this.

Edited by sisterwives
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9 hours ago, Mela99 said:

I don't disagree Cruz is scary but the idea of a CIC with no political experience, no foreign policy experience, and a big mouth scares me more. Trump will start world war III. 

Cruz scares me more than anyone on a pure level because 1) I see no possibility of the Donald securing the nomination and 2) if by some strange chance he did, and by an even stranger chance he beats Clinton or Sanders, he will not play by any rules and I would bet he would end up impeached very quickly.  And I'd bet he picks a sane VP because I'm not sure the guy isn't just doing this for a laugh.  He's probably bored with his life.  Nothing to work for.

Cruz is likely not electable in the general election, but if some scandal were to bring down the Democrat just before the election, he would be a truly terrifying president.

I think the Republicans and Democrats will both end up with what the mainstream media portrays as the most electable candidates, Rubio and Clinton.  Can't stand either one of them, but we'd be better off with Clinton and at least we'd end up with left leaning Supreme Court justices.  And that's a huge issue because those suckers stay around until they're 102.   

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